Warm Nights Research Articles

CMIP6 projected response of the East Asian winter climate to the sea ice‐free Arctic

AbstractThis article evaluated the performance of 19 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models in simulating the Arctic sea ice from the perspective of annual cycle, spatial pattern and temporal variation. Based on the evaluation, five models with better comprehensive performance capacity were optimized as the ensemble to project the response of the East Asian winter climate to the sea ice‐free Arctic occurring under the SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios, respectively. The ensemble projections indicate that the sea ice‐free Arctic is followed by a weakening of the East Asian winter monsoon, which is characterized with the shallower East Asian trough and weaker East Asian jet stream. Concurrently, the winter surface net radiation flux is projected to increase in the East Asian‐western North Pacific region. These changes favour large‐scale warming in the East Asian‐western North Pacific region. Moreover, the warming is more pronounced under the sea ice‐free Arctic of SSP2‐4.5 than under that of SSP5‐8.5. The winter precipitation tends to increase along the East Asian coast from South China to the Sea of Okhotsk. Such an increase is closely associated with the enhancement of low‐level moisture. Due to larger enhancement of moisture, there appears greater increase of precipitation in the monsoon region from South China to Japan under the sea ice‐free Arctic of SSP5‐8.5 compare to that under SSP2‐4.5. Substantial changes are also projected for the temperature and precipitation extremes, such as a general increase in warm days and warm nights and an overall intensification of extreme precipitation in the East Asian‐western North Pacific region.

Climate change projections and impacts on the eucalyptus plantation around the Doce River basin, in Minas Gerais, Brazil

The goal of this work is to assess the precipitation and temperature trends in climate change projections in the state of Minas Gerais in Brazil, with emphasis on the Doce River basin, using high resolution climate projections suitable for the scale of the basin. Tailored impact assessment of climate change on eucalyptus plantation in terms of thermal and water stress is provided for the basin. We analyzed the downscaling of climate change projections produced by the Eta regional model at 20-km nested to three global models, CanESM2-ES, HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5, and at 5-km resolutions nested to HadGEM2-ES. In historical period, the temperature and precipitation patterns are reproduced by the Eta model. The 5-km Eta simulations provides more spatial detail of the maximum precipitation near the regions of high topography, although in these areas, precipitation is overestimated with respect to the WorldClim data. All projections agree with a warmer climate in the basin until 2070. Precipitation projections indicate a decrease in future periods. The analysis of extreme temperature indices shows an increase in warm days and warm nights and a decrease in cold days and in cold nights until 2070. Future projections indicate trends of reduction in annual rainfall and increase in consecutive dry days. Regarding the eucalyptus, future productivity may be at risk, as most locations will meet more frequently the water stress conditions. Six locations may meet both thermal and water stress conditions and become unsuitable for eucalyptus plantation if only climate factors are considered.

Changes in the pattern of heat waves and the impacts on Holstein cows in a subtropical region.

This study aimed to evaluate the change in the air temperature and the impacts of heat waves using Climate Change Indexes on the physiological and productive responses of lactating Holstein cows. Daily data of maximum and minimum air temperature for 1981-2021 were used. Heat waves were determined using six Climate Change Indexes. Individual data on respiratory rate, rectal temperature, and milk yield were collected in the summers of 2018, 2019, and 2021. The temperature trend analysis showed a significant (p < 0.0001) increase in maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and days in a heat wave. All six indexes increased significantly (p > 0.01). The increase in warm nights (> 20°C) and the hottest days (> 35°C) was the highest since 2010. Heat waves were classified into short (< 5days) and long (> 5days) of greater (> 36°C) or lesser (< 36°C) intensity. During the long and short heat waves of greater intensity, the respiratory rate increased (p < 0.05) until the fourth day. On the other hand, rectal temperature was higher (p < 0.05) from the fourth day until the end of the long heat waves. Therefore, the decrease in milk yield was significantly greater from the fourth or fifth day onwards. Finally, the evaluation method based on indexes was efficient to demonstrate the negative effects on physiological parameters and milk yield and can be indicated to evaluate heat stress in lactating cows.

Shade Screen and Citriculture

Sustain citriculture faces various environmental challenges like rising temperature, increase solar radiation, and warm nights during flower bud induction, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. Shading net represents an intermediate solution to maintain the growth and productivity of citrus trees under fluctuation in climate conditions. Shading techniques protect plants from different biotic and abiotic stresses, by modifying the microclimate around the trees. Numerous benefits of shading net include reducing leaves temperature and decreasing light intensity, particularly at midday in the summer season, improving tree vigor, reduce physiological disorder and enhancing fruit quality.

