A study on radial characteristics of North Indian Ocean tropical cyclones and associated energy indices through numerical modeling

Abstract

The structural characteristics of North Indian Ocean (NIO) Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are emphasized in this study by adopting Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical modeling framework. TCs that occurred during 2001–2020, were simulated using WRF model in the CTRL, and scatterometer wind vortices from four satellites were considered for assimilation purpose in the WRFDA experiment. Considering the results from both types of simulations, best-track data sets, and ERA5 global analyses, several aspects including radial parameters, the thermodynamic and dynamic properties, horizontal structure, etc., were analyzed besides developing some robust empirical relationships. In the process, model performance was evaluated too. The study emphasized on sub-basin, sectorial, intensity-based, range-based, and frequency-based analysis for the radial parameters. Also, yearly, and seasonal variations were considered, inter-comparisons were carried out, the inter-relationships with numerous environmental and storm-related characteristics have been explored. The study provides valuable insights into the TC radial characteristics over NIO, and associated thermodynamic and dynamic behavior. It upholds that the relatively greater intensity TCs occurring during October–November months are mostly observed to have genesis over the East Arabian Sea (EAS), Middle Bay of Bengal (MBOB), and North Bay of Bengal (NBOB) sectors. The EAS region exhibits higher values for the energy indices and maximum sustained wind (MSW), compared to the Western Arabian Sea (WAS), while the maximum convective potential values show an opposite trend. The assimilation of scatterometer wind data has a limited impact on model results, although it is more effective over the Arabian Sea (AS) than the Bay of Bengal (BOB). WRFDA could provide a relatively better estimate for most of the TC radial features over both AS and BOB. The extensive analysis of TC radial features facilitated developing several empirical relationships involving radial characteristics, MSW and minimum central pressure, which are valid for NIO region.