Western Pacific Subtropical High Research Articles

The 2022 record-breaking high temperature in China: Sub-seasonal stepwise enhanced characteristics, possible causes and its predictability

In the summer of 2022, an unprecedented and long-lasting high temperature swept central-eastern China, causing significant societal effects. However, the sub-seasonal characteristics, causes and predictability of this extreme high temperature event are not well explored. Based on the locations, intensities and causes of the high temperature, we divided it into three stages: early (13 June–3 July), sustained (4–28 July), and enhancement (29 July–30 August) stages. The high temperature during the early stage mainly occurred in north-central China with an anomaly of 2.5 °C compared with climatology (1981–2010), while the last two stages occurred in the middle and lower Yangtze River Basin with anomalies of 2.8 and 3.8 °C respectively. The high temperature during the three stages were all regulated by the strengthening and westward extension of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) but involved different physical process. In the early stage, it was mainly caused by the anticyclones over the Mongolia and Northwest Pacific and enhanced by the minor impact of WPSH. In the sustained stage it was influenced by relatively more stronger WPSH and South Asia high (SAH) and the relatively minor impact of the anticyclone over the north-western South Asia. In the enhancement stage, the high temperature was mainly caused by a combination of the record-breaking WPSH and SAH and the strong European blocking high. Inside, the exceptionally powerful WPSH was well correlated with the sea surface temperature gradient induced by the developing La Niña. The ECMWF and NCEP models reasonably predicted the location and intensity of the high temperature in the early stage, but poorly predicted that in the sustained and enhancement stages partly because of the failure prediction of the WPSH's enhancement and westward extension. The ECMWF model's more accurate prediction of the WPSH may contribute to its better forecasting of the heatwaves.

Extreme characteristics and causes of the drought event in the whole Yangtze River Basin in the midsummer of 2022

Due to their huge socio-economic impacts and complex formation causes, extreme and continuous drought events have become the focus and nodus of research in recent years. In the midsummer (July–August) of 2022, a severe drought event occurred in the whole Yangtze River Basin (YRB), China. During that period, the precipitation in the upper, middle and lower reaches of the YRB dropped over 40% less than the 1961–2021 climatic mean, which had never happened previously. Furthermore, the temperature was the highest during 1961–2022. The record-breaking magnitude of less rainfall and high temperature directly led to the continuous development of this extreme drought event. An atmospheric moisture budget analysis revealed that the YRB midsummer rainfall anomaly was dominated by the anomalous powerful vertical moisture advection, which was derived from the strongest descending motion over the whole YRB in the 2022 midsummer during 1981–2022. The western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) during the midsummer remained stronger, more westward and lasted longer than the climatic mean. As a result, the whole YRB was controlled by a positive geopotential height centre. Further evidence revealed that the anomalous subtropical zonal flow played a crucial role in inducing the extreme descent over the YRB. Moreover, the anomalous upper-tropospheric easterly flow over the YRB in 2022 is the strongest during 1981–2022, modulating the generation of the unprecedented descent anomaly over the YRB. The likelihood that an integrated connection of severe drought in East Asia and flood in West Asia and northwestern South Asia would increase when the extremely strong easterly anomalies in the upper troposphere emerged and induced descending adiabatic flow on the eastern sides of the Tibetan Plateau. The results of this study can provide scientific insights into the predictability of extreme drought events and provide ways to improve predictions.

How 2022 extreme drought influences the spatiotemporal variations of terrestrial water storage in the Yangtze River Catchment: Insights from GRACE-based drought severity index and in-situ measurements

Under global warming, extreme climatic events frequently occurred worldwide such as extreme drought and heavy flood. Analysis of drought and flood spatiotemporal evolution and physical mechanism is of great significance for future disaster warning and mitigation. In 2022, the Yangtze River Catchment (YRC) experienced an extreme drought, which profoundly affected the regional economy, ecological environment and anthropogenic activities. In this study, we quantified the spatiotemporal characteristics of terrestrial water storage anomalies (TWSA) response to this severe drought event using Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment-based drought severity index (GRACE-DSI), with the inspection of hydrological model and in-situ measurements. The results showed that the 2022 YRC drought first occurred in July at the upstream and midstream, then spread to downstream and finally occupied almost the whole YRC in August and ∼ 94% of the YRC in September. The effectiveness of GRACE-DSI for drought monitor can be validated by in-situ hydrological and meteorological observations. Good correlations among El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), precipitation anomalies (PA), and TWSA were found, demonstrating the regional atmospheric circulation anomaly was the driving factor of this extreme drought event, which triggered the changes in precipitation further to influence the pattern of terrestrial water storage. The consecutive La Niña events induced the extension of western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and Iranian high, the precipitation deficiency in 2022 summer declined by ∼ 46% and ∼ 36% compared to 2020 and 2021 respectively, which was the main cause of the extreme drought.

