Simulated Warming Research Articles

WITHDRAWN: Long-term warming and decreased precipitation regulated microbial community structure and potential function through enhanced predator-prey relationships in the Tibetan Plateau

Global climate change can shape the interactions among soil microbes and, in turn, mediate ecosystem functions. However, how these interactions were regulated remains to be investigated. This study utilized 16S rRNA, ITS, and 18S rRNA high-throughput sequencing to investigate the effects of simulated warming and precipitation changes on the major components of soil micro-food webs in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau through a field experiment. Adonis and non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) analyses showed that compositions of bacteria, fungi and protists were all affected by changes in temperature and precipitation. Correlation and cross-trophic network analyses revealed that warming and decreased precipitation, both separately and together, enhanced the relationships between bacteria and protists, especially protistan predators. We found that the modified stochasticity ratio of the bacterial community assembly was best predicted by protists. The potential functional structures of bacteria were positively correlated with protistan predators under warming and decreased precipitation condition, suggesting enhanced predator-prey relationships between protists and bacteria might further influence the potential functional characteristics of bacterial communities. Our study indicated that climate change altered bacterial compositional and functional structure via enhanced predator-prey interactions. Therefore, in the context of global climate change, broader and more comprehensive studies on protist-regulated soil bacterial and fungal communities are imperative.

Numerical simulation of summer warming of Siberian shelf seas depending on short-wave radiation parameterization

Numerical simulation of summer warming of Siberian shelf seas depending on short-wave radiation parameterization

Evaluation of WRF Cloud Microphysics Schemes in Explicit Simulations of Tropical Cyclone ‘Fani’ Using Wind Profiler Radar and Multi-Satellite Data Products

Extremely severe cyclonic storm (ESCS) ‘Fani’ formed in the North Indian Ocean and crossed at Puri in Orissa State on the east coast of India on 03 May 2019. In this study, we examine the sensitivity of convection permitting WRF simulations (3 km) of ‘Fani’ to cloud microphysics (CMP) schemes using radar and multi-satellite data products. Five CMP schemes, namely Thompson, Goddard, WSM6, Morrison and Lin are tested in WRF. Results show that the changes in the CMP schemes primarily affect the simulated intensity and have lesser impact on the track predictions. Simulations with Thompson followed by Goddard produced the best predictions for both track and intensity estimates. Our analysis reveals significant variations in vertical motions associated with Fani across different CMP schemes; the WSM6, Goddard and Lin schemes produced relatively stronger vertical motions. The explicit WRF simulations could reproduce the wind profiler radar observed intense convective motions during the transit of Fani between 1 and 2 May 2019 at Gadanki station. Experiments with Thompson and Goddard schemes simulated the mean vertical velocities in lower, middle and upper layers in better agreement with radar data. The Lin, WSM6 and Goddard CMP predicted stronger updraft velocities (~ 0.35 m/s); Thompson produced moderate updraft velocities (~ 0.25 m/s) in the upper troposphere over a relatively wider area of high theta-e (385–390 K) indicating the simulation of a convectively stronger and warmer core compared to Morrison. Our analysis suggests that the differences in vertical motions in various CMP simulations are mainly due to the variations in the warming in simulations. It has been found that WSM6, Lin and Goddard produced a deeper core (up to 200 hPa) with a stronger diabatic heating of ~ 6° C followed by Thompson, which simulated a moderately deep core extending to ~ 250 hPa with moderate heating of ~ 5 °C whereas Morrison produced a relatively weak core with a heating of ~ 4 °C limited to 300 hPa. The stronger simulated diabatic heating in Lin, WSM6 and Goddard produces stronger inflow, moisture convergence in the lower levels and stronger outflow and divergence in the upper levels leading to stronger convection in the core region in these cases. The Lin, WSM6 and Goddard mixed phase schemes with more solid hydrometeors simulated stronger radar reflectivities, and stronger eyewalls, due to more latent heat release leading to the development of a strong warm core in the upper troposphere and thus a stronger TC.

