Future War Research Articles

Scientific Evidence of a Clash between Das Sollen and Das Sein in the book The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order by Samuel P Huntington

Conflicts between nations that adhere to distinct worldviews will continue to shape the course of world politics in the foreseeable future. Culture, not politics or economics, will drive future wars on a global scale; these two factors are becoming increasingly irrelevant. This battle, in turn, will be the most significant symptom that replaces the polarization of world ideology into communist and capitalism, together with the collapse of the governmental system in the vast majority of Eastern European countries. The following are some of the factors that, according to Huntington, would cause conflicts between different civilizations in the future of world politics: 1). Differences in culture, tradition, and ethnicity, as well as differences in people's perspectives on how humans should relate to God, are all part of what distinguishes one civilization from another. These philosophical differences are at the root of the fact that people of different civilizations have different perspectives on how humans should relate to God. 2). In the sense that the interaction between various peoples and civilizations is continuing to rise, we might say that the world is continuing to become a smaller place. When people connect with one another on a deeper level, their knowledge of their own civilization grows, and they become more attuned to the distinctions that exist between their culture and those of other civilizations. 3). People all across the world have been uprooted from their deep-seated roots of local identity as a consequence of the process of economic modernization and social development. This has occurred as a result of globalization. 4). The Western world has played a dual role, which has contributed to the development of civilization consciousness. This may be understood as a stronger sense of love for a belief in the identity of civilization that has been going on for a long time.

War, Fiscal Crisis, and the Imperial Mint: Financing Military Expenses in the second half of the 18th Century

Osmanlı tarihinin en sıkıntılı dönemlerinden biri 1774 yılında, Küçük Kaynarca Antlaşması’ndan sonra başladı. Osmanlı hazinesi biten savaşın mâliyeti altında ezilmişti, daha kötüsü müstakbel savaşa hazırlanmak için büyük sıkıntılarla baş etmek zorundaydı. Mali krizin zirveye çıktığı bu dönemde hazinenin en büyük destekçisi Darbhâne-i Ȃmire olacaktı. Sultan III. Mustafa’nın cülusundan sonra gelişen olaylar Darphane’ye ihtiyat hazinesi vasfı kazandırmıştı. Darphane çeşitli gelir gider fonlarında topladığı paraları ordu ve donanmanın masraflarını karşılamak üzere seferber etti. Bu dönemde (1766 – 1794 yılları arasında) Darphane’nin sadece zuhurat ve seferiye akçesi fonlarının geliri 88 milyon kuruşu aşıyordu. Üstelik tedavüldeki sikkelerin tağşişiyle sağlanan gelir bu paranın dışındaydı. Bu çalışmada Darphane’nin ihtiyat hazinesi olarak temin ettiği gelirleri askerî harcamaları karşılamak üzere nasıl kullandığı üzerinde durulacaktır.

Peace on Our Terms: The Global Battle for Women's Rights after the First World War

Peace on Our Terms: The Global Battle for Women's Rights after the First World War

