Warm Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Research Articles

Moderate Indian Ocean Dipole Dominates Spring Fire Weather Conditions in Southern Australia

Abstract Patterns of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) exhibit strong diversity, ranging from being dominated by the western tropical Indian ocean (WTIO) to by the eastern tropical Indian ocean (ETIO). How the different types of the IOD variability patterns affect Australian fires differently is unknown, nor is it certain how the impacts may change under greenhouse warming. Here, we find that the moderate IOD, dominated by WTIO sea surface temperature (SST) variability, plays a primary role in affecting southern Australian fire weather conditions during austral spring. During a positive moderate IOD, broad-scaled warm SST anomalies in WTIO force an atmospheric stationary Rossby wave with a high-pressure anomaly over southern Australia. This elevated pressure and associated anomalous atmospheric conditions provide suitable fire weather with hot, dry, and windy conditions, raising fire risks in southern Australia. Such impact is distinctively different from that strong IOD-induced. As predicted by climate models, decreased moderate IOD variability in the future will result in weakened Australian fire weather responses.

Weakened western Indian Ocean dominance on Antarctic sea ice variability in a changing climate.

Patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) exhibit strong diversity, ranging from being dominated by the western tropical Indian Ocean (WTIO) to the eastern tropical Indian Ocean (ETIO). Whether and how the different types of IOD variability patterns affect the variability of Antarctic sea ice is not known, nor is how the impact may change in a warming climate. Here, we find that the leading mode of austral spring Antarctic sea ice variability is dominated by WTIO SST variability rather than ETIO SST or El Niño-Southern Oscillation. WTIO warm SST anomalies excite a poleward-propagating Rossby wave, inducing a tri-polar anomaly pattern characterized by a decrease in sea ice near the Amundsen Sea but an increase in regions on both sides. Such impact has been weakening in the two decades post-2000, accompanied by weakened WTIO SST variability. Under greenhouse warming, climate models project a decrease in WTIO SST variability, suggesting that the reduced impact on Antarctic sea ice from the IOD will likely to continue, facilitating a fast decline of Antarctic sea ice.

The Contrast Precipitation Patterns in Yangtze River Valley Between the Two La Niña Decaying Summers in 2021 and 2022

AbstractAlthough the summers of 2021 and 2022 are both in the two successive La Niña decaying stages and under the same climate background of negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase and global warming trend, they exhibit significantly different and even opposite precipitation patterns in the Yangtze River Valley (YRV) as well as in the Indian monsoon region (IMR). In contrast to the abundant precipitation and lower temperature in the YRV in summer 2021, in summer 2022 the YRV experiences severe drought and extremely high temperatures, which is also accompanied by Mega‐floods in the IMR. This study identifies the joint influence of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in Niño4 and Barents Sea (BS) regions as the underlying cause for the contrast YRV precipitation anomalies in the summers of 2021 and 2022. Specifically, the cold SSTAs in both Niño4 and BS regions in summer 2021 favor stronger and southward shifted western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH), leading to more precipitation in the YRV, which is however generally reversed but more intense in summer 2022 because of the synergistic effect of cold Niño4 and warm BS SSTAs. Moreover, the induced extreme precipitation in the IMR in summer 2022, which is absent in summer 2021 due to the offsetting effect of cold SSTAs in both Niño4 and BS regions, in turn further strengthens the anomalous atmospheric circulations via its released large diabatic heating and serves as a relay pathway for the dramatic drought and heat wave in the YRV.

