Climate Warming Scenarios Research Articles

Climate Projection of Tropical Cyclone Lifetime in the Western North Pacific Basin

Abstract In this study, the potential changes in tropical cyclone (TC) lifetime in the western North Pacific basin are examined for different future climates. Using homogeneous 9-km-resolution dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, we show that TC-averaged lifetime displays insignificant change under both low and high greenhouse gas concentration scenarios. However, more noticeable changes in the tails of TC lifetime statistics are captured in our downscaling simulations, with more frequent long-lived TCs (lifetime of 8–11 days) and less short-lived TCs (lifetime of 3–5 days). Unlike present-day simulations, it is found that the correlation between TC lifetime and the Niño index is relatively weak and insignificant in all future downscaling simulations, thus offering little explanation for these changes in TC lifetime statistics based on El Niño–Southern Oscillation. More detailed analyses of TC track distribution in the western North Pacific basin reveal, nevertheless, a noticeable shift of TC track patterns toward the end of the twenty-first century. Such a change in TC track climatology results in an overall longer duration of TCs over the open ocean, which is consistent across future scenarios and periods examined in this study. This shift in the TC track pattern is ultimately linked to changes in the western North Pacific subtropical high, which retreats to the south during July and to the east during August–September. The results obtained in this study provide new insights into how large-scale circulations can affect TC lifetime in the western North Pacific basin in warmer climates. Significance Statement Using high-resolution dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model under low- and high-emission scenarios, this study shows that the basin-averaged tropical cyclone (TC) lifetime in the western North Pacific (WNP) basin has no noticeable change under both warmer climate scenarios, despite an overall increase in TC maximum intensity. However, the tails of the TC lifetime distribution display significant changes, with more long-lived (6–20 days) TCs but less short-lived (3–5 days) TCs in the future. These changes in TC lifetime statistics are caused by the shift of the North Pacific subtropical high, which alters large-scale steering flows and TC track patterns. These results help explain why previous studies on TC lifetime projections have been inconclusive in the WNP basin and provide new insights into how large-scale circulations can modulate TC lifetime in a warmer climate.

Habitat changes of a small endemic euryhaline fish species in the northern margin of the South China Sea under the background of global warming

Hainan medaka (Oryzias curvinotus) is a small euryhaline fish species native to the northern margin of the South China Sea. Our long-term field observations indicate a concerning decline in its wild resources. Climate change, an uncontrollable factor, has altered the species’ distribution pattern. In this study, we simulated the shifts in the species range of O. curvinotus during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), current, and the next one hundred year, and analyzed its habitat attributes. The results demonstrate that bio2 (mean diurnal range of temperature) is a crucial factor in shaping the species range of O. curvinotus. The simulation results reveal that the current habitats are located in the coastal areas of northern Vietnam, the northeastern Hainan Province, the coastal areas of Guangdong Province and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, and a few areas in Taiwan Province of China, covering a total area of 17.82×104 km2. Highly suitable habitats are mainly concentrated in the coastal areas of Hai Phong, Nam Dinh, and Thanh Hoa in northern Vietnam, the central part of Leizhou Peninsula, and the west coast of the Pearl River Estuary. For the tropical species Hainan medaka, the impact of the LGM was relatively minor, and there were extensive suitable habitats during historical times, including three refugia. Currently, only Refugium 2 near Guanghai Town, Taishan County, Jiangmen City, Guangdong Province in China remains, while the other two refugia have submerged below sea level. Future climate warming under different carbon emission levels is projected to cause a short-term expansion, followed by a relief in expansion. By 2100, the potential habitat area of O. curvinotus is slightly larger than the current scenario. It is noteworthy that under future climate warming scenarios, the highly suitable habitats will not migrate northward but will expand near the 21°N latitude. Overall, Hainan medaka is not expected to be threatened in the future. Our study provides long-term dynamic distribution data, which provides a theoretical basis for the long-term development and conservation management of Hainan medaka.