A comprehensive analysis of observed and projected climate extremes of temperature and precipitation in Belo Monte Hydropower Plant ‐ eastern Amazon, Brazil

AbstractIn this work, the climatology, observed trends, and future projections of temperature and precipitation extremes are analysed in the drainage area of the Belo Monte Hydropower Plant in the Xingu River basin. Observed data come from gridded information for the period 1980–2013. The climate projections until the end of the 21st century are provided by the regional climate model Eta‐20 km nested to the global climate model MIROC5. Seventeen climate indicators were selected for this assessment, and statistical tests were used to evaluate the significance and magnitude of trends. A tropical climate predominates in the whole basin but with differences in the climatology of extreme temperature. The average annual rainfall (PRCPTOT) presents values between 1,500 and 2,200 mm. Remarkable contrasts of consecutive dry days (CDD) can also be seen. We found a warming signal during the examined period in much of the Xingu River basin, with an increase in the frequency of extremely warm days and nights. In the northern (south‐central) area of the basin, there is an increase (reduction) in precipitation. There is a contrasted and local distribution of detected trends in all climate extremes indices related to rainfall. CDD has displayed a considerable elevation in the south‐central area over the last decades. The study area exhibits statistically significant warming projections to the future climate. As for the precipitation projections, future changes are toward a dryer climate. We also found that dry periods may last longer in the following decades. Thus, heatwaves can be excited by subsequent days without precipitation in the basin in the future climate. The impacts of climate change on the balance of different environmental and socioeconomic sectors in this area must be wholly investigated.

Early flowering changes robusta coffee yield responses to climate stress and management

A shift towards earlier flowering is a widely noted consequence of climate change for the world's plants. However, whether early flowering changes the way in which plants respond to climate stress, and in turn plant yield, remains largely unexplored. Using 10 years of flowering time and yield observations (Total N = 5580) from 558 robusta coffee (Coffea canephora) farms across Vietnam we used structural equation modelling (SEM) to examine the drivers of flowering day anomalies and the consequent effects of this on coffee climate stress sensitivity and management responses (i.e. irrigation and fertilization). SEM allowed us to model the cascading and interacting effects of differences in flowering time, growing season length and climate stress. Warm nights were the main driver of early flowering (i.e. flowering day anomalies <0), which in turn corresponded to longer growing seasons. Early flowering was linked to greater sensitivity of yield to temperature during flowering (i.e. early in the season). In contrast, when late flowering occurred yield was most sensitive to temperature and rainfall later in the growing season, after flowering and fruit development. The positive effects of tree age and fertilizer on yield, apparent under late flowering conditions, were absent when flowering occurred early. Late flowering models predicted yields under early flowering conditions poorly (a 50 % reduction in cross-validated R2 of 0.54 to 0.27). Likewise, models based on early flowering were unable to predict yields well under late flowering conditions (a 75 % reduction in cross-validated R2, from 0.58 to 0.14). Our results show that early flowering changes the sensitivity of coffee production to climate stress and management and in turn our ability to predict yield. Our results indicate that changes in plant phenology need to be taken into account in order to more accurately assess climate risk and management impacts on plant performance and crop yield.

The changes in the frequency of warm nights in Asia and the new climatic norms

The changes in the frequency of warm nights in Asia and the new climatic norms

Assessing the Impact of a Utility Scale Solar Photovoltaic Facility on a Down Gradient Mojave Desert Ecosystem

A field study was conducted in the Mojave Desert (USA) to assess the influence of a large photo voltaic facility on heat and water transport into an adjacent creosote (Larrea tridentata) bursage (Ambrosia dumosa) plant community. Air temperature, plant physiological status, soil water in storage and precipitation were monitored over a two to four year period. A service road built 27 years before the construction of the PV facility decoupled the wash system at the site leading to a significant decline in soil moisture, canopy level NDVI values and mid-day leaf xylem water potentials (p &lt; 0.001) down gradient from the PV facility. Measurements along a 900 m gradient suggested that plants closer to where the wash was decoupled were placed under significantly greater stress during the higher environmental demand summer months. Air temperatures measured at three 10 m meteorological towers revealed warmer night time temperatures at the two towers located in close association with the solar facility (Inside Facility—IF and Adjacent to facility—AF), compared to the Down Gradient Control tower (DGC). As the warmer air was displaced down gradient, the temperature front advanced into the creosote—bursage plant community with values 5 to 8 °C warmer along an east west front just north of tower AF. Based on our research in Eldorado Valley, NV, USA, a down gradient zone of about 300 m was impacted to the greatest extent (water and heat), suggesting that the spacing between solar facilities will be a critical factor in terms of preserving high quality habitat for the desert tortoise and other species of concern. Greater research is needed to identify habitat zones acceptable for animal populations (especially the desert tortoise) within areas of high solar energy development and this should be done prior to any fragmentation of the ecosystem.

Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the arid regions of China during 1960–2016

Extreme climate events have a greater impact on natural and human systems than average climate. The spatial and temporal variation of 16 temperature and nine precipitation extremal indices was investigated using the daily maximum and minimum surface air temperature and precipitation records from 113 meteorological stations in China’s arid regions from 1960 to 2016. The warmth indices [warm spell duration (WSDI); numbers of warm nights, warm days, tropical nights (TR), and summer days (SU)] increased significantly. On the contrary, the cold indices [numbers of frost days (FD), ice days (ID), cool days, and cool nights; cold spell duration (CSDI)] decreased significantly. The number of FD decreased fastest (−3.61 days/decade), whereas the growing season length (GSL) increased fastest (3.17 days/decade). The trend was strongest for diurnal temperature range (DTR) (trend rate = −7.29, P &amp;lt; 0.001) and minimum night temperature (trend rate = 7.70, P &amp;lt; 0.001). The cold extreme temperature events increased with increasing latitude, but the warm extreme temperature events decreased. Compared with temperature indices, the precipitation indices exhibited much weaker changes and less spatial continuity. Overall, changes in precipitation extremes present wet trends, although most of the changes are insignificant. The regionally averaged total annual precipitation for wet days increased by 4.78 mm per decade, and extreme precipitation events have become more intense and frequent during the study period. The spatial variability of extreme precipitation in the region was primarily influenced by longitude. Furthermore, the climate experienced a warm-wet abrupt climate change during 1990s.

Potential changes in temperature extreme events under global warming at 1.5 °C and 2 °C over Côte d’Ivoire *

This work investigated the impact of 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming levels (GWLs) above pre-industrial levels on annual and seasonal mean changes in temperature extremes over Côte d’Ivoire and its different climatic zones. We used the multi-model Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for Africa of 25 regional climate models under the RCP8.5 scenario. The changes in temperature are quantified relative to the period 1971–2000 based on five Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices indexes namely for warm spells, hot nights, hot days, cold nights and cold days. We show that a global warming of 1.5 °C and 2 °C will lead to an increase in the frequency of warm days and warm nights and a decrease in the occurrence of cold days and cold nights across Côte d’Ivoire in all climatic zones and seasons. More than 80% of the model ensemble members project this change at both GWLs. Moreover, the assessment of differences in GWLs highlights that the difference between the 1.5 °C and 2 °C thresholds may intensify the changes over all the country, climatic zones and seasons. Therefore this 0.5 °C difference in global warming is likely to impact upon energy demand and the agricultural system throughout the country and over all of the seasons. This study provides climate information for decision makers related to sectors such as agriculture, energy in their adaptation strategies.

Changes in Extreme Temperature Events and Their Contribution to Mean Temperature Changes during Historical and Future Periods over Mainland China

Extreme climate events undoubtedly have essential impacts on terrestrial ecosystems, but the spatiotemporal patterns of extreme climate events at regional scales are unclear. In this study, based on observations and 14 CMIP6 global climate models, we analyzed the spatiotemporal changes in extreme temperature events at the mainland China scale and different basin scales in historical and future periods, and their relative importance for the changes in mean temperature (Tmean). The results show that at the mainland China scale in the historical period, extreme cold days and extreme cold nights significantly decreased, while Tmean, extreme warm days, and extreme warm nights significantly increased. However, the rates of increase in Tmean and extreme temperature events in the Continental Basin, Southwest Basin and Yellow River Basin are higher than that at the mainland China scale. The multi-model ensemble is the best model for simulating extreme temperature events in mainland China. At the mainland China scale in the future, the trends of Tmean and extreme temperature events are slow, rapid, and extremely rapid under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively. In addition, the changes in the Continental Basin and Songhua and Liaohe River Basin are larger than those at the mainland China scale. In the historical and future periods, the extreme temperature events that have a great influence on the Tmean at the Chinese mainland scale and different basin scales are all related to the minimum temperature. The findings from this study can provide references for formulating scientific and reasonable regional-scale climate change policies.