Seasonal predictability of SST anomalies and marine heatwaves over the Kuroshio extension region in the Copernicus C3S models

The warm sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) and marine heatwaves (MHWs) in the Kuroshio Extension (KE) region have profound impacts on local and surrounding ecological and climatic systems. This study evaluates the seasonal prediction skills of KE-SSTAs and KE-MHWs based on six dynamical models from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) using different observational datasets for verification and further investigates the main sources of predictability. The results show that current dynamical models can provide reliable predictions for KE-SSTAs for up to about 4 months, but they are challenging to accurately predict the occurrence of KE-MHWs. Compared with single models, the C3S multi-model ensemble mean is usually more skillful in predicting KE-SSTAs and KE-MHWs at most lead times. With lead time increasing, the dynamical models tend to underestimate the mean intensity and annual frequency of the KE-MHWs and overestimate their mean duration. The performance of models in predicting KE-SSTAs is largely dependent on their ability to predict the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, and El Niño–Southern Oscillation which all significantly influence the KE-SSTAs. The results indicate that these three climate modes are the main sources of seasonal predictability for KE-SSTAs and KE-MHWs. These results provide a deeper understanding of the dynamical seasonal predictability of SSTAs and MHWs in the KE region.

The impact of tropical sea surface temperature on extreme precipitation in Pakistan during the summer of 2022

In August 2022, Pakistan experienced an unprecedented precipitation event that caused significant damage. Analysis of the observations reveals that this extreme rainfall is primarily driven by anomalous atmospheric zonal advection, resulting in an anomalous water vapor concentration in Pakistan. The climatological meridional advection also contributes to this flooding. Anomalous easterly winds and low-level vertical convection combine to be critical factors contributing to the moisture concentration over the country. Further investigation identifies the air-sea interaction over the tropical Indian Ocean and abnormal warming over the Arabian Sea are crucial factors influencing this extreme flooding event. The concurrent occurrence of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole event and the warming sea surface temperature anomalies in the northern Arabian Sea intensifies the easterly winds over Pakistan, helping to transfer the anomalous water vapor from the remote region into Pakistan, ultimately contributing to the extreme flooding in 2022.

Modulation of Western South Atlantic Marine Heatwaves by Meridional Ocean Heat Transport

AbstractMarine heatwaves and cold spells are extreme surface temperature events that have been associated with adverse societal and ecosystem impacts in several regions around the globe. Predicting these events presents a challenge because of their generally short‐lived nature and dependence on air‐sea interactions, both locally and remotely. Here we analyze oceanic propagating features that promote the occurrence of marine heatwaves and cold spells in the western subtropical South Atlantic. The main interannual feature detected from satellite sea level data since 1993 shows a westward propagating zonal pattern with a periodicity of 3–5 years. The pattern has a significant in‐phase correlation with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the western South Atlantic, explaining 82% of the daily extreme warm (90th percentile) and cold (10th percentile) SST anomalies and consequently modulating interannual variations in the intensity and duration of marine heatwave and cold spell events. It is found that meridional oceanic advection plays an important role in the regional heat budget associated with the westward‐propagating mode, modulating the meridional exchange of tropical (warm) and extratropical (cold) waters in the western subtropical South Atlantic region and thereby setting a baseline for temperature extremes on interannual timescales. This propagating mode is well correlated (r > 0.6) with the strength of the meridional overturning circulation at 25°S and 30°S with a lag of approximately 3–9 months. The lagged response provides a potential source of predictability of extreme events in the western South Atlantic.

The Tropical Atlantic's Asymmetric Impact on the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation

AbstractUsing observations and Atlantic forced coupled model simulations, we show evidence for an asymmetry in the link between beginning of year tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) and end of the year El Niño‐Southern Oscillation events. We find a greater tendency for warm Atlantic SSTAs to lead to a La Niña than for cold anomalies to lead to El Niño. The model experiments showed that the Atlantic had a greater chance to force the tropical Pacific if the Pacific was initially in a neutral state. In the model, a warm Atlantic from March–May was able to produce an atmospheric response leading to easterly wind anomalies in the western Pacific. This in turn induces a subsurface oceanic response, leading to La Niña at the end of the year. The atmospheric response does not occur for a cold Atlantic, leading to no impacts in the Pacific.

