Weather Research And Forecasting Research Articles

Enhanced regional ocean ensemble data assimilation through atmospheric coupling in the SKRIPS model

We investigate the impact of ocean data assimilation using the Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter (EAKF) from the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) on the oceanic and atmospheric states of the Red Sea. Our study extends the ocean data assimilation experiment performed by Sanikommu et al. (2020) by utilizing the SKRIPS model coupling the MITgcm ocean model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) atmosphere model. Using a 50-member ensemble, we assimilate satellite-derived sea surface temperature and height and in situ temperature and salinity profiles every three days for one year, starting January 01 2011. Atmospheric data are not assimilated in the experiments. To improve the ensemble realism, perturbations are added to the WRF model using several physics options and the stochastic kinetic energy backscatter (SKEB) scheme. Compared with the control experiments using uncoupled MITgcm with ECMWF ensemble forcing, the EAKF ensemble mean oceanic states from the coupled model are better or insignificantly worse (root-mean-square errors are 23% to −1.3% smaller), especially when the atmospheric model uncertainties are accounted for with stochastic perturbations. We hypothesize that the ensemble spreads of the air–sea fluxes are better represented in the downscaled WRF ensembles when uncertainties are well accounted for, leading to improved representation of the ensemble oceanic states from the new experiments with the coupled model. This indicates the ocean model assimilation will be improved with coupled models and may relax the need for operational centers to provide atmospheric ensembles to drive ocean forecasts. Although the feedback from ocean to atmosphere is included in this two-way regional coupled configuration, we find no significant effect of ocean data assimilation on the ensemble mean latent heat flux and 10-m wind speed over the Red Sea. This suggests that the improved skill using the coupled model is not from the two-way coupling, but from downscaling the ensemble atmospheric forcings (one-way coupled) to drive the ocean model.

High-Resolution WRF Modeling of Wind and Thermal Regimes with LCZ in Almaty, Kazakhstan

This study evaluates the effectiveness of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in simulating high-resolution atmospheric conditions for Almaty, Kazakhstan, a city prone to stagnant winter air. While the previously used Bougeault and Lacarrere scheme for parameterizing the planetary boundary layer was applied in high-resolution modeling, the number of vertical levels was increased, and a detailed local climate zones (LCZs) map was included. Ground-based observations from meteorological stations and monitoring stations, remote sensing data, and radiosonde measurements are used to verify the model. Comparison results with ground-based observations show that the WRF model with the LCZ map provides a better representation of the wind and thermal regimes of Almaty compared to the three-class land use map, including in high resolution. A good correspondence of wind direction is demonstrated by comparing the modeling results with pollutant transport plumes recorded by remote sensing data. In addition, a good correlation was found between land surface temperature from satellite data and air temperature simulated by WRF with a resolution of 333 m. A comparison of simulated data and aerological measurements confirmed that downscaling did not have a significant impact on boundary layer calculations. Analysis of turbulent processes showed that the adopted model effectively describes the attenuation and dissipation of turbulent kinetic energy and reflects the typical diurnal variations of meteorological processes in the atmosphere of Almaty in the anticyclonic winter period. The results of high-resolution WRF modeling can form the basis for the development of a hybrid system capable of modeling atmospheric processes at the building level.

Bias correction of the hourly satellite precipitation product using machine learning methods enhanced with high-resolution WRF meteorological simulations

