Carrying Capacity Of Water Resources Research Articles

Evaluating water resource carrying capacity in Pearl River-West River economic Belt based on portfolio weights and GRA-TOPSIS-CCDM

Research on the spatial differences in the water resource carrying capacity (WRCC) and their causes can effectively address the imbalance of water resources and enhance the economic, social, and ecological properties of the basin. Sixteen cities in the Pearl River-West River Economic Belt (PR-WR EB) were selected for this study from 2017 to 2021. Based on the theoretical Driving-Pressure-State-Impact-Response model and related research, an evaluation model for WRCC was constructed. The weights obtained from the entropy method and CRITIC method were combined and assigned using the geometric method, after which they were applied to a model that combines the grey relational analysis (GRA), technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS), and coupling coordination degree model (CCDM) to calculate the evaluation value of the WRCC subsystem. Meanwhile, the spatial variability and spatial correlation of WRCC were analyzed using the natural breakpoint method, Moran's index, clustering characteristics, and outlier index. The overall WRCC of the PR-WR EB showed stable characteristics from 2017 to 2021. In terms of spatial correlation, significant spatial clustering characteristics were observed. The subsystem coupling degree ranged between 0.6 and 1.0 for all subsystems, thus exhibiting good coupling efficiency; meanwhile, the coordination degree was low and ranged between 0.17 and 0.36.

Evaluation of Carrying Capacity of Water Resource in the Heihe River Basin Based on Game Theory and Cloud Model

To optimize the allocation of water resources and ensure sustainable water resources management, we evaluated the carrying capacity of water resources in the Heihe River Basin. 16 evaluation indicators were selected from the social, economic, ecological, and water resource systems to construct an evaluation system of the carrying capacity. The combination weight and membership degree were determined using the game theory combined with the weighting method and normal cloud model. The water resource utilization efficiency during 21 years was estimated by analyzing influencing factors and development trends of carrying capacity of water resources. The water use rate was important in the carrying capacity, and indicators such as urbanization rate, per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP), sewage discharge per 10000 yuan, and water consumption per 10000 yuan of industrial output value were important factors affecting the carrying capacity. The carrying capacity of the Heihe River Basin increased from a severe overload status (Level I) in 2000 to a good status (Level V) in 2021. In the other years, the status remained at Level IV. The carrying capacity was improved. The result of TOPSIS confirmed the consistency of the development trend of the carrying capacity and the appropriateness of the developed evaluation model in this study. The model based on the game theory and cloud model can be used to effectively guide the sustainable development of water resources and improve the carrying capacity of water resources of the Heihe River Basin. The results of this study serve as a reference for establishing policies to save water resources and evaluate the carrying capacity of water resources.

Risk analysis and assessment of water resource carrying capacity based on weighted gray model with improved entropy weighting method in the central plains region of China

The issue of global water shortage is a serious concern. The scientific evaluation of water resource carrying capacity (WRCC) serves as the foundation for implementing measures to protect water resources. In addition, most of the studies are based on the analysis and research of regional WRCC from the aspects of water quantity and water quality. There are few studies on the four aspects of water resources endowment conditions, society, economy and ecological environment, which is difficult to scientifically and accurately reflect the analysis and evaluation of regional WRCC by the four systems. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct a deeper discussion and Analysis on this topic. This study presents a WRCC index system and corresponding ranking criteria based on 20 influencing factors from four aspects: water resources endowment (WRE), economy, society, and ecological environment. In addition, by combining the improved entropy weighting method (EWM) with gray correlation analysis, the weighted gray technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS) model is proposed for analyzing and assessing WRCC risk. Finally, the WRCC of the study area from 2012 to 2021 is comprehensively evaluated in the central plains region of China (CPROC) as an example. The results show that the comprehensive evaluation obtained a multi-year average value of 0.2935, and the water resources shortage in the CPROC is generally in grade III status. The comprehensive average value of Beijing is 0.345, and the comprehensive average value of Henan is 0.397. The overall degree of water resources shortage is in the state of grade V shortage, Shaanxi is in the state of grade IV shortage, and the degree of water resources in Tianjin and Shanxi is relatively good. This study provides corresponding scientific basis and methodological guidance for the sustainable utilization of water resources and healthy socio-economic performance in the CPROC.