MJO-Induced Warm Pool Eastward Extension Prior to the Onset of El Niño: Observations from 1998 to 2019

Abstract The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are the two most important tropical phenomena that affect global weather and climate on intraseasonal and interannual time scales. Although they occur on different time scales, the MJO-induced sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the equatorial Pacific have spatial scales similar to SST anomalies prior to El Niño. This study aims to address the question of whether the MJO plays an important role in the warm pool eastward extension (WPEE) leading up to El Niño. We use over 20 years of satellite observations, including optimum interpolated SST, TRMM-GPM precipitation, and the cross-calibrated multiplatform (CCMP) surface winds from 1998 to 2019, to quantify the spatial structure and duration of the MJO-induced warm SST anomalies over the equatorial Pacific (10°S–10°N, 130°E–180°). The intensity of the MJO is measured by the total rain volume and average surface westerly wind speed throughout its convectively active phase. Results show that 1) 61% of the 98 MJO events induced a WPEE over 1000–3000 km along the equator, which can last beyond 15–30 days after the MJO precipitation ended; 2) the MJO events prior to El Niño are generally stronger and produce significant WPEE far beyond its annual cycle and increasing SST warming in the Niño-3.4 region; 3) consecutive MJO events can produce much stronger WPEE prior to El Niño, which are observed in all El Niño events from 1998 to 2019; and 4) more frequent and stronger MJO-induced WPEE occurs in March–May than other seasons. These results can help better understand the MJO–ENSO interaction and, ultimately, improve the prediction of El Niño onset.

The Influence of Freshwater Input on the Evolution of the 1995 Benguela Niño

AbstractBenguela Niño events are characterized by strong warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies off the Angolan and Namibian coasts. In 1995, the strongest event in the satellite era took place, impacting fish availability in both Angolan and Namibian waters. In this study, we use direct observations, satellite data, and reanalysis products to investigate the impact that the up‐until‐now unnoticed mechanism of freshwater input from Congo River discharge (CRD) and precipitation had on the evolution of the 1995 Benguela Niño. In the onset phase of the event, anomalous rainfall in November/December 1994 at around 6°S, combined with a high CRD, generated a low salinity plume. The plume was advected into the Angola‐Namibia region in the following February/March 1995 by an anomalously strong poleward surface current generated by the relaxation of the southerly winds and shifts in the coastal wind stress curl. The presence of this low surface salinity anomaly of about −2 psu increased ocean stability by generating barrier layers, thereby reducing the turbulent heat loss, since turbulent mixing acted on a weak vertical temperature gradient. A mixed layer heat budget analysis demonstrates that southward advection of Angolan waters drove the warming at the onset, while reduced mixing played the main role at the event's peak. We conclude that a freshwater input contributed to the SST increase in this exceptionally strong event and suggest that this input can influence the SST variability in Angola‐Namibia waters through a combination of high CRD, precipitation, and the presence of a strong poleward surface current.

Influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on the Rapid Intensification Magnitude of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific

Abstract Rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs), which refers to an explosive increase of TC intensity exceeding a certain threshold [e.g., 30 kt (1 kt ≈ 0.51 m s−1) in 24 h] within a short time period, poses a great challenge to both forecasting and disaster prevention efforts. Recent studies have documented a significant increase in the magnitude of TC RI (RIM; measured as the mean intensification rate of all TC RI records in a TC season) over the western North Pacific (WNP) since 1979, and have attributed it to the impacts of global warming. In this study, results from statistical analyses show that the TC RIM over the WNP during 1951–2021 exhibits significant interdecadal variability, which is found to be closely related to the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). Further analyses indicate that the response of the local thermodynamic conditions to the AMO plays a dominant role in shaping this relationship. The positive AMO phase fosters a high TC RIM over the WNP by producing significant warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, which in turn enhances TC heat potential and the midtropospheric relative humidity in the main region of TC RI occurrence. Results from both data analyses and numerical model experiments demonstrate that the AMO modulates thermodynamic conditions over the WNP, such as SST and ocean heat content, by affecting local heat fluxes and the Ekman heat transport in the WNP via the modulation of Walker circulation from the Atlantic to the Pacific.

