West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide Research Articles

Southern Ocean drives multidecadal atmospheric CO2 rise during Heinrich Stadials

The last glacial period was punctuated by cold intervals in the North Atlantic region that culminated in extensive iceberg discharge events. These cold intervals, known as Heinrich Stadials, are associated with abrupt climate shifts worldwide. Here, we present CO2 measurements from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide ice core across Heinrich Stadials 2 to 5 at decadal-scale resolution. Our results reveal multi-decadal-scale jumps in atmospheric CO2 concentrations within each Heinrich Stadial. The largest magnitude of change (14.0 ± 0.8 ppm within 55 ± 10 y) occurred during Heinrich Stadial 4. Abrupt rises in atmospheric CO2 are concurrent with jumps in atmospheric CH4 and abrupt changes in the water isotopologs in multiple Antarctic ice cores, the latter of which suggest rapid warming of both Antarctica and Southern Ocean vapor source regions. The synchroneity of these rapid shifts points to wind-driven upwelling of relatively warm, carbon-rich waters in the Southern Ocean, likely linked to a poleward intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds. Using an isotope-enabled atmospheric circulation model, we show that observed changes in Antarctic water isotopologs can be explained by abrupt and widespread Southern Ocean warming. Our work presents evidence for a multi-decadal- to century-scale response of the Southern Ocean to changes in atmospheric circulation, demonstrating the potential for dynamic changes in Southern Ocean biogeochemistry and circulation on human timescales. Furthermore, it suggests that anthropogenic CO2 uptake in the Southern Ocean may weaken with poleward strengthening westerlies today and into the future.

The importance of terrestrial carbon sequestration during Termination 1

ABSTRACTDuring the transition from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the Holocene, terrestrial carbon sequestration occurred primarily in boreal forests and forest soils largely on landscapes that had been covered by ice sheets. Major processes operating during this period included radiative warming from rising concentrations of atmospheric CO2 (degassing oceans and oxidation of permafrost); increased seasonal warming associated with axial precession; melting of alpine glaciers and ice sheets; exposure of new land surfaces; and sequestration of carbon in expanding terrestrial vegetation and soils. We examine mechanisms of warming that melted glacial ice; temporal and spatial availability of newly exposed landscapes; rates at which plant colonization and soil development occurred; estimates of terrestrial carbon sequestration; and how those processes interacted with one another. Data from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide ice core show that from 18 to 11 cal ka bp the concentration of atmospheric CO2 rose by ≈80 ppmv (≈170 Gt C); published estimates of net terrestrial carbon sequestration (following photosynthesis) are considerably higher (450–1250 Gt C). Thus, accumulation of carbon in terrestrial vegetation and soils played an important role in modulating atmospheric CO2 and, indirectly, Earth's climate during Termination 1, and possibly during earlier Quaternary ice ages.

Synchronizing ice-core and U ∕ Th timescales in the Last Glacial Maximum using Hulu Cave 14C and new 10Be measurements from Greenland and Antarctica

Abstract. Between 15 and 27 kyr b2k (thousands of years before 2000 CE) during the last glacial, Greenland experienced a prolonged cold stadial phase, interrupted by two short-lived warm interstadials. Greenland ice-core calcium data show two periods, preceding the interstadials, of anomalously high atmospheric dust loading, the origin of which is not well understood. At approximately the same time as the Greenland dust peaks, the Chinese Hulu Cave speleothems exhibit a climatic signal suggested to be a response to Heinrich Event 2, a period of enhanced ice-rafted debris deposition in the North Atlantic. In the climatic signal of Antarctic ice cores, moreover, a relative warming occurs between 23 and 24.5 kyr b2k that is generally interpreted as a counterpart to a cool climate phase in the Northern Hemisphere. Proposed centennial-scale offsets between the polar ice-core timescales and the speleothem timescale hamper the precise reconstruction of the global sequence of these climatic events. Here, we examine two new 10Be datasets from Greenland and Antarctic ice cores to test the agreement between different timescales, by taking advantage of the globally synchronous cosmogenic radionuclide production rates. Evidence of an event similar to the Maunder Solar Minimum is found in the new 10Be datasets, supported by lower-resolution radionuclide data from Greenland and 14C in the Hulu Cave speleothem, representing a good synchronization candidate at around 22 kyr b2k. By matching the respective 10Be data, we determine the offset between the Greenland ice-core chronology, GICC05, and the Antarctic chronology for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide ice core (WDC), WD2014, to be 125 ± 40 years. Furthermore, via radionuclide wiggle-matching, we determine the offset between the Hulu speleothem and ice-core timescales to be 375 years for GICC05 (75–625 years at 68 % confidence) and 225 years for WD2014 (−25–425 years at 68 % confidence). The rather wide uncertainties are intrinsic to the wiggle-matching algorithm and the limitations set by data resolution. The undercounting of annual layers in GICC05 inferred from the offset is hypothesized to have been caused by a combination of underdetected annual layers, especially during periods with low winter precipitation, and misinterpreted unusual patterns in the annual signal during the extremely cold period often referred to as Heinrich Stadial 1.