Quantitative Evaluation Method and Response Mechanism of Shallow Groundwater in Multi-Mine Mining of “Soil–Rock” Composite Water-Resisting Strata

The sustainability of shallow groundwater systems, pivotal to maintaining ecosystem equilibrium and facilitating the sustainable development of mine sites, is the core of various dynamic indicators in response to mining activity and mining area planning. This study quantitatively evaluates the impact of mining activities on shallow groundwater systems at the orefield scale, taking the equivalent permeability coefficient (EPC) of “Soil–Rock” composite water-resisting strata and the response mechanism of shallow groundwater in multi-mine mining as the entry points. A modified six-step evaluation method for the response mechanism of shallow groundwater in multi-mine mining is proposed using mathematical statistics, numerical simulation, and theoretical analysis methods. The method is used to evaluate the sustainability of the shallow water system in the Yushen mining area, to study the distribution characteristics of the water resource carrying capacity (WRCC) in different mining areas of the Yushen area, and to analyze the number of mines allowed to be mined under geological conditions with a WRCC of more than moderate bearing capacity. The results show that when the mining area of a mine in the Yushen area is set to 1 × 108, 7.5 × 107, 5 × 107, and 2.5 × 107 m2, as the mining area of the designed mine decreases, the area bearing surplus gradually increases, with values of 1.70 × 109, 1.98 × 109, 2.28 × 109, and 2.58 × 109 m2. The number of mines allowed to be mined under geological conditions with a WRCC above moderate capacity is 20, 31, 51, and 112, respectively.

Coupling coordination and driving mechanisms of water resources carrying capacity under the dynamic interaction of the water-social-economic-ecological environment system

The water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) is a complex and comprehensive system that is jointly influenced by water resources, society, the economy and the ecological environment. Previous WRCC studies have primarily focused on estimating the overall level of regional WRCC. Few studies have explored the interactions among the various elements in the WRCC system and their influence on the WRCC evolution. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is, on the one hand, to explore the dynamic interactive relationships within the WRCC system from the perspectives of water resources, society, the economy and the ecological environment using a coupling coordination degree model and a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model, and on the other hand, to determine the evolutionary driving mechanism of the WRCC using the geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model to improve the regional WRCC. Taking 21 cities in Guangdong Province as an example, the results show that (1) the coupling coordination degree among the four WRCC subsystems in Guangdong Province shows an overall upward trend from 2009 to 2020, and the coordination between water resources utilization and other subsystems needs to be further strengthened. (2) The economic subsystem is the core of the WRCC system with reinforcing effects on both water resources and social subsystems but significant inhibitory effects on the ecological environment subsystem. Notably, the development of the ecological environment plays a crucial role in promoting social and economic development. (3) From 2009 to 2020, the development of the WRCC in Guangdong Province is initially driven by social and economic development, followed by economic development and ecological environmental protection, and then mainly by ecological environmental protection, which gradually becomes the primary driving force. This study provides a new entry point for studying the regional WRCC and formulating targeted measures for enhancing the regional WRCC.

Analysis of sustainable water resource management and driving mechanism in arid region: a case study of Xinjiang, China, from 2005 to 2020.

The long-term dynamic comprehensive evaluation of the water resource carrying capacity (WRCC) and the analysis of its potential driving mechanism in arid areas are contemporary research issues and technical means of mitigating and coordinating the conflict between severe resource shortages and human needs. The purpose of this study was to explore the distribution of the WRCC and the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of drivers in arid areas based on an improved two-dimensional spatiotemporal dynamic evaluation model. The results show that (1) the spatial distribution of the WRCC in Xinjiang, China, is high in the north, low in the south, high in the west, and low in the east. (2) From 2005 to 2020, the centers of gravity of the WRCC in northern and southern Xinjiang moved to the southeast and west, respectively, and the spatial distribution exhibited slight diffusion. (3) The factors influencing the WRCC exhibit more obvious spatial and temporal heterogeneity. The domestic waste disposal rate and ecological water use rate were the main factors influencing the WRCC in the early stage, while the GDP per capita gradually played a dominant role in the later stage. (4) In the next 30 years, the WRCC in Xinjiang will increase. The results provide a theoretical reference for the sustainable development of water resources in arid areas.

