Water Resources Vulnerability Assessment Research Articles

Hydrogeochemical characterization based water resources vulnerability assessment in India's first Ramsar site of Chilka lake

A limnological site is significantly characterized by rich biological, chemical, and physical properties of the environment and is also described as the epitome of a large aquatic ecosystem. During the last few decades, the Chilka lake Ramsar site has experienced substantial degradation of water quality with associated deterioration of aquatic biodiversity. Our study aims to quantify the VWRM of the Chilka lake Ramsar region using the most reliable MLAs, namely ANN and RF, with the help of seventeen hydro-chemical properties of lake water. The produced map is validated through six validating measures (ROC-AUC- 0.89, Sensitivity-0.90, Specificity-0.78, PPV-0.78, NPV-0.88, Taylor diagram (r)-0.94), which depict that ANN is the most reliable ML algorithm in assessing the VWRM of the concerned region followed by RF. The prepared map of our study revealed that the eastern part was remarkably high to very high vulnerable zone covered area with 22.41% and 7.19%, respectively.

Assessing the Vulnerability of Water Resources System Using VSD-SD Coupling Model: A Case of Pearl River Delta

Water plays an essential role in social and economic sustainable development, and the relationship between socio-economic development and water resources sustainable utilization has been an important issue in water resources management. We aim to propose a water resources vulnerability assessment index with the dimensions of exposure, sensitivity and adaptability, and establish a water resources system model over the Pearl River Delta network river region based on the Vulnerability Scoping Diagram (VSD) framework and System Dynamics (SD) model. The city of Zhongshan, which is located in the Pearl River Delta is used as a case study. The vulnerability of the water resources in Zhongshan from 2021 to 2050 is simulated in four different scenarios (normal, technical innovation, social economic improvement, and comprehensive development models). The results showed that the vulnerability in all four scenarios span three grades in 30 years, including moderately vulnerable, slightly vulnerable, and not vulnerable. Among them, similar trends were found between scenarios 1 and 3, and between scenarios 2 and 4. Furthermore, the vulnerability level in scenarios 2 and 4 was lower than that in scenarios 1 and 3. The vulnerability of both scenarios 2 and 4 decreased first and then increased, with the average values of 24.64 and 27.63, respectively. Scenario 2 experienced 7 years of not vulnerable (2034 to 2040) and 23 years of slightly vulnerable (2021–2033, 204–2050), scenario 4 experienced 5 years of not vulnerable (2032–2036), 21 years of slightly vulnerable (2021–2031, 2037–2046), and 4 years of moderately vulnerable (2047–2050). Although the vulnerability of scenario 4 was slightly worse than scenario 2, its adaptability to economic and social development, water resources, and water environment was much higher than scenario 2. Considering the extent of socio-economic development and the level of adaptability of the local water resources and water environment, the study concluded that the comprehensive development model is more suitable for cities in the network river area. In this scenario, sustainable water use and management can be made possible through policy regulation that encourages higher water efficiency, sewage reuse rate, and centralized sewage treatment rate.

Vulnerability assessment of water resources in a karst mountainous area based on GIS/RS technology: a case study of Guiyang, Southwest China

Abstract Water resource vulnerability in ecologically vulnerable karst areas is a key issue for regional sustainable development and the sustainable use of water resources. In this study, geographical information system (GIS) and remote sensing (RS) technology were employed to explore the vulnerability characteristics and spatial distribution of water resources in Guiyang City. The water resource vulnerability indicator in Guiyang ranged from 0.10 to 0.59, with an average value of 0.26. Yanglongsi Town, in Xifeng County, in the northern and main central urban area exhibited the highest water resource vulnerability, whereas Huaxi District in the south, and regions around Hongfeng Lake and Baihua Lake, in Qingzhen City, exhibited the lowest water resource vulnerability. Water resource vulnerability was predominantly mild, accounting for 35.85% of the total land area, followed by moderate (28.99%), with some non-vulnerable areas (13.60%) and very few extremely vulnerable areas (3.20%). Compared with traditional methods, the proposed index selection and assessment methods, based on GIS/RS, are both scientific and intuitive. In addition, the results are presented in detail, accurately reflecting the actual situation of water resource system vulnerability.