Causes of Diverse Impacts of ENSO on the Southeast Asian Summer Monsoon among CMIP6 Models

Abstract This study examines the fidelity of 47 models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) in representing the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the Southeast Asian summer monsoon (SEASM) during the ENSO decaying summer. The response of the SEASM to ENSO shows a large model spread among the models, some of which even simulate opposite signs of SEASM anomalies compared to the observed values. The bad-performance models (BPMs) are therefore selected to be compared with both the good-performance models (GPMs) and observations to explore the possible causes of the deficiency. Results show that in the BPMs, the ENSO-related warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies extend too far westward in the western equatorial Pacific (WEP) and they do not dissipate in the El Niño decaying summer in comparison with those in the GPMs and observations, interfering with the effect of ENSO on the SEASM. The slow decay of WEP SST anomalies from the El Niño mature winter to the decaying summer in the BPMs is mainly caused by a weak negative shortwave radiation feedback due to a low sensitivity of convection to local SST anomalies, which is related to the cold bias in climatological SST over this region. On the other hand, from the mature winter to the decaying summer of El Niño, the El Niño–related anomalous eastward current does not reverse to a westward current in the BPMs, which also contributes to the slow decay of WEP SST anomalies via inducing excessively persistent warm zonal advection. Significance Statement We investigate the possible causes of the diverse impacts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the Southeast Asian summer monsoon (SEASM) among 47 CMIP6 models. We find that a plausible reason for the deficiency of some models in simulating the influence of ENSO on the monsoon is that the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with ENSO are unrealistic in the western equatorial Pacific (WEP) in these models. Further diagnoses indicate that the unrealistic WEP SST anomalies are related to the cold bias of the climatological SST, which could lead to a weak negative shortwave radiation feedback and excessively persistent warm zonal advection. The information provided in this study is useful for improving the skill of the climate models in representing the ENSO–SEASM relationship.

Different mechanisms of air temperature anomalies in the Yangtze River between early and late summer

The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLRYR) exhibit notable interannual variability in seasonal-mean air temperature amid ongoing global warming. This study elucidates the specific mechanisms governing anomalous air temperatures during early (June) and late summer (July to August) in the MLRYR. Early summer temperatures arise from anomalous sinking driven by negative anomalies in moist enthalpy advection in the lower troposphere, as a response to warm sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the tropical western Pacific. This induces a low-level cyclone anomaly over Southeast Asia, reducing specific humidity and determining anomalous vertical motion over the MLRYR. In contrast, late summer temperatures are induced by mid-upper tropospheric descending anomalies over the MLRYR. The combined influence of SSTA in the western Pacific and North Atlantic sustains warmer air by reinforcing a barotropic anticyclone over North China through a mid-latitude wave train. Subsequent anomalous negative potential vorticity advection in the upper troposphere strengthens sinking motion over the MLRYR. The seasonal evolution of the East Asian summer monsoon and SSTA is pivotal in the distinct mechanisms governing warmer air temperatures over the MLRYR. While numerical experiments capture general features, the regulation of SSTA is subject to uncertainty due to the atmospheric intrinsic patterns. This research distinguishes predictability sources of air temperature anomalies over the MLRYR between early and late summer, emphasizing the combined influence of SSTA beyond the ENSO domain on East Asian climate.

Distinct Features of Atmospheric Rivers over the Western North Pacific in Post–El Niño and Non-Post–El Niño Summers