The Effect of Pseudo‐Global Warming on the Weather‐Climate System of Africa in a Convection‐Permitting Model

AbstractThe African easterly jet (AEJ) and the West African Monsoon (WAM) can largely modulate high‐impact weather over Africa and the tropical Atlantic. How these features will change with a warming climate is just starting to be addressed due to global climate model limitations in resolving convection. We employ a novel regional setup for an atmospheric convection‐permitting model alongside the pseudo‐global warming (PGW) approach to address climate change impacts on the weather‐climate system of Africa during a short period of high‐impact weather. Our findings indicate that the AEJ and WAM may intensify in a future warming climate scenario. Precipitation is shown to increase over Guinea Highlands and Cameroon Mountains and shift southward due to a latitudinal expansion and increase of deep convection closer to the equator. This has relevant ramifications for the livelihood of communities that depend on water‐fed crops in tropical Africa.

Engineering source-sink relations by prime editing confers heat-stress resilience in tomato and rice.

A 2°C climate-warming scenario is expected to further exacerbate average crop losses by 3%-13%, yet few heat-tolerant staple-crop varieties are available toward meeting future food demands. Here, we develop high-efficiency prime-editing tools to precisely knockin a 10-bp heat-shock element (HSE) into promoters of cell-wall-invertase genes (CWINs) in elite rice and tomato cultivars. HSE insertion endows CWINs with heat-responsive upregulation in both controlled and field environments to enhance carbon partitioning to grain and fruits, resulting in per-plot yield increases of 25% in rice cultivar Zhonghua11 and 33% in tomato cultivar Ailsa Craig over heat-stressed controls, without fruit quality penalties. Up to 41% of heat-induced grain losses were rescued in rice. Beyond a prime-editing system for tweaking gene expression by efficiently delivering bespoke changes into crop genomes, we demonstrate broad and robust utility for targeted knockin of cis-regulatory elements to optimize source-sink relations and boost crop climate resilience.

Thermal Behavior of a Historic Building Housing Books Across Past and Future Climate Scenarios

Climate change poses significant challenges for the renovation of historic buildings, requiring a careful balance between preservation and energy efficiency, particularly considering the forecasted rise in temperatures. This study focuses on a medieval building undergoing renovation, examining thermal behaviors based on future climate settings, with particular attention to the rooms housing a book collection. Books require controlled microclimatic conditions that must be ensured for their preservation; hence, the energy use for air conditioning control must be considered during the renovation planning phase. Through on-site monitoring of the thermophysical properties of the building envelope and indoor microclimate, along with energy model software simulations, both historic climate and global warming scenarios were evaluated for their potential impact on thermal behavior and consequently on energy consumption. This study aims at contributing to the long-term sustainability and resilience of historic buildings, as well as proposing best practices for planning interventions involving sensitive cultural heritage materials, considering the effects of climate change in the renovation process. The results show strategies to address the climatic changes through a methodology optimizing renovation interventions. The sizing of air conditioning systems coupled with a less stringent microclimate control mitigates energy requirements, in line with the sustainable management approach.

Sensitivity of the future evolution of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin ice sheet to grounding-line melt parameterizations

Abstract. Projections of Antarctic Ice Sheet mass loss and therefore global sea level rise are hugely uncertain, partly due to how mass loss of the ice sheet occurs at the grounding line. The Wilkes Subglacial Basin (WSB), a vast region of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, is thought to be particularly vulnerable to deglaciation under future climate warming scenarios. However, future projections of ice loss, driven by grounding-line migration, are known to be sensitive to the parameterization of ocean-induced basal melt of the floating ice shelves and, specifically, to the adjacent grounding line – termed grounding-line melt parameterizations (GLMPs). This study investigates future ice sheet dynamics in the WSB with respect to four GLMPs under both the upper and lower bounds of climate warming scenarios from the present to 2500, with different model resolutions, ice shelf melt parameterizations (ISMPs) and choices of sliding relationships. The variation in these GLMPs determines the distribution and the amount of melt applied in the finite-element assembly procedure on partially grounded elements (i.e. elements containing the grounding line). Our findings indicate that the GLMPs significantly affect both the trigger timings of tipping points and the overall magnitude of ice mass loss. We conclude that applying full melting to the partially grounded elements, which causes melting on the grounded side of the grounding line, should be avoided under all circumstances due to its poor numerical convergence and substantial overestimation of ice mass loss. We recommend preferring options that depend on the specific model context, by either (1) not applying any melt immediately adjacent to the grounding line or (2) employing a sub-element parameterization.