Optimization of Forest and Grass Vegetation Distribution in the Aksu River Basin by Water Resources Carrying Capacity

In arid areas, vegetation is the basis for maintaining the virtuous cycle of ecosystems, while water resources are the key factor restricting the survival of vegetation communities. The balance between water resources and vegetation is related to the sustainable development of ecological benefits and economic benefits in arid areas. Although research on the carrying potential of vegetation in arid areas has been emphasized, there is still a lack of spatial analysis of different vegetation types over large areas. Therefore, this study takes precipitation as the basic source of water resources, calculates the amount of available water resources in the basin from the available effective precipitation and available irrigation water, and it analyzes the spatial distribution of forest and grass vegetation types under the water resources constraint, combined with the ecological water demand of different vegetation types and based on the principle of “Water to determine the Vegetation”. The results showed that the ecological water demand of each vegetation type was as follows: Forest > Shrub Vegetation > Grassland Vegetation > Desert Vegetation. The range of comprehensive available water resources of vegetation was from 0 to 221.71 mm, which decreased with the altitude gradient. Then, the spatial distribution pattern of vegetation types constrained by the water resources in the Aksu River Basin showed a striped distribution from north to south, with shrub vegetation in the high-altitude mountainous area, grassland vegetation in the low-altitude area, and desert vegetation in the desert plain area, respectively, accounting for 29.05%, 10.74%, and 53.45% of the total basin. This research approach provides a scientific basis for the planning of forest and grass vegetation construction in arid regions.

Dynamic Successive Assessment of Water Resource Carrying Capacity Based on System Dynamics Model and Variable Fuzzy Pattern Recognition Method

The water resource carrying capacity (WRCC) system comprises multiple complex and non-linear interactions related to society, economy, water resources, and the water environment. A comprehensive comprehension of its internal mechanisms is essential for the continual enhancement of the regional WRCC. This study concentrates on the temporal and spatial variability of the WRCC to investigate a method for dynamic successive assessment. Firstly, the pressure–state–response (PSR) framework is used to develop a systematic and causal indicator system. Then, the variable fuzzy pattern recognition (VFPR) model and an analytic hierarchy process—entropy (AHP-E) model are combined to successively and dynamically assess WRCC. The proposed method is applied to the dynamic successive assessment of WRCC in Hebei Province, and it is obtained that the poor water resource carrying capacity in Hebei Province is mainly due to the basic attribute of the decision on the water resource shortage, but Hebei Province actively adopts a variety of measures to save water and pressurize mining, which has made the province’s water resource carrying capacity tend to become better gradually. Simultaneously, a system dynamics model (SD) for water resource carrying capacity was established based on an analysis of the model structure. Moreover, three scenarios were designed, including existing continuation, high-efficiency water saving, and cross-regional water transfer. Subsequently, each scenario is further categorized into high- and low-speed economic development and population growth schemes. Afterward, simulations and predictions were conducted for a total of six schemes spanning from 2023 to 2030. The results indicate that if the current development model is adopted, the water resource carrying capacity will continue to maintain low levels. It was concluded that the high-speed development of the economy and population, the efficient water conservation, and the interbasin transfer scenario (scenario 2 with high speed) are the best choices for the sustainable development of water resources and social economy in Hebei.

