Trend analysis and obstacle factor of inter provincial water resources carrying capacity in China: from the perspective of decoupling pressure and support capacity.

Abstract

The high distribution of water resources among provinces in China considerably impacts the development of society and economy in each region. Thus, it is of great practical significance to examine the water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) of each Chinese province. This paper constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system for the WRCC from two aspects: pressure and support. First, it analyzes dynamic changes in the WRCC of 31 Chinese provinces in China by using the decoupling model (DM). Second, it analyzes the key factors that hinder the improvement of WRCC by using the obstacle degree model (ODM). The study found that there are significant inter-provincial differences in China's WRCC. Provinces with greater natural water resources have a higher WRCC. Under the condition of similar natural water resources, WRCC in economically developed provinces is higher. From 2008 to 2015, China's overall WRCC has been increasing. Moreover, three-fifth of China's provinces can be classified as Upward-type (Upward I, Upward II, and Upward III) provinces and their WRCC is in a good state by considering the decoupling type and trend of WRCC in two periods together. The main obstacle factors hindering the improvement of the WRCC are total water resources ([Formula: see text]), water supply per capita ([Formula: see text]), total water supply ([Formula: see text]), forest cover rate ([Formula: see text]), soil erosion control area ([Formula: see text]), water consumption saving ([Formula: see text]), and water usage penetration rate ([Formula: see text]). This study can provide a scientific basis for understanding change trend of WRCC in Chinese provinces and improve their WRCC.