Warmer Months Research Articles

Bumble bee responses to climate and landscapes: Investigating habitat associations and species assemblages across geographic regions in the United States of America.

Bumble bees are integral pollinators of native and cultivated plant communities, but species are undergoing significant changes in range and abundance on a global scale. Climate change and land cover alteration are key drivers in pollinator declines; however, limited research has evaluated the cumulative effects of these factors on bumble bee assemblages. This study tests bumble bee assemblage (calculated as richness and abundance) responses to climate and land use by modeling species-specific habitat requirements, and assemblage-level responses across geographic regions. We integrated species richness, abundance, and distribution data for 18 bumble bee species with site-specific bioclimatic, landscape composition, and landscape configuration data to evaluate the effects of multiple environmental stressors on bumble bee assemblages throughout 433 agricultural fields in Florida, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Maryland, South Carolina, Utah, Virginia, and West Virginia from 2018 to 2020. Distinct east versus west groupings emerged when evaluating species-specific habitat associations, prompting a detailed evaluation of bumble bee assemblages by geographic region. Maximum temperature of warmest month and precipitation of driest month had a positive impact on bumble bee assemblages in the Corn Belt/Appalachian/northeast, southeast, and northern plains regions, but a negative impact on the mountain region. Further, forest land cover surrounding agricultural fields was highlighted as supporting more rich and abundant bumble bee assemblages. Overall, climate and land use combine to drive bumble bee assemblages, but how those processes operate is idiosyncratic and spatially contingent across regions. From these findings, we suggested regionally specific management practices to best support rich and abundant bumble bee assemblages in agroecosystems. Results from this study contribute to a better understanding of climate and landscape factors affecting bumble bees and their habitats throughout the United States.

From current to potential distribution: the case of Taxus baccata(Taxaceae, Pinales) on the island of Sardinia (Italy)

Taxus baccata is a relic-declining species, especially at the southern edge of its natural distribution. On the Island of Sardinia, we found 237 locations where yews grow, being indifferent to substrates, preferring moist sites with northern aspects and with an elevation range of 695–1,225 m a.s.l. We applied the Maximum Entropy algorithm (MaxEnt), using 202 field-based sites and 19 bioclimatic variables, to model the present potential distribution. Our model showed high levels of predictive performances with significant values of AUC (training, 0.962; test, 0.963). Annual precipitation, mean temperature of the warmest month and isothermality were the key drivers for the distribution of yew in Sardinia. The response curves showed that T. baccata prefers annual mean temperatures ranging from 8.65 to 12.55 °C and annual mean precipitation from 770 to 1,085 mm. Most potential suitable conditions were found in northern and central Sardinia. We also modelled future habitat suitability for T. baccata under two different scenarios (ssp245 and ssp585), highlighting a predicted drastic reduction, up to >95% in the worst scenario, of the habitat suitability for yews by the end of this century. This is related to climate change and poses increasing concerns about the future of yews in Sardinia.

Response of Species to the Impact of Climate Change in the Gum Arabic Belt, Sudan: A Case Study in Acacia senegal

Sustainable management strategies of trees are important for indigenous agroforestry plant species, such as Acacia. Senegal (A. Senegal), due to the impacts of rapid population growth, land use and climate change. The objective of this investigation was to predict the spatio-temporal distribution of A.senegal in the Gum Arabic belt in Sudan in current (1985–2000) and future climate scenarios (2021–2100). Bioclimatic data was used for modeling purposes utilizing Maxent, with the assessment of model precision conducted through the utilization of the Area Under the Curve (AUC) and shown a high goodness-of-it (AUC=0.905±0.003 ). Significant differences were shown in species distribution between current and future periods under selected Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) of SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, climate scenario. Our findings indicated that the main predictors influence the distribution of the species were precipitation of wettest quarter and maximum temperature of warmest month. Under the current potential distribution (25.4%), it is projected that Acacia Senegal would expand 36.2%-87.7% (SSP2-4.5) and 38.9-42.5% (SSP5-8.5). It is expected that A.cacia Senegal will create new environments suitable for it due to expected climate changes. Hence, the research necessitates the formulation of a strategic plan aimed to rehabilitation plantations of Acacia senegal and cultivation these species within existing and prospective habitats conducive to their existence.