Abstract An atmospheric river (AR) is a highly accumulated line of moisture, which often preconditions heavy rainfall events. Considering the short-lived nature of ARs, we aim to understand their characteristics over the western North Pacific (WNP) in boreal summer, focusing on the difference between the post–El Niño (pEN) and non-post–El Niño (npEN) cases in weekly segments rather than the seasonal mean. We found that during AR-active weeks in pEN summers, a meridional dipole pattern of anomalous geopotential height with a more westward-extended WNP subtropical high dominates, favoring AR activity over southern China to the central Pacific. In npEN summers, in contrast, a zonal dipole pattern with an anomalous low over southeast China and an anomalous high over subtropical WNP is pronounced during the AR-active weeks, which is accompanied with warm sea surface temperature anomalies and greater downward shortwave radiation to the southeast of Japan. Such anomalous circulation leads to enhanced AR occurrence over the northern South China Sea (SCS) to Japan. The above differences in the AR features between the two cases appear as the distinct regionality in the AR-related rainfall over eastern China and Japan. Temporal decompositions reveal that both seasonal mean and submonthly variations play dominant roles in the anomalous circulation during AR-active weeks in pEN summers, while the submonthly variations are more pronounced in npEN summers. Further analysis also suggests that tropical cyclones could impact AR occurrence in both cases with different patterns of atmospheric responses, inducing remarkable AR enhancement over the northern SCS in npEN summers.

Relationship between the AMOC and the Multidecadal Variability of the Midlatitude Southern Indian Ocean

Abstract Air–sea coupling system in the southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO; 35°–55°S, 40°–75°E) exhibits predominant multidecadal variability that is the strongest during austral summer. It is characterized by an equivalent barotropic atmospheric high (low) pressure over warm (cold) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and a poleward (equatorward) shift of the westerlies during the positive (negative) phase. In this study, physical processes of this multidecadal variability are investigated by using observations/reanalysis and CMIP6 model simulations. Results suggest that the multidecadal fluctuation can be explained by the modulation of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the local air–sea positive feedback in the SWIO. In both observations/reanalysis and CMIP6 model simulations, the AMOC fluctuation presents a significantly negative correlation with the multidecadal SST variation in the SWIO when the AMOC is leading by about a decade. The mechanisms are that the preceding AMOC variation can cause an interhemispheric dipolar pattern of SST anomalies in the Atlantic Ocean. Subsequently, the SST anomalies in the midlatitudes of the South Atlantic can propagate to the SWIO by the oceanic Rossby wave under the influence of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). Once the SST anomalies reach the SWIO, these SST anomalies in the oceanic front can affect the baroclinicity in the lower troposphere to influence the synoptic transient eddy and then cause the atmospheric circulation anomaly via the eddy–mean flow interaction. Subsequently, the anomalous atmospheric circulation over the SWIO can significantly strengthen the SST anomalies through modifying the oceanic meridional temperature advection and latent and sensible heat flux.

The initial errors occurring over Pacific-Atlantic Oceans and exerting large disturbing effect on ENSO predictability

Using a novel data analysis method for predictability dynamics, the impacts of initial sea surface temperature (SST) errors over Pacific and Atlantic Oceans on the predictability of eastern and central Pacific El Niño (i.e., EP and CP El Niño) are investigated. The results reveal the initial SST errors that cause large disturbing effects on EP and CP El Niño forecasting, respectively. These initial errors are both exhibiting a positive-negative-positive-negative-positive chain structure along the direction from northwest to southeast over the Pacific for EP and CP El Niño, which resemble a combined mode of North Pacific Victoria Mode (VM), eastern tropical Pacific positive SST pattern (ETPPSP), and South Pacific meridional mode (SPMM); simultaneously, they exhibit a positive-negative meridional dipole pattern over South Atlantic, referred to as South Atlantic subtropical dipole mode (SASD); additionally, there exist initial warm SST anomalies in the equatorial Atlantic for EP El Niño and in the north tropical Atlantic for the CP El Niño. The above initial errors lead to the underestimation of both CP and EP El Niño. Further analyses illustrate that the initial warm SST errors in the north tropical Atlantic are positively correlated with the VM-like error pattern, which competed with the effect of the ETPPSP, makes the intensity of CP El Niño underestimated; whereas the SASD-like error pattern is revealed to have a positive relationship with the SPMM-like error mode, which only exists during EP El Niño period and interacts with the ETPPSP for much weak EP El Niño intensity. It is obvious that, for predicting which type of El Niño will occur, attention should also be paid to the initial sea temperature accuracy in the Atlantic Ocean under the interference effect of the Pacific Ocean temperature uncertainties.

