The joint effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation on tropical Indian Ocean heat flux during boreal winter

Abstract

In this study, the joint effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) on winter net surface heat flux (Qnet) anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) are investigated for the 1979/1980–2017/2018 period. The results show that, in multisource datasets, the Qnet pattern for El Niño plus positive AO cases is the most robust. The major feature of Qnet is dominated by a significant dipole pattern, with oceanic heat gain anomalies appearing over the southeastern TIO and oceanic heat loss near the western TIO. Analysis of the flux components shows that the Qnet anomalies are mainly contributed by changes in latent heat flux and shortwave radiation (QLHF and QSWR), which are tightly associated with the regional atmospheric and oceanic conditions. In association with positive AO, northerly wind anomalies on the eastern flanks of a low-level anomalous anticyclone in the Arabian Sea enhance the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in the western TIO. Meanwhile, the El Niño-related SST warming occurs in the western TIO. Both enhanced ITCZ and anomalous SST warming favour in situ increased low and middle cloud cover and a reduced QSWR. Furthermore, under El Niño's effect, a low-level anomalous anticyclone located in the southeastern TIO leads to a positive QLHF through decreased near-surface wind speed and increased near-surface air humidity. As a result, a dipole Qnet pattern tends to be observed for the combination of El Niño and positive AO.