Does Engine Oil Type Affect Fuel Consumption in Passenger Vehicles? A Two-Year Investigation

Reducing fuel consumption to decrease CO2 emissions has become a key development factor in the automotive industry. An effective way to decrease fuel consumption is to reduce the influence of various sources of energy loss. One way to increase engine efficiency is to use low-viscosity engine oils to reduce friction losses in the engine’s tribological systems. The aim of the article was to analyze the relationship between the type of engine oil and fuel consumption in a group of 12 passenger cars. This was a homogenous group of identical cars, equipped with the same engine, operated under very similar conditions. Three groups of engine oils (Revline, Total, Orlen) were tested in vehicles and stressed with comparable workloads. The experiment was conducted over two years (two stages of research). The collected results were presented using graphs and compared using statistical tests, split into two stages of research, with four seasonal temperature groups. The study provides a detailed description of fuel consumption differences taking into account variations in ambient temperature. The analyses were focused on finding answers to two research questions: does the type of engine oil affect the variation in combustion levels, and what is the variability of fuel consumption in different seasons due to the ambient temperature variability? Briefly, in both stages of the study, vehicles using Revline oil attained the highest average fuel consumption throughout the study period. Vehicles using Total oil showed similar results to those using Revline oil, with the difference in fuel consumption not as noticeable during warmer months. Conversely, vehicles using Orlen oil demonstrated the lowest fuel consumption values during colder months, but higher levels during warmer months.

Nocturnal heat exposure and stroke risk.

In recent decades, nighttime temperatures have increased faster than daytime temperatures. The increasing prevalence of nocturnal heat exposure may pose a significant risk to cardiovascular health. This study investigated the association between nighttime heat exposure and stroke risk in the region of Augsburg, Germany, and examined its temporal variations over 15 years. Hourly meteorological parameters, including mean temperature, relative humidity, and barometric pressure, were acquired from a local meteorological station. A data set was obtained consisting of 11 037 clinical stroke cases diagnosed during warmer months (May to October) between the years 2006 and 2020. The average age of cases was 71.3 years. Among these cases, 642 were identified as haemorrhagic strokes, 7430 were classified as ischaemic strokes, and 2947 were transient ischaemic attacks. A time-stratified case-crossover analysis with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to estimate the stroke risk associated with extreme nighttime heat, as measured by the hot night excess (HNE) index after controlling for the potential confounding effects of daily maximum temperature and other climatic variables. Subgroup analyses by age group, sex, stroke subtype, and stroke severity were performed to identify variations in susceptibility to nighttime heat. Results suggested a significant increase in stroke risk on days with extreme nighttime heat (97.5% percentile of HNE) (odds ratio 1.07, 95% confidence interval 1.01-1.15) during the full study period. When comparing the results for 2013-20 with the results for 2006-12, there was a significant increase (P < .05) in HNE-related risk for all strokes and specifically for ischaemic strokes during the more recent period. Furthermore, older individuals, females, and patients with mild stroke symptoms exhibited a significantly increased vulnerability to nighttime heat. This study found nocturnal heat exposure to be related to elevated stroke risk after controlling for maximum daytime temperature, with increasing susceptibility between 2006 and 2020. These results underscore the importance of considering nocturnal heat as a critical trigger of stroke events in a warming climate.

