Western Pacific Subtropical High Research Articles

Uniformly elevated future heat stress in China driven by spatially heterogeneous water vapor changes

The wet bulb temperature (Tw) has gained considerable attention as a crucial indicator of heat-related health risks. Here we report south-to-north spatially heterogeneous trends of Tw in China over 1979-2018. We find that actual water vapor pressure (Ea) changes play a dominant role in determining the different trend of Tw in southern and northern China, which is attributed to the faster warming of high-latitude regions of East Asia as a response to climate change. This warming effect regulates large-scale atmospheric features and leads to extended impacts of the South Asia high (SAH) and the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) over southern China and to suppressed moisture transport. Attribution analysis using climate model simulations confirms these findings. We further find that the entire eastern China, that accommodates 94% of the country’s population, is likely to experience widespread and uniform elevated thermal stress the end of this century. Our findings highlight the necessity for development of adaptation measures in eastern China to avoid adverse impacts of heat stress, suggesting similar implications for other regions as well.

Asymmetric responses of summer soil moisture anomalies to the large-scale teleconnections on the Loess Plateau between 2000 and 2020

Soil moisture is a key regulator of hydrological cycle and is closely related to vegetation growth and climate changes, which is mainly replenished by summer precipitation on the Loess Plateau. However, the response of soil moisture content (SMC) anomalies during summer on the Loess Plateau to large-scale teleconnection remains unclear. Here, using the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) method, this study extracted a homogenized area with significant variability of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) (p<0.01), which was called sensitive areas for vegetation restoration (SAVR) of the Loess Plateau. Based on 1 km daily soil moisture dataset named SMCI1.0 at top 1 m, we demonstrated that there was an interannual fluctuation of summer SMC from 2000 to 2020 over the SAVR of the Loess Plateau. Spatially, SMC during summer in the SAVR of the Loess Plateau exhibited an enhanced regional difference characterized by ‘dry to drier and wet to wetter’. Importantly, abnormal SMC during summer in the SAVR of the Loess Plateau can been attributed to distinct circulation pattern and anomalous water vapor transport, which showed asymmetrical distributions between positive and negative anomalous years of summer SMC. Due to the activities of western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and low-pressure system around the Lake Baikal (an anomalous anticyclone prevailed over the western north Pacific), the positive (negative) anomalous years of summer SMC witnessed net water vapor influx (outflux) anomalies to the Loess Plateau compared to the climatology, corresponding to anomalous upward (sinking) motions, further leading to more (less) SMC in summer over the SAVR of the Loess Plateau, respectively. The conclusions of this study have implications for excavating early warning information of SMC anomalies and natural restoration sustainable management on the Loess Plateau.

Increasing Risk of a “Hot Eastern‐Pluvial Western” Asia

AbstractObservations have revealed that the deadly “hot eastern‐pluvial western” climate pattern in Asia in summer 2022 is by no means an exception. In recent decade this pattern is becoming much more frequent owing to the notable westward extension and enhancement of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH). The anomalously enhanced WPSH fills the gap in geopotential heights between the Arabian Sea‐Iranian Plateau and the western Pacific, produces a heat dome over eastern Asia and intensifies the moisture convergence over western Asia by changing the water vapor transportation path. Projections of 19 CMIP6 models show that both the temperature in eastern Asia and precipitation in western Asia will remarkably increase under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2‐4.5, SSP 3‐7.0, and SSP 5‐8.5 scenarios, with temperature anomalies 0.8°C, 1.5°C, and 2.4°C higher and the percentages of precipitation anomaly 6.3%, 9.4%, and 12.5% larger than the reference period in the near, middle, and long terms under the moderate emission scenario (SSP2‐4.5). Therefore, the “hot eastern‐pluvial western” Asia is becoming a new normal and exacerbating the risk of compound disasters.