Simulation of population size and economic scale supportable by the Yellow River’s available freshwater in 2030 under multiple scenarios

The Yellow River plays a crucial role in China’s socioeconomic development and ecological security. The amount of freshwater available for allocation to the nine provinces of the Yellow River basin (YRB) is expected to be 39.485 billion m3 in 2030, for a projected population of 0.13094 billion people. This study aimed to simulate the sustainable population size and economic scale attainable with the Yellow River’s restricted freshwater supply. We forecasted population size and economic scale under various scenarios using a water resource carrying capacity (WRCC) prediction model. Further, the most likely scenarios—high, moderate, and low development—were analyzed based on historical trends. The results showed that by 2030, the available freshwater could support population sizes of 0.16, 0.152, and 0.147 billion under the high-, moderate-, and low-development scenarios, respectively, all of which are greater than 0.13094 billion. Moreover, economic scales of CNY17.5 trillion ($2.52 trillion), CNY15.01 trillion ($2.18 trillion), and CNY13.2 trillion ($1.91 trillion) could be supported under the high-, moderate-, and low-development scenarios, respectively. This study’s contributions are that (1) using population size and economic scale to characterize WRCC overcomes the limitation of measuring WRCC with a dimensionless index; (2) quantifying WRCC overcomes the flaws of single-trend measurement; and (3) the scenarios paint a clear picture of the YRB’s future water security and socioeconomic development. Our findings could help steer the direction of future water-, population-, and economy-related policymaking.

Effects of a proposed hydraulic project on the surface water connectivity in Poyang Lake floodplain system, China: Numerical simulation and geostatistical analysis

Study RegionPoyang Lake, the largest freshwater lake in China, has been experiencing persistent shrinkage in recent years. Study FocusThe Poyang Lake Hydraulic Project (PLHP) was proposed to improve water resource and environment carrying capacity, its hydrological effects remain under investigation. This study combined a hydrodynamic model with geostatistical connectivity analysis, to quantify the influence of the PLHP on surface water connectivity in Poyang Lake. New Hydrological Insights for the RegionThe PLHP enlarges inundated areas most in the recession period (September-November), accounting for 85% of the total increase throughout the operating period (September-March), and enhances the interconnection probability within these inundated regions. Statistical analysis reveals that the Connectivity Function (CF) in low connectivity conditions (CF <0.4) can be significantly increased by 0.1–0.9, primarily in areas with lower topographies. While for the saucer-shaped sub-lakes, the PLHP can rarely extend the connecting processes between the main lake and sub-lakes in low-water-level conditions below 13 m, which is the lowest threshold height of most sub-lakes. Moreover, most isolated sub-lakes have merged into the main lake when the water level is higher than 14 m, thus the PLHP is no longer effective in this condition. Therefore, the enhancement effect of the PLHP on the connectivity of sub-lakes is restricted in both high- and low-water-level years, and is most pronounced in the medium-water-level year.

Analysis of the Water Resource Carrying Capacity in Guyuan City

To assess the water resource carrying capacity of Guyuan City, an analysis was conducted using the load index method, principal component analysis, and ecological water footprint method. A comprehensive analysis was carried out using these three methods to evaluate the current state of water resource carrying capacity in Guyuan City. The results indicate that the water resource carrying capacity in Guyuan City is mainly influenced by economic development factors, water supply–demand balance factors, and natural factors. During the period from 2002 to 2016, the water resource carrying capacity fluctuated in response to changes in the total water resources. However, from 2016 to 2021, it exhibited an increasing trend due to improvements in water resource utilization efficiency and effective water conservation measures. However, the water resource carrying capacity remains at a relatively low level, and it has consistently been in an overloaded state, with the development and utilization of water resources approaching their limits. Water scarcity in Guyuan City is a pressing concern, characterized by severe limitations on its potential for development and utilization. The persistent supply–demand imbalance is anticipated to impede the region’s pursuit of high-quality economic development in the foreseeable future.

Comprehensive evaluation of water resources carrying capacity in Henan Province based on entropy weight TOPSIS - coupling coordination - obstacle model.

This study aims to investigate the water resource carrying capacity (WRCC) of Henan Province, identify its main obstacles, and provide suggestions for optimizing its WRCC. The article constructs a WRCC evaluation system with 20 indicators for the four subsystems of water resources, economy, society, and ecology based on literature and the actual situation of Henan Province. The entropy weighted TOPSIS method is used to calculate the WRCC of Henan Province from 2005 to 2021. The coupling coordination model is used to explore the degree of coupling coordination among internal systems, while the obstacle model is used to study its restrictive influencing factors. The study found that (1) the WRCC fluctuated in a U-shaped pattern around 0.5 during the study period; (2) the coupling and coordination degree of each subsystem is generally good, except for 2012 and 2013, which showed basic coordination; (3) currently, the main obstacles to the WRCC are ecosystems and water resources. The main indicators are afforestation area, proportion of the tertiary industry, fertilizer usage, and urban sewage treatment rate. Therefore, Henan Province should take measures such as reducing fertilizer usage, standardizing urban sewage treatment, improving water efficiency, and optimizing industrial structure to optimize its WRCC and promote comprehensive utilization of water resources.