Accurate precipitation data are crucial in atmospheric and hydrological studies, especially for water resource management and disaster early warning. Satellite precipitation product (SPP) with high spatiotemporal resolution has been regarded as a valuable alternative precipitation source to ground observations. However, the hourly SPP generally performs poorly compared to daily SPP, thereby bias correction is urgently required. This study investigates the viability of utilizing machine learning methods to correct the bias of the hourly Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement-Early (IMERG-E) product. Meanwhile, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is utilized to generate high-resolution fields of four hourly meteorological variables, namely, temperature at 2 m (TEMP2), specific humidity at 2 m (Q2), wind direction at 10 m (WDIR10), and wind speed at 10 m (WSPD10), which further serve as covariates in machine learning models to enhance the correction process. Four machine learning models were developed, i.e., Random Forest (RF) and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Networks (Bi-LSTM) without WRF-simulated covariates, and RF-WRF and Bi-LSTM-WRF with meteorological covariates. The results demonstrated that incorporating WRF-simulated meteorological covariates improved model performance. Specifically, correlation coefficient (CC) values increased from 0.47 (RF) to 0.51 (RF-WRF) and rose from 0.55 (Bi-LSTM) to 0.60 (Bi-LSTM-WRF), along with reduced root mean square error (RMSE) and increased critical success index (CSI) values. Furthermore, two Bi-LSTM models consistently outperformed two RF models. Overall, the Bi-LSTM-WRF model emerged as the most effective correction method, which increased CC from 0.43 (IMERG-E) to 0.60, reduced RMSE from 1.91 mm to 1.08 mm, and enhanced CSI from 0.34 to 0.41. This study underscores the potential of integrating high-resolution WRF meteorological outputs into machine learning frameworks for correcting hourly SPPs, contributing significantly to the advancement of precipitation estimation in meteorological and hydrological applications.

Impact of Atmospheric River and Local Topography on “21·7” Extremely Heavy Rainfall in Henan Province, China

An extremely heavy rainfall occurred in Henan Province, China, from July 19th to 21st in 2021, with large precipitation, long duration and wide precipitation area. Impact of water vapor transportation from atmospheric river (AR) on the rainfall was studied through reanalysis data and weather research and forecasting (WRF) model. Precipitation reached over 600 mm around Mount Song, which lasted for 48 h. The AR provided sufficient water vapor condition for the long-lasting rainfall. Regional averaged hourly precipitation was positively correlated with the amplitude of Integrated Horizontal Water Vapor Transport (IVT) and negatively correlated with IVT divergence (IVTD). Maximum precipitation regions were consistent with large IVT and IVTD regions. Peaks of IVT and IVTD were advancing of precipitation peak. Precipitation was affected by Mount Song through influencing spatial distribution and vertical structure of ARs and vertical velocity. Orographic lifting and wind converging around Mount Song caused the heavy rainfall in Zhengzhou City on July 20th. Precipitation, large IVT, IVTD and updrafts region located northwesterly of Mount Song in half mountain and without mountain tests. Comparing sensitivity tests with control simulation, air mass transporting by the AR and convective systems slowed down (or stagnated) when met the mountain, resulting in long lasting duration and large precipitation.

Urbanization Effect on Regional Thermal Environment and Its Mechanisms in Arid Zone Cities: A Case Study of Urumqi

Urumqi is located in the arid region of northwestern China, known for being one of the most delicate ecological environments and an area susceptible to climate change. The urbanization of Urumqi has progressed rapidly, yet there is a lack of research on the urbanization effect (UE) in Urumqi in terms of the regional climate. This study investigates the UE of Urumqi (urban built-up area) on the regional thermal environment and its mechanisms for the first time, based on the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model (combined with the Urban Canopy Model, UCM) simulation data of 10 consecutive years (2012–2021). The results show that the UE on surface temperature (Ts) and air temperature at 2 m (T2m) is strong (weak) during the night (daytime) in all seasons, and the UE on these is largest (smallest) in spring (winter). In addition, the maximum UE on both Ts and T2m is present over southern Urumqi in winter, whereas the maximum UE is identified over the northern Urumqi in other seasons. The maximum UE on Ts occurred in northwestern Urumqi at 18 LST (Local Standard Time, i.e., UTC+6) in autumn (reaching 5.2 °C), and the maximum UE on T2m occurred in northern Urumqi at 4 LST in summer (reaching 2.6 °C). Urbanization showed a weak cooling effect during daytime in summer and winter, reflecting the unique characteristics of the UE in arid regions, which are different from those in humid regions. The maximum cooling of Ts occurred in northern Urumqi at 11 LST in summer (reaching −0.4 °C), while that of T2m occurred at 10 LST in northern and northwestern Urumqi in winter (reaching −0.25 °C), and the cooling effect lasted for a longer period of time in summer than in winter. The UE of Urumqi causes the increase of Ts mainly through the influence of net short-wave radiation and geothermal flux and causes the increase of T2m through the influence of sensible heat flux and net long-wave radiation. The UE on the land surface energy balance in Urumqi can be used to explain the seasonal variation and spatial differences of the UEs on the regional thermal environment and the underlying mechanism.

