West African Monsoon Circulation Research Articles

Impact of Aeolus wind lidar observations on the representation of the West African monsoon circulation in the ECMWF and DWD forecasting systems

AbstractAeolus is the first satellite mission to acquire vertical profiles of horizontal line‐of‐sight winds globally and thus fills an important gap in the Global Observing System, most notably in the Tropics. This study explores the impact of this dataset on analyses and forecasts from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), focusing specifically on the West African Monsoon (WAM) circulation during the boreal summers of 2019 and 2020. The WAM is notoriously challenging to forecast and is characterized by prominent and robust large‐scale circulation features such as the African Easterly Jet North (AEJ‐North) and Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ). Assimilating Aeolus generally improves the prediction of zonal winds in both forecasting systems, especially for lead times above 24 h. These improvements are related to systematic differences in the representation of the two jets, with the AEJ‐North weakened at its southern flank in the western Sahel in the ECMWF analysis, while no obvious systematic differences are seen in the DWD analysis. In addition, the TEJ core is weakened in the ECMWF analysis and strengthened on its southern edge in the DWD analysis. The regions where the influence of Aeolus on the analysis is greatest correspond to the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) region for ECMWF and generally the upper troposphere for DWD. In addition, we show the presence of an altitude‐ and orbit‐dependent bias in the Rayleigh‐clear channel, which causes the zonal winds to speed up and slow down diurnally. Applying a temperature‐dependent bias correction to this channel contributes to a more accurate representation of the diurnal cycle and improved prediction of the WAM winds. These improvements are encouraging for future investigations of the influence of Aeolus data on African Easterly Waves and associated Mesoscale Convective Systems.

The sensitivity of the West African monsoon circulation to intraseasonal soil moisture feedbacks

AbstractIntraseasonal soil moisture variability has the potential to feed back onto the West Africa monsoon circulation through its influence on surface turbulent fluxes and planetary boundary‐layer characteristics. Using satellite observations and an atmospheric reanalysis, we investigate intraseasonal soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks triggered by large‐scale dynamics within the West African monsoon. Surprisingly, even though the surface response across the Sahel to strong convection is short‐lived (days) and precipitation accumulations are spatially and temporally heterogeneous, a coherent regional‐scale surface response to intraseasonal variability is observed. This surface response then feeds back onto the West African monsoon circulation. For example, during a dry intraseasonal event, Sahelian surface soil moisture significantly decreases, which elevates surface temperatures by 1.5 °C and shifts the monsoon circulation southward by approximately 1.5° latitude. Also, during a wet event the surface moistens and cools which leads to a northward monsoon shift. Alongside a low‐level wind response, the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) also responds to surface changes due to variations in the meridional temperature gradient. For example, an increased temperature gradient during a dry event intensifies and shifts the AEJ southward. The combined response of low‐level monsoon westerlies and the AEJ impacts low‐level shear and characteristics of strong convection. Elevated low‐level shear during a dry event promotes an intensification of deep convection across southern West Africa. This study provides new insight into the sensitivity of the West African monsoon circulation to intraseasonal soil moisture feedbacks and encourages similar research in other regions. An improved understanding and model representation of soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks has the potential to improve forecasts beyond daily time‐scales and enhance early warning systems.

Resolving Sahelian thunderstorms improves mid-latitude weather forecasts

The summertime West African Sahel has the worldwide highest degree of thunderstorm organisation into long-lived, several hundred-kilometre elongated, fast propagating systems that contribute 90% to the annual rainfall. All current global weather prediction and climate models represent thunderstorms using simplified parameterisation schemes which deteriorates the modelled distribution of rainfall from individual storms and the entire West African monsoon circulation. It is unclear how this misrepresentation of Sahelian convection affects forecasts globally. Our study is the first to demonstrate how a computationally feasible increase of model resolution over West Africa – allowing to avoid convection parameterisation – yields a better representation of organised convection in the Sahel and of moisture within the monsoon system, ultimately improving 5–8-day tropical and mid-latitude weather forecasts. We advocate an operational use of a modelling strategy similar to the one presented here for a cost-effective improvement of global weather prediction and potentially even (sub-)seasonal and climate simulations.