Spatiotemporal Evolution Features of the 2022 Compound Hot and Drought Event over the Yangtze River Basin

A rare compound hot and drought (CHD) event occurred in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) in the summer of 2022, which brought serious social crisis and ecological disaster. The analysis of the causes, spatiotemporal characteristics and impacts of this event is of great significance and value for future drought warning and mitigation. We used the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)/GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO) data, meteorological data, hydrological data and satellite remote sensing data to discuss the spatiotemporal evolution, formation mechanism and the influence of the CHD event. The results show that the drought severity caused by the CHD event was the most severe during 2003 and 2022. The CHD event lasted a total of five months (from July to November), and there were variations in the damage in different sub-basins. The Wu River Basin (WRB) is the region where the CHD event lasted the longest, at six months (from July to December), while it also lasted four or five months in all the other basins. Among them, the WRB, Dongting Lake Rivers Basin (DLRB) and Mainstream of the YRB (MSY) are the three most affected basins, whose hot and drought severity values are 7.750 and −8.520 (WRB), 7.105 and −9.915 (DLRB) and 6.232 and −9.143 (MSY), respectively. High temperature and low precipitation are the direct causes of the CHD event, and the underlying causes behind this event are the triple La Niña and negative Indian Ocean Dipole event. The two extreme climate events made the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) unusually strong, and then the WPSH covered a more northerly and westerly region than in previous years and remained entrenched for a long period of time over the YRB and its adjacent regions. Moreover, this CHD event had a devastating impact on local agricultural production and seriously disrupted daily life and production. Our results have implications for the study of extreme disaster events.

Joint Impacts of the North African and the Western Pacific subtropical highs on summer precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau

Abstract Focusing on summer precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), this study mainly investigates the joint impacts of the North African and the Western Pacific subtropical highs (i.e., NASH and WPSH) through examining circulation and moisture anomalies. Results show that there are several boundary combination types of the two subtropical highs. The anomalous vertical motion with sufficient moisture transport under different boundary types plays the dominant role in TP precipitation anomaly. When the WPSH strengthens westward approaching to the TP, it can transport water vapor northward from Northwest Pacific and North Indian Oceans to the south edge of the TP and induce ascending motion over the southeastern TP, contributing to more precipitation there. When the NASH enhances and extends eastward, it can transport water vapor eastward from North Atlantic Ocean to the southwest eastern TP and give rise to ascending motion there, inducing positive precipitation anomaly over the southwest eastern TP. When the two subtropical highs simultaneously intensify and extend to the TP, water vapor can be transported to the TP widely from the North Atlantic Ocean, the North Indian Ocean and the northwest Pacific Ocean with the strengthening of the westerly, resulting in the location of the ascending motion and rain belt shifting obviously northward. Further analyses indicate that the pre-winter ENSO and summer North Atlantic air–sea interaction are two indispensable possible modulation factors for the joint impact of the two subtropical highs on TP precipitation.

Spatio-temporal patterns of intense tropical cyclones in the Western North Pacific over the past 1600 years

There are concerns that intense tropical cyclones (TCs) are expected to become more frequent and powerful in warming climates. However, the long-term trend of TC activities, the spatiotemporal variability of such trends across different latitudes of the Western North Pacific (WNP), and the drives of the variability remain unclear. Here, we present a reconstruction of a 1600-year paleo-TCs activity using a sediment core taken in Li’an Lagoon located in southeastern Hainan Island, South China Sea. We used muti-dating methods (210Pb and AMS 14C dating) for age control and muti-proxy analysis (XRF geochemical element scanning and grain size analysis) for identifying periods of frequent intense TC activities. Based on an updated compilation of basin-wide paleo-TC records, we confirm that there exists a seesaw pattern of intense TC frequency between low and middle latitude in the WNP. Comparing with global and regional paleoclimate proxies, we propose that the basin-wide latitudinal TC activity variation in the WNP can be linked to the migration of Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) and its associated high-latitude forcings (e.g., NAO) and low-latitude internal variability forcings (i.e., El Niño Southern Oscillation, sea surface temperature (SST)). More intense TC will occur at low latitudes in the future, though with less frequency.

Connection between Barents Sea Ice in May and Early Summer Monsoon Rainfall in the South China Sea and Its Possible Mechanism