Power Augmentation of Gas Turbine Using Exhaust Flue Gas Operated Vapor Absorption Machine

Industrial gas turbines (GT) that operate at constant speed are constant-volume-flow combustion machines. As the specific volume of air is directly proportional to the temperature, an increase in air density results in a higher air mass flow rate at low air ambient temperatures. This results more mass of air is now passes through same volume gas turbine space. Consequently, the gas turbine power output increases proportionally with the increase in air mass flow rate. For geographic regions where warm and humid months are predominant throughout the year, significant power loss occurs during these months, and a higher rate of expensive fuel is fired at reduced power output. A gas turbine inlet air cooling technique is a useful option to enhance GT output. One of the innovative options for power augmentation of gas turbine is inlet air conditioning using a vapor absorption machine (VAM). Using VAM for GT intake air conditioning has the advantage over other systems in that it can be operated from waste heat. Many gas turbine machines, particularly natural gas pumping stations, are operated without heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) or heat recovery option. Valuable heat energy is escaped with exhaust flue gas in these systems. This paper demonstrates how GT exhaust waste heat can be utilized for its own power generation enhancement. In this study, a flue gas-based vapor absorption machine is selected for cooling the inlet air of a 26 MW gas turbine, which is used to drive the booster compressor of a natural gas pumping station. The capacity of the VAM for the required cooling effect has been calculated. The expected GT power enhancement from intake air gas conditioning has also been estimated in this paper.

Geospatial forest fire risk assessment and zoning by integrating MaxEnt in Gorkha District, Nepal

Forest fires are an imminent danger to natural forest ecosystems, and carrying out zoning studies and forest fire risk assessments are of great practical significance in steering fire prevention, minimizing fire incidents, and limiting the environmental consequences of fire. Using the Gorkha district of Nepal as a case study, this study used remotely sensed high-temperature fire data as the forest fire sample. Nine parameters related to topography, climatic conditions, vegetation, and human intervention were used as environmental variables affecting fire occurrence. Next, a MaxEnt forest fire risk assessment model was generated with GIS and R, which analysed the contribution, significance, and responses of environmental variables to the forest fire in Gorkha District. The findings demonstrate that (1) following a test of sample locations for forest fires, the MaxEnt model has excellent relevance and practicality when applied to fire risk assessment; (2) Out of 2747 fire points in the forest, only 110 Spatio-temporally independent fire points were used for the model building having high and normal confidence level. Regarding Area Under Curve (AUC) values, the training data yielded results of 0.875, while the test data produced acceptable results of 0.861 with a standard deviation of 0.0322; (3) the importance of climatic and Land Use Land Cover (LULC) variables to forest fire are 56.2 % and 32.9 %, respectively, and their contribution to forest fire are 32 % and 47.6 %, respectively. (4) There are numerous and intricate ways that environmental factors influence forest fires. The forest fire response curves to the nine chosen environmental variables are complex and nonlinear rather than linear; Maximum temperature of the warmest month (bio_5), Isothermality (bio_3), Precipitation of Driest Quarter (bio_17) and mean Diurnal Range (bio_2) bear a nonlinear positive link with the possibility of forest fires. In contrast, elevation, slope, temperature seasonality (bio_4), distance from the settlement, and LULC have a favorable stimulating response to the possibility of forest fires within an appropriate interval. (5) In Gorkha, there are geographical differences in the risk of forest fires. Only 12.83 % of the whole area is made up of areas at significantly high risk or above, compared to 87.17 % for high-risk and below.

Urban air PCDD/Fs: Atmospheric concentrations, temporal changes, gas/particle partitioning, possible sources and cancer risks

Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins/furans (PCDD/Fs) are pollutants of concern due to their toxic effects. No active sampling study on PCDD/Fs has been conducted in Bursa. This study aimed to fill this gap by measuring PCDD/F levels in the region. Accordingly, the samples were collected from an urban area in Bursa, covering four seasons between June 2022 and April 2023. The total (gas+particulate) ambient air concentrations were between 312.23 and 829.80 fg/m3 (mean: 555.05 ± 173.62 fg/m3). In terms of toxic equivalents (TEQ), the average concentration was 43.29 ± 9.18 fg WHOTEQ/m3. Based on the concentration values obtained, cancer and non-carcinogenic risk values of PCDD/Fs were calculated for three different age groups. The results indicated negligible health risks for all age groups. In addition, a seasonal assessment was also made and it was observed that PCDD/F concentration values varied with the ambient air temperatures. In general, higher values were measured in colder months compared to warmer months. This was probably due to the additional sources and adverse meteorological conditions. Moreover, the gas/particle partitioning of PCDD/Fs was investigated in detail. The average gas and particulate phase concentrations for PCDD/Fs were 101.81 ± 20.77 and 453.24 ± 172.50, respectively. It was found that an equilibrium state was not reached in the gas/particle partitioning. Two different gas/particle partition models based on adsorption and absorption mechanisms were compared, and the absorption model gave more consistent predictions. The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was employed to identify the possible PCDD/F sources. The results indicated that the region was influenced by vehicle emissions, residential heating, organized industrial zones and metal recycling facilities. In addition, 72-hour backward air mass trajectory analyses were performed to understand the long-range transported air masses. However, it was found that the transported air masses did not significantly affect the concentration values measured in the sampling site.

Population structure and genetic diversity of false killer whales (Pseudorca crassidens) in New Zealand waters: preliminary results

ABSTRACT False killer whales (Pseudorca crassidens) are globally distributed cetaceans, often found in deep oceanic waters but occasionally near coastlines. Despite their broad distribution, information on their abundance, genetics, and ecology remains limited. In New Zealand waters, these whales occur year-round, with increased sightings during the warmer months due to the East Auckland Current. This study investigates the genetic diversity and population structure of New Zealand false killer whales using 17 samples collected from 2005 to 2018 in four locations, comparing them to global studies. New Zealand samples revealed four unique haplotypes with low genetic diversity (h = 0.42 ± 0.141; π = 0.29%± 0.002). No genetic differentiation was observed between South Pacific and New Zealand populations (FST = 0.05 p = 0.1602 Φ ST = 0.058 p = 0.145). These findings suggest low genetic diversity for New Zealand false killer whales, but within values expected for other cetaceans with matrilineal social structures. The presence of shared haplotypes suggests potential historical or ongoing connections with wider Pacific populations. However, further research is needed due to the short mtDNA-CR fragment analysed and small sample size, which may have resulted in an inability to capture the full extent of the genetic variation. This study contributes to our understanding of this species and its conservation within New Zealand.

Stratospheric influence on surface ozone pollution in China

Events of stratospheric intrusions to the surface (SITS) can lead to severe ozone (O3) pollution. Still, to what extent SITS events impact surface O3 on a national scale over years remains a long-lasting question, mainly due to difficulty of resolving three key SITS metrics: frequency, duration and intensity. Here, we identify 27,616 SITS events over China during 2015-2022 based on spatiotemporally dense surface measurements of O3 and carbon monoxide, two effective indicators of SITS. An overview of the three metrics is presented, illustrating large influences of SITS on surface O3 in China. We find that SITS events occur preferentially in high-elevation regions, while those in plain regions are more intense. SITS enhances surface O3 by 20 ppbv on average, contributing to 30-45% of O3 during SITS periods. Nationally, SITS-induced O3 peaks in spring and autumn, while over 70% of SITS events during the warm months exacerbate O3 pollution. Over 2015-2022, SITS-induced O3 shows a declining trend. Our observation-based results can have implications for O3 mitigation policies in short and long terms.

The influence of rehydration on decomposition in the Highveld region of South Africa-Using a pig model.