Impact of Model Resolution and Initial/Boundary Conditions in Forecasting Low-Level Atmospheric Fields over the Incheon International Airport

Abstract This study investigates the impact of initial conditions/boundary conditions (ICs/BCs) and horizontal resolutions on forecast for average weather conditions, focusing on low-level weather variables such as 2-m temperature (T2m), 2-m water vapor mixing ratio (Q2m), and 10-m wind speed (WS10). A Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is used for regional mesoscale model simulations and large-eddy simulations (LESs). The 6-h-interval forecast fields generated by the Global Forecast System of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the Korean Integrated Model of the Korea Meteorological Administration are utilized as ICs/BCs for the regional models. Numerical experiments are performed for 24 h starting at 0000 UTC on each day in April 2021 when the average monthly wind speed was strongest during 10 years (2011–20). A comparison of model simulations with observations obtained around the Yeongjong Island, where Incheon International Airport is situated, shows that the regional models capture the time series of T2m, Q2m, and WS10 more effectively than the global model forecasts. Moreover, the LES experiments with a 100-m horizontal grid spacing simulate higher Q2m and lower WS10 during the daytime compared to the 1-km WRF. This results in a deterioration of their time-series correlation with the observations. Meanwhile, the 100-m LES forecasts time series of T2m over ocean stations and Q2m over land stations, as well as probability density functions of low-level weather variables, more accurately than that of the 1-km WRF. Our study also emphasizes the need for caution when comparing high-resolution model results with observation values at specific stations due to the high spatial variability in low-level meteorological fields.

Sensitivity analysis of cumulus parameterization scheme and data sources to simulate thunderstorms over Bangladesh using WRF model

To optimize weather research and forecasting (WRF) model, a sensitivity analysis has been performed for test thunderstorm events to determine the best combination of cumulus physics (CU) and data source options to be used for simulating thunderstorms over Bangladesh. Six combinations for three cumulus physics options namely, Kain-Fritsch Scheme (KF) (CU-1), Betts-Miller-Janjic Scheme (BMJ) (CU-2) and Grell-Dévényi (GD) Ensemble Scheme (CU-3) and two different data sources namely, National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Final Analysis (FNL) and the Global Forecast System (GFS) data have been used for this purpose. WRF model has been run on a single domain of 9 km horizontal resolution utilizing the combinations of these cumulus physics and six hourly GFS/FNL datasets for 48 h; from 0000 UTC of 14 May 2017 to 0000 UTC of 16 May 2017 and from 0000 UTC of 29 March 2018 to 0000 UTC of 31 March 2018 as initial and lateral boundary conditions for test event-1 and test event-2 respectively. Model simulated output for rainfall, relative humidity; mean sea level pressure and temperature have been compared with the observed data of Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD). Then absolute error of each simulated parameter has been calculated. On the basis of root mean square error (RMSE) for each parameter, better cumulus physics and data source combination has been selected. It is found that, CU-1 and GFS dataset combination exhibits less RMS error in 4 sections out of 12 sections for event-1 and in 5 sections out of 12 sections for event-2. So, it may be expected that Cu_1 and GFS dataset combination may be used for simulating thunderstorm over Bangladesh. After finalizing model physics options and data sets, another test case of TS has been simulated and different parameters are analyzed for justification of WRF setup. It is found that WRF model captured MSLP, temperature and relative humidity very well. But in case of rainfall the simulated value is much smaller than the observed value. For more accuracy more case studies may be carried out including for fair weather days as well as severe TS days.

