Warming Trend Research Articles

Increased Warming Efficiencies of Lake Heatwaves Enhance Dryland Lake Warming over China

Lake surface water temperature (LSWT) has significantly increased over China and even globally in recent decades due to climate change. However, the responses of LSWTs to climate warming in various climatic regions remain unclear due to the limited lake observations. Satellite-observed LSWT data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) dataset were extended using the air2water model. This research aimed to investigate summer LSWT trends across various climatic zones in China, shedding light on the complex interplay between surface air temperatures and LSWT from 1950 to 2020. The results demonstrate robust model performance, with high Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients, affirming its capability to simulate LSWT variability. Regional disparities in LSWT patterns are identified, revealing notable warming trends in dryland lakes, particularly in central Inner Mongolia. Notably, the study unveils a substantial increase in the intensity and duration of lake heatwaves, especially in semi-arid regions. Dryland lake heatwaves emerge as dominant contributors to intensified LSWT warming, showcasing stronger and longer-lasting events than humid regions. The research highlights a positive feedback loop between lake warming and heatwaves, further amplifying dryland LSWT warming. These findings underscore the vulnerability of dryland lakes to climate change and signal the potential ramifications of increased greenhouse gas concentrations.

Historical and projected response of Southeast Asian lakes surface water temperature to warming climate

The temperature of surface and epilimnetic waters, closely related to regional air temperatures, responds quickly and directly to climatic changes. As a result, lake surface temperature (LSWT) can be considered an effective indicator of climate change. In this study, we reconstructed and investigated historical and future LSWT across different scenarios for over 80 major lakes in mainland Southeast Asia (SEA), an ecologically diverse region vulnerable to climate impacts.Five different predicting models, incorporating statistical, machine and deep learning approaches, were trained and validated using ERA5 and CHIRPS climatic feature datasets as predictors and 8-day MODIS-derived LSWT from 2000 to 2020 as reference dataset. Best performing model was then applied to predict both historical (1986–2020) and future (2020–2100) LSWT for SEA lakes, utilizing downscaled climatic CORDEX-SEA feature data and multiple Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP). The analysis uncovered historical and future thermal dynamics and long-term trends for both daytime and nighttime LSWT.Among 5 models, XGboost results the most performant (NSE 0.85, RMSE 1.14 °C, MAE 0.69 °C, MBE -0.08 °C) and it has been used for historical reconstruction and future LSWT prediction. The historical analysis revealed a warming trend in SEA lakes, with daytime LSWT increasing at a rate of +0.18 °C/decade and nighttime LSWT at +0.13 °C/decade over the past three decades. These trends appeared of smaller magnitude compared to global estimates of LSWT change rates and less pronounced than concurrent air temperature and LSWT increases in neighbouring regions. Projections under various RCP scenarios indicated continued LSWT warming. Daytime LSWT is projected to increase at varying rates per decade: +0.03 °C under RCP2.6, +0.14 °C under RCP4.5, and +0.29 °C under RCP8.5. Similarly, nighttime LSWT projections under these scenarios are: +0.03 °C, +0.10 °C, and +0.16 °C per decade, respectively. The most optimistic scenario predicted marginal increases of +0.38 °C on average, while the most pessimistic scenario indicated an average LSWT increase of +2.29 °C by end of the century.This study highlights the relevance of LSWT as a climate change indicator in major SEA's freshwater ecosystems. The integration of satellite-derived LSWT, historical and projected climate data into data-driven modelling has enabled new and a more nuanced understanding of LSWT dynamics in relation to climate throughout the entire SEA region.

