Abstract
Water resources vulnerability (WRV) assessment is an important basis for maintaining water resources security in a basin. In this paper, considering the complexity of the water resources system and the uncertainty of the assessment information, a method based on the Bayesian theory was developed for performing WRV assessments while using the constructed indicator system. This system includes four subsystems, the hydrological subsystem, the socioeconomic subsystem, the ecoenvironmental subsystem and the hydraulic engineering subsystem. The WRV degree for each subsystem and the integrated water resources system were assessed. Finally, the assessment results and the characteristics of the Bayesian method were compared with those of the grey relational analysis method and the parametric-system method. The results showed the following. (1) The WRV of the integrated water resources system of the entire Zhangjiakou region was very high; Zhangjiakou City and Xuanhua County have tendencies to belong to Extreme WRV, with probabilities of 26.8% and 25%, respectively, while the other seven administrative counties have tendencies to belong to High WRV, with probabilities ranging from 24.6% to 27%. (2) Compared with the parametric-system method and the grey relational analysis method, the Bayesian method is simple and can effectively address the uncertainty issues with the reliable WRV assessment results.
Highlights
Under the influence of climate change and human activities, many countries in the world are faced with water problems, such as water shortages, water pollution and frequent occurrences of extreme hydrological events, which have put pressure on water availability [1, 2]
Water resources vulnerability (WRV) Assessment Results of Subsystems and the Integrated Water Resources System Based on the Bayesian Method
The results showed that (1) the vulnerability of the region was very high; Zhangjiakou City and Xuanhua County belonged to Extreme WRV with the probabilities of 26.8% and 25.0%, respectively, while other counties belonged to High WRV (24.6%–27.0%)
Summary
Under the influence of climate change and human activities, many countries in the world are faced with water problems, such as water shortages, water pollution and frequent occurrences of extreme hydrological events, which have put pressure on water availability [1, 2]. Water resources vulnerability (WRV) can be defined as the ease with which a water resources system can be threatened and damaged by both natural disasters and human activities. Once this damage occurs, it is difficult for the system to recover to its former status. Having addressed water security issues that are associated with WRV and provided references
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