Moral Norms in the Islamic Law of War

War is a universal phenomenon and has existed in the life of humanity in every period of history. War has many economic, political, political, and religious reasons. In the religion of Islam, there are reasons such as glorifying the name of Islam, preaching, ensuring the freedom of religion and life, preventing the persecution of Muslims by their enemies, and protecting the land. Islam has developed a law of war in accordance with its own moral system. Our study aims to identify the moral norms in this legal system and explain those norms. This work is important to understand the moral norms envisaged by Islam and reflected in the warfare, and to analyze the applicability of these norms beyond the time of the Prophet, so that a moral roadmap can be designated for current and potential future wars. 69 verses of Qur’ān have been evaluated in the context of the subject and included in our study. In addition, chapters written under the titles of jihād, ghazā’, and Sirah in the works of scholars such as Bukhārī, Muslim, Abū Dāwud, Tirmidhī, Nawawī, Zabīdī, Aḥmad b. Ḥanbal, Ibn al-Athīr, Ibn al-Jazarī Chapters and provisions related to the war in the main fiqh books such as Multaqā al-Abḥur, al-Ikhtiyār, al-Mughnī, al-Mabsūṭ, al-Muvaṭṭa’ were examined. The scope of the subject is limited to the expeditions and wars made during the reign of Muhammad (saw). War was an important factor in the spread of Islam, the recognition of Muslims, and the formation of international law during the Medina period of the Nubuwwah/prophethood. The number of battles during this period was 27, and while the exact number of Sariyya/expeditions is impossible to decide, it is expected to be between 35 and 66. So, warfare covers a considerable part of the life of Muslims in that era. For that reason, many independent works authored in the Islamic law of war set the basics for the conditions required for war, the limitations of confrontations with the enemy, and the status of hostages and prisoners; by considering the verses and hadiths related to jihād. The law of war manifests itself under these headings regarding nations, states, and international law. According to the results obtained in our study, it is observed that Islam prioritizes peace, but war is also required and encouraged when necessary. Depending on the circumstances, Muslims can be the defending side or the initiator of the war. Islam’s approach to international law is neither a continuous state of warfare nor all peace; rather, it is a principle attitude determined and shaped by conditions and necessity. Even when a war is inescapable; basic norms and moral values have been respected, such as the value given to life and living things; the importance given to living with minimum harm principle; the immunity of life, honor, and the sacred; not going to extremes; prohibition of cruelty, torment, and torture; principle of Pacta Sunt Servanda; observance of and respect for basic human rights and freedoms. Although there were a few exceptions, it is established that these rules were mostly followed in the period of the Prophet. However, it is a historical reality that these rules were bent and interpreted according to the necessities of the era in some wars after the Prophet's death. Therefore, the applicability of the principles of Islamic law of war established in the works of authors of previous ages in current warfare situations should be revisited, reviewed, and discussed more systematically due to reasons such as the change in conditions by time, the diversification and globalization of wars, and the change of arms and materials used in wars with the development of technology.

Cooperative evolution mechanism of multiclustered unmanned swarm on community networks

<p indent="0mm">Intelligent cooperative unmanned swarm operation is the main form of future war. Mechanism design is the fundamental way to realize autonomous cooperation and the key to generating combat effectiveness. Combined with the military law and business logic of unmanned swarm operation, exploring the essential characteristics and laws of autonomous cooperation has become the focus of scientific research and technology application with the characteristics of the times. This study analyzes military requirements and proposes the basic framework of autonomous cooperation of unmanned swarm, including the emergence of swarm intelligence, information network construction, and collaborative mechanism design. Based on the framework, the research on the frontier is then summarized in terms of the dynamics of swarm system, game-based swarm collaboration, and the cooperative evolution on complex networks. Next, the community network of an unmanned swarm is designed, a swarm cooperative evolution model based on the multipublic goods evolutionary game is constructed, and the evolutionary dynamics of the swarm in the community network is given; Finally, the influence of swarm scale, network degree distribution, cost, and benefit on swarm cooperative behavior is simulated and analyzed, and reasonable suggestions of cooperative management and control in swarm operation are given. The conclusion is expected to provide theoretical reference and decision support for cooperative mode design and combat effectiveness generation of unmanned swarm operations.

Normative architecture and applied international humanitarian law

AbstractMilitary strategists have begun pivoting from a focus on counterterrorism, counter-insurgency and stability operations to potential peer and near-peer conflict. This shift has profound operational and tactical implications for how future wars will be fought, but equally, it will have a significant impact on how international humanitarian law (IHL) is understood and applied. This article considers the process by which the normative evolution of IHL will occur in response to a battlespace that looks different than it has for decades. To do so, the article introduces two concepts: “normative architecture” and “applied IHL”. It argues that only by understanding the difference between these two concepts, and their relationship to each other, can States and others concerned with how IHL is developing in the face of future conflict positively affect that process.

North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons Development: The Impact for International Security and Stability

The development of nuclear weapons today is in many cases one of the threats of future wars. In fact, the development of this weapon is considered to be able to disrupt international stability and security. Nuclear weapons have developed since World War II, which destroyed Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. Until now, several countries are still competing to develop nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons are weapons that get power from nuclear reactions and have tremendous destructive power, a nuclear bomb can destroy a city. Countries that have nuclear weapons include the United States, Russia, Britain, France, China, India, North Korea, and Pakistan. Nuclear weapons can become weapons of mass destruction which of course threaten the stability of international security. As one of the nuclear-armed countries, North Korea is modernizing the country by focusing its strength on the planning economy, heavy industry, and military development. This study aims to analyze the development of North Korea's nuclear weapons in the context of international stability and security and its impact on international law enforcement, especially in the region of Southeast Asian countries.