The new Kr-86 excess ice core proxy for synoptic activity: West Antarctic storminess possibly linked to Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) movement through the last deglaciation

Abstract. Here we present a newly developed ice core gas-phase proxy that directly samples a component of the large-scale atmospheric circulation: synoptic-scale pressure variability. Surface pressure changes weakly disrupt gravitational isotopic settling in the firn layer, which is recorded in krypton-86 excess (86Krxs). The 86Krxs may therefore reflect the time-averaged synoptic pressure variability over several years (site “storminess”), but it likely cannot record individual synoptic events as ice core gas samples typically average over several years. We validate 86Krxs using late Holocene ice samples from 11 Antarctic ice cores and 1 Greenland ice core that collectively represent a wide range of surface pressure variability in the modern climate. We find a strong spatial correlation (r=-0.94, p<0.01) between site average 86Krxs and time-averaged synoptic variability from reanalysis data. The main uncertainties in the analysis are the corrections for gas loss and thermal fractionation and the relatively large scatter in the data. Limited scientific understanding of the firn physics and potential biases of 86Krxs require caution in interpreting this proxy at present. We show that Antarctic 86Krxs appears to be linked to the position of the Southern Hemisphere eddy-driven subpolar jet (SPJ), with a southern position enhancing pressure variability. We present a 86Krxs record covering the last 24 kyr from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide ice core. Based on the empirical spatial correlation of synoptic activity and 86Krxs at various Antarctic sites, we interpret this record to show that West Antarctic synoptic activity is slightly below modern levels during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), increases during the Heinrich Stadial 1 and Younger Dryas North Atlantic cold periods, weakens abruptly at the Holocene onset, remains low during the early and mid-Holocene, and gradually increases to its modern value. The WAIS Divide 86Krxs record resembles records of monsoon intensity thought to reflect changes in the meridional position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) on orbital and millennial timescales such that West Antarctic storminess is weaker when the ITCZ is displaced northward and stronger when it is displaced southward. We interpret variations in synoptic activity as reflecting movement of the South Pacific SPJ in parallel to the ITCZ migrations, which is the expected zonal mean response of the eddy-driven jet in models and proxy data. Past changes to Pacific climate and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may amplify the signal of the SPJ migration. Our interpretation is broadly consistent with opal flux records from the Pacific Antarctic zone thought to reflect wind-driven upwelling. We emphasize that 86Krxs is a new proxy, and more work is called for to confirm, replicate, and better understand these results; until such time, our conclusions regarding past atmospheric dynamics remain speculative. Current scientific understanding of firn air transport and trapping is insufficient to explain all the observed variations in 86Krxs. A list of suggested future studies is provided.

Temporal variations of surface mass balance over the last 5000 years around Dome Fuji, Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica

Abstract. We reconstructed surface mass balance (SMB) around Dome Fuji, Antarctica, over the last 5000 years using the data from 15 shallow ice cores and seven snow pits. The depth–age relationships for the ice cores were determined by synchronizing them with a layer-counted ice core from West Antarctica (WAIS Divide ice core) using volcanic signals. The reconstructed SMB records for the last 4000 years show spatial patterns that may be affected by their locations relative to the ice divides around Dome Fuji, proximity to the ocean, and wind direction. The SMB records from the individual ice cores and snow pits were stacked to reconstruct the SMB history in the Dome Fuji area. The stacked record exhibits a long-term decreasing trend at -0.037±0.005 kg m−2 per century over the last 5000 years in the preindustrial period. The decreasing trend may be the result of long-term surface cooling over East Antarctica and the Southern Ocean and sea ice expansion in the water vapor source areas. The multidecadal to centennial variations of the Dome Fuji SMB after detrending the record shows four distinct periods during the last millennium: a mostly negative period before 1300 CE, a slightly positive period from 1300 to 1450 CE, a slightly negative period from 1450 to 1850 CE with a weak maximum around 1600 CE, and a strong increase after 1850 CE. These variations are consistent with those of previously reconstructed SMB records in the East Antarctic plateau. The low accumulation rate periods tend to coincide with the combination of strong volcanic forcings and solar minima for the last 1000 years, but the correspondence is not clear for the older periods, possibly because of the lack of coincidence of volcanic and solar forcings or the deterioration of the SMB record due to a smaller number of stacked cores.

