Evaluation of Carrying Capacity of Water Resource in the Heihe River Basin Based on Game Theory and Cloud Model

Abstract

To optimize the allocation of water resources and ensure sustainable water resources management, we evaluated the carrying capacity of water resources in the Heihe River Basin. 16 evaluation indicators were selected from the social, economic, ecological, and water resource systems to construct an evaluation system of the carrying capacity. The combination weight and membership degree were determined using the game theory combined with the weighting method and normal cloud model. The water resource utilization efficiency during 21 years was estimated by analyzing influencing factors and development trends of carrying capacity of water resources. The water use rate was important in the carrying capacity, and indicators such as urbanization rate, per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP), sewage discharge per 10000 yuan, and water consumption per 10000 yuan of industrial output value were important factors affecting the carrying capacity. The carrying capacity of the Heihe River Basin increased from a severe overload status (Level I) in 2000 to a good status (Level V) in 2021. In the other years, the status remained at Level IV. The carrying capacity was improved. The result of TOPSIS confirmed the consistency of the development trend of the carrying capacity and the appropriateness of the developed evaluation model in this study. The model based on the game theory and cloud model can be used to effectively guide the sustainable development of water resources and improve the carrying capacity of water resources of the Heihe River Basin. The results of this study serve as a reference for establishing policies to save water resources and evaluate the carrying capacity of water resources.