The impacts of Arctic sea ice on climate in middle and high latitudes have been extensively studied. However, its effects on climate in low latitudes, particularly on summer monsoon rainfall in the South China Sea (SCS), have received limited attention. Thus, this study investigates the connection between the Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) anomaly and the early summer monsoon rainfall (ESMR) in the SCS and its underlying physical mechanism. The results reveal a significant positive correlation between the Barents Sea (BS) SIC in May and the ESMR in the SCS. When there is more (less) SIC in the Barents Sea (BS) during May, this results in a positive (negative) anomaly of the local turbulent heat flux, which lasts until June. This, in turn, excites an upward (downward) air motion anomaly in the vicinity of the BS, causing a corresponding downward (upward) motion anomaly over the Black Sea. Consequently, this triggers a wave train similar to the Eurasian (SEU) teleconnection, propagating eastward towards East Asia. The SEU further leads to an (a) upward (downward) motion anomaly and weakens (strengthens) the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) over the SCS, which is accompanied by a southwest adequate (scarce) water vapor anomaly transporting from the Indian Ocean, resulting in more (less) precipitation in the SCS. Furthermore, the response of ESMR in the SCS to the SIC in the BS is further verified by using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.3 (CAM5.3). This study introduces novel precursor factors that influence the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM), presenting a new insight for climate prediction in this region, which holds significant implications.

Variations of surface marine heatwaves in the Northwest Pacific during 1993–2019

Parameters of surface marine heatwaves (MHWs) in the Northwest Pacific during 1993–2019 are derived from two sea surface temperature (SST) products: the Optimum Interpolation SST based on satellite remote sensing (OISST V2.1) and the Global Ocean Physics Reanalysis based on data-assimilative global ocean model (GLORYS12V1). Similarities and differences between the MHW parameters derived from the two datasets are identified. The spatial distributions of the mean annual MHW total days, frequency, duration, mean intensity and cumulative intensity, and interannual variations of these parameters are generally similar, while the MHW total days and duration from GLORYS12V1 are usually higher than that from OISST V2.1. Based on seasonal-mean values from GLORYS12V1, longer MHW total days (&amp;gt;7) have the largest spatial coverage in both the shelf and deep waters in summer, while the smallest coverage in spring. In selected representative regions, interannual variations of the MHW total days are positively correlated with the SST anomalies. In summer, the MHW total days have positive correlations with the Western Pacific Subtropical High intensity, and negative correlations with the East Asia Monsoon intensity, over nearly the whole South China Sea (SCS) and the low-latitude Pacific. In winter, positive correlations with both the Subtropical High and Monsoon intensities present over the western part of SCS. Strong El Niño is followed by longer MHW total days over the western half of SCS in winter, and over the whole SCS and low-latitude Pacific in summer of the next year. These correlation relationships are valuable for developing forecasts of MHWs in the region.

Hydroclimate variability over the past 4730 years based on multi-proxy stalagmite records from southwest China

Southwest China has experienced a series of record-breaking droughts over the last two decades, threatening regional ecosystems and exerting socioeconomic effects. Recent studies have focused on the drivers of specific drought events that seasonally vary in occurrence and duration, and a better understanding of regional paleo-records may be key to understanding their underlying mechanisms. Here, we present records of dry and wet alterations from 4730 yr B.P. based on multi-proxy stalagmite records. In particular, we report δ13C records at a five-year-resolution, and trace element (Mg, Sr, and Ba) to Ca ratios at a 25-year-resolution for stalagmite HD12 from Dark Cave, southwest China. Statistically significant correlations between δ13C and Mg/Ca suggest that they are controlled by a common factor, possibly related to local hydrological variations associated with the monsoon circulation. Long-term trends in the Sr/Ca and Ba/Ca ratios may be related to temperature- and/or precipitation-controlled growth rates. The first principal component (multi-proxy PC1) of δ13C and Mg/Ca can be used as the hydrological index in southwest China, indicating high-frequency oscillations on the millennial to multidecadal scales, with four prominent dry periods at 4255 ± 21 to 3430 ± 11, 2605 ± 12 to 2105 ± 9, 1755 ± 11 to 1255 ± 13, and 705 ± 8 to 405 ± 7 yr B.P. This is in general agreement with the monsoon index reconstructed from the detrended and z-scored cave δ18O PC1 in southwest China, indicating the sensitivity of regional hydrological response to monsoon intensity. The dry conditions of southwest China on the millennial-centennial scale may be related to solar forcing and the North Atlantic Oscillation owing to their influence on the strength and position of the westerlies and the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Additionally, the El Niño Southern Oscillation could also affect water vapor transport to southwest China by influencing the strength and position of the Walker circulation and Western Pacific Subtropical High. Moreover, the dry periods of southwest China over the past 4730 years are closely related to the warming of the sea surface temperature of the tropical warm pool on multidecadal scales. Such warming may be detrimental to the transport of water vapor from the North Western Pacific and Indian Ocean to southwest China, resulting in a dry regional environment.