The spatiotemporal patterns of the beet webworm (Lepidoptera: Crambidae) in China and possible dynamics under future climate scenarios.

The beet webworm (BWW), Loxostege sticticalis (L.), is a notorious migratory agriculture pest of crops and fodder plants, inducing sudden outbreaks and huge losses of food and forage production. Quantifying its spatiotemporal patterns and possible dynamics under future climate scenarios may have significant implications for management policies and practices against this destructive agriculture pest. In this paper, a database containing nearly 7,000 occurrence records for the spatiotemporal distribution of BWW in China was established and its possible dynamics under future climate scenarios predicted using Maxent. We found that BWW could affect a vast geographic range of Northern China, about one third of the country's land area. The beet webworm overwintered in most of its distribution regions. Maxent model found a northward movement and distribution reduction for BWW in China under future climate scenarios. The occurrence and overwintering regions will move northward about 0.3°N-0.9°N under warming climate scenarios, and about 40%-70% of the suitable habitat and overwintering habitat will disappear by 2100. Most of the northward movement and suitable area reduction likely will happen in 2 decades. Given the vast affected area, the abrupt outbreaks, the diverse host plants, the sensitivity to climate change, as well as their long-distance migration capacity, global scale research, and monitoring the population dynamics of BWW are essential for developing effective management strategies and mitigating its impact on agriculture and ecosystems.

Greening‐Induced Biophysical Impacts Lead to Earlier Spring and Autumn Phenology in Temperate and Boreal Forests

AbstractTree phenology, the timing of periodic biological events in trees, is highly sensitive to climate change. Previous studies have indicated that forest greening can impact the local climate by modifying the seasonal surface energy budget. However, the understanding of tree phenological responses to forest greening at large spatial scales remains limited. Utilizing satellite‐derived phenological and leaf area index data spanning from 2001 to 2021, herein we show that forest greening led to earlier spring and autumn phenology in both temperate and boreal forests. Our findings demonstrated that forest greening during winter and spring contributed to a reduction in surface albedo, resulting in biophysical warming and consequently advancing spring leaf phenology. Conversely, forest greening in summer and autumn induced biophysical cooling through increased evapotranspiration, leading to an earlier onset of autumn leaf phenology. Our findings highlight the significant impact of forest greening‐induced local seasonal climate changes on shaping tree phenology in temperate and boreal forests. It is crucial to consider these greening‐induced alterations in microclimate conditions when modeling changes in tree phenology under future climate warming scenarios.

Eutrophication promotes resource use efficiency and toxin production of Microcystis in a future climate warming scenario

Addressing the risks of cyanobacterial blooms and toxin production under ongoing and accelerating eutrophication and climate warming is crucial for both water ecosystem services and human health. Therefore, we here explored the interactive effects of eutrophication and warming on freshwater ecosystems, focusing on Microcystis and its cyanotoxin production. We employed a large-scale mesocosm system simulating future climate warming scenarios in concert with varying degrees of nutrient enrichment. We explored the full range of identified cyanobacterial toxins and cyanotoxin-producing genes under different experimental conditions and assessed the effects of both eutrophication and warming on both phytoplankton community structure (algal densities, community stability) and function (resource use efficiency, RUE). We show here that eutrophication increases the RUE of Microcystis and promotes an increase in toxin-producing genes, leading to a substantial increase in the dominance of Microcystis. This increase correlates with enhanced cyanotoxin production, a trend exacerbated under the influence of future climate warming, suggesting interactions between eutrophication and climate warming on Microcystis ecology and cyanotoxin dynamics. Hence, heatwaves and eutrophication lead the phytoplankton community to be dominated by a minority of algal species with higher toxic capacity. In a broader context, our study underscores the urgent need for holistic management strategies, addressing both nutrient control and climate mitigation, to effectively manage the escalating ecological risks associated with cyanobacterial dominance and toxin production.