Vulnerability assessment of water resources to climate variability in Noelmina watershed, Timor Island, Indonesia

The hydrological conditions in Timor Island, Indonesia, are characterized by limited surface water potential. The presence of erratic seasonal changes, which is an indicator of climate variability, exacerbates this situation. Efforts to sustain water resources are often constrained by limited data on climate variability’s impact on water resources. The objective of this study is to appraise the vulnerability of water resources to climate variability in Noelmina watershed. Temperature and precipitation data from the last three decades were used to describe climate variability. This study used the vulnerability concept developed by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It is defined as a combination of exposure and sensitivity minus adaptive capacity. In this concept, groups of criteria-indicators that represent exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, such as watershed conditions; water demand and community dependence on land; human quality, socio-economic conditions, and water catchment areas, were presented spatially, given weights and values, then overlaid to get indexes and vulnerability maps. Results revealed that annual temperature shows an increasing trend, whereas annual precipitation has been falling during the last three decades. Vulnerability maps showed that the middle region of the watershed has the highest vulnerability level, followed by the upper and downstream watershed regions.

Assessment and Prediction of Water Resources Vulnerability Based on a NRS-RF Model: A Case Study of the Song-Liao River Basin, China.

The vulnerability of water resources is an important criterion for evaluating the carrying capacity of water resources systems under the influence of climate change and human activities. Moreover, assessment and prediction of river basins’ water resources vulnerability are important means to assess the water resources security state of river basins and identify possible problems in future water resources systems. Based on the constructed indicator system of water resources vulnerability assessment in Song-Liao River Basin, this paper uses the neighborhood rough set (abbreviated as NRS) method to reduce the dimensionality of the original indicator system to remove redundant attributes. Then, assessment indicators’ standard values after dimensionality reduction are taken as the evaluation sample, and the random forest regression (abbreviated as RF) model is used to assess the water resources vulnerability of the river basin. Finally, based on data under three different future climate and socio-economic scenarios, scenario predictions are made on the vulnerability of future water resources. The results show that the overall water resources vulnerability of the Song-Liao River Basin has not improved significantly in the past 18 years, and the overall vulnerability of the Song-Liao River Basin is in the level V of moderate to high vulnerability. In the future scenario 1, the overall water resources vulnerability of the river basin will improve, and it is expected to achieve an improvement to the level III of moderate to low vulnerability. At the same time, the natural vulnerability and vulnerability of carrying capacity will increase significantly in the future, and the man-made vulnerability will increase slowly, which will deteriorate to the level V of moderate to high vulnerability under Scenario 3. Therefore, taking active measures can significantly reduce the vulnerability of nature and carrying capacity, but man-made vulnerability will become a bottleneck restricting the fragility of the overall water resources of the river basin in the future.

Vulnerability assessment of water resources using GIS, remote sensing and SWAT model – a case study: the upper part of Dong Nai river basin, Vietnam

ABSTRACT Water resources vulnerability assessment provides the basis for the policymakers and the stakeholders regarding the state of the river basin to be focused for its better management. This research aims to assess the vulnerability index (VI) of the upper part of the Dong Nai (UPDN) river basin, which plays a crucial role for the socio-economic development of Ho Chi Minh City and 10 other provinces in the Southeast Vietnam, as well as its sub-basins. This study accounts from the year 1994 to 2030 (36 years) by using an integrated solution between the GIS, remote sensing (RS) and SWAT model in collaboration with guidelines prepared by United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and Peking University. Results from the land cover classification of Landsat images in the period of 1994–2020 revealed that the forest area decreased by 324,586 ha (approximately 29.4% of the basin area) and greatly influenced the VI. The UPDN basin’s water vulnerability was a moderate level of which VI was 0.276, 0.303 and 0.310 in 1994, 2004 and 2014, respectively. By 2030, the projected VI value could expect to be 0.318 under the climate change scenarios of the representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5). At the sub-basins, Dak Nong and Dak R‘Keh were two of the most vulnerable sub-basins of which VIs have could reach approximately 0.4 categorized as highly vulnerable areas. The results evidenced that the integrated techniques could be an efficient approach to provide useful information on the status of water resources to stakeholders in evaluating comprehensive options in terms of sustainable water resources management.