The north–south shift of the ridge location of the western Pacific subtropical high and its influence on the July precipitation in the Jianghuai region from 1978 to 2021

The Jianghuai region is the area between the Yangtze River and the Huai River in China and is a densely populated agriculture region therefore, the economics and human activity there are significantly affected by the precipitation changes, particularly during the summer when extreme storms and droughts normally occur. It will be helpful if the summer precipitation changes can be predicted. The monthly ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis data from 1978 to 2021 are used in this study to investigate the relationship between the ridge latitudinal location of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and the precipitation in July over the Jianghuai region. The results show that the WPSH ridge location has an important impact on the amount and spatial distribution of the precipitation in this region. When the ridge was northward, an anomalous anticyclonic circulation will appear over the western Pacific, leading to the weakening of the summer monsoon and the reduction of moisture transport from the Indian Ocean, therefore decreasing precipitation in the Jianghuai region, while the situation is opposite when the ridge was southward. The Niño 3.4 index in March and the India–Burma trough intensity index in June have significant correlations with the July WPSH ridge location, and both can be used as precursors to predict the WPSH ridge location and, therefore, the precipitation in this region.

Understanding the Forcing Mechanisms of the 1931 Summer Flood along the Yangtze River, the World’s Deadliest Flood on Record

Abstract The 1931 Yangtze River flood in eastern China, which had an associated death toll of over 2 million, is regarded as one of the world’s deadliest natural disasters on record. However, due to the lack of meteorological data before the 1950s, the causes of this event are rarely investigated. Here, we combine multiple lines of evidence from recently available historical observations, reanalysis datasets, and atmospheric general circulation model simulations driven by historical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) that cover the early twentieth century to reveal the physical mechanisms underlying this flood. We find that the flooding in 1931 along the Yangtze River valley was dominated by July rainfall. Although the rainfall totals in July 1931 were not the largest in history (ranking second over the past century), the totals exceeded those for many other pluvial years between 1951 and 2010 in terms of its persistence, which was associated with a steady western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH). The flooding resulted from the combined effects of tropical El Niño–related SST forcing and extratropical wave activities over the Eurasian continent. On the one hand, warm SST anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean following an El Niño event led to the southwestward extension of the WPSH. On the other hand, the southward shift of the westerly jet due to extratropical wave activities prevented the normal northward movement of the WPSH typical in July. Additionally, the impact that the preceding springtime precipitation and soil moisture had on the summer flood of 1931 is also discussed.

Causes of 2022 summer marine heatwave in the East China Seas

Recent occurrences of marine heatwaves (MHWs) in coastal China seas have caused serious impacts on marine ecosystem services and socio-economics. Nevertheless, the underlying physical process, including local drivers and remote associations, remains poorly understood, thereby hindering accurate predictability. In this study, we reported an extreme MHW event in the East China Seas (ECSs, including the Bohai, Yellow, and East China Sea), lasting for 75 d with a maximum intensity of 1.96 °C relative to 1982–2011 during the summer 2022. This ECSs MHW event was triggered by a combination of anomalous atmospheric and oceanic conditions, including enhanced insolation, weakened surface wind speed, suppressed latent heat loss from ocean, a shallower mixed layer, and upper ocean current anomaly. Mixed-layer temperature budget diagnosis suggested that changes in the ECSs temperature were dominated by the surface net heat flux, largely due to strong shortwave radiation flux, during the development and decay of the MHW event. Oceanic advection also created favorable conditions for the maintenance of the MHW. These physical drivers were further regulated by the westward expanded and intensified western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), potentially linked to the negative phase of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Despite the three years (2020–2022) consecutive La Niña events, the ECSs summer MHWs appeared to be more closely linked to negative IOD events, with a lagging period of 1–3 mon. The seasonal precursor signals of the negative IOD have the potential to affect local physical drivers of ECSs MHWs through regulating the strength and position of WPSH, thus serving as a promising predictor for the ECSs MHWs. The future likelihood and intensity of the ECSs MHWs are projected to increase substantially in the coming decades, largely due to broad-scale warming attributed to anthropogenic climate change. Consequently, there is an urgent need to develop MHW forecasting and early warning systems, and robust approaches to address climate change.