The Applicability of the Drought Index and Analysis of Spatiotemporal Evolution Mechanisms of Drought in the Poyang Lake Basin

Poyang Lake, the largest freshwater lake in China, is an important regional water resource and a landmark ecosystem. In recent years, it has experienced a period of prolonged drought. Using appropriate drought indices to describe the drought characteristics of the Poyang Lake Basin (PLB) is of great practical significance in the face of severe drought situations. This article explores the applicability of four drought indices (including the precipitation anomaly index (PJP), standardized precipitation index (SPI), China Z-index (CPZI), and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI)) based on historical facts. A systematic study was conducted on the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of meteorological drought in the PLB based on the optimal drought index. The results show that SPI is more suitable for the description of drought characteristics in the PLB. Meteorological droughts occur frequently in the summer and autumn in the PLB, with the frequency of mild drought being 17.29% and 16.88%, respectively. The impact range of severe drought or worse reached 22.19% and 28.33% of the entire basin, respectively. The probability of drought occurrence in the PLB shows an increasing trend in spring, while in most areas, it shows a decreasing trend in other seasons, with only a slight increase in the upper reaches of the Ganjiang River (UGR). One of the important factors influencing drought in the PLB is atmospheric circulation. The abnormal variation of the Western Pacific Subtropical High was one of the key factors contributing to the severe drought in the PLB in 2022. This study is based on a long-term series of meteorological data and selects the drought index for the PLB. It describes the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and evolution patterns of drought and investigates the developmental path and influencing factors of drought in typical years. This study provides a reliable scientific basis for similar watershed water resource management.

Impacts of El Niño diversity on East Asian summertime precipitation extremes

AbstractThis study examines the impacts of Eastern Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP) El Niño on summertime extreme precipitation over East Asia during the El Niño decay phase. The findings reveal distinct patterns of extreme precipitation for the two El Niño types. During EP El Niño, more intense extreme precipitation occurs over south of the Yangtze River (SYR), while suppressed extremes are observed over Mei-Yu rainband in China, Baiu in Japan, and Changma in South Korea (MBC). Conversely, CP El Niño leads to weaker (stronger) extreme precipitation over SYR (MBC). This study also differentiates between tropical cyclone (TC) and non-TC related precipitation, showing that TCs have minimal influence on the overall extreme precipitation compared to non-TC related events. Further investigation reveals that EP and CP El Niño distinctly influence atmospheric circulation patterns, thereby causing different distributions of non-TC extreme precipitation. Specifically, during EP El Niño, sea surface temperature (SST) warming signals in the tropical Indian Ocean induce the southward displacement of the South Asia High (SAH), westerly jet (WJ), and Western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH). This amplifies moisture flux convergence, elevating the likelihood of intense extreme precipitation over SYR. Conversely, MBC experiences moisture flux divergence, resulting in fewer precipitation extremes. During CP El Niño, SST warming signals in the Maritime Continent prompt the northward shift of SAH, WJ, and WPSH by modulating local Hadley circulations. These anomalies lead to strengthened moisture convergence (divergence) over MBC (SYR), consequently resulting in a higher (lower) likelihood of intense extreme precipitation over MBC (SYR).

Influence of meridional circulation on extreme high temperature and weakened rainfall over the Yangtze River Valley in August 2022

The Yangtze River Valley (YRV) experienced record-breaking extreme high temperature and weakened rainfall events in August 2022, which resulted in severe disasters and large socioeconomic losses. The importance of the intensification and westward movement of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) with abnormal subsidence has been emphasized in previous studies. However, the source of the abnormal subsidence remains unknown. This study investigates the source of the abnormal subsidence over the YRV and discusses its possible causes by adopting the three-pattern decomposition of the atmospheric circulation (3P-DGAC). Meridional circulation (MC) was the main contributor to the abnormal vertical velocity (114%), while the contribution of zonal circulation (ZC) was negative (–14%). Additionally, the negative rainfall anomaly over the YRV can be explained mainly by the MC. The anomalous MC was characterized as a ‘negative-positive-negative-positive-negative’ quintuple distribution with sinking motion over the YRV. Anomalous MC is closely related to the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) over the three oceans. The negative phase of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) and La Niña SSTA leads to an anomalous rising motion of the ZC over the Maritime Continent, favoring the existence of the rising motion of the MC by the coupling effect. The positive phase of the North Atlantic triple (NAT) SSTA results in an anomalous Rossby wave train, which further leads to a sinking motion over the YRV.