Integrated Water Resources Vulnerability Assessment: A Multidimensional Approach and Geographic Information System Based in Fès, Meknès, and Ifrane Perimeters, Morocco

Water resources are disproportionately distributed, and more and more problems related to this precious resource are being reported around the world due to anthropogenic pressures and global environmental changes. This paper focuses on assessing the vulnerability of water resources in an integrated way, by taking into account hydrological, environmental, socio-economic and pollution factors, in order to delineate sensitive areas of water resources under a geographic information system. The framework for assessing the water resources vulnerability in the Fès, Meknès, and Ifrane perimeters was based on a participatory approach through a survey. The data collected on the identified factors are then processed under ArcGIS tool to aggregate the normalized value into a water resources vulnerability index. The result shows that the degree of vulnerability of water resources in most of the study area is considered to be at the "threshold" to "non-vulnerable". However, three (3) main areas were considered to be "moderately vulnerable" to "highly vulnerable" precisely in the South of the city of Meknes (Zone 1), from the West of the city of Fès (Zone 2), and finally the Dayet Ifrah area (Zone 3). The sensitivity analysis showed that five factors have more impact on the overall water resources vulnerability map: topography, poverty, water withdrawal, population density, and access to drinking water. The result of this study could help integrated water resources management planners take action to improve the overall water quantity and quality in the area, and it can be extended to a larger scale like regional, national or cross-country.

Research on the vulnerability of ecological water resources under continuous precipitation based on spatial heterogeneity

In order to overcome the problem of high error of water resources vulnerability assessment results existing in traditional assessment methods, this paper proposes an assessment method of ecological water resources vulnerability under continuous precipitation environment based on spatial heterogeneity. First of all, the analysis of the effect of continuous precipitation of ecological water environment, in the judgment of water resources developed on the basis of the degree of spatial heterogeneity of the ecological vulnerability of water resources evaluation system, and then set the natural factors and human factors, load factors for the primary index, water quality, water quantity, flood, drought, as secondary indexes, and combining the entropy weight method and the linear weighted method for evaluation of the ecological vulnerability of water resources. The experimental results show that the absolute error of the vulnerability index evaluation results calculated by this method is always less than 0.04, and the relative evaluation error is always less than 3%, indicating that the evaluation results of this method are more reliable and more practical.

Water Resources Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptive Management Based on Projection Pursuit Model

Xiang, X. and Li, Q., 2020. Water resources vulnerability assessment and adaptive management based on projection pursuit model. In: Yang, Y.; Mi, C.; Zhao, L., and Lam, S. (eds.), Global Topics and New Trends in Coastal Research: Port, Coastal and Ocean Engineering. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 103, pp. 431–435. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208.As the global climate continues to change, the demand for water resources in human society has been continuously expanding. Water shortages, frequent water pollution and natural disasters have become more and more serious. The issue of water resources security has aroused widespread concern in society. At present, the vulnerability of water resources is the main criterion for measuring the security status of water resources. The vulnerability assessment of water resources mainly studies the current vulnerability of water resources in the region and can reflect the degree of damage to water resources. The adaptive management is to improve the safety of water resources and optimize the future choice of water resources in the study area. Therefore, the assessment of water resources vulnerability combined with adaptive management is an important means to improve the safety of water resources. This article first defines the vulnerability and adaptive management of water resources in the basin based on the existing research results and the particularity of the water resources in the basin, and elaborate their connotations in detail. A water resources vulnerability assessment system based on DPSIR conceptual model is proposed. Secondly, by analyzing the influencing factors of water resources in the river basin, using the projection pursuit model and accelerated genetic algorithm (RAGA), a functional model of water vulnerability assessment based on RAGA projection pursuit was established. Finally, taking Hubei Province as an example, an empirical analysis was conducted to evaluate the vulnerability of water resources in Hubei Province, and a strategy for adaptive management of water resources was proposed.

