Increased Warming Efficiencies of Lake Heatwaves Enhance Dryland Lake Warming over China

Abstract

Lake surface water temperature (LSWT) has significantly increased over China and even globally in recent decades due to climate change. However, the responses of LSWTs to climate warming in various climatic regions remain unclear due to the limited lake observations. Satellite-observed LSWT data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) dataset were extended using the air2water model. This research aimed to investigate summer LSWT trends across various climatic zones in China, shedding light on the complex interplay between surface air temperatures and LSWT from 1950 to 2020. The results demonstrate robust model performance, with high Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients, affirming its capability to simulate LSWT variability. Regional disparities in LSWT patterns are identified, revealing notable warming trends in dryland lakes, particularly in central Inner Mongolia. Notably, the study unveils a substantial increase in the intensity and duration of lake heatwaves, especially in semi-arid regions. Dryland lake heatwaves emerge as dominant contributors to intensified LSWT warming, showcasing stronger and longer-lasting events than humid regions. The research highlights a positive feedback loop between lake warming and heatwaves, further amplifying dryland LSWT warming. These findings underscore the vulnerability of dryland lakes to climate change and signal the potential ramifications of increased greenhouse gas concentrations.