Rainfall Sensitivity to Microphysics and Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterizations in Convection-Permitting Simulations over Northwestern South America

Convection-permitting modeling allows us to understand mechanisms that influence rainfall in specific regions. However, microphysics parameterization (MP) and planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes remain an important source of uncertainty, affecting rainfall intensity, occurrence, duration, and propagation. Here, we study the sensitivity of rainfall to three MP [Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Single-Moment 6-class (WSM6), Thompson, and Morrison] and two PBL [the Yonsei University (YSU) and Mellor–Yamada Nakanishi Niino (MYNN)] schemes with a convection-permitting resolution (4 km) over northwestern South America (NWSA). Simulations were performed by using the WRF model and the results were evaluated against soundings, rain gauges, and satellite data, considering the spatio-temporal variability of rainfall over diverse regions prone to deep convection in NWSA. MP and PBL schemes largely influenced simulated rainfall, with better results for the less computationally expensive WSM6 MP and YSU PBL schemes. Regarding rain gauges and satellite estimates, simulations with Morrison MP overestimated rainfall, especially westward of the Andes, whereas the MYNN PBL underestimated precipitation in the Amazon–Savannas flatlands. We found that the uncertainty in the rainfall representation is highly dependent on the region, with a higher influence of MP in the Colombian Pacific and PBL in the Amazon–Savannas flatlands. When analyzing rainfall-related processes, the selection of both MP and PBL parameterizations exerted a large influence on the simulated lower tropospheric moisture flux and moisture convergence. PBL schemes significantly influenced the downward shortwave radiation, with MYNN simulating a greater amount of low clouds, which decreased the radiation income. Furthermore, latent heat fluxes were greater for YSU, favoring moist convection and rainfall. MP schemes had a marked impact on vertical velocity. Specifically, Morrison MP showed stronger convection and higher precipitation rates, which is associated with a greater latent heat release due to solid-phase hydrometeor formation. This study provides insights into assessing physical parameterizations in numerical models and suggests key processes for rainfall representation in NWSA.

Longwave Radiative Feedback Due To Stratiform and Anvil Clouds

AbstractStudies have implicated the importance of longwave (LW) cloud‐radiative forcing (CRF) in facilitating or accelerating the upscale development of tropical moist convection. While different cloud types are known to have distinct CRF, their individual roles in driving upscale development through radiative feedback is largely unexplored. Here we examine the hypothesis that CRF from stratiform regions has the greatest positive effect on upscale development of tropical convection. We do so through numerical model experiments using convection‐permitting ensemble WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) simulations of tropical cyclone formation. Using a new column‐by‐column cloud classification scheme, we identify the contributions of five cloud types (shallow, congestus, and deep convective; and stratiform and anvil clouds). We examine their relative impacts on longwave radiation moist static energy (MSE) variance feedback and test the removal of this forcing in additional mechanism‐denial simulations. Our results indicate the importance stratiform and anvil regions in accelerating convective upscale development.

Optimization of a PM2.5 automatic monitoring network based on the modeling approach – A case study in Long An province, Vietnam