Magnetic Fingerprints for the Paleoenvironmental Evolutions Since the Last Deglaciation: Evidence From the Northwestern South China Sea Sediments

AbstractRapid global changes since the last deglaciation can be well documented in marginal sea sediments, while isolating individual paleoenvironmental signals is still challenging. Here, we identified magnetic minerals and unmixed their variations in sediments from the northwestern South China Sea to decipher environmental variations since the last deglaciation. The variation in the hematite to goethite ratio indicates a relatively drier mid‐Holocene and a wetter early and late Holocene in the Red River catchment. The position shift and intensity variation of Western Pacific Subtropical High may account for the Holocene precipitation changes. A higher chemical weathering intensity accompanied by a relatively more fine‐grained magnetite input during the last deglaciation suggests decoupling of the Asian Summer Monsoon and chemical weathering in the catchment, which might have been caused by the shelf exposure during the deglaciation. In addition, the relative abundance of biogenic magnetite increased with the sea level and possible deep‐water temperature rise. Therefore, magnetic minerals such as hematite, goethite, detrital and biogenic magnetite are markedly potential fingerprints for continent‐ocean environmental changes.

Intensified gradient La Niña and extra-tropical thermal patterns drive the 2022 East and South Asian “Seesaw” extremes

In July and August 2022, a notable “seesaw” extreme pattern emerged, characterized by the “Yangtze River Valley (YRV) drought” juxtaposed with the “Indus Basin (IB) flood”, leading to enormous economic and human losses. We observed that the “seesaw” extreme pattern concurs with the second-strongest sea surface temperature (SST) gradient between the equatorial central and western Pacific caused by the triple-dip La Niña and western Pacific warming. The convergent statistical and numerical evidence suggested that the enhanced SST gradients tend to amplify the western Pacific convection and the descending Rossby responses to the La Niña cooling, promoting the “seesaw” extreme pattern through the westward expansion of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH). Further investigation demonstrated that the magnitude of the YRV surface temperature and IB rainfall exhibited a reversed change from July to August. The persistent cooling of the southern Indian Ocean induced by the triple-dip La Niña increases the cross-equatorial moisture transport, which played a significant role in the record-breaking IB rainfall during July. By contrast, the historic YRV surface temperature occurred in August with a decrease in IB rainfall. The Barents-Kara Sea warming extended the downstream impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation via local air-sea interaction that enhanced the WPSH and the YRV extreme surface temperature by emanating an equatorward teleconnection wave train. The overlay of the tropical thermal conditions and extra-tropical forcings largely aggravated the severity of the “YRV drought and IB flood”.

Analysis and comparison of water vapor transport features and circulation anomalies during the super-strong Meiyu period of 2020 and 1998*

2020 and 1998 are the strongest Meiyu years in recent decades. The characteristics of the super-strong Meiyu precipitation and water vapor sources in 2020 and 1998 were compared, and the atmospheric circulation anomalies and the forcing factor SST were examined. (1) In 2020, the Meiyu duration, accumulated precipitation, and number of rainstorm days were greater than in 1998, and the highest since 1961. The Meiyu period in 2020 experienced 11 rainstorm processes. In 1998, a typical “second Meiyu” phenomenon occurred, and the area of heavy rainfall in 1998 was located further southward than that in 2020 (2) The contribution of the Bay of Bengal-South China Sea (BOB-SCS) to the total supply of water vapor in 2020 and 1998 was 43.0% and 42.0%, respectively, i.e., much higher than that of the climatological mean (25.5%). In 2020, the sources that provide most water vapor were the BOB, SCS, and central Pacific Ocean, while in 1998 were the Arabian Sea, BOB, and the western Pacific Ocean. (3) During the Meiyu period in 2020 and 1998, the position of atmospheric circulation pattern “two ridges and one trough” are different. Analysis of the vertical structure revealed that the specific humidity intensity above the area of heavy rainfall in 1998 was weaker than that in 2020, and the low-level convergence zone was further south and not as strong as in 2020. The positions of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and the western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC) in 1998 were both further south than those in 2020, which resulted in the more southerly locations of the southwesterly jet stream and rain belt. It should be pointed out that, the important contributions of the SST anomalies in the equatorial central eastern Pacific and the tropical Indian Ocean to the anomalous WNPAC in 1998 and 2020, respectively.