Predicting the interannual variability of the subtropical high over the western Pacific Ocean based on the improved information diffusion model

Because of its special location and structure, the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) influences greatly the climate and weather in East Asia, especially the summer precipitation. To clarify how the interannual variability (IAV) of the WPSH is related to anomalies in the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation, time series of the intensity index of the WPSH are subjected to wavelet analysis, showing IAV in the index. Characteristic indexes are defined for three key sea areas and the equatorial-latitude westerly region. After a continuous wavelet transform, the oscillation period of them is similar to that of the WPSH. The cross-wavelet transform of the four regional and two WPSH indexes is used to obtain the corresponding time-delay correlation. Regarding the potential correlation, WPSH weakening leads to strengthening of the westerly wind and then affects the rise of SST in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. At the same time, warm water moves eastward. This gradually increases the SST in the equatorial central Pacific and warm pool area and then strengthens the WPSH under the action of the Hadley circulation. From the above analysis, a model for predicting the IAV of the WPSH intensity index is established based on the information diffusion model improved by a genetic algorithm. An experiment is conducted to predict the IAV of the WPSH intensity index, and the results show that the prediction model is accurate in predicting the IAV trend, with good prediction for 84 months. The mean absolute percentage error is 14.44% and the correlation coefficient is 0.8507. Also, the normal and abnormal years of the WPSH are used as different starting points for different prediction experiments. However, the different starting points have little influence on the predictions, showing the stability of the model. Studying the IAV of the WPSH provides a strong theoretical and scientific basis for predicting its abnormal interannual behavior and offers the prospect of socially important disaster prevention and mitigation.

Evaluation of the prediction performance of air quality numerical forecast models in Shenzhen

As an economically intensive city within the greater bay area (GBA), Shenzhen has suffered from severe ozone pollution in recent years. Numerical modeling is an important tool in daily air quality prediction. However, a combination of factors, such as outdated emission inventories and the uncertainty of weather and numeric models, pose challenges for accurately forecasting pollution periods and levels. Therefore, systematic evaluation of the numerical model performance is crucial for better manual revised prediction of the daily MAD8h and air quality index (AQI). In this paper, a multimodel air quality forecast system, which was built in our public-owned monitoring center station, was evaluated to understand the possibilities of improvements. Based on the 2021 observed data of the national air monitoring station, we utilized a series of metrics to access the predicted air quality index (AQI) and pollution concentration levels from models (including WRF-CMAQ, NAQPMS, and WRF-CHEM) and compared them to the manual prediction. The results indicated that WRF-CMAQ performs outstandingly in comprehensive analysis, with a yearly 24 h (hour) forecast accuracy (A) exceeding 91%. The NAQPMS 24 h forecast presented the lowest accuracy (A = 71%) with a high overprediction rate. The forecast accuracy of WRF-CHEM and NAQPMS in the winter period was 100%. However, frequently changing weather patterns interfered with spring forecasting. Forecasters can accurately predict mild pollution cases (A = 81.8% for 24 h, A = 72.7% for 48 h), whereas numerical models (NAQPMS and WRF-CHEM) showed better sensitivity to moderate pollution cases. For fine particulate evaluation, CMAQ's low biases occurred in winter, and the manually revised air quality forecast (MRAQR) normally gave higher prediction values except in pollution cases. Model underestimation could be explained by missing the long-range dust transport contribution from the northern part of China. The ozone 24 h forecast part revealed that WRF-CMAQ exhibited the highest correlation coefficient (R = 0.70, 19.74% < RMSE < 42.7%), whereas NAQPMS showed relatively poor results with the highest ME (43 μg/m3) and MFE (41.92%). Close examination of synoptic information revealed that ozone pollution cases were subjected to the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) system, tropical cycle, and regional strong pollution transport. The NAQPMS ozone overprediction could be explained by the overestimation of troposphere transmission from the surroundings during nonconductive weather patterns. The study investigates a theoretical method for model optimization, which provides solid support for precise emission reduction and targeted pollution control.