Abstract Currently, fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution is one of the well-recognized serious environmental health risks. In particular, PM2.5 has remarkably impacted the human respiratory, cardiovascular, and circulatory systems. Vietnam has frequently ranked among the countries with the highest annual mean PM2.5 levels in Southeast Asia and worldwide. Thus, building a real-time continuous ambient PM2.5 monitoring network is an important environmental management tool to reduce health effects attributable to PM2.5 exposure. Nevertheless, measurement locations of an air quality monitoring (AQM) network depend strongly on meteorological conditions in the area and sensitivity to local primary emission sources, which significantly determines the AQM network’s operational efficiency. This study aims to estimate and optimize outdoor PM2.5 monitoring sites of an automatic air quality monitoring (AAQM) network using a system of low-cost sensors in Long An province, based on the spatio-temporal distribution assessment results of PM2.5 concentrations from WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model)/CMAQ (the Community Multiscale Air Quality) models. The prominent study outcomes have shown that the 2018 average PM2.5 concentration in Long An province exceeded the threshold of QCVN 05:2023/BTNMT (25 μg/m3) from 5.6 to 7.9 times. Moreover, this study has proposed four optimal monitoring sites (AQ1, AQ2, AQ3, and AQ4) for the automatically real-time PM2.5 observation in the areas of Tan An City, Can Giuoc District, the ring roads 3 and 4, and Kien Tuong Town. The study has provided an important scientific basis and support for local air quality management activities; furthermore, the newly proposed monitoring locations will complement the province’s periodic monitoring program towards 2025.

Improving Hurricane Intensity and Streamflow Forecasts in Coupled Hydrometeorological Simulations by Analyzing Precipitation and Boundary Layer Schemes

Abstract Hurricanes have been the most destructive and expensive hydrometeorological event in U.S. history, causing catastrophic winds and floods. Hurricane dynamics can significantly impact the amount and spatial extent of storm precipitation. However, the complex interactions of hurricane intensity and precipitation and the impacts of improving hurricane dynamics on streamflow forecasts are not well established yet. This paper addresses these gaps by comprehensively characterizing the role of vertical diffusion in improving hurricane intensity and streamflow forecasts under different planetary boundary layer, microphysics, and cumulus parameterizations. To this end, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) atmospheric model is coupled with the WRF hydrological (WRF-Hydro) model to simulate four major hurricanes landfalling in three hurricane-prone regions in the United States. First, a stepwise calibration is carried out in WRF-Hydro, which remarkably reduces streamflow forecast errors compared to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gauges. Then, 60 coupled hydrometeorological simulations were conducted to evaluate the performance of current weather parameterizations. All schemes were shown to underestimate the observed intensity of the considered major hurricanes since their diffusion is overdissipative for hurricane flow simulations. By reducing the vertical diffusion, hurricane intensity forecasts were improved by ∼39.5% on average compared to the default models. These intensified hurricanes generated more intense and localized precipitation forcing. This enhancement in intensity led to ∼16% and ∼34% improvements in hurricane streamflow bias and correlation forecasts, respectively. The research underscores the role of improved hurricane dynamics in enhancing flood predictions and provides new insights into the impacts of vertical diffusion on hurricane intensity and streamflow forecasts. Significance Statement Despite significant recent improvements, numerical weather prediction models struggle to accurately forecast hurricane intensity and track due to many reasons such as inaccurate physical parameterization for hurricane flows. Furthermore, the performance of existing physics schemes is not well studied for hurricane flood forecasting. This study bridges these knowledge gaps by extensively evaluating different physical parameterizations for hurricane track, intensity, and flood forecasts using an atmospheric model coupled with a hydrological model. Then, a reduced diffusion boundary layer scheme is developed, making remarkable improvements in hurricane intensity forecasts due to the overdissipative nature of the considered schemes for major hurricane simulations. This reduced diffusion model is shown to significantly enhance hurricane flood forecasts, indicating the significance of hurricane dynamics on its induced precipitation.

Using the Multiple-Sensor-Based Frost Observation System (MFOS) for Image Object Analysis and Model Prediction Evaluation in an Orchard