Simulation of population size and economic scale supportable by available freshwater in China in 2030

AbstractLimited water availability, population growth, and increasing water demand have resulted in freshwater crises in many countries, including China. In this paper, the water resource‐carrying capacity (WRCC) model simulated the trajectory of China's various systems, representing interactions among humans, water resources, and economics, among others. The results indicated that, at the national level, 700 billion m3 of available freshwater could support population sizes of 2.12, 1.96, and 1.85 billion, along with economic sizes of $40.65, $34.08, and $29.21 trillion, under high‐, moderate‐, and low‐development scenarios, respectively. And it also showed the population and economic size of each province across China under high‐, moderate‐, and low‐development scenarios. This study's WRCC‐based simulations can provide guidance for future policies related to water, population, and economics. Overall, contributions of this study include (1) a quantitative model related to freshwater security and water policies; (2) the model narratives that paint a better picture of China's future water security and socioeconomic development; (3) the conclusion that it is conducive to adjust water use rigid constraints with water policies; (4) an understanding that it is more intuitive to use population size and economic scale instead of dimensionless scores to characterize the state of WRCC. The WRCC model is instructive for the other counties or regions.

Assessing Water Resource Carrying Capacity and Sustainability in the Cele–Yutian Oasis (China): A TOPSIS–Markov Model Analysis

This study employs the Driving Force–Pressure–State–Response (DPSR) framework to establish an evaluation index system for the water resource carrying capacity (WRCC) in the Cele–Yutian Oasis (China). Utilizing the TOPSIS and obstacle degree models, we analyze the trends in the WRCC and its main hindrance factors in the Cele–Yutian Oasis from 2005 to 2020. Additionally, we employ the Markov model to investigate the dynamic changes in the land use types. The findings reveal that the most unfavorable WRCC status occurred in 2007, with a Grade IV rating (a mild overload). By 2020, the WRCC improved to a Grade III rating (critical), indicating a positive trajectory. However, persistent challenges for water resources remain, with a prolonged critical state. Over the past 15 years, the grassland area has decreased by 15.18%, and the forest area has decreased by 50%. The dynamic degree of grassland, forests, and water bodies is negative, signifying shifts to other land types, with water bodies undergoing the most significant change at −10.16%. Based on the outcomes of these two models, we propose regionally tailored measures to support sustainable development. These research results provide a scientific foundation for optimal water resource allocation and sustainable development in the Cele–Yutian Oasis Economic Belt.

Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources Carrying Capacity Using Venism

Purpose: Climate modification and population increase are threatening water supplies. The world's population have tripled ever since the turn of the century, nonrenewable energy demand has climbed by a ratio of 30, while occupational production had also risen by a ratio of 50.&#x0D; &#x0D; Theoretical Framework: Problem sizing and structure, model conceptualization, model implementation and testing, and scenarios analysis are the four phases of a conventional SD modeling framework.&#x0D; &#x0D; Methods: This indicates that as a result of occupational, agricultural, and urban usage, there is a rising demand for water and a diminishing supply of resources of sufficient quality. Due to the effects of climate change, unkind ocean smooth rose by 0.19 m among 1901 and 2010. Anthropogenic climate change is known to have impacted the incidence and magnitude of flooding. Globally, the recent identification of growing vogues in precipitation and large flows in specific basins suggests a larger impact.&#x0D; &#x0D; Results: This research article takes stock of the evaluation of the influences of climate change on water transport capacity, in particular using the Vensim model. In this research review, for the analysis or estimate of the impacts of climate change on the water transport capacity, Vensim was investigated using a system dynamics technique to simulate the basin slopes of the supply systems to study climatic effects.&#x0D; &#x0D; Conclusions: It was concluded that the combination of different adaptation strategies, such as desalination, the construction of dams and the promotion of water conservation, has the greatest effects in reducing the impacts of climate change.