Seasonal temperatures in West Antarctica during the Holocene

The recovery of long-term climate proxy records with seasonal resolution is rare because of natural smoothing processes, discontinuities and limitations in measurement resolution. Yet insolation forcing, a primary driver of multimillennial-scale climate change, acts through seasonal variations with direct impacts on seasonal climate1. Whether the sensitivity of seasonal climate to insolation matches theoretical predictions has not been assessed over long timescales. Here, we analyse a continuous record of water-isotope ratios from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide ice core to reveal summer and winter temperature changes through the last 11,000 years. Summer temperatures in West Antarctica increased through the early-to-mid-Holocene, reached a peak 4,100 years ago and then decreased to the present. Climate model simulations show that these variations primarily reflect changes in maximum summer insolation, confirming the general connection between seasonal insolation and warming and demonstrating the importance of insolation intensity rather than seasonally integrated insolation or season duration2,3. Winter temperatures varied less overall, consistent with predictions from insolation forcing, but also fluctuated in the early Holocene, probably owing to changes in meridional heat transport. The magnitudes of summer and winter temperature changes constrain the lowering of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet surface since the early Holocene to less than 162 m and probably less than 58 m, consistent with geological constraints elsewhere in West Antarctica4–7.

Near-surface seismic anisotropy in Antarctic glacial snow and ice revealed by high-frequency ambient noise

AbstractAmbient seismic recordings taken at broad locations across Ross Ice Shelf and a dense array near West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide, Antarctica, show pervasive temporally variable resonance peaks associated with trapped seismic waves in near-surface firn layers. These resonance peaks feature splitting on the horizontal components, here interpreted as frequency-dependent anisotropy in the firn and underlying ice due to several overlapping mechanisms driven by ice flow. Frequency peak splitting magnitudes and fast/slow axes were systematically estimated at single stations using a novel algorithm and compared with good agreement with active source anisotropy measurements at WAIS Divide determined via active sources recorded on a 1 km circular array. The approach was further applied to the broad Ross Ice Shelf (RIS) array, where anisotropy axes were directly compared with visible surface features and ice shelf flow lines. The near-surface firn, depicted by anisotropy above 30 Hz, was shown to exhibit a novel plastic stretching mechanism of anisotropy, whereby the fast direction in snow aligns with accelerating ice shelf flow.

Shallow Ice‐Sheet Composite Structure Revealed by Seismic Imaging Near the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide Camp

AbstractSmall‐scale polar ice‐sheet composite structures can influence coarse‐grained climate models. For example, surface melting can hydro‐fracture the ice and may eventually lubricate the base. The drainage process will change the petrophysical properties of the subsurface and is predictable from high‐resolution seismic imaging. Ray‐based imaging methods, though limited by the approximations made, have mapped seismic velocities in 1D, but have yet to offer definitive information about the lateral heterogeneity. Here we use the wave‐equation‐based seismic imaging method to estimate shear‐wave velocities and to image an englacial reflector in 2D. We use 7‐day ambient‐noise data recorded by a linear array near the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide drilling site to perform the study. We obtain 2D vertical and horizontal shear‐wave velocity models and observe a lateral variation of the radial anisotropy along the acquisition line. The inverted velocity model is further used to estimate the thicknesses of firn‐air and firn layers. We also observe evident SH reflections and calculate the reflector image using robust zero‐offset imaging and a more precise reverse time migration imaging method. The imaged reflector is at about 1,700 m depth and is dipping to the southwest. We anticipate that a porosity change at that depth may cause this englacial seismic discontinuity near WAIS Divide. Our results demonstrate the feasibility of estimating the petrophysical properties of polar ice using seismic methods. We anticipate our work to be further used for understanding ice dynamics and thermodynamics, such as the stability of ice shelves, the retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet, and restoring the paleo‐sedimentary environment.