Analysis of Observed Trends in Daily Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in Different Agroecologies of Gurage Zone, Southern Ethiopia

Ethiopian climate-sensitive economy is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate-related extreme events. Thus, examining extreme daily precipitation and temperature in the context of climate change is a critical factor in advocating climate change adaptation at the local scales. Spatial changes of climate indices for extreme precipitation and temperatures were conducted for the period 1986–2016 in three different agroecologies of the Gurage zone, Southern Ethiopia. The study used the Mann–Kendall (MK) test and Sen’s slope estimator to estimate the trend and magnitude of changes in precipitation and temperature. The analysis from the observation indicates that there had been a consistent warming trend and inconsistent changes in precipitation extremes in the study agroecologies. A statistically significant increase in the numbers of warm days and nights and a statistically significant reduction in the numbers of cold days and nights were observed in most of the agroecologies. The duration of extreme trend showed inconsistency; however, a drier condition is observed in lowland agroecology. Therefore, based on the findings of this study, appropriate climate adaptation efforts are needed at the local scale.

Analysis of Extreme Temperature Variations on the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau in Southwestern China over the Past 60 Years

Analysis of variations in 12 extreme temperature indices at 68 meteorological stations on the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau (YGP) in southwestern China during 1960–2019 revealed widespread significant changes in all temperature indices. The temperature of the hottest days and coldest nights show significantly increasing trends, and the frequencies of the warm days and nights also present similar trends. The temperature of the coldest night has a significant and strong warming trend (0.38 °C/decade), whereas the frequency of frost days shows the fastest decrease (1.5 days/decade). Increases in the summer days are statistically significant, while a decreasing trend for the diurnal temperature range is not significant. Furthermore, there were significant differences in the changes of temperature indices between 1960–1989 and 1990–2019. Most parts of the YGP underwent significant warning, manifesting that the mountainous regions are relatively sensitive and vulnerable to climate change. The correlation coefficients between the temperature indices and various geographical factors (latitude, longitude, and height) reflect the complexity of regional temperature variability and indicate enhanced sensitivity of extreme temperatures to geographical factors on the YGP. It was also found that extreme temperatures generally had weaker correlations with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, North Pacific Index, Southern Oscillation Index, North Atlantic Oscillation, and East Asian Summer Monsoon Index than with the South Asian summer monsoon index, Nino4 indices and Arctic Oscillation, and there were more insignificant correlations. Regional trends of the extreme temperature indices reflect the non-uniform temperature change over the YGP, which is due to the complex interaction between atmospheric circulation patterns and local topography. The results of this study have important practical significance for mitigating the adverse effects of extreme climatic changes, in particular for the YGP with its typical karst geomorphology and fragile ecological environment.

The Private Investigator

The Private Investigator

Spatiotemporal Changes in Mean and Extreme Climate: Farmers’ Perception and Its Agricultural Implications in Awash River Basin, Ethiopia

The increase in the intensity and frequency of climate extremes threatens socioeconomic development. This study examines variability of mean and extreme climate, farmers’ perception of the changes, and impacts in the Awash River Basin. Daily rainfall and temperature data were used to analyze 23 extreme climate indices. The Mann–Kendall test was used to assess the magnitude and significance of the changes. Results show an increase in minimum (0.019–0.055 °C/year) and maximum temperatures (0.049–0.09 °C/year), while total rainfall is on a downward trend (from −3.84 mm/year to −10.26 mm/year). Warm extreme temperature indicators, including warmest day (TXx), warmest night (TNx), warm day (TX90p), warm night (TN90p), and warm spell duration indicator (WSDI), show a significant increasing trend (p &lt; 0.05). Nevertheless, except the tepid–cool humid agroecology zone, cold extreme temperature indicators in cool days (TN10p), cool nights (TX10p), and cold spell duration (CSDI) are declining. Extreme precipitation indices, including maximum 1-day precipitation amount (RX1day), count of days when precipitation ≥10 mm (R10 mm), maximum 5-day precipitation amount (RX5day), count of days when precipitation ≥20 mm (R20mm), very wet days (R95p), extreme wet days (R99p), and total precipitation (PRCPTOT), show a decreasing trend. The perception of most farmers’ on climate change and climate extremes agreed with climate records. The major impacts perceived and asserted over all agroecologies are food price inflation, crop productivity decline, crop pests and diseases spread, livestock disease increase, and the emergence of pests and weeds. The increasing trend in extreme warm temperatures, decreasing trend in the cold extreme, and declining trend in precipitation indicators affected agricultural productivity and farmers whose livelihood depends on rainfed agriculture. This agroecology-specific study provides critical information to policymakers, decision makers, and farmers about the potential impacts of climate change and extreme events, leading to the development of agroecology-based adaptation measures.