Analysis of the impact of the armed conflict in Ukraine on the population of Romania.

PurposeThe study aims to highlight the behavior of people in a state in the vicinity of a military conflict zone. Specifically, it highlights the psychological behavior of Romanian citizens after the invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation. It was considered appropriate to carry out this study, given the novelty of such a situation, since, after the end of the Second World War, Europe has no longer faced major problems of insecurity caused by armed conflicts of this magnitude.MethodsThe study was based on the questionnaire applied to a number of 1,193 people with permanent residence in Romania and a minimum age of 18 years. The data were collected in the beginning phase of the invasion of Ukraine by the troops of the Russian Federation, i.e. between March 1–17, 2022. The aim was to obtain information that would allow the observation of re-spondents' opinions on the conflict in Ukraine and its potential escalation, and on the other hand, to allow the assessment of quality of life, using the WHQOL-BREEF measurement instrument.ResultsBased on the results of the study, the highest average satisfaction among the four domains of WHOQOL-BREF is represented by the “Psychological” domain, of the category of people with the lowest fear about a potential future war between Romania and the Russian Federation (83.62 ± 17.48). On the contrary, the lowest average is represented by the “Environment” domain, for the category of persons who do not feel protected by the fact that Romania is a NATO member state (61.77 ± 20.96).ConclusionsThe results of the study show that the indices of the quality of life of the people in Romania, as a state in the proximity of a military conflict with the potential to escalate, are negatively influenced by the fears of people who believe that the war in Ukraine will escalate into a regional or global conflict, or that the Russian Federation is going to use its nuclear arsenal against Ukraine or another NATO member state.

Scares, Panics, and Strategy: The Politics of Security and British Invasion Scares before 1914

ABSTRACT This study examines whether “invasion scares” before 1914 period had an impact on the course of British strategy. It shows that contemporary observers perceived a clear link between the ways in which British society depicted and understood issues of strategy and the ways in which the state could prepare for and conduct a future war. This was particularly so when it came to the language used to describe issues of security in Britain and the ideological consensus that these discourses reflected. The prominent place of discussions about how to defend the British Isles against invasion before 1914 therefore convinced some observers that Briton’s preoccupation with passive defence was rendering the nation vulnerable by robbing it of the capacity to adopt credible policies of deterrence and offensive action.

Imagining maritime conflict in the Indo-Pacific: can analogies substitute for strategy?

ABSTRACT Historical analogies are sometimes used to imagine the scope and nature of a potential conflict in the Indo-Pacific. Using analogies, scenarios, and “images” of future war, instead of strategy, however, can produce an inadequate assessment of future material, operational, and tactical requirements that will be encountered by the U.S. Navy in the maritime domain. Without a long-term strategy to set force development and guide operational requirements, the U.S. Navy will suffer from a “strategy deficit” when it comes to dealing with deterrence, coercion, and escalation in the Indo-Pacific. As planning guidance, the use of analogies is no substitute for strategy.

The unsolicited rocket: a story of science, technology, and future wars

ABSTRACT This article investigates the puzzling case of the unsolicited rocket: a Norwegian research establishment successfully developed a weapon system that no one wanted or had asked for that was later widely adopted. We argue that the ‘Terne’ weapon existed not because it was needed based on rational calculations about efficiency, but because of the narratives, coalitions, and competitive dynamics that surrounded it and made it useful. Conventionally, war and technology are often considered distinct ‘things’ with immutable essences, used as variables to explain other phenomena, rather than being examined on their own terms. In this case, we focus empirically on the configuration of sociotechnical imaginaries, and the capacities for action that arise out of it. In foregrounding sociotechnical systems, this is not a case of the ‘militarization’ of civilian society and research in peacetime. Rather, agency lay in competitive networks of narratives and coalitions between technologies, individuals, professions, technological communities, military organizations, and funding bodies, together shaping how ideas and technologies become authoritative and dominant.