Warm Advection as a Cause for Extreme Heat Event in North China

AbstractExtreme heat events (EHEs) often hit North China, resulting in significant losses. The devastating EHE in the 1743 summer, marked as the highest temperature in the past 300 years, led to ∼11,000 fatalities. These historical EHEs prompt us to explore potential mechanisms beyond anthropogenic influences. We employ the Norwegian Earth System Model here to simulate the past millennium climate and then dynamically downscale the July 1743 event using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. The successful simulation of warming in North China, although it has been a fortunate outcome, is supported by tree‐ring records, providing a compelling case study for the event. Through composite and case analyses, we discover a connection between EHEs and active Northeast China Vortexes (NCVs) which induce warm advection, consequently heating the lower atmosphere. Reanalysis further confirms the connection in the modern era. Our study suggests modeling past EHEs, while challenging, is indeed feasible.

Simulated Warming Hole in Paleo-Pacific Oceans

Abstract Both observations and simulations show that under global warming, there exists a warming deficit in the North Atlantic, known as the North Atlantic warming hole (NAWH). Here, we show that a similar warming hole occurs in the subpolar Pacific Ocean of paleoclimate simulations. As the solar constant is increased, the local surface becomes substantially cooler rather than warmer in the subpolar paleo-Pacific Ocean under the land–sea configurations of 70, 90, and 150 million years ago (Ma). The warming hole has a magnitude of ≈3°C and is located in the Northern Hemisphere in 70 and 90 Ma. The warming hole in 150 Ma has a magnitude of ≈1°C and is located in the Southern Hemisphere. Both atmospheric and oceanic processes contribute to trigger the warming hole. For 70- and 90-Ma experiments, atmospheric teleconnection along a great circle from tropics to extratropics intensifies surface winds over subpolar ocean and thereby increases relatively cool seawater transport from high to low latitudes. Meanwhile, global meridional overturning circulation (GMOC) becomes weaker, causing a divergence of the meridional ocean heat transport in the warming hole region. An increasing regional cloud shortwave cooling effect acts to further enhance the warming hole. For 150-Ma experiments, the warming hole is related to the meridional shift of midlatitude jet stream and the weakening of GMOC in the Southern Hemisphere. The strength and phase of the atmospheric teleconnection and the response of GMOC strongly depend on land–sea configuration, resulting in the paleo-Pacific warming hole to occur in special periods only.

Response of the functional traits of Schoenoplectus tabernaemontani to simulated warming in the Napahai wetland of northwestern Yunnan, China

The impact of climate warming on wetland ecosystems is a current focal point in ecological research. In this study, the Napahai wetland, a typical plateau wetland in northwest Yunnan Province, was selected as the study site to understand the growth and survival strategies of emergent plants in a plateau wetland under climate warming conditions. Open-top chambers (OTCs) were used to simulate warming in three treatments (i.e., control group, 2.0 ± 0.5°C, and 4.0 ± 0.5°C) in order to study the responses of the functional traits of the dominant emergent plant Schoenoplectus tabernaemontani to simulated warming. The results showed that simulated warming significantly reduced the photosynthetic carbon assimilation capacity and biomass accumulation of S. tabernaemontani, as well as its nitrogen content and vascular bundle density, while it significantly increased the vascular bundle size. The growing season accumulated temperature (AT) and the mean temperature of the hottest month (WT) were the main temperature factors influencing the functional traits of S. tabernaemontani. In summary, simulated warming significantly affected the functional traits of S. tabernaemontani, which demonstrated effective adaptation to warming conditions. As the temperature rises and the light and productivity decrease, S. tabernaemontani prioritizes the supply of limited resources to the underground part to ensure the biomass supply of the reproductive structure. This study provides a case for revealing the response patterns and ecological adaptation strategies of plateau wetland plants to climate warming.