Accurate frost observations are crucial for developing and validating frost prediction models. In 2022, the multi-sensor-based automatic frost observation system (MFOS), including an RGB camera, a thermal infrared camera, a leaf wetness sensor (LWS), LED lighting, and three glass plates, was developed to replace the naked-eye observation of frost. The MFOS, herein installed and operated in an apple orchard, provides temporally high-resolution frost observations that show the onset, end, duration, persistence, and discontinuity of frost more clearly than conventional naked-eye observations. This study introduces recent additions to the MFOS and presents the results of its application to frost weather analysis and forecast evaluation in an orchard in South Korea. The NCAM’s Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was employed as a weather forecast model. The main findings of this study are as follows: (1) The newly added image-based object detection capabilities of the MFOS helped with the extraction and quantitative comparison of surface temperature data for apples, leaves, and the LWS. (2) The resolution matching of the RGB and thermal infrared images was made successful by resizing the images, matching them according to horizontal movement, and conducting apple-centered averaging. (3) When applied to evaluate the frost-point predictions of the numerical weather model at one-hour intervals, the results showed that the MFOS could be used as a much more objective tool to verify the accuracy and characteristics of frost predictions compared to the naked-eye view. (4) Higher-resolution and realistic land-cover and vegetation representation are necessary to improve frost forecasts using numerical grid models based on land–atmosphere physics.

A Hybrid Machine Learning/Physics‐Based Modeling Framework for 2‐Week Extended Prediction of Tropical Cyclones

AbstractPrediction of tropical cyclones (TCs) beyond a week is challenging but of great importance for disaster prevention and mitigation. We propose a hybrid machine learning (ML)/physics‐based modeling framework to extend TC forecasts to 2 weeks. This framework integrates a recently launched ML‐based global weather prediction model (Pangu) and the high‐resolution physics‐based regional weather research and forecasting (WRF) model. The Pangu model shows promise in enhancing the accuracy of predictions for large‐scale circulation and TC tracks, while the high‐resolution WRF model is capable of capturing the core processes underlying TC evolution. To capitalize on the complementary strengths of both the Pangu and WRF models in predicting TCs, the framework comprises three key components: downscaling the Pangu model using the WRF model, adjusting large‐scale circulation through spectral nudging driven by the Pangu model forecasts, and updating sea surface temperature using an ocean mixed‐layer model. These components also ensure the framework's feasibility for real‐time TC forecasting. The prediction skill of the framework has been demonstrated for five long‐lived TCs across various basins from 2018 to 2023. Results indicate that the hybrid ML/physics‐based modeling framework decreased the 2‐week mean TC track and intensity errors by 59% and 32% compared to the global numerical weather prediction models, by 2% and 59% compared to the ERA5‐driven Pangu model, and by 32% and 23% compared to the ERA5‐driven WRF model, respectively. This implies that the framework has great potential to be used for 2‐week extended prediction of TCs.

Influence of Terrestrial Nitrogen Dynamics on Mesoscale Near‐Surface Meteorological Fields

AbstractThe influence of biogeochemical cycles, particularly the nitrogen cycle, on near‐surface meteorological fields is a critical yet understudied aspect of regional climate modeling. Neglecting such interactions may compromise the accurate representation of vegetation growth and hydrological processes in climate models, consequently affecting the simulated regional near‐surface climate conditions. In order to quantify such effects, we coupled the nitrogen‐augmented Noah‐MP land surface model with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model v4.1.2 (hereafter WRF‐CN) for regional climate modeling. Compared to the default WRF simulation without nitrogen dynamics, the WRF‐CN simulated net primary productivity, gross primary productivity (GPP), and leaf area index (LAI) were all higher in the study region. Because WRF underestimated the observed GPP and LAI due to the fixed nitrogen limitation of plant growth, these higher estimations improved WRF‐CN's performance in modeling GPP and LAI, which translated into improved simulations of near‐surface climate. Specifically, for the 2‐m air temperature, compared to WRF, WRF‐CN reduced the mean absolute error and root mean square error by 14.45% and 14.19%, respectively, while increased the Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient by 7.23%, with the most pronounced improvements in the regions dominated by croplands. Our findings shed light on the crucial interactions between biogeochemical processes and near‐surface meteorological conditions, emphasizing the significance of incorporating terrestrial nitrogen dynamics in regional climate models. These insights contribute to advancing our understanding of climate system dynamics and improving the accuracy of climate predictions at the mesoscale.