Researchers have observed that rainfall may re-initiate decomposition in desiccated tissue; however, no conclusive research-based evidence exists on the specific effects of rehydration on decomposition. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the effects of artificial rehydration on the progression of decomposition following the advanced stage of decomposition. Twelve adult pig cadavers (8 experimental; 4 controls) were placed in the central Highveld of South Africa during cooler (April-July 2021) and warmer (August-November 2021) months. Decomposition was scored approximately biweekly to obtain the total body score, and accumulated degree days (ADD) were calculated for each pig. All pig cadavers were covered by chicken wire cages with transparent tarps to control for natural rehydration and scavenging. Once the experimental pig cadavers reached a three-visit stasis in the advanced phase of decomposition, they were artificially rehydrated, and changes in the progression of decomposition between the control and experimental groups were plotted (ADD against TBS) for observation. The rehydrated experimental pig cadavers showed re-initiation of decay and insect re-colonization, while the control cadavers mainly remained in a state of stasis with insect activity ceased altogether. Greater cadaver decomposition islands and a color change post-rehydration were also noted in some experimental cadavers. This supports the need for future research on the impact of rehydration, including associated soil moisture on decomposition rates, progression, and invertebrate colonization, which will enhance our understanding of the effects these environmental factors have on the accuracy of post-mortem interval estimation.

Seasonal change and influence of environmental variables on host-seeking activity of the biting midge Culicoides sonorensis at a southern California dairy, USA

BackgroundAs a primary vector of bluetongue virus (BTV) in the US, seasonal abundance and diel flight activity of Culicoides sonorensis has been documented, but few studies have examined how time of host-seeking activity is impacted by environmental factors. This knowledge is essential for interpreting surveillance data and modeling pathogen transmission risk.MethodsThe diel host-seeking activity of C. sonorensis was studied on a California dairy over 3 years using a time-segregated trap baited with CO2. The relationship between environmental variables and diel host-seeking activity (start, peak, and duration of activity) of C. sonorensis was evaluated using multiple linear regression. Fisher’s exact test and paired-sample z-test were used to evaluate the seasonal difference and parity difference on diel host-seeking activity.ResultsHost-seeking by C. sonorensis began and reached an activity peak before sunset at a higher frequency during colder months relative to warmer months. The time that host-seeking activity occurred was associated low and high daily temperature as well as wind speed at sunset. Colder temperatures and a greater diurnal temperature range were associated with an earlier peak in host-seeking. Higher wind speeds at sunset were associated with a delayed peak in host-seeking and a shortened duration of host-seeking. Parous midges reached peak host-seeking activity slightly later than nulliparous midges, possibly because of the need for oviposition by gravid females before returning to host-seeking.ConclusionsThis study demonstrates that during colder months C. sonorensis initiates host-seeking and reaches peak host-seeking activity earlier relative to sunset, often even before sunset, compared to warmer months. Therefore, the commonly used UV light-baited traps are ineffective for midge surveillance before sunset. Based on this study, surveillance methods that do not rely on light trapping would provide a more accurate estimate of host-biting risk across seasons. The association of environmental factors to host-seeking shown in this study can be used to improve modeling or prediction of host-seeking activity. This study identified diurnal temperature range as associated with host-seeking activity, suggesting that Culicoides may respond to a rapidly decreasing temperature by shifting to an earlier host-seeking time, though this association needs further study.Graphical

Climate modelling of the potential distribution in South Africa of two Zygogramma species (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) released for the biological control of invasive weed Tithoniarotundifolia (Asteraceae: Heliantheae)

Two Mexican leaf-feeding beetles, Zygogramma piceicollis (Stål) and Zygogramma signatipennis (Stål) (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae), were released in South Africa for the biological control of the invasive species Tithonia rotundifolia (Mill.) S.E. Blake (Asteraceae: Heliantheae). The aim of this study was to predict the potential of these beetles to establish and spread in South Africa, using MaxEnt climate modelling that incorporated locality data recorded in Mexico between 2008 and 2019 and data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility. Zygogramma signatipennis displayed a wider distribution than Z. piceicollis in Mexico, with some overlap between the two species. The average receiver operating characteristic curves obtained for Z. piceicollis and Z. signatipennis predicted high mean area under curve values of 0.910 and 0.885, respectively. Jackknife tests revealed that mean annual temperature had the highest gain when used in isolation for Z. piceicollis, compared with minimum precipitation of the driest month for Z. signatipennis. These tests also revealed that the highest and lowest contributing environmental variables for Z. piceicollis and Z. signatipennis were minimum precipitation of the driest month (37.9 and 46.7%) and maximum annual temperature of the warmest month (3.8 and 12.3%), respectively. MaxEnt modelling predicted that at least six of South Africa’s nine provinces provide regions that would support the proliferation of both beetles, with conditions best suited for Z. piceicollis. Despite predictions that both beetles should establish throughout the range of T. rotundifolia in South Africa, their realized establishment has so far been poor. Other factors, besides climate, including release size, site destructions, drought, soil moisture and texture could be constraining establishment.