Harmattan, Saharan heat low, and West African monsoon circulation: modulations on the Saharan dust outflow towards the North Atlantic

Abstract. The outflow of dust from the northern African continent towards the North Atlantic is stimulated by the atmospheric circulation over North Africa, which modulates the spatio-temporal distribution of dust source activation and consequently the entrainment of mineral dust into the boundary layer, as well as the transport of dust out of the source regions. The atmospheric circulation over the North African dust source regions, predominantly the Sahara and the Sahel, is characterized by three major circulation regimes: (1) the harmattan (trade winds), (2) the Saharan heat low (SHL), and (3) the West African monsoon circulation. The strength of the individual regimes controls the Saharan dust outflow by affecting the spatio-temporal distribution of dust emission, transport pathways, and deposition fluxes.This study aims at investigating the atmospheric circulation pattern over North Africa with regard to its role favouring dust emission and dust export towards the tropical North Atlantic. The focus of the study is on summer 2013 (June to August), during which the SALTRACE (Saharan Aerosol Long-range TRansport and Aerosol-Cloud interaction Experiment) field campaign also took place. It involves satellite observations by the Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI) flying on board the geostationary Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite, which are analysed and used to infer a data set of active dust sources. The spatio-temporal distribution of dust source activation frequencies (DSAFs) allows for linking the diurnal cycle of dust source activations to dominant meteorological controls on dust emission. In summer, Saharan dust source activations clearly differ from dust source activations over the Sahel regarding the time of day when dust emission begins. The Sahara is dominated by morning dust source activations predominantly driven by the breakdown of the nocturnal low-level jet. In contrast, dust source activations in the Sahel are predominantly activated during the second half of the day, when downdrafts associated with deep moist convection are the major atmospheric driver. Complementary to the satellite-based analysis on dust source activations and implications from their diurnal cycle, simulations on atmosphere and dust life cycle were performed using the mesoscale atmosphere–dust model system COSMO-MUSCAT (COSMO: COnsortium for Small-scale MOdelling; MUSCAT: MUltiScale Chemistry Aerosol Transport Model). Fields from this simulation were analysed regarding the variability of the harmattan, the Saharan heat low, and the monsoon circulation as well as their impact on the variability of the Saharan dust outflow towards the North Atlantic. This study illustrates the complexity of the interaction among the three major circulation regimes and their modulation of the North African dust outflow. Enhanced westward dust fluxes frequently appear following a phase characterized by a deep SHL. Ultimately, findings from this study contribute to the quantification of the interannual variability of the atmospheric dust burden.

Why Do Global Climate Models Struggle to Represent Low-Level Clouds in the West African Summer Monsoon?

Abstract Climate models struggle to realistically represent the West African monsoon (WAM), which hinders reliable future projections and the development of adequate adaption measures. Low-level clouds over southern West Africa (5°–10°N, 8°W–8°E) during July–September are an integral part of the WAM through their effect on the surface energy balance and precipitation, but their representation in climate models has received little attention. Here 30 (20) years of output from 18 (8) models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Year of Tropical Convection) are used to identify cloud biases and their causes. Compared to ERA-Interim reanalyses, many models show large biases in low-level cloudiness of both signs and a tendency to too high elevation and too weak diurnal cycles. At the same time, these models tend to have too strong low-level jets, the impact of which is unclear because of concomitant effects on temperature and moisture advection as well as turbulent mixing. Part of the differences between the models and ERA-Interim appear to be related to the different subgrid cloud schemes used. While nighttime tendencies in temperature and humidity are broadly realistic in most models, daytime tendencies show large problems with the vertical transport of heat and moisture. Many models simulate too low near-surface relative humidities, leading to insufficient low cloud cover and abundant solar radiation, and thus a too large diurnal cycle in temperature and relative humidity. In the future, targeted model sensitivity experiments will be needed to test possible feedback mechanisms between low clouds, radiation, boundary layer dynamics, precipitation, and the WAM circulation.