Vulnerability assessment of water resources in Hilly Region of Nepal

Vulnerability assessment of water resources in Hilly Region of Nepal

Analysis of Water Resources Vulnerability Assessment Tools

Analysis of Water Resources Vulnerability Assessment Tools

Vulnerability assessment of water resources – Translating a theoretical concept to an operational framework using systems thinking approach in a changing climate: Case study in Ogallala Aquifer

Water is an essential natural resource. Among many stressors, altered climate is exerting pressure on water resource systems, increasing its demand and creating a need for vulnerability assessments. The overall objective of this study was to develop a novel tool that can translate a theoretical concept (vulnerability of water resources (VWR)) to an operational framework mainly under altered temperature and precipitation, as well as for population change (smaller extent). The developed tool had three stages and utilized a novel systems thinking approach. Stage-1: Translating theoretical concept to characteristics identified from studies; Stage-2: Operationalizing characteristics to methodology in VWR; Stage-3: Utilizing the methodology for development of a conceptual modeling tool for VWR: WR-VISTA (Water Resource Vulnerability assessment conceptual model using Indicators selected by System’s Thinking Approach). The specific novelties were: 1) The important characteristics in VWR were identified in Stage-1 (target system, system components, scale, level of detail, data source, frameworks, and indicator); 2) WR-VISTA combined two vulnerability assessments frameworks: the European’s Driver–Pressure–State–Impact–Response framework (DPSIR) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s framework (IPCC’s); and 3) used systems thinking approaches in VWR for indicator selection. The developed application was demonstrated in Kansas (overlying the High Plains region/Ogallala Aquifer, considered the “breadbasket of the world”), using 26 indicators with intermediate level of detail. Our results indicate that the western part of the state is vulnerable from agricultural water use and the eastern part from urban water use. The developed tool can be easily replicated to other regions within and outside the US.

Water resources vulnerability assessment in the Adriatic Sea region: the case of Corfu Island.

Cross-border water resources management and protection is a complicated task to achieve, lacking a common methodological framework. Especially in the Adriatic region, water used for drinking water supply purposes pass from many different countries, turning its management into a hard task to achieve. During the DRINKADRIA project, a common methodological framework has been developed, for efficient and effective cross-border water supply and resources management, taking into consideration different resources types (surface and groundwater) emphasizing in drinking water supply intake. The common methodology for water resources management is based on four pillars: climate characteristics and climate change, water resources availability, quality, and security. The present paper assesses both present and future vulnerability of water resources in the Adriatic region, with special focus on Corfu Island, Greece. The results showed that climate change is expected to impact negatively on water resources availability while at the same time, water demand is expected to increase. Water quality problems will be intensified especially due to land use changes and salt water intrusion. The analysis identified areas where water resources are more vulnerable, allowing decision makers develop management strategies.

Vulnerability assessment of water resources and adaptive management approach for Lesvos Island, Greece

In the Aegean Islands, the continued availability of freshwater resources is of fundamental concern. This study analyzes the freshwater system for the Island of Lesvos by simultaneously conceptualizing various issues surrounding it using vulnerability assessment as a quantitative tool. The endpoint approach to vulnerability assessment was applied by developing a numerical expression based on a set of 25 quantitative and qualitative indicators; the indicators were identified as proxies to reflect the various conspicuous and inconspicuous issues surrounding water resources of the Island. In addition, concurrent visualization of the indicators was carried out by plotting radar charts. The assessment indicated that the Lesvian hydrogeological system has significant vulnerabilities emanating from both natural and anthropogenic pressures in addition to a poor adaptive capacity to counter perturbations; this was corroborated by the composite water vulnerability index which was calculated to be 0.69. Based on the analysis of the assessment results, the priority management targets and existing management optimization tools, the authors propose a quantitative framework that could aid the development of an effective methodology for addressing problems in water resource management; this approach couples adaptive water management with vulnerability assessment. The proposed methodology may represent a tool for identification of better solutions to water management–decision problems and/or provide important insights during decision making in similar environments.