A new method of high-resolution NPP estimation and its implementation in caragana shrublands on the Loess Plateau, China

ABSTRACT Accurate estimation for vegetation net primary production (NPP) at high resolution is essential for ecosystem management and at local to global scales. However, no reliable methods are available to achieve fine-resolution estimation. In this study, a new NPP estimation system was developed by integrating high spatial resolution remote sensing images, tree ring measurements, and process-based model CASA. The system was illustrated by estimating the historical NPP of caragana shrublands from 2011 to 2021 in Dingbian County, China. The results showed that: (1) by employing the biomass model and tree ring measurements, an NPP-crown width model was established to enable a large number of samples for calibrating the CASA model on high spatial resolution images without continuous field measurements. The calibrated parameters, including maximum NDVI, minimum NDVI, and maximum light use efficiency, were determined to be 0.415, 0.022 and 0.025, respectively; (2) according to the estimation by the calibrated CASA model, the NPP in Dingbian County revealed an increasing trend from 2011 to 2021, and the NPP in southern hilly and gully regions was significantly higher than the other regions; (3) among the different indices, max temperature of warmest month had a significant negative effect on the NPP of cagarana shrublands, whereas annual precipitation had a positive effect. In the northern and central regions, air temperature predominantly influenced NPP, while in the southern regions, both temperature and precipitation played a joint role. The implementation in this study illustrated that the NPP estimation system could provide reliable NPP with high resolution and efficient to monitor and detect dominant factors affecting NPP for ecosystem management.

Performance evaluation and multi-objective optimization of a hybrid earth-air heat exchanger and building-integrated photovoltaic/thermal system with phase change material and exhaust air heat recovery

The current study explores the feasibility of employing an integrated system comprising an earth-air heat exchanger (EAHE) unit and a photovoltaic/thermal (HPT) system equipped with a phase change material (PCM) to fulfill the heating, cooling, and electrical loads of a building. In this arrangement, ambient air is heated during cold months by passing it through the EAHE and PCM-based HPT systems, and during hot months, it is cooled by passing through the EAHE unit. Additionally, in warm months, the air exiting the building is utilized to lower the temperature of the PV panels. The electricity generated by the PV panels is harnessed to meet a portion or the entirety of the building's electrical demand. Following the identification of factors influencing the system performance, the multi-objectives genetic algorithm (MOGA) approach is employed to ascertain the optimal values of these parameters, aiming to concurrently maximize both the thermal and electrical output of the HPT-EAHE system. The findings indicated that the optimal HPT-EAHE system can fulfill 132693.3 kWh of heating demand for the building during cold months, address 26536.1 kWh of cooling needs during hot months, and generate 9242.2 kWh electrical power throughout the entire year.

Impact of Urbanization on Cloud Characteristics over Sofia, Bulgaria

Urban artificial surfaces and structures induce modifications in land–atmosphere interactions, affecting the exchange of energy, momentum, and substances. These modifications stimulate urban climate formation by altering the values and dynamics of atmospheric parameters, including cloud-related features. This study evaluates the presence and quantifies the extent of such changes over Sofia, Bulgaria. The findings reveal that estimations of low-level cloud base height (CBH) derived from lifting condensation level (LCL) calculations may produce unexpected outcomes due to microclimate influence. Ceilometer data indicate that the CBH of low-level clouds over urban areas exceeds that of surrounding regions by approximately 200 m during warm months and afternoon hours. Moreover, urban clouds exhibit reduced persistence relative to rural counterparts, particularly pronounced in May, June, and July afternoons. Reanalysis-derived low-level cloud cover (LCC) shows no significant disparities between urban and rural areas, although increased LCC is observed above the western and northern city boundaries. Satellite-derived cloud products reveal that the optically thinnest low-level clouds over urban areas exhibit slightly higher cloud tops, but the optically thickest clouds are more prevalent during warm months. These findings suggest an influence of urbanization on cloudiness, albeit nuanced and potentially influenced by the city size and surrounding physical and geographical features.