Decadal Enhancement in the Effect of El Niño in the Decaying Stage on the Pre–Flood Season Precipitation over Southern China

Abstract The abundant precipitation over Southern China during the pre–flood season (PFS) [i.e., April–June (AMJ)] has important socioeconomic impacts on this densely populated region. Using observational and reanalyzed datasets, this study explores how El Niño affected the subsequent PFS precipitation over Southern China during 1961–2020. The results show that the El Niño–related anomalies in sea surface temperature forced a northwestern Pacific anomalous anticyclone (NPAAC) in the decaying AMJ. This NPAAC featured southwesterly wind anomalies in its northwestern flank, which could transport moisture from the South China Sea, and accompanying the NPAAC there was abnormal descending motion over the tropical western Pacific, resulting in weakened regional Hadley circulation with abnormal ascending motion over subtropical East Asia. Before the 1990s, this abnormal ascending motion was located mainly to the east of Southern China with insignificant impacts on the PFS precipitation there. In contrast, after the early 1990s, El Niño–related warm sea surface temperature anomalies were stronger and longer-lasting with westward extension. This enhanced the NPAAC with a decadal westward extension, and consequently, the anomalous regional Hadley circulation was more evident over Southern China after the early 1990s during the El Niño decaying AMJ, causing strong abnormal upward motion and excessive precipitation there. The present results emphasize an enhancing influence of El Niño on the subsequent PFS precipitation over Southern China since the early 1990s, offering better understanding of the interannual precipitation variability over Southern China and with important implications for regional seasonal climate prediction. Significance Statement The precipitation over Southern China during the pre–flood season (PFS) contributes between 40% and 50% of the local annual precipitation, with severe floods occurring frequently and tremendous socioeconomic impacts on the region, including on its agriculture, water resources, food security, ecosystems, disaster mitigation, infrastructure construction, and human health. This study reveals a decadal enhancement in the effect of El Niño on the subsequent PFS precipitation over Southern China since the early 1990s. This is ascribed to a decadal enhancement of El Niño–related warm sea surface temperature anomalies over the equatorial central Pacific, as a result of El Niño warming occurring more frequently over the central Pacific against the backdrop of global warming. To the extent that the central Pacific El Niño events would occur even more frequently for the projected future warming scenarios, a stronger effect of El Niño on the PFS precipitation over Southern China would be expected, implying potentially enhanced seasonal predictability of the regional climate in the future.

Impact of Sea Surface Temperature in the Extratropical Southern Indian Ocean on Antarctic Sea Ice in Austral Spring

Abstract The relationship between the seasonal Antarctic sea ice concentration (SIC) variability and the extratropical southern Indian Ocean (SIO) sea surface temperature (SST) is explored in this study. It is found that the Antarctic SIC in a wide band of the SIO, Ross Sea, and Weddell Sea is significantly related to an SIO dipole (SIOD) SST anomaly on the interannual time scale during austral spring. This relationship is linearly independent of the effects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the Indian Ocean dipole, and the Southern Hemisphere annular mode. The positive phase of the SIOD, with warm SST anomalies off of western Australia and cold SST anomalies centered around 60°E in high latitudes, stimulates a downstream wave train that induces large-scale cyclonic circulations over the SIO and the Ross and Weddell Seas. Subsequently, anomalous horizontal moisture advection causes water vapor divergence, changes the surface energy budget, and cools the underlying ocean, which leads to the increased SIC over the region in the SIO, Ross Sea, and Weddell Sea. This SIOD SST anomaly reached a record low during the austral spring of 2016 and promoted the prominent wave pattern at high latitudes, contributing to the dramatic decline of sea ice in the 2016 spring. In addition, the proportion of the SIC trend that is linearly congruent with the SIOD SST trend during austral spring is quantified. The results indicate that the trend in the SIOD SST may account for a significant component of the 1979–2014 SIC trend in the Ross Sea with the congruency peaking at 60%.