Markets, Governments, And Crises In The Past And Future Of The EU

The common-market project, that after World War II aimed to prevent future wars among European Nations, evolved through crises into a complicated and unstable set of European Union policies and institutions. The COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine reinforced coordination and added common debt issuance to the supranational policy toolkit. But the NextGenEU program relies heavily on government subsidies rather than on market incentives, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shows that economic integration can at most move the boundaries of war to those of the integrated economic area, rather than of Nations. These developments weaken the crucial role of integrated markets as the principal instrument for growth, cohesion, stability, and peace in Europe.

Prospective directions for innovative development strategies in pharmacy in the military health system of the Russian Federation

Strengthening the readiness of the medical service system of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation to fulfill given tasks is possible only with innovative development, which constitutes the scientific and methodological basis for the modernization of military healthcare. In this connection, researchers at the pharmacy department of the Kirov Military medical Academy considered the development of kits and equipment, medical equipment, mobile and special medical equipment, and pharmaceutical technologies as the absolute priority of their scientific development. The requirements for the equipment of different units and military medical organizations both at present conditions and in future wars include high level of mobility, shortened deployment (curtailment) terms, autonomy, increased operational efficiency of units, etc. The realization of these requirements is possible if certain issues are solved, primarily aimed at the digitalization of medical supply system of military forces, improvement of basic equipment, and entering new developments in the field of pharmaceutical technology into the medical service of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. The article presents the perspective directions of the innovative development of the medical supply system of the Armed Forces, which is the most important element of military healthcare. Results of the activity such as creation and acceptance for the supply of mobile units for production, accumulation (storage), delivery, distribution of medical gaseous oxygen, registration of medicinal products (medical oxygen, 93%), and acceptance of the corresponding pharmacopoeial article are already represented. Still at the development stage, there are innovative sets of service equipment of airborne troops, sterilization, and distillation unit, allowing the use of water from natural surface sources of domestic and drinking water supply, etc.

The politics of future war: Civil-military relations and military doctrine in Britain

AbstractTensions between civil and military authorities over issues such as budgets and strategic posture are unavoidable in pluralistic societies. Scholars of Civil-Military Relations (CMR) have identified a range of practices through which civil-military contestation occurs, and examined their implications for issues such as military effectiveness. This literature, however, has yet to incorporate critical approaches to knowledge into its analysis. Seeking to fill this gap, this article explores how the British military's presentation of its professional knowledge has been increasingly shaped by the political context of British defence policy. More specifically, it argues that the British armed forces’ presentation of opaque imaginations of future war in military doctrine has sought to entrench the role of Defence in an environment of increasingly integrated governmental responses to security challenges. To do this, the article focuses specifically on two concepts that have become increasingly significant in the British defence establishment's articulation of its professional authority and strategic purpose – Multi-Domain Integration (MDI) and the Integrated Operating Concept (IOpC). The article therefore contributes to the literature a fresh perspective of the role of military doctrine and epistemic practices in civil-military contestation, as well as a critical account of the politics of knowledge in British defence.

Formability Characteristics and Penetration Performance of Micro-Jets from Different Materials

A micro-unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) swarm has high flexibility and intelligent unmanned flight and stealth capabilities. Moreover, it can attack both single and group targets, which will occupy dominant positions in the future information war. To satisfy the new micro-UAV swarm information combat mode and contribute to the advances in ammunition flexibility, efficiency, miniaturization, and multipurpose applicability, a 10 mm caliber micro-shaped charge warhead was designed in this study. The results indicate that the micro-shaped charge can be assembled with a micro-UAV swarm to efficiently damage the targets without relying on the weapon launch velocity. To realize a lightweight and high-efficiency micro-shaped charge structure, the formability of Teflon, nylon, polycarbonate (polycarb), and metallic copper liners was studied using the finite element analysis. The penetration efficiencies of different micro-jets on gelatin targets were compared and analyzed. It was found that the micro-shaped charge nylon and Teflon jets could pass through the gelatin target and transfer more energy to it compared with copper. The observed penetration aperture was also larger. Although the penetration depth of the polycarb jet to the target was the smallest, the penetration aperture was the largest. The findings of this study can serve as a basis for the development of micro-shaped charge technology.