Can arctic migrants adjust their phenology based on temperature encountered during the spring migration? The case of the greater snow goose

The reproductive phenology of many long-distance migrants breeding at high latitudes remains unresponsive or responds only slightly to climate warming. In order to adjust migration speed and arrival time on the breeding grounds, environmental cues encountered during the migration must be related to conditions prevailing at the breeding site. However, heterogeneity in rate of climate warming across latitudes may hamper the ability of birds to adjust their migration speed adequately. We examined to what extent temperatures encountered at stopovers were a good predictor of temperatures at subsequent stopovers and at the breeding site in greater snow geese (Anser caerulescens atlanticus), an Arctic species that showed little change in its breeding phenology over the past 3 decades. We also examined temperature trends at various stopovers used by geese and at the breeding site over a 40-year period. We found that warming was stronger at the Arctic stopovers and the breeding site than at southern staging areas. The mean temperature and rate of temperature change encountered at the southern stopover, where this species accumulates most of its body reserves, was weakly correlated to temperatures prevailing at more northern stopovers and the breeding site located 3,000 km further north. Correlations in temperatures between stopovers and the breeding site increased with decreasing distance between sites and as geese moved further north. Lastly, laying date was strongly related to temperature during the arrival and pre-laying period on the breeding grounds but not to temperatures encountered at stopovers during migration. Temperatures encountered along the migratory route are thus a poor predictor of temperatures prevailing at the breeding site in any given year except when geese are getting close to their breeding grounds. This may be a major constraint preventing geese from adjusting their migratory schedule to conditions on their breeding grounds and may explain why their reproductive phenology did not change despite a warming trend at the breeding site.

Multispecies population-scale emergence of climate change signals in an ocean warming hotspot

Abstract Ocean waters of the Northeast US continental shelf have warmed rapidly in recent years, with sea surface temperatures rising 2.5 times faster than those of the global oceans. With this strong warming trend, the frequency and duration of marine heatwaves have increased. These temperature changes stood out as a distinct warm temperature regime during the 2010s. During this decade, fish population characteristics also differed from the past. Species distribution shifts were detected for many species, demonstrating one way species could adapt to warming conditions. However, for most species, distribution shifts were insufficient to avoid warmer surface or bottom temperatures. As species occupied warmer habitats, growth patterns aligned with expectations for warming temperatures. Consistent with the temperature-size rule, some species exhibited faster growth at early life stages but plateaued at smaller body sizes; other species, however, experienced reduced growth across all ages, indicating thermal stress. Finally, population productivity indexed by the recruit-to-spawner ratio declined significantly during the 2010s for some populations. Changes in these three processes—distribution, growth, and productivity—indicate the emergence of climate change signals across multiple Northeast US fish populations. These effects create new challenges for fishery managers and industry participants operating in the context of non-stationarity and uncertainty.

20th Century Warming in the Western Florida Keys Was Dominated by Increasing Winter Temperatures

AbstractLong‐lived Atlantic coral species like Orbicella faveolata are important archives of oceanographic change in shallow, marine environments like the Florida Keys. Not only can coral‐based records extend for multiple centuries beyond the limits of the instrumental record, but they can also provide a more accurate representation of in situ conditions than gridded interpolated sea‐surface temperature (SST) products for nearshore reef environments. We use the coral Sr/Ca paleothermometer to produce a 150‐year (1830–1980 C.E.) monthly SST reconstruction from an O. faveolata colony collected in the Marquesas Keys, FL, USA. An important feature of our record is a significant 20th‐century warming trend in winter SSTs. We hypothesize that the winter warming trend was driven partially by a decrease in upwelling associated cyclonic eddies spinning off the Florida Current. A long‐term weakening of winter Florida Current transport over the 20th century could be responsible for decreased cyclonic eddy formation in the Florida Straits. Another feature of the record is pronounced multidecadal fluctuations of mean annual warming and cooling in the record, which correspond to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), with the AMV lagging behind western Florida Keys temperatures by 5–11 years. Strong coherence between coral‐based SST reconstructions in the western Florida Keys with broader scale Atlantic oceanographic trends over the past century suggests a common driver of regional SST variability.