Analyses of Spatial Distribution and Temporal Trends of Temperature and Its Extremes over Nigeria using Climate Indices

Climate change and its associated extreme climate and extreme events are threat to man and his environment. Over the years, climatic parameters have been used as climate change indicators to study climate change. In order to access extreme climate due to climate change in Nigeria, this paper attempt to evaluate spatial distribution and temporal trends of temperature and its extremes over Nigeria for 35 years (1979 - 2013). Daily temperature data used were obtained from the Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NIMET), Lagos. The data was subjected to quality checked and homogenization. Climate extreme indices developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) was adopted in this study. The data were analysed employing Sen’s slope estimator and Mann-Kendall test. Results revealed that spatial distribution of temperature and its extremes over Nigeria varied across the country, increasing/decreasing mostly towards the northern or the coastal regions. Significant increase was observed at p &lt; 0.05 in the temporal trends of averages of yearly maximum and minimum temperature and hot temperature indices in all the regions in line with the global warming trend. The increase in warm days and warm nights doubled the rate at which cold days and cold nights decreased in most of the study areas. The annual and decadal changes in temperature and its extremes as well as the period under investigation (35 years) were determined. Our findings depict that the country is trending towards a drier and warmer climate which are clear evidence of climate change. The results further suggest that the Atlantic Ocean and the Sahara Desert which control the atmospheric condition of the country may be promoter of the observed extreme events caused by climate change in Nigeria. This study discussed contemporary issues in our society which are useful to the general populace, researchers, and policy makers among others.&#x0D; HIGHLIGHTS&#x0D; &#x0D; Spatial distribution of temperature and its extremes over Nigeria varied across the country from one region to another&#x0D; Maximum and minimum temperature and hot temperature indices increased significantly (p &lt; 0.05) in all the regions in line with the global warming trend&#x0D; The increase in warm days/nights doubled the rate at which cold days/cold nights decreased in most of the regions&#x0D; Our findings suggest that Atlantic Ocean and Sahara Desert which control the atmospheric conditions of Nigeria may promote extreme events caused by climate change in Nigeria&#x0D; &#x0D; GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT

Subseasonal to Annual Long-Term Trends in Climate Extremes Over East Asia, 1981–2021

This study examines the up-to-date observed trends of subseasonal to annual range climate extremes over the East Asia region using the high-resolution global unified gauge-based analysis of the NOAA Climate Prediction Center for 1981–2021. The spatial extent of extreme events is identified using the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI)-based modified climate extreme index (EmCEI) with five subcomponents (maximum temperature, minimum temperature. total rainfall, heavy rainfall, and wet and dry days). By combining the spatiotemporal fields into a simple index, trends in climate extremes are systematically obtained in various time ranges. Annual and semi-annual long-term trends in East Asia showed a statistically significant increase in the percentage of area affected by the upper-extreme climate (warm days, warm nights, wet extreme) and concurrently by the decrease of lower-extreme climate (cool days, cool nights, dry extreme). As the time range becomes higher, the tendency is consistent but extremeness depends on seasons and calendar months. The total EmCEI shows an increasing trend greater in the warm (summer) season than in the cold (winter) season. The temperature extreme components (C1 and C2) are dominated in spring and summer. In the subseasonal months, March has the highest trend among the calendar months both in C1 and C2. The increasing trend is consistently distinct in the 2010s for all time ranges and all components. The long-term trend in winter exhibits distinctive features of the smallest increase than in other seasons and months caused by robust interannual to multidecadal variability in the 1990s–2000s. The area affected by heavy rainfall is mainly dominated in summer while the total rainfall and wet day extreme extend in summer and fall, respectively. The EmCEI suggests that the change in the spatial extent of climate extremes is mainly caused by a shift in temperature and rainfall distributions toward warm and wet extremes over East Asia.