Predicting suitable areas for Metcalfa pruinosa (Hemiptera: Flatidae) under climate change and implications for management.

Climate change is a prominent factor reshaping the distribution of invasive species. Metcalfa pruinosa (Say 1830) (Hemiptera: Flatidae), native to North America, has invaded other continents and poses a serious threat to various agricultural crops and the human residential environment. Understanding the distribution of M. pruinosa based on climatic conditions is a critical first step to prevent its further invasion. Therefore, based on its occurrence records and associated environmental variables, a Maxent model was developed to predict suitable areas for this species in the present and future on a global scale. The model exhibited outstanding performance, with a mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and true skill statistic values of 0.9329 and 0.926, respectively. The model also indicated that annual precipitation (Bio12) and max temperature of the warmest month (Bio5) were the key environmental variables limiting the distribution of M. pruinosa. Moreover, the model revealed that the current suitable area is 1.01 × 107 km2 worldwide, with southern China, southern Europe, and the eastern United States predicted to be the primary and highly suitable areas in the latter 2 regions. This area is expected to increase under future climate scenarios, mainly in the northern direction. The study's findings contribute to our understanding of climate change's impact on M. pruinosa distribution, and they will aid governments in developing appropriate pest management strategies, including global monitoring and strict quarantine measures.

Fire suppression and land-use strategies drive future dynamics of an invasive plant in a fire-prone mountain area under climate change

Woody invasive alien species can have profound impacts on ecosystem processes and functions, including fire regulation, which can significantly affect landscape resilience. Acacia dealbata, a widespread invasive alien plant in the Iberian Peninsula, holds well-known fire-adaptation traits (e.g., massive soil seed banks and heat-stimulated seed germination). In this study, we assess to what extent fire suppression and land-use strategies could affect the potential distribution of A. dealbata in a fire-prone transboundary protected mountain area of Portugal and Spain, using Habitat Suitability Models. Specifically, we predicted changes in habitat suitability for A. dealbata between years 2010 and 2050. We explored the potential impacts of two land-use strategies ('Business-as-usual' or 'High Nature Value farmlands') combined with three levels of fire suppression effectiveness using the biomod2 package in R. We also considered the potential effects of two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Our modeling approach demonstrated a strong capacity to predict habitat suitability using either climate or land-cover information alone (AUC climate = 0.947; AUC LC = 0.957). According to climate-based models, A. dealbata thrives under conditions characterized by higher precipitation seasonality, higher precipitation in the warmest month, and higher minimum temperature in the coldest month. Regarding land cover, A. dealbata thrives mainly in landscapes dominated by urban areas and evergreen forest plantations. Our models forecasted that habitat suitability by 2050 could either increase or decrease depending on the specific combinations of fire suppression, land-use, and climate scenarios. Thus, a combination of business-as-usual and fire-exclusion strategies would enhance habitat suitability for the species. Conversely, management promoting High Nature Value farmlands would decrease the available suitable habitat, particularly under low fire suppression efforts. These findings suggest that promoting sustainable farming activities could impede the spread of A. dealbata by reducing habitat availability, while strategies aiming at fire-exclusion could facilitate its expansion, likely by enabling establishment and large seed production. This study highlights the complex interplay between fire-prone invasive species, fire and land-use strategies, and climate change; and thus the need to consider the interactions between land-use and fire management to promote invasive species control and landscape resilience.