Using satellite-derived land surface temperatures to clarify the spatiotemporal warming trends of the Alborz Mountains in northern Iran

The Alborz Mountains are some of the highest in Iran, and they play an important role in controlling the climate of the country’s northern regions. The land surface temperature (LST) is an important variable that affects the ecosystem of this area. This study investigated the spatiotemporal changes and trends of the nighttime LST in the western region of the Central Alborz Mountains at elevations of 1500–4000 m above sea level. MODIS data were extracted for the period of 2000–2021, and the Mann–Kendall nonparametric test was applied to evaluating the changes in the LST. The results indicated a significant increasing trend for the monthly average LST in May–August along the southern aspect. Both the northern and southern aspects showed decreasing trends for the monthly average LST in October, November, and March and an increasing trend in other months. At all elevations, the average decadal change in the monthly average LST was more severe along the southern aspect (0.60°C) than along the northern aspect (0.37°C). The LST difference between the northern and southern aspects decreased in the cold months but increased in the hot months. At the same elevation, the difference in the lapse rate between the northern and southern aspects was greater in the hot months than in the cold months. With increasing elevation, the lapse rate between the northern and southern aspects disappeared. Climate change was concluded to greatly decrease the difference in LST at different elevations for April–July.

Mesocosm Studies Suggest Climate Change May Release Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) Larvae from Cold Inhibition and Enable Year-Round Development in a Desert City.

AbstractGlobal warming trends, human-assisted transport, and urbanization have allowed poleward expansion of many tropical vector species, but the specific mechanisms responsible for thermal mediation of range changes and ecological success of invaders remain poorly understood. Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) is a tropical mosquito currently expanding into many higher-latitude regions, including the urban desert region of Maricopa County, Arizona. Here, adult populations virtually disappear in winter and spring and then increase exponentially through summer and fall, indicating that winter conditions remain a barrier to the development of some life stages of A. aegypti. To determine whether cold limits the winter development of A. aegypti larvae in Maricopa County, we surveyed for larval abundance and tested their capacity to develop in ambient and warmed conditions. Aedes aegypti larvae were not observed in artificial aquatic habitats in winter and spring but were abundant in summer and fall, suggesting winter suppression of adults, larvae, or both. Water temperatures in winter months fluctuated strongly; larvae were usually cold paralyzed at night but active during the day. Despite daytime temperatures that allowed activity and achieving similar degree-days as warmed mesocosms, larvae reared under ambient winter conditions were unable to develop to adulthood, perhaps due to repetitive cold damage. However, warming average temperature by 1.7°C allowed many larvae to successfully develop to adults. Because daytime highs in winter will often allow adult flight, it is likely that relatively minor additional winter warming may allow A. aegypti populations to develop and reproduce year-round in Maricopa County.

Climate Modelling and Analytics for Urban Heat Risks Mitigation and Adaptation

This study highlights the need for climate-sensitive urban planning and design in the face of climate change, with a specific focus on Singapore. Rapid urbanization has led to significant warming trends, increased heat stress, and heightened electricity demand for cooling. The Urban Climate Design Lab (UCDL) at the National University of Singapore employs a multidisciplinary approach, merging urban planning, architecture, and urban climate science. The research introduces GIS-based tools to evaluate the microclimate impact of new developments, replacing time-consuming simulations and wind tunnel experiments. These tools encompass: 1) The Urban Wind Environment Model, assessing urban permeability for natural ventilation; 2) The Fine-Scale Wind Environment Model, providing high-resolution pedestrian-level wind speed data. 3) The Urban Tree-Airflow Model, aiding tree placement and species selection for optimal cooling. 4) The Anthropogenic Heat Dispersion Model, estimating the impact of human-generated heat emissions. These GIS tools are integrated into the open-access UCDL Microclimate Digital Platform, facilitating knowledge transfer and empowering stakeholders in climate-sensitive urban planning. The platform offers various climate models and visualization capabilities to enhance evidence-based decision-making for urban climate sustainability and resilience. In the future, the platform will expand its offerings, becoming a valuable resource for urban planners, engineers, health practitioners, environmental experts, and residents adapting to a changing climate.