Persistent Meteorological Drought in the Yangtze River Basin during Summer–Autumn 2022: Relay Effects of Different Atmospheric Internal Variabilities

During the summer–autumn (July–October, Jul–Oct) period of 2022, the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) of China experienced an extreme meteorological drought, with Jul–Oct containing the lowest precipitation in the YRB since 1979. The possible causes of this drought were analyzed in the present study. Surprisingly, unlike many previous drought events, we found that this event was not characterized by a consistent atmospheric circulation anomaly regime throughout the entire drought period. Instead, two distinct circulation patterns were responsible for the precipitation deficit in two different stages, i.e., July–August (Jul–Aug) and September–October (Sep–Oct). In Jul–Aug, the YRB precipitation deficit primarily resulted from an intensified and northward-shifted East Asian subtropical jet, which allowed for an extremely northwestward shift of western Pacific subtropical highs, leading to an anomalous descending motion. Such circulation patterns in Jul–Aug originated from the dispersion of Rossby waves upstream from central Asia and Europe. Meanwhile, in Sep–Oct, the YRB drought was primarily attributed to a low-level cyclonic anomaly over the western North Pacific, which was closely associated with frequent tropical cyclones traveling across this region. Observational analysis and a model ensemble hindcast suggest that atmospheric internal variabilities dominated the drought process, while the SSTA, particularly the La Niña event, played a limited role. Therefore, this long-lasting extreme YRB meteorological drought was largely driven by the relay effects of different atmospheric internal variabilities in Jul–Aug and Sep–Oct, respectively, which shows limited model predictability and poses a great challenge for operational climate predictions.

The Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Extreme High Temperatures and Urban Vulnerability in Nanchong, China

It is necessary to alleviate the high temperatures and heat wave disasters in cities in southwest China that are beginning to occur because of global warming. During this study, the spatial and temporal characteristics of heat waves in Nanchong from 1961 to 2022 are analyzed by using the signal smooth method and mutation test. Based on the meteorological data and socioeconomic statistics, the entropy value method is used to obtain the indicator weights to construct a heat wave social vulnerability evaluation index system and conduct vulnerability assessments and classifications. The results show that: ① The heat wave indicators in Nanchong show an increasing trend, although there is a low period of heat waves from 1980 to 1995. Additionally, there are significant mutations in the number of days, frequency, and intensity of high-temperature heat waves from 2009 to 2011, which may be caused by the abnormal high-pressure belt in the mid-latitude. ② The distribution of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptability in Nanchong City, under high temperatures, is uneven in space. Generally, the indicators in the north are lower than those in the south. ③ The high-vulnerability counties are mainly distributed in the east and west of Nanchong, the proportion of the medium social vulnerability index areas are more than a half, while the dominant factor in the distribution pattern is natural factors. ④ The Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) anomaly directly led to the extremely high temperature in Nanchong in the summer of 2022, and the urbanization process index shows a significant positive correlation with the trend of high temperatures and heat waves in Nanchong.

Characteristics and mechanism of a persistent ozone pollution event in Pearl River Delta induced by typhoon and subtropical high

Ozone (O3) is a significant air pollutant in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region, with severe pollution events primarily associated with the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) and typhoon periphery synoptic weather patterns. To investigate the continuity and differences in O3 pollution processes influenced by these patterns, we analyze a severe O3 pollution event in Zhuhai from September 10 to 13, 2022. The study collects vertical profiles of O3 from the differential absorption O3 lidar and wind fields observed by the Doppler wind profile lidar. We utilize ground-level monitoring data from national ambient air quality monitoring network and meteorological stations to analyze diurnal variations of air pollutant concentrations and ground-level meteorological conditions. The study reveals that both the WPSH and the typhoon periphery create favorable meteorological conditions for severe O3 pollution events. The highest temperatures during the WPSH and typhoon periphery stages are 32.1 °C and 37.5 °C, respectively. During the WPSH control stage, the combined effects of the inversion layer and light static wind hinder O3 dispersion. The ground-level O3 concentration reaches a maximum of 106 ppb. Then the typhoon periphery control stage, the ground-level O3 peak increases to 170 ppb, showing a 60% increase compared to the WPSH stage. O3 horizontal and vertical transport processes play a crucial role in the O3 episode during this stage. The northerly winds predominantly transport pollutants from upstream urban clusters to the local area, and intense downdrafts facilitate the downward transport of O3 from the residual layer. The study investigates the mechanisms of three-dimensional O3 transport within the boundary layer influenced by the WPSH and typhoon periphery in the PRD region. The results contribute valuable insights to pollution events in the PRD region under typical synoptic weather patterns.