Role of dust direct radiative effect on the tropical rain belt over Middle East and North Africa: A high‐resolution AGCM study

AbstractTo investigate the influence of direct radiative effect of dust on the tropical summer rain belt across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), the present study utilizes the high‐resolution capability of an Atmospheric General Circulation Model, the High‐Resolution Atmospheric Model. Ensembles of Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project style simulations have been conducted with and without dust radiative impacts, to differentiate the influence of dust on the tropical rain belt. The analysis focuses on summer season. The results highlight the role of dust‐induced responses in global‐ and regional‐scale circulations in determining the strength and the latitudinal extent of the tropical rain belt. A significant response in the strength and position of the local Hadley circulation is predicted in response to meridionally asymmetric distribution of dust and the corresponding radiative effects. Significant responses are also found in regional circulation features such as African Easterly Jet and West African Monsoon circulation. Consistent with these dynamic responses at various scales, the tropical rain belt across MENA strengthens and shifts northward. Importantly, the summer precipitation over the semiarid strip south of Sahara, including Sahel, increases up to 20%. As this region is characterized by the “Sahel drought,” the predicted precipitation sensitivity to the dust loading over this region has a wide range of socioeconomic implications. Overall, the study demonstrates the extreme importance of incorporating dust radiative effects and the corresponding circulation responses at various scales, in the simulations and future projections of this region's climate.

Improving the Simulation of the West African Monsoon Using the MIT Regional Climate Model

Abstract This paper presents an evaluation of the performance of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) regional climate model (MRCM) in simulating the West African monsoon. The MRCM is built on the Regional Climate Model, version 3 (RegCM3), but with several improvements, including coupling of Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) land surface scheme, a new surface albedo assignment method, new convective cloud and convective rainfall autoconversion schemes, and a modified scheme for simulating boundary layer height and boundary layer clouds. To investigate the impact of these more physically realistic representations when incorporated into MRCM, a series of experiments were carried out implementing two land surface schemes [IBIS with a new albedo assignment, and the Biosphere–Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS)] and two convection schemes (Grell with the Fritsch–Chappell closure, and Emanuel in both the default form and modified with the new convective cloud cover and a rainfall autoconversion scheme). The analysis primarily focuses on comparing the rainfall characteristics, surface energy balance, and large-scale circulations against various observations. This work documents significant sensitivity in simulation of the West African monsoon to the choices of the land surface and convection schemes. Despite several deficiencies, the simulation with the combination of IBIS and the modified Emanuel scheme with the new convective cloud cover and a rainfall autoconversion scheme shows the best performance with respect to the spatial distribution of rainfall and the dynamics of the monsoon. The coupling of IBIS leads to representations of the surface energy balance and partitioning that show better agreement with observations compared to BATS. The IBIS simulations also reasonably reproduce the dynamical structures of the West African monsoon circulation.

The impact of convective cold pool outflows on model biases in the Sahara

Radiosonde data from Fennec supersite‐1 in the remote central Sahara have been used to evaluate the impact of convectively generated cold pool outflows on model errors. Model predictions are too warm and dry, with cold pools contributing significantly to the mean bias. Although dust concentrations are high within cold pools, the sign of the errors is inconsistent with radiative impacts of dust. Cold pools cause 29% of the meridional humidity flux, but this contribution is absent in the forecast and analysis. Assimilating radiosondes reduces the errors, but significant temperature and meridional humidity flux biases remain at night. The model biases are consistent with the larger‐scale heat low biases in the operational Met Office Unified Model and can be linked to known issues with convective parameterizations used in all global weather and climate models. This study suggests that the misrepresentation of moist convective processes can affect continental‐scale biases, altering the West African monsoon circulation.