Analysis of Climate Change Indices in Musanze District, Rwanda

This study used daily rainfall, minimum temperature, and maximum temperature data from the Rwanda Meteorology Agency (Meteo Rwanda) for the years 1983 - 2016 to analyze climate change indices in the Musanze district of Rwanda. Rainfall and temperature extreme indices were determined using the methodology provided by Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Monitoring Indices (ETCCDMI). Climate Data Tool (CDT), which is R-based package developed by International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) was used to compute the indices. Sen's slope estimator and the modified Mann-Kendall (m-MK) test were both applied to identify trends and determine the degree of change. The Monthly Temperature (TXx, TXn, TNx, and TNn) indices generally showed a warming in the eastern and a cooling in the western parts of the district, according to the trend results; however, the Minimum tail of temperature indices showed a slightly reduced cooling which is a sign of warm nights and hot days in highland areas of volcanic region. For the same period, the district's eastern regions have higher precipitation intensity and wetness, which gradually declines toward the middle and western regions. In addition, a considerable upward trend in the annual total precipitation for days above the 95th percentile (very wet days) and the annual count for precipitation equal or greater than 20 mm (very heavy precipitation days). Additionally, temperature indices showed a large rise in the minimum and maximum values of daily minimum temperatures, annual minimum and maximum values of daily maximum temperatures, and the percentage of days with daily maximum temperatures above the 90th percentile (warm days). In view of these evolving trends in weather and climate patterns, the study recommends local farmers and other stakeholders involved in socioeconomic activities in the district to implement the necessary climate change mitigation and adaptation measures.

Climate extremes and their impacts on agriculture across the Eastern Corn Belt Region of the U.S.

The Eastern Corn Belt Region (ECBR) is an important agricultural sector for the U.S. This study analyzes the climate extremes over the contemporary (1980–2018) and future (2036–2099) periods over the ECBR. We evaluated the performance of 32 downscaled models from the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to simulate extreme temperature and precipitation indices. The LOCA downscaled models were evaluated for the recent past against the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)-supported gridded observational dataset DAYMET. Results reveal key trends throughout the region that are consistent with previous studies, including significant increases in extreme minimum temperatures, reduction of cold nights, increase of warm nights, and decreases in diurnal temperature ranges. Much of the region demonstrates extreme warming trends in the coldest night of the year (more than 5 °C) and an increase in the heaviest precipitation events over 1980–2018. An optimal model ensemble (OME) was constructed using a Kling-Gupta Efficiency and Bhattacharyya coefficient evaluation to construct a comprehensive ranking procedure. Having outperformed a standard multi-model ensemble approach, the OME was used to evaluate the future changes of extreme climate indices under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Though the OME showed consistently strong warming throughout the ECBR, variability among the optimal models and across watersheds is quite significant, especially for precipitation indices. Thus, constraining the uncertainty in future climate models, specifically as it relates to agriculture decisions that support climate-resilience, remains a challenge.

Potential future malaria transmission in Odisha due to climate change

Future projections of malaria transmission is made for Odisha, a highly endemic region of India, through numerical simulations using the VECTRI dynamical model. The model is forced with bias-corrected temperature and rainfall from a global climate model (CCSM4) for the baseline period 1975–2005 and for the projection periods 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s under RCP8.5 emission scenario. The temperature, rainfall, mosquito density and entomological inoculation rate (EIR), generated from the VECTRI model are evaluated with the observation and analyzed further to estimate the future malaria transmission over Odisha on a spatio-temporal scale owing to climate change. Our results reveal that the malaria transmission in Odisha as a whole during summer and winter monsoon seasons may decrease in future due to the climate change except in few districts with the high elevations and dense forest regions such as Kandhamal, Koraput, Raygada and Mayurbhanj districts where an increase in malaria transmission is found. Compared to the baseline period, mosquito density shows decrease in most districts of the south, southwest, central, north and northwest regions of Odisha in 2030s, 2050s and 2080s. An overall decrease in malaria transmission of 20–40% (reduction in EIR) is seen during the monsoon season (June-Sept) over Odisha with the increased surface temperature of 3.5–4 °C and with the increased rainfall of 20–35% by the end of the century with respect to the baseline period. Furthermore, malaria transmission is likely to reduce in future over most of the Odisha regions with the increase in future warm and cold nights temperatures.