A Mechanism for the Generation of a Warm SST Anomaly in the Western Equatorial Pacific: A Pathway Perspective

AbstractProcesses leading to the onset and development of an El Niño event in the tropical Pacific remain elusive. Observed data and Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) simulations are used to reveal a well‐defined pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) perturbations along the mean North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC) pathways in association with the onset and evolution of some El Niño events. The OGCM‐based sensitivity experiments are conducted to illustrate how a warm SST anomaly (SSTA) on the equator can result from a thermal forcing that is prescribed north of 10°N, similar to observed SST anomalies in December 1988. Within approximately one year, the imposed SST anomaly north of 10°N tends to be transported to the dateline region on the equator by the mean ocean circulation in the western Pacific (the low‐latitude western boundary current and the NECC). In due course, an upper‐layer ocean warming is generated off the equator at 6–10°N and then on the equator, which acts to induce a westerly wind anomaly response; a simple statistical atmospheric wind stress model is then used to depict an expected westerly wind response. These resultant SST and surface wind perturbations can couple together over the western tropical Pacific, forming air‐sea interactions and setting up a stage for El Niño onset. As such, this pathway mechanism can reasonably well explain the first appearance of a warm SST anomaly on the equator in the dateline region and the corresponding development of westerly wind anomalies over the western Pacific in association with El Niño onset.

Understanding the Forcing Mechanisms of the 1931 Summer Flood along the Yangtze River, the World’s Deadliest Flood on Record

Abstract The 1931 Yangtze River flood in eastern China, which had an associated death toll of over 2 million, is regarded as one of the world’s deadliest natural disasters on record. However, due to the lack of meteorological data before the 1950s, the causes of this event are rarely investigated. Here, we combine multiple lines of evidence from recently available historical observations, reanalysis datasets, and atmospheric general circulation model simulations driven by historical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) that cover the early twentieth century to reveal the physical mechanisms underlying this flood. We find that the flooding in 1931 along the Yangtze River valley was dominated by July rainfall. Although the rainfall totals in July 1931 were not the largest in history (ranking second over the past century), the totals exceeded those for many other pluvial years between 1951 and 2010 in terms of its persistence, which was associated with a steady western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH). The flooding resulted from the combined effects of tropical El Niño–related SST forcing and extratropical wave activities over the Eurasian continent. On the one hand, warm SST anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean following an El Niño event led to the southwestward extension of the WPSH. On the other hand, the southward shift of the westerly jet due to extratropical wave activities prevented the normal northward movement of the WPSH typical in July. Additionally, the impact that the preceding springtime precipitation and soil moisture had on the summer flood of 1931 is also discussed.

Roles of Dynamic and Thermodynamic Processes in Regulating the Decay Paces of El Niño Events

Abstract Most El Niño events decay after a peak in boreal winter, but some persist and strengthen again in the following year. Several mechanisms for regulating its decay pace have been proposed; however, their relative contributions have not been thoroughly examined yet. By analyzing the fast-decaying and persistent types of the events in a 1200-yr coupled simulation, we quantify the key dynamic and thermodynamic processes in the decaying spring that are critical to determining the decay pace of El Niño. The zonal advection due to upwelling Kelvin wave accounts for twice as much the cooling difference as evaporation or meridional advection does. The upwelling Kelvin wave is much stronger in the fast-decaying events than the others, and its strength is equally attributed to the reflected equatorial Rossby wave and the equatorial easterly wind forcing over the western Pacific in the preceding 2–3 months. Relative to the fast-decaying events, the evaporative cooling is weaker but the meridional warm advection is stronger in the persistent events. The former is due to more meridionally asymmetric wind and sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) signaling positive Pacific meridional mode. The latter results from the advection of equatorial warm SSTA by climatological divergent flow, and the warmer SSTA persists from the mature stage subject to weaker cloud-radiative cooling in response to the central-Pacific-type SSTA distribution in the persistent events relative to the fast-decaying events. Our result consolidates the existing knowledge and provides a more comprehensive and physical pathway for the causality of El Niño’s diverse duration.