Roles of synoptic characteristics and microphysics processes on the heavy rain event over Beijing region during 29 July to 2 August 2023

The “23.7” event, an extreme rainstorm that affected North China from July 29 to 2 August 2023, was simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, version 4.2. We focus on dynamically diagnosing and analyzing the mass and latent heat budgets of rainwater during the extreme precipitation event on July 31 in the Beijing area, where the hourly rainfall reached an extraordinary 111.8 mm. Generally, the model effectively simulated the rainstorm, enabling further assessment of the extreme precipitation. Results indicated that under the combined influence of three major weather systems—the residual circulation of Typhoon Doksuri (a low-pressure system after typhoon landfall), the embryonic stage of Typhoon Khanun, and the North China high-pressure dam—a continuous influx of moisture and energy was transported to the North China region, promoting heavy precipitation. Application of vorticity equation diagnostics indicates that the horizontal transport term is the primary source term. Mass balance analysis reveals that the primary source of rainwater is the accretion of cloud droplets by rain, and the condensation of water vapor into cloud droplets is the main contributor to the latent heat.

Improving Typhoon Muifa (2022) Forecasts with FY-3D and FY-3E MWHS-2 Satellite Data Assimilation under Clear Sky Conditions

This study investigates the impacts of assimilating the Microwave Humidity Sounder II (MWHS-2) radiance data carried on the FY-3D and FY-3E satellites on the analyses and forecasts of Typhoon Muifa in 2022 under clear-sky conditions. Data assimilation experiments are conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the Three-Dimensional Variational (3D-Var) Data Assimilation method to compare the different behaviors of FY-3D and FY-3E radiances. Additionally, the data assimilation strategies are assessed in terms of the sequence of applying the conventional and MWHS-2 radiance data. The results show that assimilating MWHS-2 data is able to enhance the dynamic and thermal structures of the typhoon system. The experiment with FY-3E MWHS-2 assimilated demonstrated superior performance in terms of simulating the typhoon’s structure and providing a prediction of the typhoon’s intensity and track than the experiment with FY-3D MWHS-2 did. The two-step assimilation strategy that assimilates conventional observations before the radiance data has improved the track and intensity forecasts at certain times, particularly with the FY-3E MWHS-2 radiance. It appears that large-scale atmospheric conditions are more refined by initially assimilating the Global Telecommunication System (GTS) data, with subsequent satellite data assimilation further adjusting the model state. This strategy has also confirmed improvements in precipitation prediction as it enhances the dynamic and thermal structures of the typhoon system.

Enhancing Urban Flood Forecasting: Integrating Weather Forecasts and Hydrological Models

Precipitation data in urban hydrological models are derived from an ideal stormwater model, which has some uncertainties and limited prediction times. Therefore, to reliably forecast urban flooding, prolong prediction time periods, and better support associated research in urban flood forecasting, a combination of weather forecasts and urban hydrology is necessary. By applying comprehensive cloud microphysical schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to the predecessor torrential rainfall associated with Typhoon Khanun (2017), this study evaluated different configurations of atmospheric-hydrological simulations based on the WRF model and InfoWorks ICM. Results showed that the microphysics scheme could significantly affect spatial and temporal distributions of the simulated torrential rainfall. Generally, the combination of WRF and NSSL schemes produced better performance. Applying the NSSL scheme to the WRF model and combining it with the InfoWorks ICM system can reproduce torrential rainfall and urban flood formations.

A study on radial characteristics of North Indian Ocean tropical cyclones and associated energy indices through numerical modeling