Modelling the Carrying Capacity of Water Resources for Sustainable Water Ecology Using Vensim

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to address the growing challenges associated with water resources due to population growth, rapid economic expansion, and the imbalance between supply and demand. It aims to investigate the importance of water as a fundamental resource for ecological preservation and sustainable economic development.&#x0D; &#x0D; Design/Methodology/Approach: In this study, a comprehensive approach was taken to analyze water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) using the Vensim modeling tool. The research methodology involves considering the multifaceted roles of water resources within the complex ecological, environmental, societal, and economic systems, as well as their interrelationships with other system components.&#x0D; &#x0D; Findings: The findings of the study highlight the critical need for increasing investment in environmental protection and initiating new water storage projects to enhance the region's water resource carrying capacity. This research underscores the importance of sustainable water ecology in addressing the challenges posed by population growth and economic expansion.&#x0D; &#x0D; Research, Practical &amp; Social Implications: This study has significant implications for research, practical applications, and societal well-being. It emphasizes the importance of understanding and managing water resources in a sustainable manner to ensure ecological health, economic development, and social progress. The findings can inform policy decisions and guide actions to address water resource challenges.&#x0D; &#x0D; Originality/Value: The originality and value of this study lie in its holistic approach to assessing WRCC and its consideration of the complex interactions between water resources, ecology, environment, society, and the economy. The research provides insights into the unique challenges faced by regions with increasing water resource demands and pollution and offers a modeling tool for measuring and enhancing water carrying capacity.

Study on Spatial and Temporal Differences of Water Resource Sustainable Development and Its Influencing Factors in the Yellow River Basin, China

This study conducted a comprehensive analysis of the spatial and temporal variations of water resource carrying capacity (WRCC) and its influencing factors in the significant Yellow River Basin in China. Combining the composite weighting TOPSIS method with geographic detector analysis, the water resource carrying capacity index for nine provinces within the Yellow River Basin was evaluated from 2005 to 2021. The results reveal a continuous upward trend in water resource carrying capacity in the Yellow River Basin, with significant improvements attributed to increased investment in scientific research, enhanced water use efficiency, proactive water resource management, and environmental protection measures. The study also identified differences in water resource carrying capacity among provinces, highlighting the significant impact of factors such as economic development, population density, industrial wastewater discharge, and precipitation. The findings underscore the importance of balancing economic growth with environmental protection. Specifically, Inner Mongolia and Ningxia provinces showed remarkable progress, while Qinghai and Sichuan provinces exhibited slower growth, primarily due to geographical location and industrial development status. Based on these findings, it is recommended that research investment be strengthened, economic structures be optimized, water resource management be improved, and environmental protection measures be enhanced.

Natural Vegetation Area Design in an Arid Region Based on Water Resource Carrying Capacity—Taking Minqin County as an Example

Water resource management and natural vegetation distribution status are important for the sustainable development of agricultural, ecological and socio-economic systems in arid areas, and the carrying area of vegetation is limited by the established water resources. This study proposed the concept of natural vegetation area design in arid areas based on water resource design carrying capacity and took Minqin County belonging to a typical inland arid area as an example and socio-economic water consumption, ecological water consumption and water resource utilization efficiency in the study area as the main selected factors as well as reference indicators. By calculating the water ecological footprint, water resource carrying and water resource ecological pressure index of the main natural vegetation design area in Minqin County in 2017, we analyzed and evaluated its water resource carrying status and predicted the natural vegetation areas in 2025. The results showed that there was a large gap (the increase was 13.25–9.29%) between the actual area of various types of natural vegetation in 2017 and that in 2025. The water resource utilization was more effective in various types of natural vegetation in Minqin County under the stable development model, and the water ecological deficit was approaching 0, but the utilization of forest trees other than shrubs and herbaceous plants was in an insecure state, and the water ecological deficit was less than 0. The water resource allocation schemes under the restoration model and the optimization model were safer ecological development models for natural vegetation in Minqin County, which was in a state of water-ecological surplus, and the water-ecological surplus value was greater than 0. Thus, it could be seen that coordinating the water resource supply among various types of natural vegetation in an arid area was a preferred strategy to ensure the sustainable development of regional ecology as well as an effective countermeasure to improve the water use efficiency of natural vegetation in the county to a certain extent. This study aimed to evaluate the carrying capacity of a natural vegetation area and the water pressure index under certain water supply conditions, which could provide a reasonable theoretical reference for water resource management in arid areas.