Distinguishing Trajectories and Drivers of Vegetated Ecosystems in China's Loess Plateau

AbstractTerrestrial ecosystems can exhibit various behaviors in response to climate change and human activities. Nonlinear and abrupt shifts in ecosystems are particularly important as they indicate substantial modifications in ecosystem structure and function, posing a threat to the provision of ecosystem services. Here we distinguish between linear, curvilinear, and abrupt shifts in ecosystem productivity from 2000 to 2020 in China's Loess Plateau. We utilize spatial Random Forest models to analyze the driving factors behind these change patterns. Our findings indicate that 84.1% of the ecosystems experienced a positive change in plant productivity, while a small proportion (2.5%) exhibited a negative change. Abrupt shifts are prevalent in both positive and negative changes in ecosystem productivity, with negative changes often manifesting as abrupt shifts (79.3%). Negative changes in plant productivity, particularly the negative abrupt shifts, are primarily associated with human activities characterized by increased nighttime light and urbanization. Land conversion to forest is linked to a curvilinear trajectory in plant productivity, characterized by nonlinear changes with acceleration. Higher water availability and a wetter environment are more likely to promote positive changes in plant productivity. Moderate warming trends contribute to abrupt positive changes in plant productivity, while high warming trends are associated with increased negative abrupt and curvilinear changes. We highlight the importance of accounting for diverse change behaviors in ecosystems for the development of targeted conservation and restoration measures.

The Integration Analysis of the Potential Risk of Building a Carbon Currency Financial System and the Theory of Climate Change in the Multi-four Seasons

This paper explores the concept of carbon currency and the theory of multi-seasonal climate change. It begins with the origin of carbon currency, which emerged from the Technocracy Inc. organization's proposal of energy certificates as a basis for economic systems. The paper then discusses the Kyoto Protocol's role in establishing a global carbon emissions trading system and the creation of carbon credits. It highlights the relationship between carbon emissions and greenhouse gases, emphasizing the role of carbon-absorbing assets in offsetting emissions. The paper also introduces the theory of multi-seasonal climate change, which suggests an overall global warming trend influenced by celestial movements. The summary provides several key points. Firstly, it states that global temperature is rising primarily due to the Earth's positional relationship in celestial movements, emphasizing the need to prepare for severe floods. Secondly, it acknowledges the limitations of existing technology in quantitatively analyzing the contribution of carbon emissions to global warming. The potential risks of establishing a carbon currency financial system are also identified, including reduced pricing efficiency, adverse effects on carbon reduction goals, and the possibility of financial crises. Lastly, the paper mentions the Multi-Seasonal Climate Change Theory, which suggests that humanity should focus on peaceful coexistence and space exploration to secure its future survival.

Chronic low salinity stress rescued masculinization effect in farmed Cynoglossus semilaevis population

Salinity, being an indispensable abiotic factor crucial for the survival of marine organisms, has demonstrated diverse alterations globally in response to the current trend of global warming. In this study, the effect of chronic low salinity stress on teleosts' sex differentiation was investigated using Cynoglossus semilaevis, an economically important fish with both genetic and environmental sex determination system. The cultivation experiment was conducted employing artificially simulated seawater of 20 ppt and ambient sea water of 30 ppt to rear juveniles C. semilaevis. Throughout the experiment, the growth performance was assessed and the histology of gonadal development was examined, a significantly lower masculinization rate was observed in LS group. To gain further insights, transcriptome analysis was conducted using raw reads obtained from 53 libraries derived from gonads of 55 days post fertilization (dpf) and 100 dpf juveniles in both LS and CT groups. GO/KEGG enrichment were further proceeded, Terms and pathways involved in reproduction ability, germ cell proliferation, immune function, steroid metabolism etc., were illuminated and a possible crosstalk between HPI and HPG axis was proposed. WGCNA was conducted and two hub genes, hspb8-like and Histone H2A.V were exhibited to be of great significance in the changes of masculinization rate. Our findings provided solid reference for sex differentiation study of GSD + ESD species in a constantly changing ocean environment, as well as practice guiding significance for the environmental management for the culture of C. semilaevis.