Role of mineral dust in the nitrate preservation during the glacial period: Insights from the RICE ice core

Nitrate (NO3−), an abundant aerosol in polar snow, is a complex environmental proxy to interpret owing to its diverse sources and susceptibility to post-depositional processes. During the last glacial period, when dust concentrations in the Antarctic ice were upto ~50 times than today, mineral dust appears to have a stabilizing effect on the NO3− concentration in snow. However, the mechanism leading to the stabilization remains unclear. Here, we present the new and highly resolved records of NO3− and non-sea salt calcium (nssCa2+, a proxy for mineral dust) from the Roosevelt Island Climate Evolution (RICE) ice core. We focus on the glacial period from 83 to 26 kilo years Before Present (ka BP). The data show a statistically significant correlation between NO3− and nssCa2+ over this period. To put our findings into a spatial context, we compare RICE data with existing records from east Antarctica (EPICA Dome C [EDC], Vostok and central Dome Fuji) and West Antarctica (West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide Ice Core [WDC]). Spatial analysis suggests that nssCa2+ is contributing to the effective scavenging of NO3− from the atmosphere perhaps through the formation of calcium nitrate (Ca(NO3)2). The geographic pattern implies that the process of Ca(NO3)2 formation occurs during the long-distance transport of mineral dust from mid-latitude source regions by Southern Hemisphere Westerly Winds (SHWW). The data also suggest that the correlation observed at various Antarctic locations may depend on the level of dust reaching the sites from the mid-latitude sources.

Utilizing Ice Core and Climate Model Data to Understand Seasonal West Antarctic Variability

AbstractReconstructions of past West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) climate rely on the isotopologues of water recorded in ice cores which extend the local surface temperature record back tens of thousands of years. Here, we utilize continuous flow sampling and novel back-diffusion techniques with the WAIS Divide ice core (WDCobs) to construct a seasonal record of the δ18O value of the precipitation (δ18Op) at the time of deposition from 1980-2000. We then use a water isotope enabled global climate model, iCESM1, to establish seasonal drivers of WAIS climate and of δ18Op variability at the WAIS Divide location to compare with the WDCobs and MERRA2 reanalysis data. Our results show that the WAIS seasonal climate variability is driven by the position and strength of the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL) caused by variations in the Southern Annual Mode and the two Pacific-South American patterns (PSA1 and PSA2). The largest year-to-year seasonal δ18Op anomalies at the WAIS Divide location occur with respect to PSA2 during austral winter (JJA) as a result of an eastward displacement of the ASL that shifts the associated onshore winds towards the Weddell Sea, reducing temperatures and precipitation near the WAIS Divide location. Additionally, the iCESM1 experiment suggests that changes to the moisture path from the source to the WAIS Divide location is an important driver of seasonal WDCobs δ18Op variability. This work highlights the potential of using a single ice core to reconstruct past WAIS climate at seasonal timescales.

Age‐Depth Stratigraphy of Pine Island Glacier Inferred From Airborne Radar and Ice‐Core Chronology

AbstractUnderstanding the contribution of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) to past and future sea level has been a major scientific priority over the last three decades. In recent years, observed thinning and ice‐flow acceleration of the marine‐based Pine Island Glacier has highlighted that understanding dynamic changes is critical to predicting the long‐term stability of the WAIS. However, relatively little is known about the evolution of the catchment during the Holocene. Internal reflecting horizons (IRHs) provide a cumulative record of accumulation, basal melt, and ice dynamics that, if dated, can be used to constrain ice‐flow models. Here, we use airborne radars to trace four spatially extensive IRHs deposited in the late Quaternary across the Pine Island Glacier catchment. We use the WAIS Divide ice‐core chronology to assign ages to three IRHs: 4.72 ± 0.28, 6.94 ± 0.31, and 16.50 ± 0.79 ka. We use a 1‐D model, constrained by observational and modeled accumulation rates, to produce an independent validation of our ice‐core‐derived ages and provide an age estimate for our shallowest IRH (2.31–2.92 ka). We find that our upper three IRHs correspond to three large peaks in sulfate concentrations in the WAIS Divide ice‐core record and hypothesize that the origin of these spatially extensive IRHs is from past volcanic activity. The clear correspondence between our IRHs and the ones previously identified over the Weddell Sea Sector, altogether representing ∼20% of the WAIS, indicates that a unique set of stratigraphic markers spanning the Holocene exists over a large part of West Antarctica.