Response of Future Summer Marine Heatwaves in the South China Sea to Enhanced Western Pacific Subtropical High

AbstractMarine heatwaves (MHWs) are prevalent in the South China Sea (SCS) and are primarily caused by the anomalous western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) which suppresses the SCS summer monsoon. Our study investigates future summer MHWs in the SCS in response to the enhanced WPSH. The results show that the WPSH will be strengthened in most models under the highest emission scenario. Total days of summer SCS MHWs will significantly increase with the enhancement of the WPSH and peak at the end of the 21st century. The high‐value area of total days of summer MHWs (&gt;50 days) appears in the south‐central SCS. The intensity of MHWs exhibits little response to the strengthening WPSH. In addition, the weakening of the SCS cold filament due to the anomalous WPSH also favors summer MHWs. Furthermore, increased future severe summer SCS MHWs will create a higher bleaching risk for coral reefs.

Spatial–Temporal Variations in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes during 1960–2019 in Guizhou Province, China

Under the background of global warming, climate extremes have become a crucial issue with distinct heterogeneity features in different regions. Hence, spatial–temporal changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in Guizhou Province were investigated utilizing daily maximums and minimums of temperature and daily precipitation data during 1960–2019 based on trend analysis. It was concluded that, firstly, all warm extremes but warm spell duration indicator (WSDI) are significantly enhanced, whereas for cold extremes, the monthly minimum value of daily minimum temperature (TNn) is significantly enhanced, while cool nights (TN10P), frost days (FD0), ice days (ID0), and cold spell duration indicator (CSDI) are significantly decreased. And all precipitation extremes but consecutive wet days (CWD) have no significant variational trend in Guizhou Province. Secondly, variational trends of temperature extremes are more prominent and robust in western Guizhou Province. Temperature and precipitation extremes show large differences from spring to winter. Thirdly, temperature extremes are closely correlated with strength, area, and the westernmost ridge point index of western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), whereas precipitation extremes show no distinct correlation with WPSH. The WPSH has significantly strengthened and shifted westward in the past 60 years, leading to less total cloud cover and more downward solar wave flux reaching Earth’s surface, accordingly, exacerbating warm extremes and weakening cold extremes. These results will benefit understanding the heterogeneity of climate extremes at a regional scale.

Dynamic and thermodynamic causes of summer extreme precipitation over South China

The summer days between 1961 and 2017 are divided into two categories: extreme precipitation days (EPDs) and general precipitation days (GPDs). Compared to GPDs, on EPDs, South China (SC) is affected by a local trough in the lower troposphere and the East Asian subtropical westerly jet (EAWJ) is strengthened in the upper troposphere. The anomalous extension of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) in the South China Sea (SCS) is a key of EPDs. The reason for the extension of WPSH is due to a Kelvin wave-induced Ekman divergence (WIED) response to the SST anomaly zonal contrast between the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and tropical Pacific Ocean (TPO). The vertical velocity gradient ∂ω/∂p anomaly in accord with Sverdrup vorticity balance plays a secondary reinforcing role. Utilizing the quasi-geostrophic omega (QG ω) equation, the quantitative contributions of the dynamic term ωD and thermodynamic term ωQ are examined. On EPDs, the ωQ term over SC has the largest contribution to total ω, accounting for 46.2%, while the ωD term accounts for only 16.7%. The variation of ωQ is the main contributor to the variation of ω within different precipitation ranges, with time and with vertical levels. Water vapor plays a crucial role in adiabatic heating. The moisture budget analysis suggests that water vapor transport is significantly converted into precipitable water from 3 days before EPDs, increasing the humidity of the atmosphere and providing favorable conditions for adiabatic heating.

