North Indian Ocean tropical cyclone activities influenced by the Indian Ocean Dipole mode

Abstract

Using Joint Typhoon Warning Center tropical cyclone (TC) track data over the North Indian Ocean (NIO), National Centers for Environmental Prediction monthly reanalysis wind and outgoing long-wave radiation data, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration sea surface temperature data from 1981 to 2010, spatiotemporal distributions of NIO TC activity and relationships with local sea surface temperature (SST) were studied with statistical diagnosis methods. Results of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of NIO TC occurrence frequency show that the EOF1 mode, which accounts for 16% of total variance, consistently represents variations of TC occurrence frequency over the whole NIO basin. However, spatial distributions of EOF1 mode are not uniform, mainly indicating variations of westward-moving TCs in the Bay of Bengal. The prevailing TC activity variation mode oscillates significantly on a quasi-5 year interannual time scale. NIO TC activity is notably influenced by the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) mode. When the Indian Ocean is in a positive (negative) phase of the IOD, NIO SST anomalies are warm in the west (east) and cold in the east (west), which can weaken (strengthen) convection over the Bay of Bengal and eastern Arabian Sea, and cause anticyclonic (cyclonic) atmospheric circulation anomalies at low levels. This results in less (more) TC genesis and reduced (increased) opportunities for TC occurrence in the NIO. In addition, positive (negative) IOD events may strengthen (weaken) westerly steering flow over the Bay of Bengal, which further leads to fewer (more) westward-moving TCs which appear in regions west of 90°E in that bay.