Stoichiometry of litter decomposition under the effects of climate change and nutrient enrichment: A meta-analysis

Abstract Aims The cycling of nutrients from plant litter has key implications for the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems by controlling nutrient availability and net primary production. Despite extensive research on the effects of global change on ecosystem functioning, the direct implications of global change on stoichiometry and nutrient dynamics during litter decomposition remain poorly understood. To address this gap, we conducted a meta-analysis. Methods We analysed 178 experiments that simulated (i) warming, (ii) drought, (iii) increased water availability, (iv) N enrichment, (v) P enrichment, and (vi) combined N and P (N + P) enrichment. We compared earlier (approximately six months) and later (approximately one year) stages of decomposition and analysed the specific effects taking into account climate and plant type. Results The C:N and C:P ratios decreased in most warming and nutrient enrichment scenarios, leading to losses of litter C content, while the N:P ratio remained more resilient and affected by water availability. Furthermore, the abundance of resources (water and N + P) fosters the decomposition of litter. The nutrient mobilisation increases for both P and N under non-limited nutrient enrichment and it is faster for N than for P when water increases its availability. Nutrient enrichment was relevant in later stages of decomposition. Conclusions Our study provides insights into the fate of litter decomposition and its stoichiometric dynamics in response to drivers of global change. Concerning scenarios of C release and N and P immobilisation were identified. However, further experimentation and analysis are necessary to consider all interacting drivers.

Effects of Simulated Warming on Bacterial Community Structure in Litters of Chinese Fir Based on Displacement Test

Bacterial communities are vital factors for regulating litter decomposition in forests. With the gradual increase in global climate change, the effects of global warming on the decomposition of forest litter have become a cause for concern. In this study, we used a displacement test to simulate the effects of warming (+2.5, +4.6, and +6.5 °C) on the composition and diversity of bacterial communities in Chinese fir litters based on the natural differences in temperature between the elevation of Wuyi Mountain. Warming significantly increased the abundance and diversity of bacterial communities and altered the functional abundance of bacterial communities. Warming significantly increased the relative abundance of Acidothermus and decreased that of Bacteroidetes and Mucilaginibacter. Structural variations in the bacterial communities were closely related to the chemical properties of the litter. The relative abundance of Planctomycetes exhibited a positive association with nitrogen content and a negative association with cellulose content, whereas phosphorus content was the main driving factor of Acidothermus abundance. Warming increased the complexity of the bacterial community structure, which promoted the decomposition of Chinese fir litter and accelerated nutrient cycling in the Chinese fir plantation ecosystem.

Drivers of Changes to the ENSO–Europe Teleconnection Under Future Warming

AbstractThe El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection to Europe is projected to strengthen under global warming in most climate model simulations. However, given the current difference between recent observations and historical model simulations of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature trends, with models simulating an El Niño‐like warming in recent decades which is in disagreement with observations, it is important to understand the relative contributions of changes to the teleconnection forcing and background state to the overall teleconnection change. Using idealized climate model experiments, we show that both the eastward shift of El Niño precipitation and background state changes make contributions to the overall teleconnection change. These results suggest that the ENSO–Europe teleconnection can be expected to strengthen under global warming, even if ENSO precipitation anomalies do not shift eastwards as currently projected. However, the magnitude of the strengthening may depend on how much of an eastward shift does occur.

Vaccinium dwarf shrubs responses to experimental warming and herbivory resistance treatment are species- and context dependent