Water Resources Vulnerability Assessment of MENA Countries Considering Energy and Virtual Water Interactions

Scarce water resources of MENA countries are under multiple stressors: population growth, growing economies, land use changes, changing lifestyles or climatic variability. The vulnerability of such resources is often analysed using simple, sector-specific indicators. This study develops a holistic country-based vulnerability assessment of water resources using an integrated index. This Country Vulnerability Index of Water Resources (CVIW) considers cross-sectoral linkages as a way to mitigate vulnerability. The index provides a macro-level overview of the status of water resources in the MENA region using regional analysis and individual country vulnerability profiles. The index is a composite of the socio-economic and natural components. It considers solutions to reduce vulnerability by importing virtual water or using available energy resources. The assessment provides an overview of water resources threats in the region considering the capacity of the water management to absorb such threats.

Integrated assessment of water resources vulnerability under climate change in Haihe River Basin

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to assess the water resources vulnerability (WRV) rationally in Haihe River Basin (HRB) using set pair analysis (SPA) theory. Design/methodology/approach – An improved intelligent set pair analysis (IISPA) model is established, in which intelligent SPA theory is introduced and the weights are determined by use of the maximum entropy principle and the improved analytic hierarchy process method. The index systems and criteria of WRV assessment in terms of water cycle, socio-economy, and ecological environment are established based on the analysis of sensibility and adaptability. Findings – The authors apply IISPA to the WRV assessment of seven administrative divisions in HRB. Results show IISPA can fully take advantage of certain and uncertain information compared with fuzzy assessment and topsis assessment models. For present situation, Shanxi, Shandong, Tianjing, Inner Mongolia, Hebei are higher, Henan and Beijing are the middle vulnerability. But Henan will become worse under climate change scenario II and IV. Research limitations/implications – The analysis results may be affected by the limited climate change data. Practical implications – It is helpful for further research to the complexity analysis of water resources system. Social implications – This paper will have an important impact on water resources sustainable utilization. Originality/value – This is the first time to utilize IISPA method to analyze the WRV of seven administrative divisions in HRB. This paper provides an important theoretical support for water resources management.

A Bayesian Method for Water Resources Vulnerability Assessment: A Case Study of the Zhangjiakou Region, North China

Water resources vulnerability (WRV) assessment is an important basis for maintaining water resources security in a basin. In this paper, considering the complexity of the water resources system and the uncertainty of the assessment information, a method based on the Bayesian theory was developed for performing WRV assessments while using the constructed indicator system. This system includes four subsystems, the hydrological subsystem, the socioeconomic subsystem, the ecoenvironmental subsystem and the hydraulic engineering subsystem. The WRV degree for each subsystem and the integrated water resources system were assessed. Finally, the assessment results and the characteristics of the Bayesian method were compared with those of the grey relational analysis method and the parametric-system method. The results showed the following. (1) The WRV of the integrated water resources system of the entire Zhangjiakou region was very high; Zhangjiakou City and Xuanhua County have tendencies to belong to Extreme WRV, with probabilities of 26.8% and 25%, respectively, while the other seven administrative counties have tendencies to belong to High WRV, with probabilities ranging from 24.6% to 27%. (2) Compared with the parametric-system method and the grey relational analysis method, the Bayesian method is simple and can effectively address the uncertainty issues with the reliable WRV assessment results.