Comprehensive Record of Volcanic Eruptions in the Holocene (11,000 years) From the WAIS Divide, Antarctica Ice Core

AbstractA comprehensive record (WHV2020) of explosive volcanic eruptions in the last 11,000 years is reconstructed from the West Antarctica Ice Sheet Divide deep ice core (WDC). The chronological list of 426 large volcanic eruptions in the Southern Hemisphere and the low latitudes during the Holocene are of the highest quality of all volcanic records from ice cores, owing to the high‐resolution chemical measurement of the ice core and the exceptionally accurate WDC timescale. No apparent trend is found in the frequency (number of eruptions per millennium) of volcanic eruptions, and the number of eruptions in the most recent millennium (1,000–2,000 CE) is only slightly higher than the average in the last 11 millennia. The atmospheric aerosol mass loading of climate‐impacting sulfur, estimated from measured volcanic sulfate deposition, is dominated by explosive eruptions with extraordinarily high sulfur mass loading. Signals of three major volcanic eruptions are detected in the second half of the 17th century (1700–1600) BCE when the Thera volcano in the eastern Mediterranean was suspected to have erupted; the fact that these signals are synchronous with three volcanic eruptions detected in Greenland ice cores suggests that these are likely eruptions in the low latitudes and none should be attributed exclusively to Thera. A number of eruptions with very high sulfur mass loading took place shortly before and during an early Holocene climatic episode, the so‐called 8.2 ka event, and are speculated to have contributed to the initiation and magnitude of the cold event.

Local Weather Conditions Create Structural Differences between Shallow Firn Columns at Summit, Greenland and WAIS Divide, Antarctica

Understanding how physical characteristics of polar firn vary with depth assists in interpreting paleoclimate records and predicting meltwater infiltration and storage in the firn column. Spatial heterogeneities in firn structure arise from variable surface climate conditions that create differences in firn grain growth and packing arrangements. Commonly, estimates of how these properties change with depth are made by modeling profiles using long-term estimates of air temperature and accumulation rate. Here, we compare surface meteorology and firn density and permeability in the depth range of 3.5–11 m of the firn column from cores collected at Summit, Greenland and WAIS Divide, Antarctica, two sites with the same average accumulation rate and mean annual air temperature. We show that firn at WAIS Divide is consistently denser than firn at Summit. However, the difference in bulk permeability of the two profiles is less statistically significant. We argue that differences in local weather conditions, such as mean summer temperatures, daily temperature variations, and yearly wind speeds, create the density discrepancies. Our results are consistent with previous results showing density is not a good indicator of firn permeability within the shallow firn column. Future modeling efforts should account for these weather variables when estimating firn structure with depth.

The SP19 chronology for the South Pole Ice Core – Part 2: gas chronology, Δage, and smoothing of atmospheric records

Abstract. A new ice core drilled at the South Pole provides a 54 000-year paleoenvironmental record including the composition of the past atmosphere. This paper describes the SP19 chronology for the South Pole atmospheric gas record and complements a previous paper (Winski et al., 2019) describing the SP19 ice chronology. The gas chronology is based on a discrete methane (CH4) record with 20- to 190-year resolution. To construct the gas timescale, abrupt changes in atmospheric CH4 during the glacial period and centennial CH4 variability during the Holocene were used to synchronize the South Pole gas record with analogous data from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide ice core. Stratigraphic matching based on visual optimization was verified using an automated matching algorithm. The South Pole ice core recovers all expected changes in CH4 based on previous records. Gas transport in the firn results in smoothing of the atmospheric gas record with a smoothing function spectral width that ranges from 30 to 78 years, equal to 3 % of the gas-age–ice-age difference, or Δage. The new gas chronology, in combination with the existing ice age scale from Winski et al. (2019), allows a model-independent reconstruction of the gas-age–ice-age difference through the whole record, which will be useful for testing firn densification models.