Climatic Warming Caused a Transition in Tree Growth Sensitivity from Temperature to Moisture Conditions: Evidence from Multi-Species Tree-Ring Data in the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau

Traditionally, investigations into the climatic response of various tree species have spanned different regions. However, dendrochronological studies within a single region, characterized by minor climatic differences, have received comparatively less attention. Therefore, this study collected 230 tree cores from four prevalent conifer species (P. yunnanensis, A. forrestii, P. likiangensis, and T. dumosa) in the Lugu Lake Wetland Nature Reserve of southwestern China, a region undergoing climate warming and drying. This study employed dendrochronological methods to investigate tree growth–climate static responses, individual tree responses to climate, and dynamic tree–climate interactions. Our findings revealed that as the trend of warming and drying persists, tree growth exhibits an initial increase followed by a subsequent decrease. Dynamic response analyses, along with standardized assessments, indicate that in the early stages of warming, tree growth benefits from elevated temperatures. However, in the later stages of warming, the combined effects of warming and drying become more pronounced. During this phase, the facilitating impact of temperature diminishes, while the controlling influence of moisture conditions intensifies. Looking ahead, with the ongoing intensification of warming and drying, tree growth in the region is anticipated to become increasingly reliant on the water supply. This shift may lead to the decline or mortality of tree species intolerant to drought, such as T. dumosa.

Fuling production areas in China: climate and distribution changes (A.D. 618-2100).

Through a meticulous analysis of ancient Chinese literature, this study comprehensively documents the geographical distribution of Fuling, a traditional Chinese medicinal material, during the Tang, Song, Ming, and Qing dynasties spanning from the seventh to the twentieth century in China. Based on the contemporary distribution information of Fuling, we utilized the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to simulate the suitable distribution areas of Fuling under both present-day conditions and in the future (2081~2100). The findings reveal that climate change has influenced the distribution of Fuling production areas. The shifts in Fuling's origin during different periods in ancient and modern times align with climate fluctuations and concurrent societal development. During the Tang and Song dynasties, Fuling primarily originated in northern China. However, it migrated southward during the Little Ice Age (LIA) and has recently shown a slight northward shift, in line with the climate fluctuations of the LIA and contemporary global warming trends. This study offers a comprehensive analysis of the changes in the distribution and production areas of Fuling over a 1500-year period, encompassing ancient, modern, and future periods. The results provide critical insights for adjusting Fuling cultivation areas in response to climate change and for further exploration of the mechanisms through which climate impacts the growth of Fuling.

A CMIP6 Analysis of Past and Future Arctic Winter Stratospheric Temperature Trends

AbstractReanalysis data reveal a weak warming trend in the midwinter Arctic stratosphere, contrary to the cooling expectation based on the greenhouse gas effect. This trend is also influenced by the occurrence of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). Using Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) we investigate temperature trends over a similar timescale as ERA5 and find that CMIP6 models can replicate the positive midwinter temperature trend in the mid‐lower stratosphere. However, when considering the multi‐model mean, this positive temperature trend is much weaker than ERA5. Extrapolating to the future, we find that the SSW‐driven positive temperature trend will likely not continue in the future based on the SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 climate scenarios. Instead, the models project there will be widespread cooling throughout the Arctic winter stratosphere regardless of the occurrence of SSWs. Using a subsample of CMIP6 models which replicate the seasonality of the Arctic winter stratosphere most similarly to that of ERA5, we also find that the zonal wind strength during SSWs correlates the most with the temperature trends found there. However, trends in the zonal wind strength alone cannot account for the observed temperature trends among the CMIP6 models.

Altitude-dependent responses of dryland mountain ecosystems to drought under a warming climate in the Qilian Mountains, NW China

Climate warming has intensified drought severity in many areas of the globe. Dryland mountain ecosystems are sensitive to climate variability. However, the response of mountainous vegetation to drought has high uncertainties due to the rugged terrain and varied local climate and is still not well understood. In this study, the Qilian Mountains (QLMs) in northwestern China, which have a typical dryland mountain ecosystem and experienced intense climate change, are selected as a case study area. We utilized a downscaled normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) product and climate data to explore the spatiotemporal dynamics in vegetation greenness and the climatic drivers for the period 1982 ∼ 2018. We studied the response of different vegetation types to drought at different altitude gradients Results suggest that most areas in the QLMs displayed an upward trend in greenness and the greening rate was greater in the southeast, while vegetation degradation occurred in the western part. The grass and shrub communities showed a decreased sensitivity to drought at the medium altitudes and increased sensitivity at the lower and upper limits of their distribution altitudes. The broadleaf forests showed intensifying drought sensitivity at all elevations. Coniferous forests and alpine meadows respectively displayed decreasing and increasing trends of sensitivity to drought along elevations. A combination of the fastest warming and mildest wetting trends over the lowest (<3200 m) and highest (>4200 m) elevations are likely exacerbating the vulnerability of vegetation to drought. By contrast, the medium elevations (3200 ∼ 4200 m) have experienced rapid wetting and relatively slower warming, and the vegetation is expected to be less affected by drought if the current climate change trends continue. These findings help to better understand how these dryland mountainous vegetation communities respond to drought under a changing climate and provide some insights into the protection of these vulnerable ecosystems for the local managers.

