Comprehensive evaluation on water resource carrying capacity in karst areas using cloud model with combination weighting method: a case study of Guiyang, southwest China.

Abstract

It is important to maintain the sustainable development of water resources. Objective assessment on water resource carrying capacity (WRCC) is beneficial to the formulation of scientific and reasonable water management practices. In view of the problem that evaluation indicators of WRCC cannot describe the fuzziness and randomness, a cloud model was introduced into regional WRCC assessment. This study selected a typical karst area (Guiyang) as the research object to study WRCC by using cloud model with combination weighting method. WRCC was assessed from the following five dimensions: water environment subsystem, social subsystem, economic subsystem, ecological subsystem, and humanities (water resource management and policy regulation) subsystem. In addition, evaluation results after normalizing all of indicators data were also calculated. And these two kinds of evaluation results were compared with that of technique of order preference similarity to the ideal solution (TOPSIS), finding that evaluation results of cloud model were consistent with that of TOPSIS method. The cloud model realizes the transformation from qualitative evaluation to quantitative evaluation, which overcome insufficiencies of traditional evaluation methods in considering fuzziness and randomness. Results showed that during the period of 2008-2017, the state of WRCC in Guiyang was improving year by year, increasing from the serious overload carrying capacity level in 2008 to the strong carrying capacity level in 2017 (serious overload-overload-critical-weak carrying capacity-strong carrying capacity). However, some certain evaluation indicators are still in danger situation, such as population natural growth rate and use of the fertilizer per unit cultivated area, which needs to be further enhanced and improved. Moreover, the contradiction among economic development, population growth, and water resources is becoming increasingly apparent. To ensure the effective utilization of water resources in Guiyang, reasonable policies and measures should be formulated and put into effect. Research results could provide certain reference for the sustainable development of regional water resources.