Geothermal heat flux from measured temperature profiles in deep ice boreholes in Antarctica

Abstract. The temperature at the Antarctic Ice Sheet bed and the temperature gradient in subglacial rocks have been directly measured only a few times, although extensive thermodynamic modeling has been used to estimate the geothermal heat flux (GHF) under the ice sheet. During the last 5 decades, deep ice-core drilling projects at six sites – Byrd, WAIS Divide, Dome C, Kohnen, Dome F, and Vostok – have succeeded in reaching or nearly reaching the bed at inland locations in Antarctica. When temperature profiles in these boreholes and steady-state heat flow modeling are combined with estimates of vertical velocity, the heat flow at the ice-sheet base is translated to a geothermal heat flux of 57.9 ± 6.4 mW m−2 at Dome C, 78.9 ± 5.0 mW m−2 at Dome F, and 86.9 ± 16.6 mW m−2 at Kohnen, all higher than the predicted values at these sites. This warm base under the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) could be caused by radiogenic heat effects or hydrothermal circulation not accounted for by the models. The GHF at the base of the ice sheet at Vostok has a negative value of −3.6 ± 5.3 mW m−2, indicating that water from Lake Vostok is freezing onto the ice-sheet base. Correlation analyses between modeled and measured depth–age scales at the EAIS sites indicate that all of them can be adequately approximated by a steady-state model. Horizontal velocities and their variation over ice-age cycles are much greater for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet than for the interior EAIS sites; a steady-state model cannot precisely describe the temperature distribution here. Even if the correlation factors for the best fitting age–depth curve are only moderate for the West Antarctic sites, the GHF values estimated here of 88.4 ± 7.6 mW m−2 at Byrd and 113.3 ± 16.9 mW m−2 at WAIS Divide can be used as references before more precise estimates are made on the subject.

RAM-2 Drill system development: an upgrade of the Rapid Air Movement Drill

AbstractSignificant upgrades to the Rapid Air Movement (RAM) Drill were developed and tested by the US Ice Drilling Program in 2016 through 2020 for the U.S. National Science Foundation. The design of the system leverages the existing infrastructure of the RAM Drill with the goal of greatly reducing the logistical burden of deploying the drill while maintaining the ability to drill an access hole in firn and ice to 100 m in 40 min or less. In this paper, characteristics of the drill are described, along with a description of the drill performance during the testing at Raven Camp in Greenland and at WAIS Divide Camp in Antarctica.

Comparison of observed borehole temperatures in Antarctica with simulations using a forward model driven by climate model outputs covering the past millennium

Abstract. The reconstructed surface-temperature time series from boreholes in Antarctica have significantly contributed to our understanding of multidecadal and centennial temperature changes and thus provide a good way to evaluate the ability of climate models to reproduce low-frequency climate variability. However, up to now, there has not been any systematic model–data comparison based on temperature from boreholes at a regional or local scale in Antarctica. Here, we discuss two different ways to perform such a comparison using borehole measurements and the corresponding reconstructions of surface temperature at the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide, Larissa, Mill Island, and Styx Glacier in Antarctica. The standard approach is to compare the surface temperature simulated by the climate model at the grid cell closest to each site with the reconstructions in the time domain derived from the borehole temperature observations. Although some characteristics of the reconstructions, for instance the nonuniform smoothing, limit to some extent the model–data comparison, several robust features can be evaluated. In addition, a more direct model–data comparison based on the temperature measured in the boreholes is conducted using a forward model that simulates explicitly the subsurface temperature profiles when driven with climate model outputs. This comparison in the depth domain is not only generally consistent with observations made in the time domain but also provides information that cannot easily be inferred from the comparison in the time domain. The major results from these comparisons are used to derive metrics that can be applied for future model–data comparison. We also describe the spatial representativity of the sites chosen for the metrics. The long-term cooling trend in West Antarctica from 1000 to 1600 CE (−1.0 ∘C) is generally reproduced by the models but often with a weaker amplitude. The 19th century cooling in the Antarctic Peninsula (−0.94 ∘C) is not reproduced by any of the models, which tend to show warming instead. The trend over the last 50 years is generally well reproduced in West Antarctica and at Larissa (Antarctic Peninsula) but overestimated at other sites. The wide range of simulated trends indicates the importance of internal variability in the observed trends and shows the value of model–data comparison to investigate the response to forcings.