WRF/ARPEGE-CLIMAT simulated climate trends over West Africa

The Weather Regional Forecast (WRF) model is used in this study to downscale low-resolution data over West Africa. First, the performance of the regional model is estimated through contemporary period experiments (1981–1990) forced by ARPEGE-CLIMAT GCM output (ARPEGE) and ERA-40 re-analyses. Key features of the West African monsoon circulation are reasonably well represented. WRF atmospheric dynamics and summer rainfall compare better to observations than ARPEGE forcing data. WRF simulated moisture transport over West Africa is also consistent in both structure and variability with re-analyses, emphasizing the substantial role played by the West African Monsoon (WAM) and African Easterly Jet (AEJ) flows. The statistical significance of potential climate changes for the A2 scenario between 2032 and 2041 is enhanced in the downscaling from ARPEGE by the regional experiments, with substantial rainfall increases over the Guinea Gulf and eastern Sahel. Future scenario WRF simulations are characterized by higher temperatures over the eastern Tropical Atlantic suggesting more evaporation available locally. This leads to increased moisture advection towards eastern regions of the Guinea Gulf where rainfall is enhanced through a strengthened WAM flow, supporting surface moisture convergence over West Africa. Warmer conditions over both the Mediterranean region and northeastern Sahel could also participate in enhancing moisture transport within the AEJ. The strengthening of the thermal gradient between the Sahara and Guinean regions, particularly pronounced north of 10°N, would support an intensification of the AEJ northwards, given the dependance of the jet to the position/intensity of the meridional gradient. In turn, mid-tropospheric moisture divergence tends to be favored within the AEJ region supporting southwards deflection of moist air and contributing to deep moist convection over the Sahel where late summer rainfall regimes are sustained in the context of the A2 scenario regional projections. In conclusion, WRF proved to be a valuable and efficient tool to help downscaling GCM projections over West Africa, and thus assessing issues such as water resources vulnerability locally.

Development of a Coupled Regional Model and Its Application to the Study of Interactions between the West African Monsoon and the Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean

Abstract A regional ocean–atmosphere coupled model is developed for climate variability and change studies. The model allows dynamic and thermodynamic interactions between the atmospheric boundary layer and an ocean mixed layer with spatially and seasonally varying depth prescribed from observations. The model reproduces the West African monsoon circulation as well as aspects of observed seasonal SST variations in the tropical Atlantic. The model is used to identify various mechanisms that couple the West African monsoon circulation with eastern Atlantic SSTs. By reducing wind speeds and suppressing evaporation, the northward migration of the ITCZ off the west coast of Africa contributes to the modeled spring SST increases. During this period, the westerly monsoon flow is expanded farther westward and moisture transport on to the continent is enhanced. Near the end of the summer, upwelling associated with this enhanced westerly flow as well as the solar cycle lead to the seasonal cooling of the SSTs. Over the Gulf of Guinea, the acceleration of the southerly West African monsoon surface winds contributes to cooling of the Gulf of Guinea between April and July by increasing the entrainment of cool underlying water and enhancing evaporation.