Interaction between the Westerlies and Asian Monsoons in the Middle Latitudes of China: Review and Prospect

The westerly circulation and the monsoon circulation are the two major atmospheric circulation systems affecting the middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (NH), which have significant impacts on climate and environmental changes in the middle latitudes. However, until now, people’s understanding of the long-term paleoenvironmental changes in the westerly- and monsoon-controlled areas in China’s middle latitudes is not uniform, and the phase relationship between the two at different time scales is also controversial, especially the exception to the “dry gets drier, wet gets wetter” paradigm in global warming between the two. Based on the existing literature data published, integrated paleoenvironmental records, and comprehensive simulation results in recent years, this study systematically reviews the climate and environmental changes in the two major circulation regions in the mid-latitudes of China since the Middle Pleistocene, with a focus on exploring the phase relationship between the two systems at different time scales and its influencing mechanism. Through the reanalysis and comparative analysis of the existing data, we conclude that the interaction and relationship between the two circulation systems are relatively strong and close during the warm periods, but relatively weak during the cold periods. From the perspective of orbital, suborbital, and millennium time scales, the phase relationship between the westerly and Asian summer monsoon (ASM) circulations shows roughly in-phase, out-of-phase, and anti-phase transitions, respectively. There are significant differences between the impacts of the westerly and ASM circulations on the middle-latitude regions of northwest China, the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, and eastern China. However, under the combined influence of varied environmental factors such as BHLSR (boreal high-latitude solar radiation), SST (sea surface temperature), AMOC (north Atlantic meridional overturning circulation), NHI (Northern Hemisphere ice volume), NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), ITCZ (intertropical convergence zone), WPSH (western Pacific subtropical high), TIOA (tropical Indian Ocean anomaly), ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation), CGT/SRP (global teleconnection/Silk Road pattern), etc., there is a complex and close coupling relationship between the two, and it is necessary to comprehensively consider their “multi-factor’s joint-action” mechanism and impact, while, in general, the dynamic mechanisms driving the changes of the westerly and ASM circulations are not the same at different time scales, such as orbital, suborbital, centennial to millennium, and decadal to interannual, which also leads to the formation of different types of phase relationships between the two at different time scales. Future studies need to focus on the impact of this “multi-factor linkage mechanism” and “multi-phase relationship” in distinguishing the interaction between the westerly and ASM circulation systems in terms of orbital, suborbital, millennium, and sub-millennium time scales.

Extended-Range Forecast of Winter Rainfall in the Yangtze River Delta Based on Intra-Seasonal Oscillation of Atmospheric Circulations

The Yangtze River Delta (YRD) is an important economic region in China. Heavy winter rainfall may pose serious threats to city operations. To ensure the safe operation of the city, meteorological departments need to provide forecast results for the Spring Festival travel rush weather service. Therefore, the extended-range forecast of winter rainfall is of considerable importance. To solve this problem, based on the analysis of low-frequency rainfall and the intra-seasonal oscillation of atmospheric circulation, an extended-range forecast model for winter rainfall is developed using spatiotemporal projection methods and is applied to a case study from 2020. The results show that: (1) The precipitation in the YRD during the winter has a significant intra-seasonal oscillation (ISO) with a periodicity of 10–30 d. (2) The atmospheric circulations associated with winter rainfall in the YRD have a significant characteristic of low-frequency oscillation. From a 30-day to a 0-day lead, large modifications appear in the low-frequency atmospheric circulations at low, mid, and high latitudes. At low latitudes, strong wet convective activity characterized by a negative OLR combined with a positive RH700 correlation coefficient moves northwestward and covers the entire YRD. Meanwhile, the Western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) characterized by a positive Z500 anomaly enhances and lifts northward. At mid and high latitudes, the signal of negatively correlated Z500 northwest of Lake Balkhash propagates southeastward, indicating the cold is air moving southward. Multiple circulation factors combine together and lead to the precipitation process in the YRD. (3) Taking the intra-seasonal dynamical evolution process of the atmospheric circulation as the prediction factor, the spatiotemporal method is used to build the model for winter mean extended-range precipitation anomaly tendency in the YRD. The hindcast for the recent 10 years shows that the ensemble model has a higher skill that can reach up to 20 days. In particular, the skill of the eastern part of the YRD can reach 25 days. (4) The rainfall in the 2019/2020 winter has a significant ISO. The ensemble model could forecast the most extreme precipitation for 20 days ahead.