Excess methane in Greenland ice cores associated with high dust concentrations

Ice core records of atmospheric methane (CH4) and its isotopic composition provide important information about biogeochemical cycles in the past. Interpreting these data requires that they faithfully record the composition of the atmosphere. In this study, we describe anomalies of up to 30–40 ppb CH4 that are only observed in dust-rich (>∼60 ng Ca/g ice), glacial-period ice measured with standard melt-refreeze methods. The stable isotopic composition of CH4 is also significantly affected. Results from the GISP2 and NEEM ice cores from Greenland show that excess CH4 is either released or produced in the presence of liquid water in amounts which are highly correlated with the abundance of Ca2+ and mineral dust in the sample. Additional experiments show that excess CH4 is unaffected by the addition of HgCl2 (a microbial inhibitor) and is not related to ice core storage time. Dust concentrations in Antarctic ice cores are an order of magnitude lower than in Greenlandic ice cores and no excess CH4 was observed in samples from the Antarctic WAIS Divide (WD) and South Pole (SPICE) ice cores. While the overall structure of the ice core atmospheric methane history is minimally impacted by excess CH4, the impacts on the isotopic record and on inverse models used to reconstruct CH4 sources are greater. We propose three potential mechanisms to explain the presence of excess CH4: (1) that CH4 is adsorbed on dust particles prior to deposition on the ice sheet and is slowly desorbed during the melt-extraction step of sample analysis; (2) that dust acts as a micro-environment within the ice sheet for methanogenic extremophiles; or (3) that excess CH4 is a product of abiotic degradation of organic compounds during the melt-extraction step of sample analysis.

Cloud Influence on ERA5 and AMPS Surface Downwelling Longwave Radiation Biases in West Antarctica

AbstractThe surface downwelling longwave radiation component (LW↓) is crucial for the determination of the surface energy budget and has significant implications for the resilience of ice surfaces in the polar regions. Accurate model evaluation of this radiation component requires knowledge about the phase, vertical distribution, and associated temperature of water in the atmosphere, all of which control the LW↓ signal measured at the surface. In this study, we examine the LW↓ model errors found in the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) operational forecast model and the ERA5 model relative to observations from the ARM West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE) campaign at McMurdo Station and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide. The errors are calculated separately for observed clear-sky conditions, ice-cloud occurrences, and liquid-bearing cloud-layer (LBCL) occurrences. The analysis results show a tendency in both models at each site to underestimate the LW↓ during clear-sky conditions, high error variability (standard deviations > 20 W m−2) during any type of cloud occurrence, and negative LW↓ biases when LBCLs are observed (bias magnitudes >15 W m−2 in tenuous LBCL cases and >43 W m−2 in optically thick/opaque LBCLs instances). We suggest that a generally dry and liquid-deficient atmosphere responsible for the identified LW↓ biases in both models is the result of excessive ice formation and growth, which could stem from the model initial and lateral boundary conditions, microphysics scheme, aerosol representation, and/or limited vertical resolution.

Microphysics of summer clouds in central West Antarctica simulated by the Polar Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) and the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS)

Abstract. The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE) provided a highly detailed set of remote-sensing and surface observations to study Antarctic clouds and surface energy balance, which have received much less attention than for the Arctic due to greater logistical challenges. Limited prior Antarctic cloud observations have slowed the progress of numerical weather prediction in this region. The AWARE observations from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide during December 2015 and January 2016 are used to evaluate the operational forecasts of the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) and new simulations with the Polar Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) 3.9.1. The Polar WRF 3.9.1 simulations are conducted with the WRF single-moment 5-class microphysics (WSM5C) used by the AMPS and with newer generation microphysics schemes. The AMPS simulates few liquid clouds during summer at the WAIS Divide, which is inconsistent with observations of frequent low-level liquid clouds. Polar WRF 3.9.1 simulations show that this result is a consequence of WSM5C. More advanced microphysics schemes simulate more cloud liquid water and produce stronger cloud radiative forcing, resulting in downward longwave and shortwave radiation at the surface more in agreement with observations. Similarly, increased cloud fraction is simulated with the more advanced microphysics schemes. All of the simulations, however, produce smaller net cloud fractions than observed. Ice water paths vary less between the simulations than liquid water paths. The colder and drier atmosphere driven by the Global Forecast System (GFS) initial and boundary conditions for AMPS forecasts produces lesser cloud amounts than the Polar WRF 3.9.1 simulations driven by ERA-Interim.