Shining a Light on Eyvind Johnson’s Sidelined Novel, Nittonhundrasjutton

Abstract The article offers a re-assessment of a little-known novel by Eyvind Johnson, Nittonhundrasjutton (1930–31), which was published purely in periodical form and has received very limited critical attention hitherto. The article approaches the novel through the theoretical lens of the widening and softening tendencies that characterise current understandings of the field of modernist literature. The appreciation of Johnson’s novel is informed, furthermore, by new insights into the role of interwar modernism in registering and responding to the afterlife of war as well as the spectre of a future war. The article argues that the sidelining of the novel in the reception of Johnson’s work is attributable more to its unusual publication mode than to any lack of artistic merit. After providing perspectives on the circumstances that surrounded Johnson’s creation of the novel, the article goes on to substantiate and scrutinise the novel’s modernist display of innovative temporalities and spatialities as well as its satirical sophistication. The article concludes that the novel deserves recognition for its original depiction of the fractured reality of wartime as it is lived and felt hundreds of kilometres from the core war zone.

Imagining total onslaught: South African military threat scenarios and doctrinal change, 1953–1975

ABSTRACT The Apartheid-era South African military (SADF) underwent dramatic peacetime changes, from a small and underfunded expeditionary element of Commonwealth forces in the 1950s to a regime bulwark with regional capabilities under ‘Total Strategy’ in the mid-1970s. By comparing internal assessments, changes in the SADF’s official view of future wars are traced through security crises of the 1960s and 1970s. Shifting future war perceptions were shaped by the interplay of organizational-political needs during crises of legitimacy for the military. These shifts in future war perception motivated strategic and operational-tactical doctrinal change and shaped the military’s view of security crises.

Intelligent Guidance and Control Methods for Missile Swarm.

High-speed unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are more and more widely used in both military and civil fields at present, especially the missile swarm attack, and will play an irreplaceable key role in the future war as a special combat mode. This study summarizes the guidance and control methods of missile swarm attack operation. First, the traditional design ideas of the guidance and control system are introduced; then, the typical swarm attack guidance and control methods are analyzed by taking their respective characteristics into considering, and the limitations of the traditional design methods are given. On this basis, the study focuses on the advantages of intelligent integrated guidance and control design over traditional design ideas, summarizes the commonly used integrated guidance and control design methods and their applications, and explores the cooperative attack strategy of missile swarm suitable for the integrated guidance and control system. Finally, the challenges of missile swarm guidance and control are described, and the problems worthy of further research in the future are prospected. Summarizing the guidance and control methods of missile will contribute to the innovative research in this field, so as to promote the rapid development of unmanned swarm attack technology.

Optimising peace through a Universal Global Peace Treaty to constrain the risk of war from a militarised artificial superintelligence.

This article argues that an artificial superintelligence (ASI) emerging in a world where war is still normalised constitutes a catastrophic existential risk, either because the ASI might be employed by a nation–state to war for global domination, i.e., ASI-enabled warfare, or because the ASI wars on behalf of itself to establish global domination, i.e., ASI-directed warfare. Presently, few states declare war or even war on each other, in part due to the 1945 UN Charter, which states Member States should “refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force”, while allowing for UN Security Council-endorsed military measures and self-defense. As UN Member States no longer declare war on each other, instead, only ‘international armed conflicts’ occur. However, costly interstate conflicts, both hot and cold and tantamount to wars, still take place. Further, a New Cold War between AI superpowers looms. An ASI-directed/enabled future conflict could trigger total war, including nuclear conflict, and is therefore high risk. Via conforming instrumentalism, an international relations theory, we advocate risk reduction by optimising peace through a Universal Global Peace Treaty (UGPT), contributing towards the ending of existing wars and prevention of future wars, as well as a Cyberweapons and Artificial Intelligence Convention. This strategy could influence state actors, including those developing ASIs, or an agential ASI, particularly if it values conforming instrumentalism and peace.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00146-021-01382-y.

Lessons of the Cold War

Lessons of the Cold War