Mixed layer heat budget in the Mozambique channel: Interannual variability and influence of Rossby waves

The evolution of the mixed layer temperature anomalies in the Mozambique Channel is analysed using a mixed layer heat budget covering sub-seasonal to interannual time scales. Sub-seasonal variations in mixed layer temperature are largely dominated by surface heat fluxes, except along the southern coast of Mozambique and Madagascar, where both the advection and the residual terms become significant. The northern Channel is dominated by the mean flow while the southern Channel is modulated by both the mean and eddy terms. Minimum heat gain through advection is observed in the channel during January–February when the Northeast Madagascar current opposes the northwesterly monsoonal winds. During the 1997/98 El Niño/positive Indian Ocean dipole, extreme warming and coral bleaching events were noted in the northern Channel. Such warming was linked with the relaxation of local winds, positive heat gain from the atmosphere and the shedding of large anticyclonic eddies northwest of Madagascar, associated with the arrival of downwelling Rossby waves. By contrast, upwelling Rossby waves and large cyclonic eddies in the Channel occurred during the 1998–2001 protracted La Niña, but only the northern part of the Channel experienced significant negative anomalies in mixed layer temperature. While no coral bleaching hotspots were noted in the northern Channel in summer 1999/2000 due to negative anomalies in advection, marine heatwaves occurred in the southern Channel during that summer. Finally, the protracted 1998–2001 La Niña was the last time that substantial upwelling Rossby wave activity occurred in the tropical South Indian Ocean; recent La Niña events showed muted or weak upwelling Rossby wave activity, including the recent 2020–2022 protracted event. Post-2001 also occurs at the same time as a stronger warming trend in the southwest Indian Ocean region.

Decadal-scale variability and warming affect spring timing and forest growth across the western Great Lakes region.

The Great Lakes region of North America has warmed by 1-2 °C on average since pre-industrial times, with the most pronounced changes observable during winter and spring. Interannual variability in temperatures remains high, however, due to the influence of ocean-atmosphere circulation patterns that modulate the warming trend across years. Variations in spring temperatures determine growing season length and plant phenology, with implications for whole ecosystem function. Studying how both internal climate variability and the "secular" warming trend interact to produce trends in temperature is necessary to estimate potential ecological responses to future warming scenarios. This study examines how external anthropogenic forcing and decadal-scale variability influence spring temperatures across the western Great Lakes region and estimates the sensitivity of regional forests to temperature using long-term growth records from tree-rings and satellite data. Using a modeling approach designed to test for regime shifts in dynamic time series, this work shows that mid-continent spring climatology was strongly influenced by the 1976/1977 phase change in North Pacific atmospheric circulation, and that regional forests show a strengthening response to spring temperatures during the last half-century.

Temporal characteristics of extreme high temperatures in Wuhan since 1881

The construction and analysis of daily temperature data series in long enough a time period is important to understand decadal to multi-decadal variability and changing trends in extreme temperature events. This paper reports a new analysis of extreme temperature indices over the last 140 yr in Wuhan, China, with an emphasis on changes in extreme high temperature changes. The daily temperature data from 9 stations from 1881 to 1950 and 1 modern station from 1951 to 2020 were used for the analysis. Based on the data, and the commonly used extreme temperature indices, the variations and long-term trends of extreme high temperature events in Wuhan since 1881 were analyzed. The results show that there was no clear warming trend in maximum temperature, but a quite large inter-annual and inter-decadal fluctuation. In contrast, there was a very significant increase in minimum temperature, with a large upward trend overall. The extreme temperature indices exhibit a periodic variability, and frequent extreme heat events have been experienced over the last 140 yr in Wuhan. Most extreme temperature indices did not exhibit remarkable changes during the first half of the period analyzed. However, the majority of the extreme temperature indices showed significant upward trends over the latter half of the 140 yr period. The possible causes of the observed changes in the extreme high temperature events in the different time periods are also discussed.