Seasonal contrast in the surface energy balance of the Sahel

Over much of the world, heating of the surface by sunlight is balanced predominately by evaporative cooling. However, at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Mobile Facility (AMF) in Niamey, Niger, evaporation makes a significant contribution to the surface energy balance only at the height of the rainy season, when precipitation has replenished the reservoir of soil moisture. The AMF was placed at Niamey from late 2005 to early 2007 to provide measurements of surface fluxes in coordination with geostationary satellite retrievals of radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere, as part of the RADAGAST experiment to calculate atmospheric radiative divergence. We use observations at the mobile facility to investigate how the surface adjusts to radiative forcing throughout the year. The surface response to solar heating varies with changes in atmospheric water vapor associated with the seasonal reversal of the West African monsoon, which modulates the greenhouse effect and the ability of the surface to radiate thermal energy directly to space. During the dry season, sunlight is balanced mainly by longwave radiation and the turbulent flux of sensible heat. The ability of longwave radiation to cool the surface drops after the onset of southwesterly surface winds at Niamey, when moist, oceanic air flows onshore, increasing local column moisture and atmospheric opacity. Following the onset of southwesterly flow, evaporation remains limited by the supply of moisture from precipitation. By the height of the rainy season, however, sufficient precipitation has accumulated that evaporation is controlled by incident sunlight, and radiative forcing of the surface is balanced comparably by the latent, sensible, and longwave fluxes. Evaporation increases with the leaf area index, suggesting that plants are a significant source of atmospheric moisture and may tap moisture stored beneath the surface that accumulated during a previous rainy season. Surface radiative forcing during a dust aerosol outbreak is balanced comparably by net surface longwave and the sensible heat flux during the dry season, with the sensible flux increasing in importance with the onset of the summer monsoon winds. Measurements of surface fluxes by the AMF indicate broader features of the West African monsoon circulation and should be used to evaluate model simulations of the Sahel climate.

Leading Tropical Modes Associated with Interannual and Multidecadal Fluctuations in North Atlantic Hurricane Activity

Abstract Interannual and multidecadal extremes in Atlantic hurricane activity are shown to result from a coherent and interrelated set of atmospheric and oceanic conditions associated with three leading modes of climate variability in the Tropics. All three modes are related to fluctuations in tropical convection, with two representing the leading multidecadal modes of convective rainfall variability, and one representing the leading interannual mode (ENSO). The tropical multidecadal modes are shown to link known fluctuations in Atlantic hurricane activity, West African monsoon rainfall, and Atlantic sea surface temperatures, to the Tropics-wide climate variability. These modes also capture an east–west seesaw in anomalous convection between the West African monsoon region and the Amazon basin, which helps to account for the interhemispheric symmetry of the 200-hPa streamfunction anomalies across the Atlantic Ocean and Africa, the 200-hPa divergent wind anomalies, and both the structure and spatial scale of the low-level tropical wind anomalies, associated with multidecadal extremes in Atlantic hurricane activity. While there are many similarities between the 1950–69 and 1995–2004 periods of above-normal Atlantic hurricane activity, important differences in the tropical climate are also identified, which indicates that the above-normal activity since 1995 does not reflect an exact return to conditions seen during the 1950s–60s. In particular, the period 1950–69 shows a strong link to the leading tropical multidecadal mode (TMM), whereas the 1995–2002 period is associated with a sharp increase in amplitude of the second leading tropical multidecadal mode (TMM2). These differences include a very strong West African monsoon circulation and near-average sea surface temperatures across the central tropical Atlantic during 1950–69, compared with a modestly enhanced West African monsoon and exceptionally warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures during 1995–2004. It is shown that the ENSO teleconnections and impacts on Atlantic hurricane activity can be substantially masked or accentuated by the leading multidecadal modes. This leads to the important result that these modes provide a substantially more complete view of the climate control over Atlantic hurricane activity during individual seasons than is afforded by ENSO alone. This result applies to understanding differences in the “apparent” ENSO teleconnections not only between the above- and below-normal hurricane decades, but also between the two sets of above-normal hurricane decades.

The diurnal cycle of the West African monsoon circulation

AbstractUsing numerical model analyses, it is shown that there is a coherent diurnal cycle of the West African monsoon winds. As has been observed in previous studies of arid and semi‐arid areas, the winds are at their weakest in the afternoon when the convective boundary layer (CBL) is deep, and intensify overnight when the boundary‐layer turbulence is much weaker. This diurnal cycle is maximized in the northern part of the monsoon layer, where the meridional pressure gradient and the diurnal cycle of the CBL are both strong.The diurnal cycle can also be resolved in surface and upper‐air data, which show how the nocturnal meridional circulation acts to stratify the lower part of the monsoon layer. In contrast, mixing in the daytime CBL acts to maintain the baroclinicity, as has been observed in laboratory flows. This pattern has implications for the efficiency of the monsoon circulation in the continental water budget, as well as in mixing of trace gases and aerosols between the surface layer and the free troposphere. Vertical mixing occurs by day, while meridional advection, with isentropic upgliding and downgliding, is most efficient at night.Finally, high‐resolution observations from the JET2000 experiment are used to show that there is mesoscale structure in the diurnally varying monsoon circulation. In the nocturnal flows, local circulations have been observed and appear to represent a response to recent deep convective events. In contrast, the daytime CBL properties at these scales have been shown in a previous study to map closely onto patterns of soil moisture, with horizontal advection playing a weaker role. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society