Climate change impacts on species and ecosystem functioning may depend on climatic context and study systems. Climate warming and intensified herbivory are two stressors to plants that often appear in combination and are predicted to increase in cold environments. Effects of multiple drivers on plant performance are difficult to predict and warrant studies that use experimental manipulations along climatic gradients to produce more realistic knowledge. Our three study sites by the Sognefjord in Norway, that differed mainly in climatic conditions (ca. 5°C growing season difference), ranged from hemi-boreal lowland (100 masl, Low), via boreal mid-montane (500 masl) to alpine timberline (900 masl, High) bioclimates. At each site, in a randomized block design, we simulated growing-season warming using open-top chambers (OTCs) and experimentally induced herbivory resistance using the plant hormone methyl jasmonate (MeJA). We recorded growth, mortality, flower and fruit numbers, and insect herbivory on tagged ramets in permanent plots across three years (2016-2018) in three open woodland populations of two functionally important plant species with contrasting traits, Vaccinium myrtillus (bilberry) and V. vitis-idaea (lingonberry). Growth of both dwarf shrubs decreased with warming in the warm lowland populations (Low) but increased in the alpine populations (High). Shoot mortality increased most with warming at Low but was reduced at High. Reproduction, both flowering and fruiting, decreased with induced resistance treatment, but the effect was larger when warmed for bilberry and increased with elevation for both species. Leaf herbivory in bilberry increased with warming at Low but decreased at High. The combined warming and resistance treatment had only synergistic negative interaction effects on fruit numbers in bilberry. The clear context- and species-dependent effects of climate warming and increased resistance in this study may predict a potential decline in performance, as well as abundance and distribution, of these functionally important Vaccinium species at our lowest site. Bilberry reproduction appeared to be particularly susceptible to both climate warming and induced resistance in the manipulated populations. Such combined negative effects on plant performance are likely to have considerable knock-on effects via altered species’ interactions and ecosystem functioning.

Historical and Future global warming under different RCP emission scenarios

Understanding the relationship between carbon emissions and climate change has become increasingly urgent amidst the universal endorsement of sustainable development and the establishment of net-zero carbon emission target (The Paris Agreement). In this study, model projections based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are used to examine future climate change under different representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios till 2300. Besides analysis of future global average temperature change under the emission scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP 8.5, historical data is first collected during the past three decades (1990-2021). The results show that the simulated global warming ranges from 0.9 to 1.3 between 1990 and 2021, consistent with the observations (0.93). Carbon emissions in China arose mostly from manufacturing and construction, electricity and heat and transport. Emissions from electricity, heat and transport increase by a high ratio of 7.7 and 3.5 times due to industry development. Under different RCP scenarios, the global surface temperature anomaly will increase by 0.2-1.0, 1.2-2.0, 3.5-4.3 and 3.0-8.5 , respectively. The surface temperature anomaly values under RCP8.5 are much higher than those under other emission scenarios. Only in the RCP2.6 scenario (sustainability), the surface warming in all simulations stays below a 2 threshold at the end of the 21st century. To attain net zero emissions, it is highly demanded to develop strict emission policies, chart a course toward decarbonization, and institute effective measures aimed at realizing net zero emissions within the short to medium term. Concurrently striving for economic objectives, managing the equilibrium between economic growth and environmental sustainability emerges as a critical imperative.

Future projection of tropical cyclone genesis in the Western North pacific using high-resolution GCMs and genesis potential indices

The study employed high-resolution atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM) to simulate tropical cyclones (TCs) and evaluated two TC genesis potential indices in reflecting projected TC changes in the western North Pacific (WNP) under a warming scenario. Both indices accurately represented the seasonal variation of TC genesis frequency (TCGF) and its spatial distribution in historical simulations and observation data. The widely-used TC genesis potential index (χGPI) projected a significant increase in TCGF in response to a warmer ocean surface. However, this projection conflicted with the significant reduction in the model projection due to the dominant control of SST on the χGPI. Higher SST in remote ocean basins often over dominated the destabilization effect of in-situ warmer SST and caused more stable atmospheric conditions in the WNP, resulting in fewer TC occurrences. By contrast, the revised index (χMqGPI), which considers gross moisture condensation, projected a TCGF decrease that more accurately reflected the decreasing trend of TCGF in the warming simulations by AGCM, although the degree of reduction was smaller than that derived directly from TC detection scheme. The results suggest the plausibility of using χMqGPI, based on the results of multimodel coarse-resolution CMIP6 climate models, to project future changes in TCGF in the WNP.

Simulation of the future warming over the Egyptian Mediterranean coast

Simulation of the future warming over the Egyptian Mediterranean coast

Why Does the Ensemble Mean of CMIP6 Models Simulate Arctic Temperature More Accurately Than Global Temperature?

