Potential future malaria transmission in Odisha due to climate change

Abstract

Future projections of malaria transmission is made for Odisha, a highly endemic region of India, through numerical simulations using the VECTRI dynamical model. The model is forced with bias-corrected temperature and rainfall from a global climate model (CCSM4) for the baseline period 1975–2005 and for the projection periods 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s under RCP8.5 emission scenario. The temperature, rainfall, mosquito density and entomological inoculation rate (EIR), generated from the VECTRI model are evaluated with the observation and analyzed further to estimate the future malaria transmission over Odisha on a spatio-temporal scale owing to climate change. Our results reveal that the malaria transmission in Odisha as a whole during summer and winter monsoon seasons may decrease in future due to the climate change except in few districts with the high elevations and dense forest regions such as Kandhamal, Koraput, Raygada and Mayurbhanj districts where an increase in malaria transmission is found. Compared to the baseline period, mosquito density shows decrease in most districts of the south, southwest, central, north and northwest regions of Odisha in 2030s, 2050s and 2080s. An overall decrease in malaria transmission of 20–40% (reduction in EIR) is seen during the monsoon season (June-Sept) over Odisha with the increased surface temperature of 3.5–4 °C and with the increased rainfall of 20–35% by the end of the century with respect to the baseline period. Furthermore, malaria transmission is likely to reduce in future over most of the Odisha regions with the increase in future warm and cold nights temperatures.