Quantitative Diagnosis of Water Resources Carrying Capacity Obstacle Factors Based on Connection Number and TOPSIS in Huaibei Plain

To further quantitatively assess the water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) system and analyze and identify the regional water resources carrying state and the physical mechanism of the state change, WRCC and obstacle factor diagnosis were carried out. In this paper, we proposed the mobility matrix to determine the connection number components, considered the dynamic attributes of the difference degree coefficient, and calculated it using the semi-partial subtraction set pair potential and triangular fuzzy number, so as to construct the quantitative diagnosis method of regional WRCC obstacle factors based on the connection number and TOPSIS. The results applied to six cities in the Huaibei Plain showed that the WRCC fluctuated around grade 2 and was in a poor state, which was mainly due to the insufficient support force; the water resources carrying state of the six cities gradually improved from 2011 to 2018, but the state became worse in 2019, which was related to the low precipitation in that year, the reduction in water resources, and the high degree of water resource utilization. The WRCC of Fuyang and Huainan was worse than that of the other four cities; over the 9 years, the average grades of Fuyang and Huainan were 2.26 and 2.43, while those of Huainan, Bozhou, Suzhou, and Bengbu were 2.19, 2.12, 2.05, and 2.05, respectively. The key obstacles limiting the improvement in the WRCC of the Huaibei Plain were per capita water resources, annual water production modulus, per capita water supply, vegetation coverage ratio, utilization ratio of water resources, water consumption per 104 yuan value-added by industry, and population density. In time, the key obstacle factors in neighboring years generally tended to have similarity, and conversely appeared as a difference; in space, neighboring regions showed similarity and conversely presented as a difference. The results of this study can offer technical support and a decision-making basis for water resources management in the Huaibei Plain. The method constructed in this paper is extremely interpretive, easy to calculate, highly sensitive, and reliable in application results, which opens up a new perspective for the rational determination of the connection number and the difference degree coefficient and provides a new intelligent way to determine the state of a complex set pair system and its causal mechanism analysis and diagnosis of obstacle factors.

Comprehensive Evaluation of Agricultural Water Resources’ Carrying Capacity in Anhui Province Based on an Improved TOPSIS Model

In recent years, China has made significant progress in rural revitalization and agricultural modernization. Agricultural water resources play a crucial role in promoting high-quality agriculture and ensuring the sustainable use of water resources. This study focuses on assessing the status of agricultural water resources’ carrying capacity in Anhui Province and promoting their sustainable use. The evaluation index weights were determined using the improved structural entropy weighting method under the traditional TOPSIS model. The gray weighted TOPSIS model was then constructed using the gray correlation matrix to evaluate the carrying capacity of agricultural water resources in Anhui Province. The findings indicate that the carrying capacity of agricultural water resources in Anhui Province has shown a fluctuating upward trend from 2000 to 2020. The lowest carrying capacity was observed in 2001, with a comprehensive score of 0.2647, while the highest was in 2020, with a comprehensive score of 0.7004. According to the M-K trend test, the carrying capacity of agricultural water resources in Anhui Province is expected to increase in the future. Specifically, the carrying capacity in the southern region of Anhui Province is gradually increasing, while that in the northern region is decreasing. The central cities have remained relatively stable in recent years. To ensure the sustainable use of agricultural water resources, it is recommended that Anhui Province increase the construction of agricultural water resource management and field water conservation facilities, as well as promote the construction of high-standard farmland. These measures will contribute to the high-quality development of agriculture and the coordinated spatial use of water resources.