Analysis of the Water Resource Carrying Capacity in Guyuan City

Abstract

To assess the water resource carrying capacity of Guyuan City, an analysis was conducted using the load index method, principal component analysis, and ecological water footprint method. A comprehensive analysis was carried out using these three methods to evaluate the current state of water resource carrying capacity in Guyuan City. The results indicate that the water resource carrying capacity in Guyuan City is mainly influenced by economic development factors, water supply–demand balance factors, and natural factors. During the period from 2002 to 2016, the water resource carrying capacity fluctuated in response to changes in the total water resources. However, from 2016 to 2021, it exhibited an increasing trend due to improvements in water resource utilization efficiency and effective water conservation measures. However, the water resource carrying capacity remains at a relatively low level, and it has consistently been in an overloaded state, with the development and utilization of water resources approaching their limits. Water scarcity in Guyuan City is a pressing concern, characterized by severe limitations on its potential for development and utilization. The persistent supply–demand imbalance is anticipated to impede the region’s pursuit of high-quality economic development in the foreseeable future.