Integrating remotely sensed imagery in a forest gap model to study North American boreal forests in a changing world

Abstract Boreal forests of Alaska and Western Canada are experiencing rapid climate change characterized by higher temperatures, more extreme droughts, and changing disturbance regimes, resulting in forest mortality and composition changes. Mechanistic models are increasingly important for predicting future forest trends as the region experiences novel environmental change. Previously, many process-based models have generated starting conditions by ‘spinning up’ to equilibrium. However, setting appropriate initial conditions remains a persistent challenge in using mechanistic forest models, where stochastic events and latent parameters governing tree establishment have long-lasting impacts on simulation outcomes. Recent advances in remote sensing analysis provide information that can help address this issue. We updated an individual-based gap model, the University of Virginia Forest Model Enhanced (UVAFME), to include initial conditions derived from aerial and satellite imagery at two locations. Following these updates, material legacies (e.g., trees, seed banks, soil organic layer) allowed new forest types to persist in UVAFME simulations, landscape-level forest heterogeneity increased, and forest-wide biomass estimates increased. At both study sites, initialization from remotely sensed data had a strong impact on forest cover and volume. Climate change impacts were simulated decades earlier than when the model was ‘spun up'. In Alaska’s Tanana Valley State Forest, warmer climate scenarios drove deciduous expansion, increased drought stress, and resulted in a 28% decrease in overall biomass by 2100 between historical and high emissions climate scenarios. At a lowland site in Northern British Columbia, lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) remained dominant and became more productive with exogenous climate forcing as temperature, nutrient, and flooding limitations decreased. These case studies demonstrate a new framework for forest modeling and emphasize the advantages of integrating remotely sensed data with mechanistic models, thereby laying groundwork for future research that explores near-term impacts of non-stationary ecological change.

Assessing Building Energy Savings and the Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Potential of Green Roofs in Shanghai Using a GIS-Based Approach

Climate change can significantly affect building energy use and associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in urban areas, as fossil fuels remain a significant energy source. Green roofs can offer multiple benefits to the urban environment, but their effects on GHG mitigation have not been fully investigated, especially under climate change. This study assessed green roofs’ contribution to GHG mitigation by saving building energy and absorbing CO2 under the present (2017–2019) and future (2049–2051) climate scenarios (SSP2-45 and SSP5-85) in Shanghai, China, at the city and township scale. A Geographic Information System (GIS)-based spatial statistical method was developed based on climate change modeling and building energy simulation. The results suggested that installing green roofs can effectively save building energy regardless of building type, yet the amount of savings can vary depending on the weather conditions within the city. The contribution analysis indicated that most saved building energy was attributed to the Heating, Ventilation, and Cooling (HVAC) system, with more energy saved under warmer climate scenarios in the future, particularly during the summer months. More energy was saved from shopping malls on an annual and monthly scale, regardless of the climate scenarios and weather zones. Finally, a case study indicated installing green roofs on all five types of buildings (office, hotel, hospital, shopping mall, apartment) of less than 50 m in height can reduce 8.28% of the CO2 emitted during the building operation stage in the entire city under the present climate scenario. The annual CO2 reduction varied with the location of townships, ranging from 2.18% to 13.78%, depending on the composition of building types and local weather conditions in Shanghai. This study offered policymakers a reference on the environmental benefits and investment values of installing green roofs in large cities.

Development of Polar Lows in Future Climate Scenarios over the Barents Sea

Abstract Polar lows (PLs) are intense mesoscale cyclones that form over polar oceans during colder months. Characterized by high wind speeds and heavy precipitation, they profoundly impact coastal communities, shipping, and offshore activities. Amid the substantial environmental changes in polar regions due to global warming, PLs are expected to undergo noteworthy transformations. In this study, we investigate the response of PL development in the Barents Sea to climate warming based on two representative PLs. Sensitivity experiments were conducted including the PLs in the present climate and the PLs in a pseudo–global warming scenario projected by the late twenty-first century for Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2-4.5 and SSP 3-7.0 scenarios from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). In both warming climate scenarios, there is an anticipated decrease in PL intensity, in terms of the maximum surface wind speed and minimum sea level pressure. Despite the foreseen increase in latent heat release in the future climate, contributing to the enhancement of PL intensity, other primary factors such as decreased baroclinic instability, heightened atmospheric static stability, and reduced overall surface heat fluxes play pivotal roles in the overall decrease in PL intensity in the Barents Sea under warming conditions. The augmentation of surface latent heat flux, however, results in increased precipitation associated with PLs by enhancing the latent heat release. Furthermore, the regional steering flow shifts in the warming climate can influence the trajectory of PLs during their development. Significance Statement Global warming is anticipated to impact cyclone systems worldwide. Polar lows (PLs), intense mesocyclones in polar regions with potential socioeconomic and human life implications, pose uncertainties regarding intensity changes in a warming climate. In this study, we aimed to better understand how PLs over the Barents Sea will respond to the environmental changes in future climate conditions [Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2-4.5 and SSP 3-7.0] by the end of the twenty-first century. Our results find that the intensity of PLs is expected to decrease in the future while there is an expected increase in precipitation associated with PLs in the warming climate. These findings aim to contribute valuable insights for disaster management strategies in the face of evolving climate scenarios.