Observed Climatology and Variability of Cattle Heat Stress in Australia

Abstract Exposure to weather extremes, such as heatwaves, can cause discomfort, harm, or death in grazing cattle in pastures. While the Australian Bureau of Meteorology issues sheep graziers alerts when there is an exposure risk to chill for livestock, there is no equivalent alert for heat stress for Australian cattle. Before any such alert system can be developed, a robust assessment and comparison of relevant cattle thermal stress indices is required. This study evaluates and compares the multiyear climatology of three cattle thermal heat stress indices across Australia in the warm season months (October–March). The same indices are then used to assess historical Australian heat events where cattle died from heat exposure. These events are based off official records and survey responses from northern Australian graziers. In the seven historical heat events studied, high relative humidity combined with low wind speeds, or high solar exposure combined with high surface temperatures, exacerbated the impact of heat stress on cattle. In the two historic events where multiple compounding weather factors combined (e.g., high humidity, low winds, and high solar exposure), the cattle mortality levels were significantly high. These events were characterized by rainy conditions followed by a rapid warming, meaning cattle were likely unable to acclimatize to such dramatic temperature changes. This study highlights the need for using more than one thermal stress index when verifying cattle heat stress events and, importantly, calls for further research on standardizing the risk classifications of these thermal indices for cattle in Australia’s variable climate. Significance Statement Cattle across Australia’s northern tropical and semiarid regions often experience extreme hot and humid conditions in the summer months, which increases the risk of heat stress. This is the first study of its kind to evaluate observations of cattle heat stress across Australia using indices that describe the combined effects of solar exposure, wind speed, relative humidity, and surface temperatures. These cattle heat stress indices can be used to evaluate historical cattle mortality events in feedlots and in grazed pastures. This study lays the groundwork for the development of Australian-wide cattle heat stress forecast products on the 7-day to multiweek time scales.

Stable isotope evidence for long-term stability of large-scale hydroclimate in the Neogene North American Great Plains

Abstract. The Great Plains of North America host a stark climatic gradient, separating the humid and well-watered eastern US from the semi-arid and arid western US, and this gradient shapes the region's water availability, its ecosystems, and its economies. This climatic boundary is largely set by the influence of two competing atmospheric circulation systems that meet over the Great Plains – the wintertime westerlies bring dominantly dry air that gives way to moist, southerly air transported by the Great Plains low-level jet in the warmer months. Climate model simulations suggest that, as CO2 rises, this low-level jet will strengthen, leading to greater precipitation in the spring but less in the summer and, thus, no change in mean annual precipitation. Combined with rising temperatures that will increase potential evapotranspiration, semi-arid conditions will shift eastward, with potentially large consequences for the ecosystems and inhabitants of the Great Plains. We examine how hydroclimate in the Great Plains varied in the past in response to warmer global climate by studying the paleoclimate record within the Ogallala Formation, which underlies nearly the entire Great Plains and provides a spatially resolved record of hydroclimate during the globally warmer late Miocene. We use the stable isotopes of oxygen (δ18O) as preserved in authigenic carbonates hosted within the abundant paleosol and fluvial successions that comprise the Ogallala Formation as a record of past hydroclimate. Today, and coincident with the modern aridity gradient, there is a sharp meteoric water δ18O gradient with high (−6 ‰ to 0 ‰) δ18O in the southern Great Plains and low (−12 ‰ to −18 ‰) δ18O in the northern plains. We find that the spatial pattern of reconstructed late Miocene precipitation δ18O is indistinguishable from the spatial pattern of modern meteoric water δ18O. We use a recently developed vapor transport model to demonstrate that this δ18O spatial pattern requires air mass mixing over the Great Plains between dry westerly and moist southerly air masses in the late Miocene – consistent with today. Our results suggest that the spatial extents of these two atmospheric circulation systems have been largely unchanged since the late Miocene and any strengthening of the Great Plains low-level jet in response to warming has been isotopically masked by proportional increases in westerly moisture delivery. Our results hold implications for the sensitivity of Great Plains climate to changes in global temperature and CO2 and also for our understanding of the processes that drove Ogallala Formation deposition in the late Miocene.