Simulation of West African monsoon circulation in four atmospheric general circulation models forced by prescribed sea surface temperature

The mean evolution of the West African monsoon (WAM) circulation and its interannual variability have been studied using an ensemble of 21 simulations (common period 1961–1994) performed with four different atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) (European Center/Hamburg (ECHAM) 3, ECHAM 4, Action de Recherche Petite Echelle Grande Echelle (ARPEGE), and Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS)) and forced by the same observed sea surface temperature (SST) data set. The results have been compared with European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts reanalyses (ERA‐40). The climatological means of WAM winds for the AGCMs are similar to the ERA‐40 ones. However, the AGCMs tend to underestimate the southern wind component at low levels around 10°N compared to the ERA‐40. The simulated Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) is usually shifted northward and also too weak for ECHAM 3 and ECHAM 4 compared to ERA‐40. The interannual variability of an atmospheric WAM index (WAMI) is quite successfully reproduced (the correlations between the mean ensemble of each AGCM and ERA‐40 time series over 1961–1994 range between 0.51 and 0.64). In particular, the four AGCMs reproduce quite well the mean teleconnection structure with El Niño–Southern Oscillation, i.e., a strong (weak) monsoon during La Niña (El Niño) events, even if the largest absolute correlations between WAMI and SST in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific are weaker than in ERA‐40. On a yearly basis, WAMI is more predictable and skillful during the cold ENSO years than during the warm ENSO ones. The unskillful warm ENSO events are associated with a significant cooling over the equatorial Atlantic and Western Pacific Ocean and a significant warming in the tropical Indian Ocean.

Some aspects of the West African monsoon circulation As deduced from a geostationary satellite

This paper focusses on some aspects or the West African monsoonal circulation observed during the period 15 July-l0 August 1979 of the PGGE, as derived from the satellite cloud windvectors. Temporal averages of the computed winsfields reveal that the flow at the low level is southerly (monsoonal), and Its line of discontinuity with the continental northeasterly was found at approximately 16°-18°N, lying about 300 km south of the accepted mean position. At both the middle and upper tropospheres the flow is easterly with axis about 12o-14,N and, latitude 8 No respectively, such that it is a circulation south of the axis and northwards, it is anticyclonic. The satellite-observed tropospheric circulation IS then discussed in relation to the, weather manifestations over the sub-region typical of the July / August period.
 
 The mass fields obtained from our gridded satellite-winds indicate that inflow into the land area occur mainly at the lowest layer (1000:850 hPa), whereas at the upper, levels (that is, above 850 hPa) it is predominantly an outflow, The tropospheric average gives a net mass for divergence from within the area, The significance of this result in relation to the observed weather phenomenology of a temporary cessation of the monsoon precipitations occurring about the peak of the season IS also discussed.

Elements of the West African Monsoon Circulation Deduced from METEOSAT Cloud Winds and Simultaneous Aircraft Measurements

Cloud winds derived from the European geostationary satellite METEOSAT for the region of the west African monsoon are validated by DC-7 aircraft measurements for the low levels of the tropical atmosphere. Since the two sets of results are in agreement, it appears that lowest level cumuli as well as stratocumuli can be used as tracers of the actual wind field. The satellite wind fields show a large-scale circulation characterized by two opposite flows in the lower layers: the southwesterly monsoon flow near the sea surface and a northeasterly flow above, at approximately the 2000 m level.