Carbon and nitrogen addition-derived enzyme activities in topsoil but nitrogen availability in subsoil controls the response of soil organic carbon decomposition to warming

Subsoil stores the majority of soil organic carbon (SOC), and plays a vital role in the global carbon cycle in terrestrial ecosystems and in regulating climate change. Response of SOC decomposition to temperature warming (TR) is a crucial parameter to predict SOC dynamics under global warming. However, it remains unknown how TR varies across the whole soil profile and responds to exogenous C and N inputs. To assess this, we designed a novel incubation system to measure SOC-derived CO2 efflux across the whole soil column (i.e., 60 cm length), allowing manual addition of 13C-labeled glucose and ammonium nitrate, and incubated it under ambient or warmed temperatures (+4 °C). We found that C addition significantly increased TR in 0–20 cm, 20–40 cm and 40–60 cm by 64.3 %, 68.1 % and 57.2 %, respectively. However, the combined addition of C and N decreased TR by 11.1 % - 15.3 % compared to without anything addition (CK) in the whole soil profile. The effect of N on TR ranged from −22.8 % to −40.4 % in the whole soil profile, and was significantly lower in topsoil than in subsoil. Furthermore, sole N addition significantly promoted TR compared to CK by 79.0 % and 94.7 % in 20–40 cm and 40–60 cm subsoil, only 9.8 % in 0–20 cm topsoil. These results together suggested that TR is sensitive to increasing C availability in the whole soil profile and increasing N availability in 20–60 cm subsoil. Random forest model indicated that soil enzyme activities (explained 21.3 % of the variance) and DOC (explained 11.1 % of the variance) dominantly governed TR in topsoil, but N availability displayed a predominant control of TR in subsoil. Overall, our results suggested that increased C and N availability under climate warming scenarios could further increase the risk of carbon loss especially in subsoil with substrate deficiency, but labile C (e.g., root exudation) input under climate warming and N enrichment could reduce SOC decomposition and benefit for C sequestration by decreasing TR.

Optimistic growth of marginal region plantations under climate warming: Assessing divergent drought resilience.

Given the context of significant global warming and the intensification of extreme climate events in the last century, large-scale reforestation and afforestation have been recognized as effective strategies to mitigate the climate crisis. Since the 1970s, China has launched several afforestation programs aimed at regional ecological protection, playing an important role in reaching carbon neutrality by 2060. This study provided a detailed analysis of the growth suitability of the main planted conifers (Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica and Pinus tabulaeformis) and broadleaves (Populus spp., Robinia pseudoacacia) in the semi-arid northern China. We compared the radial growth trends of plantations and their responses to extreme droughts from 1980 to 2018. Growth of most plantations has significantly increased over time, but broadleaves showed recent growth reductions in the past decade, which may be related to tree age and reduced soil moisture. Nevertheless, under warmer climate scenarios, the growth of plantations is forecasted to continue increasing. Broadleaves showed a better post-drought recovery, probably linked to their anisohydric behavior, than conifers, which presented a better resistance to drought. Growth of conifers depended more on warmer temperature and better precipitation conditions during the growing season, whereas broadleaves mainly reacted to warm temperature. Additionally, pre-drought growth levels weakened resilience components, while post-drought precipitation compensated for drought-induced growth deficit. Growth and resilience were negatively related to tree age, while higher stand density reduced growth. This assessment and projections of growth and drought resilience indicate the sustainability of most plantations in semi-arid regions, but future warmer and drier conditions may lead to an uncertain future regarding forest health and reduce their carbon sink potential.