Hydroclimate changes since the last glacial maximum from sedimentary biomarkers in a crater lake in the Great Khingan Mountains, Northeast China

The scarcity of well-dated, highly temporally resolved, paleoclimate records since the last glacial maximum (LGM) in Northeast China limits our understanding of past climatic variations and the prediction of future hydrological changes in the context of anthropogenic global warming. A high-resolution n-alkane record covering the past ∼25 kyr was retrieved from Lake Tuofengling, a hydrologically closed crater lake in the central Great Khingan Mountains. The sediments contained a suite of mid- and long-chain n-alkanes with a strong odd-to even-carbon number predominance. The relative proportion of mid-to long-chain n-alkane homologues (Paq) was proposed to evaluate the input of submerged/floating plants into lake sediments relative to that from emergent/terrestrial plants, which could be a useful indicator of lake level in lacustrine settings. The Paq proxy demonstrated that lake level increased stably from the shallowest level during the LGM to a maximum depth at 7.5–3.0 cal ka BP, with a minor decreasing trend during the late Holocene. The asynchronous changes in effective moisture in the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) region since the LGM might be directly or indirectly mediated by the shift in the rainfall belt, the position and intensity of the Western Pacific Subtropical High and Okhotsk High at different timescales. Our study provides new insights into climatic evolution in Northeast China, where the main climate pattern may not always be similar to the typical EASM pattern.

The 2022 summer marine heatwaves and coral bleaching in China's Greater Bay Area

From July to August 2022, scleractinian coral communities in China's Greater Bay Area (GBA) in the northern South China Sea (nSCS) experienced an unprecedented bleaching event, despite the fact that coral communities in this area are often considered coral thermal refugia due to their high latitude distribution. Field surveys of six sites covering three main coral distribution areas of the GBA revealed that coral bleaching occurred at all sites. Bleaching was more severe in shallow water (1–3 m) than in deep water (4–6 m), as indicated by both percent bleached cover (51.80 ± 10.04% vs. 7.09 ± 7.37%) and bleached colonies (45.86 ± 11.22% vs. 6.58 ± 6.53%). Coral genera Acropora, Favites, Montipora, Platygyra, Pocillopora, and Porites showed high susceptibility to bleaching, and Acropora and Pocillopora suffered high post-bleaching mortality. In the three areas surveyed, analysis of oceanographic data detected marine heatwaves (MHWs) during the summer, with mean intensities between 1.62 and 1.97 °C and durations between 5 and 22 days. These MHWs were primarily driven by increased shortwave radiation due to strong western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH), combined with reduced mixing between the surface and deep upwelling waters due to reduced wind speed. Comparing with histological oceanographic data showed that the 2022 MHWs were unprecedented, and there was a significant increase in the frequency, intensity, and total days of MHWs during 1982–2022. Furthermore, the heterogeneous distribution of summer MHW characteristics indicates that the coastal upwelling may modulate the spatial distribution of summer MHWs in nSCS through its cooling effect. Overall, our study indicates that MHWs may have affected the structure of the subtropical coral communities in the nSCS, and impaired their potential as thermal refugia.

Mechanism analysis of the summer dry-wet interdecadal transition in the Tarim Basin, Northwest China

Using the ERA-5 monthly reanalysis data and precipitation observations, this paper analyses the interdacal dry-wet transition and its mechanism in the Tarim Basin(TB) during summer. From the long-term perspective(1961–2021), TB is in a trend of “wet in the west and dry in the east”. By taking a nine-year moving average of the precipitation(PRE), the research period is divided into three subperiods: P1(1961–1987), P2(1988–2009) and P3(2010−2021). From P1 to P3, the regional averaged Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI) demonstrates an interdecadal turning of “wetting to drying”. During P2(1988–2009), the dynamic component of water vapor increases the zonal moisture transport, causing a slight increase in PRE. The potential evapotranspiration(PET) is weakened by the increase in PRE and relative humidity(RH), the decrease in 2-m temperature(T2m) and 10-m wind speed(10UV), resulting in the humidification of the TB. In the P3(2010–2021), the non-linear component of water vapor increases moisture convergence in the western TB, causing a significant increase in PRE. However, the decrease in RH, accompanied by increases in T2m and UV10, results in a rapid increase in PET. The TB gets dry. The South Asian high(SAH) develops southeastward, guiding more water vapor transport from the upstream westerly and the tropical Indian Ocean. The Western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH) extends northwestward, increasing water vapor convergence in the western TB. The main reason for the increased precipitation changes from increased water vapor advection to enhanced water vapor convergence. The differences in PRE formation and T2m amplitude cause the interdecadal change in RH, deriving an interdecadal transition of wet and dry in the TB. Our findings may deepen the understanding of climate change, and provide a scientific support for ecological development, and global climate governance in arid/semi-arid regions.