Photochemical pollution during summertime in a coastal city of Southeast China: Ozone formation and influencing factors

Surface ozone (O3) has a significant impact on the air quality, and its concentrations have been increasing despite a distinct decrease in fine particulate matter (PM2.5) since 2013 in China. However, the formation mechanisms of photochemical O3 pollution in coastal regions are not fully understood. Therefore, an intensive field observation was conducted from July 8th to August 4th 2022 in Xiamen of Southeast China, combining with the observation-based model to reveal the formation and influencing factors of photochemical O3 pollution affected by the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH). Results indicate that O3 pollution episodes were characterized by higher air temperature, lower relative humidity, lower wind speed, and higher concentrations of precursors (including volatile organic compounds (VOCs), NOx, and CO) compared with non-pollution episodes (p < 0.05). Stronger atmospheric oxidation capacity (AOC), OH reactivity, and ROx production rates during the O3 pollution episodes led to the remarkable increases in O3. Additionally, the photolysis of HCHO and other carbonyl compounds (48.6%), as well as O3 photolysis (41.3%) contributed the largest to ROx radical production, promoting the rapid formation of O3 during the pollution episodes. Reducing VOC concentrations not only decreased the net O3 production rates and AOC, but also weakened ROx self-reactions (Self-Rxns). Notably, Self-Rxns were weakened when the reduction percentage of NOx was from 10% to 20%, but decreasing NOx concentrations intensified Self-Rxns in other reduction percentages of NOx. This study provides a better understanding of photochemical O3 pollution mechanisms under the synoptic situation controlled by the WPSH, as well as the urgency of VOC reductions in the rapid development of coastal regions.

Circulation patterns in the middle and upper troposphere and their relationships with summer precipitation in the Jianghuai River Basin

AbstractThe upper and lower‐level circulations can be divided into four distinct modes based on ERA5 daily reanalysis data. The impact of these patterns on the summer persistent precipitation (SPP) in the Jianghuai River Basin (JRB) is investigated, with the ‘−SR (Silk Road)/+EAP (East Asia‐Pacific)’ mode identified as the most favourable for triggering SPP. The main manifestations are as follows: (1) From 1981 to 2020, 29.4% (30.7%) of extreme precipitation days (the frequencies of persistent extreme precipitation) are related to the ‘−SR/+EAP’ mode, indicating the importance of the ‘−SR/+EAP’ mode to the SPP in the JRB. (2) The ‘−SR’ pattern accelerates the westerly jet, leading to strong divergence over the JRB. Concurrently, the eastward movement of the South Asia High and westward shift of the Western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) create conditions favourable for SPP in the JRB. (3) Abundant water vapour, facilitated by strong moisture convergence and upward motion, significantly contributes to SPP in the JRB.

Who is the major player for 2022 China extreme heat wave? Western Pacific Subtropical high or South Asian high?

A long-lasting, wide-ranging, and record-breaking extreme high-temperature (EHT) event hit China in the summer of 2022, causing adverse impacts on electricity supply, agriculture, and people's livelihoods. The abnormal persistence of the eastward-shifted South Asian high (SAH) in the upper troposphere was the dominant driver of the durative enhancement of EHT and can explain approximately 55.7% of the event's occurrence, compared to the 14.5% contribution of western Pacific Subtropical high (WPSH) to this event. As the SAH extends eastward, the East Asian westerly jet tends to shift northward, the combination of which could have caused persistent descending motion over East China and thus evoked the EHT. The eastward shift of the SAH in summer 2022 was jointly affected by the preceding-spring record-low snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau, the contemporaneous record-low aerosol levels in East China, the record-high precipitation of Indian subcontinent and the record-high sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic since 1990. Notably, during 1990–2022, for the 2022-like EHT, only 38.43% of that is related to the couple of westward-shifting WPSH and eastward-extending SAH. Approximately 47.6% of 2022-like EHT is just corresponding to an abnormally eastward-extending SAH, suggesting the non-negligible role of SAH in the China's EHT prediction.