Quantitative Analysis of Vegetation Dynamics and Driving Factors in the Shendong Mining Area under the Background of Coal Mining

Elucidating the response mechanism of vegetation change trends is of great value for environmental resource management, especially in coal mining areas where climate fluctuations and human activities are intense. Taking the Shendong mining area as an example, based on the Google Earth Engine cloud platform, this study used the kernel Normalized Vegetation Index (kNDVI) to study the spatiotemporal change characteristics of vegetation cover during 1994–2022. Then, it carried out an attribution analysis through the partial derivative analysis method to explore the driving mechanism behind vegetation greening. The results showed that (1) the growth rate of vegetation cover change from 1994 to 2022 was 0.0052/a. The area with an upward trend of kNDVI accounted for 94.11% of the total area of the study area. The greening effect was obvious, and the kNDVI change would continue to rise. (2) Under the scenario of regional climate warming and humidifying, kNDVI responds slightly differently to different climatic factors, and kNDVI is positively correlated with temperature and precipitation in 85.20% of the mining area. The average contribution of precipitation, temperature, and human activities to kNDVI change in the Shendong mining area were 0.00094/a, 0.00066/a, and 0.0036/a, respectively. The relative contribution rates of human activities and climate change were 69.23% and 30.77%, respectively. Thus, human activities are the main driving factor for the changing of vegetation cover in this mining area, and climate change is the secondary driving factor. (3) The dynamic change in land use presents an increase in forest area under the ecological restoration project. The results of this study can provide a scientific basis for the future ecological construction of the Shendong mining area and help in the realization of regional green sustainable development goals.

Global needs for nitrogen fertilizer to improve wheat yield under climate change.

Increasing global food demand will require more food production1 without further exceeding the planetary boundaries2 while simultaneously adapting to climate change3. We used an ensemble of wheat simulation models with improved sink and source traits from the highest-yielding wheat genotypes4 to quantify potential yield gains and associated nitrogen requirements. This was explored for current and climate change scenarios across representative sites of major world wheat producing regions. The improved sink and source traits increased yield by 16% with current nitrogen fertilizer applications under both current climate and mid-century climate change scenarios. To achieve the full yield potential-a 52% increase in global average yield under a mid-century high warming climate scenario (RCP8.5), fertilizer use would need to increase fourfold over current use, which would unavoidably lead to higher environmental impacts from wheat production. Our results show the need to improve soil nitrogen availability and nitrogen use efficiency, along with yield potential.

Climate refugia along Lake Superior’s shores: disjunct arctic–alpine plants rely on cool shoreline temperatures but are restricted to highly exposed habitat under climate warming

Abstract Climate refugia can serve as a remnant habitat or stepping stones for species dispersal under climate warming. The largest freshwater lake by surface area, Lake Superior, USA and Canada, serves as a model system for understanding cooling-mediated local refugia, as its cool water temperatures and wave action have maintained shoreline habitats suitable for southern disjunct populations of arctic–alpine plants since deglaciation. Here, we seek to explain spatial patterns and environmental drivers of arctic–alpine plant refugia along Lake Superior’s shores, and assess future risk to refugia under moderate (+3.5 °C) and warmest (+5.7 °C) climate warming scenarios. First, we examined how the interactive effects of summer surface water temperatures and wind affected onshore temperatures, resulting in areas of cooler refugia. Second, we developed an ecological niche model for the presence of disjunct arctic–alpine refugia (pooling 1253 occurrences from 58 species) along the lake’s shoreline. Third, we fit species distribution models for 20 of the most common arctic–alpine disjunct species and predicted presence to identify refugia hotspots. Finally, we used the two climate warming scenarios to predict changes in the presence of refugia and disjunct hotspots. Bedrock type, elevation above water, inland distance, July land surface temperature from MODIS/Terra satellite and near-shore depth of water were the best predictors of disjunct occurrences. Overall, we predicted 2236 km of the shoreline (51%) as disjunct refugia habitat for at least one species under current conditions, but this was reduced to 20% and 7% with moderate (894 km) and warmest (313 km) climate change projections.