An accurate simulation and projection of future warming are needed for a proper policy response to expected climate change. We examine the simulations of the mean global and Arctic surface air temperatures by the CMIP6 (Climate Models Intercomparison Project phase 6) climate models. Most models overestimate the observed mean global warming. Only seven out of 19 models considered simulate global warming that is within ±15% of the observed warming between the average of the 2014–2023 and 1961–1990 reference period. Ten models overestimate global warming by more than 15% and only one of the models underestimates it by more than 15%. Arctic warming is simulated by the CMIP6 climate models much better than the mean global warming. The reason is an equal spread of over and underestimates of Arctic warming by the models, while most of the models overestimate the mean global warming. Eight models are within ±15% of the observed Arctic warming. Only three models are accurate within ±15% for both mean global and Arctic temperature simulations.

Timing-specific parental effects of ocean warming in a coral reef fish.

Population and species persistence in a rapidly warming world will be determined by an organism's ability to acclimate to warmer conditions, especially across generations. There is potential for transgenerational acclimation but the importance of ontogenetic timing in the transmission of environmentally induced parental effects remains mostly unknown. We aimed to disentangle the effects of two critical ontogenetic stages (juvenile development and reproduction) to the new-generation acclimation potential, by exposing the spiny chromis damselfish Acanthochromis polyacanthus to simulated ocean warming across two generations. By using hepatic transcriptomics, we discovered that the post-hatching developmental environment of the offspring themselves had little effect on their acclimation potential at 2.5 months of life. Instead, the developmental experience of parents increased regulatory RNA production and protein synthesis, which could improve the offspring's response to warming. Conversely, parental reproduction and offspring embryogenesis in warmer water elicited stress response mechanisms in the offspring, with suppression of translation and mitochondrial respiration. Mismatches between parental developmental and reproductive temperatures deeply affected offspring gene expression profiles, and detrimental effects were evident when warming occurred both during parents' development and reproduction. This study reveals that the previous generation's developmental temperature contributes substantially to thermal acclimation potential during early life; however, exposure at reproduction as well as prolonged heat stress will likely have adverse effects on the species' persistence.

Lake microbiome composition determines community adaptability to warming perturbations

BackgroundMicrobial communities are crucial for ecosystems. A central goal of microbial ecological research is to simplify the biodiversity in natural environments and quantify the functional roles to explore how the ecosystems respond under different environmental conditions. However, the research on the stability and dynamics of lake microbes in response to repeated warming stress is limited.MethodsTo exclude confounding environmental factors, we conducted a 20-day repeated warming simulation experiment to examine the composition and function dynamics of lake microbial communities.ResultsExperimental warming significantly altered the community structure of bacteria instead of fungi. Microbial community structure, together with microbial biomass, jointly regulated the function of microbial communities. The plummeting of aerobic denitrifiers Pseudomonadaceae decreased by 99% (P < 0.001) after high temperature, leading to reduced microbial nitrogen metabolism on nitrogen respiration and nitrate respiration. Under warming conditions, the microbial community with higher adaptability showed more positive correlations and less competitive relationships in co-occurrence networks to acclimate to warming.ConclusionMicrobiome composition controlled carbon and nitrogen metabolism, thus determining lake microbial communities’ adaptability to heat stress. This study extended our insights on the lake microbial community response and adaptability under warming drivers.

Temperature fluctuation in soil alters the nanoplastic sensitivity in wheat

Despite the wide acknowledgment that plastic pollution and global warming have become serious agricultural concerns, their combined impact on crop growth remains poorly understood. Given the unabated megatrend, a simulated soil warming (SWT, +4 °C) microcosm experiment was carried out to provide a better understanding of the effects of temperature fluctuations on wheat seedlings exposed to nanoplastics (NPs, 1 g L−1 61.71 ± 0.31 nm polystyrene). It was documented that SWT induced oxidative stress in wheat seedlings grown in NPs-contaminated soil, with an 85.56 % increase in root activity, while decreasing plant height, fresh weight, and leaf area by 8.72 %, 47.68 %, and 15.04 % respectively. The SWT also resulted in reduced photosynthetic electron-transfer reaction and Calvin-Benson cycle in NPs-treated plants. Under NPs, SWT stimulated the tricarboxylic acid (TCA) metabolism and bio-oxidation process. The decrease in photosynthesis and the increase in respiration resulted in an 11.94 % decrease in net photosynthetic rate (Pn). These results indicated the complicated interplay between climate change and nanoplastic pollution in crop growth and underscored the potential risk of nanoplastic pollution on crop production in the future climate.