Thermodynamic and Dynamic Components of Winter Temperature Changes in Western Canada, 1950–2020

Abstract Most of the globe has experienced significant warming trends that have been attributed to anthropogenic climate change. However, these rates of warming are also influenced by short-term climate fluctuations driven by atmospheric circulation dynamics, resulting in inconsistent trend magnitudes in both time and space. This research evaluated winter (December–February) temperature trends over 1950–2020 at 91 climate stations across British Columbia (BC), Alberta (AB), and Saskatchewan (SK), Canada, and determined the components attributed to thermodynamic and dynamic (atmospheric circulation) factors. A synoptic climatological approach was used to classify atmospheric circulation patterns in the midtroposphere, relate those patterns to surface temperature, and evaluate changes in frequency. Moderate to high temperature increases over 71 years were found for most of the region, averaging 3.1°C in southern SK to 4.1°C in central-northern AB, and a maximum of 5.8°C in northern BC. Low to moderate increases were found for southern BC, averaging 1.2°C. Changes in atmospheric circulation accounted for 29% and 31% of observed temperature changes in central-northern BC and AB, respectively. Dynamic factors were a moderate driver in southern AB (18%) and central-northern SK (13%), and low in southern SK (5%). Negative dynamic contributions in southern BC (−6%), suggest that atmospheric circulation changes counteracted thermodynamically driven temperature changes. Results were consistent with trend analyses, indicating this method is well suited for trend detection and identification of thermodynamic and dynamic drivers. Results of this research improve our understanding of the magnitude of winter temperature changes critical for informing adaptation and climate-related policy decisions. Significance Statement Winter temperatures are strongly influenced by atmospheric circulation patterns, which move warm or cold air masses over large distances. We wanted to understand how changes in atmospheric circulation affect observed changes in winter temperatures in three provinces in western Canada. This also helps us to understand how much temperature change is due to anthropogenic (e.g., caused by greenhouse gases and land cover changes) and naturally occurring changes to Earth’s energy balance. Our results highlight the importance of understanding variability when selecting a time series for trend analyses or climate baselines for modeling studies. This study also helps to inform climate-related policies, decision-making, and adaptation strategies.

Intra-annual stem radial growth of Qinghai spruce and its environmental drivers in the Qilian Mountains, northwestern China

Tree stem radial growth could be used to estimate forest productivity, which plays a dominant role in the carbon sink of terrestrial ecosystems. However, it is still obscure how intra-annual stem radial growth is regulated by environmental variables. Here, we monitored Qinghai spruce stem radial growth over seven years and analyzed the environmental drivers of the intra-annual stem radial changes in the Qilian Mountains at low (2700 m) and high altitudes (3200 m). We found that stem radial growth initiated when the daily mean minimum air temperature reached 1.6oC, while the cessation of stem growth was unrelated to temperatures and water conditions. Initiations of stem growth at 2700 m were significantly earlier than that at 3200 m. Maximum growth rates were observed before the summer solstice at low altitude, whereas at high altitude, the majority of them occurred after the summer solstice. Most variability in annual stem increment (AI) can be explained by the rate (Rm) than by the duration of stem growth (∆t), and 78.9 % and 69.6 % of the variability in AI were attributable to Rm for the lower and upper site, respectively. Structural equation modeling revealed that precipitation (P) could both directly positively influence stem radial increment (SRI) and indirectly positively influence SRI through influencing relative humidity (RH), but the positive effect of P on SRI was higher at low altitude than at high altitude. Daily minimum air temperature (Tmin) was also the main direct diver of SRI, and the positive effect of Tmin on SRI was higher at high altitude than at low altitude. Considering the trends in climate warming and humidification over the past decades, climate changes would result in earlier initiation of Qinghai spruce stem growth and promote the growth through positive response to increased precipitation in low altitude and through elevated temperature in high altitude, respectively.