Tree Rings Elucidate Differential Drought Responses in Stands of Three Mexican Pines

Knowledge regarding the growth of trees is essential to understanding their response to predicted warmer and drier climate scenarios. We used the annual rings of three Mexican pines (Pinus montezumae Lamb., Pinus oocarpa Schiede ex Schltdl., and Pinus monophylla Torr. & Frém) to explore their drought responses. Correlation analyses showed that hydroclimatic factors differentially impact tree species in terms of the intensity and temporality. The negative influence of the maximum temperature and positive effect of the precipitation on the growth indices were notable, with P. montezumae being the most responsive species, followed by P. oocarpa and P. monophylla. The climate–growth relationships were specific and driven by the differential hydrothermal conditions across the study areas. SPEI analyses indicated that P. monophylla is better able to tolerate drought than P. montezumae or P. oocarpa, especially in recent years. The lower resilience of P. montezumae and P. oocarpa could predispose them to a higher mortality risk if warming and drying rates increase. Our findings strengthen the understanding of the responses of tree growth to seasonal drought, which is critical considering the biogeographic shifts that will potentially be experienced by these forests in the future. This knowledge improves the understanding of young Mexican stands and could contribute to the design of management strategies in the face of predicted climatic variations.

Climate Impact on Dissolved Organic Carbon Composition in a North‐Temperate Peatland and Recipient Surface Water

AbstractClimate may regulate dissolved organic carbon (DOC) composition across the peat‐water interface, but experimental evidence is scarce. We manipulated the climate in peatland and recipient surface water mesocosms to reflect four different climate warming scenarios. In half of the mesocosms, the water level was managed to avoid drought, after which responses were recorded during two annual cycles. It was hypothesized that warming and drought increase the aromaticity and humic‐like fluorescence character of DOC, and that this change propagate to recipient waters. Pore water DOC concentrations increased with temperature and peaked in hydrologically unmanaged mesocosms. Aromaticity increased as expected after drought in the warmest scenario (+3.2°C), but the overall evidence for hypothesized changes in DOC aromaticity and fluorescence composition (%) was limited. In managed warming scenarios, one aromatic humic component expectedly increased together with microbially derived humic fluorescence, whereas two other humic‐like components decreased. In the unmanaged mesocosms which were exposed to drought, water level exerted an overriding control of humic DOC; for example, as the microbially derived humic fluorescence diminished after drought in all climate scenarios. In the surface water recipients, warming had nearly no impact on humic‐like fluorescence, but there were decreases in protein‐like fluorescence. Overall, this experiment revealed no conclusive support for the hypothesized aromatization and humification of peatland‐derived DOC in response to drought or warming. Nonetheless, both factors increase the quantity of DOC in peatland pore waters and affect composition in complex ways, calling for further investigation of chemical and functional traits of peatland DOC in a changing environment.

The 1980 Aparejo Glacier catastrophic detachment: new insights and current status

The catastrophic detachment of Aparejo Glacier (one of the three known cases in the Andes) took place on 1 March 1980 and resulted in the removal of an ice volume initially estimated to be 7.2 Mm3, which originally was 1.0 km long and covered an area of 0.2 km2. The event caused the sudden mobilization of the sliding mass 3.7 km down valley at an estimated speed of 110 km/h, causing remarkable geomorphological changes, including the obliteration of most of the glacier. 40 years after the event, we analyze new evidence: 3 ground surveys carried out in 2015 and 2016; DEMs and glacier outlines compiled from orthorectified aerial imagery pre-and post-event; GNSS data; Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) data; a terrestrial LiDAR scan survey of 2020, together with detailed interviews with 2 direct witnesses of the event, terrestrial and helicopter-borne photographs acquired 12 days after the sudden detachment. The combined interpretation of these new data, allow us to make a more precise estimation of the pre-detachment glacier volume, 12.9 ± 0.6 × 106 m3 and the detached ice volume of 11.7 ± 0.6 × 106 m3 (90% of the total volume of the glacier). We also show that in the 40-year period Aparejo Glacier has recovered 12.4% of the original glacier volume, with a mean ice thickness of 19.5 m and a maximum of 40 m according to GPR data, being preserved within the same basin as the detached glacier. In recent years, the glacier has shown a mean elevation change of −3.7 ± 1.2 m during the 2015–2020 period, with maximum thinning values greater than 8 m, which are probably caused by enhanced ablation due to climate warming and reduced precipitation during the current megadrought which started in 2010 and has lasted more than 1 decade. We conclude that under the projected scenarios of climate warming and reduced precipitation for central Chile, the risk associated to a new detachment of Aparejo Glacier is unlikely.