Short-Term Simulated Warming Changes the Beta Diversity of Bacteria in Taiga Forests’ Permafrost by Altering the Composition of Dominant Bacterial Phyla

Permafrost is widely degraded in the context of global warming. The spatial distribution of soil microbes in these cold habitats has received a lot of attention. However, knowledge on the changes in permafrost microbial communities following permafrost thaw is still limited. We used permafrost soil from a taiga forest for indoor experiments using pristine soil as a control (CK, −2 °C), simulating warming for 15 days at temperatures of 0 °C (T1), 2 °C (T2), and 4 °C (T3). Amplicons of the hypervariable V4 region of the bacterial 16S rRNA gene were sequenced to identify bacterial communities present in the soils of pristine and warming treatments. Warming increased the average relative abundance of Proteobacteria (5.71%) and decreased that of Actinobacteriota (7.82%). The Beta diversity changed (p = 0.001) and significantly correlated with the pH, microbial biomass carbon (MBC), and available potassium (AK) of the soil (p &lt; 0.05). Warming further increased the Alpha diversity (Simpson index), changing the functional pathways of the bacterial communities, whereby secondary functional pathways produced significant correlations with bacterial phyla (p &lt; 0.05). Combined, the results indicated that short-term warming altered the Beta diversity of soil bacteria in a taiga forest’s permafrost soil by decreasing the abundance of Actinobacteria and increasing that of Ascomycetes, while pH, MBC, and AK were identified as the soil factors influencing the structure and diversity of the bacterial communities.

Exacerbated summer European warming not captured by climate models neglecting long-term aerosol changes

AbstractIn much of western-central Europe, summer temperatures have surged three times faster than the global mean warming since 1980, yet this is not captured by most climate model simulations. Here we disentangle this warming into thermodynamic and circulation-induced contributions, and show that the latter is the main reason why numerically simulated warming is weaker than observed. Crucially, regional climate models from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment with constant aerosol forcings systematically show the strongest discrepancies from observations: in these simulations, the regional brightening and associated thermodynamic warming due to aerosol reductions is not represented. We estimate an effect of ~0.5 °C over western-central Europe for our model ensemble, and the discrepancy to climate models with evolving aerosols increases in future projections. To better reap the benefits of regional high-resolution simulations, it is thus imperative to represent the relevant external forcings and associated responses across the entire climate model chain.

Analysis of Planetary Scale Waves Using Idealized Sudden Stratospheric Warming Simulations in Different Dynamical Cores

AbstractPlanetary waves from the troposphere are known to play an important role in sudden stratospheric warming (SSW). To evaluate the representation of large‐scale waves in idealized SSW simulations, three dynamical cores of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model were tested in this study: the Eulerian (EUL) spectral‐transform, finite‐volume (FV), and spectral element (SE) models. Notable differences were observed among the dynamical cores, with FV being unable to generate major SSWs and simulating minor SSWs less effectively than the other models. Wave decomposition analysis revealed distinct planetary wave propagation patterns during the development of each event. Zonal Wave Number 2 wave activities primarily determined SSW types, and ZWN1 led SSWs to recovery during the ensuing periods. However, FV failed to adequately propagate large‐scale waves in minor SSW events, preventing the reversal of stratospheric zonal‐mean zonal winds. Interestingly, FV showed decreased upward Eliassen–Palm flux compared to that of other dynamical cores, even during climatology. Additional tests were performed to examine the reasons for FV's atypical results, but the dynamic impacts on planetary waves remain poorly understood.