The effects of intraseasonal oscillations on landfalling tropical cyclones in the Philippines during the boreal summer

As a kind of weather phenomenon with destructive wind and heavy rainfall, tropical cyclones (TCs), especially the landing TCs, can cause severer economic damage and losses of life. Philippines is one of the countries mostly affected by Tropical cyclones (TCs). Based on the best-track TC data and global atmospheric and oceanic reanalysis data, the present paper investigates the isolated and combined effects of two intraseasonal oscillations, the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) and the quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO), on landfall of TCs in the Philippines during boreal summer (May-September) in 1979-2019. The results show that both the MJO and the QBWO can significantly affect the frequency, landfall intensity, location, and translation speed of TCs that make landfall in the Philippines. During the convective (non-convective) phases of the MJO and the QBWO, more (less) frequent and stronger (weaker) TCs make landfall in the Philippines. This is due to the increased (decreased) frequency of TCs formation in the NWP and environmental factors in the region east of the Philippines that are favorable (unfavorable) for the development of TCs. With the northward propagation of the convective signals of the MJO and QBWO, the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) shifts eastward, and the steering flow is unfavorable for westward movement of NWP TCs. This, in turn, causes a northward shift in the landfall locations and a decrease in the translation speed of TCs. These results are helpful for the prediction of the TCs affecting the Philippines.

Statistical post-processing of precipitation forecasts using circulation classifications and spatiotemporal deep neural networks

Abstract. Statistical post-processing techniques are widely used to reduce systematic biases and quantify forecast uncertainty in numerical weather prediction (NWP). In this study, we propose a method to correct the raw daily forecast precipitation by combining large-scale circulation patterns with local spatiotemporal information such as topography and meteorological factors. Particularly, we first use the self-organizing map (SOM) model to classify large-scale circulation patterns for each season, then we build the convolutional neural network (CNN) model to extract spatial information (e.g., elevation, specific humidity, and mean sea level pressure) and the long short-term memory network (LSTM) model to extract time series (e.g., t, t−1, t−2), and we finally correct local precipitation for each circulation pattern separately. Furthermore, the proposed method (SOM-CNN-LSTM) is compared with other benchmark methods (i.e., CNN, LSTM, and CNN-LSTM) in the Huaihe River basin with a lead time of 15 d from 2007 to 2021. The results show that the proposed SOM-CNN-LSTM post-processing method outperforms other benchmark methods for all lead times and each season with the largest correlation coefficient improvement (32.30 %) and root mean square error reduction (26.58 %). Moreover, the proposed method can effectively capture the westward and northward movement of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), which impacts the basin's summer rain. The results illustrate that incorporating large-scale circulation patterns with local spatiotemporal information is a feasible and effective post-processing method to improve forecasting skills, which would benefit hydrological forecasts and other applications.

Meteorological impacts on interannual anomalies of O3 import over Twain-Hu Basin

Prominent O3 pollution over Twain-Hu Basin (THB) is observed during 2014–2020, with the annual concentrations of near-surface O3 in the range of 49–65 μg·m−3, larger than those in Sichuan Basin (SCB) and Pearl River Delta (PRD) in China. The increasing rate of O3 over THB (1.9 μg·m−3·yr−1) is also higher than the counterparts in Yangtze River Delta (YRD), SCB and PRD. Besides, the exceeding rate of O3 levels in THB rises from 3.9 % in 2014 to 11.5 % in 2019, greater than those in SCB and PRD as well. Based on the GEOS-Chem simulations in summer over 2013–2020, we find that nonlocal O3 contributes dominantly to THB, with YRD being its principle source region, during regional O3 transport over the central and eastern China. Here, the imported O3 in THB is found to be mainly driven by the wind fields and the windward topography. The East Asia Summer Monsoon (EASM) circulations significantly regulate the interannual anomalies of imported O3 over THB. In the years with abnormally higher O3 import over THB, the EASM weakens, and the location of Western Pacific Subtropical High tends to more eastward compared with the years with abnormally lower O3 import. Particularly, an abnormal easterly winds at the surface of YRD region effectively favor the delivery of O3 from YRD to THB. In addition, the weak EASM promotes and undermines the regional transport of O3 from NCP and PRD to THB, respectively. Correspondingly, the O3 concentrations over THB can be fluctuated greatly depending on the degree of regional O3 transport regulated by the EASM circulations, which indicates a complex relationship between sources and receptors of O3 transport for air quality improvement.