Applications of Variable Fuzzy Set Theory and GIS for Water Resources Vulnerability Assessment of Yellow River Delta

The Yellow River delta is the Lord area of national high efficient ecological-economic region and Shandong peninsula blue economic region, and it has an important strategic status. This paper integrates variable fuzzy set theory with geographic information technology (GIS) to construct the vulnerability evaluation model of Yellow River delta water resources. First, The study area is partitioned into different evaluation zones (sub-area) based on the spatial recognition technology of GIS; Second, the evaluation index system is formulated in terms of the two aspects of water resources vulnerability, natural and human factors; Finally, city of Dongying is selected as study area, which accounts for 93% of the Yellow River delta, to verify the proposed model. The results indicate that the water resources vulnerability of the Yellow River delta greatly changes in space, the region of coastal, Xiaoqing river and Zhimai river shows high vulnerability, while the region along the Yellow River has low vulnerability. In conclusion, the proposed model can effectively identify water resource vulnerability in space.

Decadal climate variability and vulnerability of water resources in arid regions of Northwest China

Decadal climate change has evidently posed serious threats and challenges to water resource management across arid regions in China. Thus, vulnerability assessment of water resources has been considered vital to adapt to or cope with the adverse effects of climate change. This paper investigated spatial patterns of decadal climate change and water resources variability in the arid regions of Northwest China based on a GIS analysis. The Budyko hypothesis was used to investigate the climate sensitivity of basin streamflow. A framework was proposed to assess the vulnerability of water resources as a function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptability. Results indicated that a significant increase in precipitation and water resources (both surface water resources and groundwater recharge) occurred primarily in Xinjiang Province after the 1980s. Water utilization ratio in arid regions was very high, and groundwater abstraction substantially increased as it exceeded the exploitable volume in the Hexi Corridor, the Tuha Basin, and the north of the Tianshan Mountain. Exposure of water resources to drought in arid regions decreased from the 1960s to the 2000s. The sensitivity of water resource response to precipitation changes varied between regions. Water resources were more sensitive to precipitation variability in the river basins in the Hexi Corridor and inner Mongolia. In most arid regions in China, water resources were evaluated with low adaptability and high or severe vulnerability in the 2000s. In the future, the precipitation is projected to increase significantly under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios. Particularly, water vulnerability will be significantly reduced as the precipitation increases in most river basins under the RCP8.5 scenario. Water resources in the rivers in the Qaidam Basin, the Qinhai Lake Basin, the inner Mongolia, and the north of Kunlun Mountain will have low or medium vulnerability in the 2030s and 2050s. However, in the Tuha Basin and Hexi Corridor, vulnerability will remain severe in the 2050s despite the significant increase in precipitation and implementation of water-saving measures. Hence, measures that will facilitate sustainable water resource management must be identified and implemented.

Water Balance Model for Vulnerability Assessment of Water Resources in Strumica River Basin

Water resources are the most important part of the ecosystems in the Republic of Macedonia and are sensitive to climate change with regard to both, quantity and quality. Also, they are the most spatially diverse and are closest to the area of human activities. Due to the geographical location a major portion (84%) of surface water is domestic. This paper presents the vulnerability assessment of the water resources on climate change for Strumica river basin in south eastern part of the Republic of Macedonia conducted within the Third National Communication. Statistical trend analyses have been obtained on basic parameters such as air temperature, precipitation, and runoff with special attention to the southeast part of the country that was assessed within the First and Second National Communication as the most vulnerable region in the country. It was concluded that maximum runoff has no significant changes in either short-term or long-term trends. Statistical trends of the recorded precipitation and surface runoff indicate that the last decade can be recognized as a hydrological wet period. An approximate water balance model was conducted presenting the current condition (2000/2010) and projected condition (2025). In summary, as in other countries, the water resources in the Republic of Macedonia are vulnerable to potential changes in climate because of increasing demands, the sensitivity of simple water management systems to fluctuations in precipitation and runoff, and the considerable time and expenses required to implement adaptation measures.