The structural characteristics of North Indian Ocean (NIO) Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are emphasized in this study by adopting Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical modeling framework. TCs that occurred during 2001–2020, were simulated using WRF model in the CTRL, and scatterometer wind vortices from four satellites were considered for assimilation purpose in the WRFDA experiment. Considering the results from both types of simulations, best-track data sets, and ERA5 global analyses, several aspects including radial parameters, the thermodynamic and dynamic properties, horizontal structure, etc., were analyzed besides developing some robust empirical relationships. In the process, model performance was evaluated too. The study emphasized on sub-basin, sectorial, intensity-based, range-based, and frequency-based analysis for the radial parameters. Also, yearly, and seasonal variations were considered, inter-comparisons were carried out, the inter-relationships with numerous environmental and storm-related characteristics have been explored. The study provides valuable insights into the TC radial characteristics over NIO, and associated thermodynamic and dynamic behavior. It upholds that the relatively greater intensity TCs occurring during October–November months are mostly observed to have genesis over the East Arabian Sea (EAS), Middle Bay of Bengal (MBOB), and North Bay of Bengal (NBOB) sectors. The EAS region exhibits higher values for the energy indices and maximum sustained wind (MSW), compared to the Western Arabian Sea (WAS), while the maximum convective potential values show an opposite trend. The assimilation of scatterometer wind data has a limited impact on model results, although it is more effective over the Arabian Sea (AS) than the Bay of Bengal (BOB). WRFDA could provide a relatively better estimate for most of the TC radial features over both AS and BOB. The extensive analysis of TC radial features facilitated developing several empirical relationships involving radial characteristics, MSW and minimum central pressure, which are valid for NIO region.

Projected near-surface wind speed and wind energy over Central Asia using dynamical downscaling with bias-corrected global climate models

Wind energy development in Central Asia can help alleviate drought and fragile ecosystems. Nevertheless, current studies mainly used the global climate models (GCMs) to project wind speed and energy. The simulated biases in GCMs remain prominent, which induce a large uncertainty in the projected results. To reduce the uncertainties of projected near-surface wind speed (NSW) and better serve the wind energy development in Central Asia, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with bias-corrected GCMs was employed. Compared with the outputs of GCMs, dynamical downscaling acquired using the WRF model can better capture the high- and low-value centres of NSWS, especially those of Central Asia's mountains. Meanwhile, the simulated NSWS bias was also reduced. For future changes in wind speed and wind energy, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario, NSWS during 2031–2050 is projected to decrease compared with that in 1986–2005. The magnitude of NSWS reduction during 2031–2050 will reach 0.1 m s−1, and the maximum reduction is projected to occur over the central and western regions (>0.2 m s−1). Furthermore, future wind power density (WPD) can reveal nonstationarity and strong volatility, although a downward trend is expected during 2031–2050. In addition, the higher frequency of wind speeds at the turbine hub height exceeding 3.0 m s−1 can render the plain regions more suitable for wind energy development than the mountains from 2031 to 2050. This study can serve as a guide in gaining insights into future changes in wind energy across Central Asia and provide a scientific basis for decision makers in the formulation of policies for addressing climate change.

Pathways of ice multiplication in nimbostratus clouds during the Indian summer monsoon

The present study illustrates the microphysical parameters of nimbostratus clouds during the Indian summer monsoon using airborne and radar observations conducted as part of the Cloud Aerosol Interaction and Precipitation Enhancement Experiment (CAIPEEX), and simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The study also analyzes the impact of secondary ice production (emphasizing the microphysical pathways of Hallett-Mossop (HM) as represented in the models) on cloud processes using model sensitivity simulations. The effect of possible pathways of riming during the HM process is the focus of the sensitivity simulations. Aircraft observations showed higher ice particle concentrations in the Hallett–Mossop zone (−3 °C to - 8 °C) along with the existence of smaller and larger cloud droplets, rimed needles, columns, and snow particles. Observations strongly suggested the active presence of the HM process in this cloud. The observed mean values of microphysical parameters including liquid water content, ice number concentrations, and maximum vertical velocity, agreed well with model simulations. The number concentration and water content of ice crystals and snow decreased in the HM zone during the HM inactive case. A reduction in rainfall is also observed in the absence of HM. HM increases convection as it causes a sudden increase in the number concentration of small ice particles, which causes rainwater to freeze quickly and water vapour to be consumed by diffusional growth. Latent heating is produced by both effects, which energizes the convection.