Vulnerability Reduction Measures Research Articles

A study on climate‐driven vulnerabilities in the Ranganadi river basin: Sand‐Casting impacts on rural households

AbstractThe Ranganadi river basin, spanning a catchment area of 2335 km2 in the North Lakhimpur region of Assam is one of the worst flood‐affected areas in the North Eastern region of India. The basin is densely populated and the land around this river is extensively used for cultivation. Progressive migration of the banklines leads to the loss of cultivable land. Breach in embankments protecting agricultural fields during the monsoon, as well as the presence of infertile sand in agriculture fields are some of the most dominant facets of riverine hazards directly connected with the loss of livelihood in the study area The objective of this research is to assess the vulnerability of the population residing in these flood plains to the impacts of sand casting, utilizing Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) approach. The research included 377 households, and a comprehensive analysis was carried out. The analysis revealed varying degrees of vulnerability for 0.306 (socio‐demographic profile), 0.489 (livelihood strategies), and 0.413 (social networks). Sensitivity values were 0.495 (health), 0.487 (food security), 0.368 (water availability), and 0.391 (psychological factors). Exposure was rated high at 0.494, indicating vulnerability to natural disasters and climate variability. These values highlighted the most vulnerable components of the population due to the disaster and helped to suggest vulnerability reduction measures. The novelty of the study based on the result is that the LVI was meticulously formulated and adapted specifically for the study area. This localized approach allowed the unique socio‐economic and environmental dynamics of the affected population to be captured very well.

Identifying disaster risk factors and hotspots in Africa from spatiotemporal decadal analyses using INFORM data for risk reduction and sustainable development

AbstractThe incidence and magnitude of hazards in Africa are escalating. Extant knowledge base of disaster risk (DR) trends, factors, and hotspots is lacking for the continent. Here we applied random forest machine learning regressions, spatial stratified heterogeneity, and hotspot analyses on INFORM data to identify DR patterns, factors and interactions, and notable risk hotspots. We show that although DR is generally decreasing in Africa, the Eastern, Southern, and Western regions record increasing DR. Physical exposure to floods, epidemics, and violent conflicts are hazard drivers of DR in Africa. Other significant DR drivers are mostly clustered under vulnerable groups and poor infrastructural coping capacities. Human hazards interact with other factors, exhibiting the highest influences on DR. Precisely, 19 out of 53 African countries in this study are DR hotspots. Eritrea is identified as a new hotspot. Targeted policies, resilience building, vulnerability reduction measures and comprehensive sustainability‐infused solutions are required for DR reduction and sustainable development in Africa.

Flood risk assessment of the population in Afghanistan: A spatial analysis of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability

Flooding is a recurrent and severe natural hazard in Afghanistan, exacerbated by climate change, and poses significant threats to human lives and livelihoods. The country's socioeconomic vulnerabilities make it highly susceptible to the devastating impacts of disasters, resulting in loss of lives, livelihoods, and damage to public and private assets. This study employs a multimethod research approach, combining remote sensing-based flood data analysis with spatial analysis and literature studies, to comprehensively assess flood risk by considering hazard, exposure, and vulnerability indicators. Specifically, a 25-year return flood event was used to examine flood risk for the exposed population. The framework proposed by the IPCC in 2014 was adopted to define flood risk, encompassing hazard, exposure, and vulnerability components. The findings reveal that provinces located near major river basins, particularly in the southern, northern, and northeastern regions, experience the highest flood risk. Notably, the provinces of Nimroz and Helmand in the southern region exhibit pronounced risk index values of 0.20 and 0.10, with a highly exposed population of 36% and 15%, respectively, and vulnerability index values of 0.57 and 0.62. Similarly, in the northern and northeastern regions, the provinces of Jawzjan and Kunduz also display elevated risk levels, each with a risk index value of 0.11, characterized by highly exposed populations of 21% and 18%, respectively, and vulnerability index values of 0.53 and 0.57. This multi-method approach provides valuable insights into the spatial distribution of flood risk and the drivers of population exposure, assisting policymakers and decision-makers in formulating effective flood risk reduction strategies through targeted flood vulnerability and risk reduction measures.

Methodology for the analysis of structural vulnerability of WUI settlements

As WUI fires have become a global concern, there is a growing need for engineering methodologies that lead to proactive fire management not only at the landscape level, but at all WUI scales. This paper presents a quantitative methodology for structural vulnerability assessment at the WUI settlement level that is based on 10 indicators, established for the different fire exposure phases a WUI area experiences (pre-impact, impact and fire transfer) as well as on other factors that can escalate vulnerability. As output, a Structural Vulnerability Index (SVI) for the entire analyzed area can be obtained. The methodology can not only assess vulnerability of WUI settlements in a quantitative way, but it can also quantify the effect of measures employed for the reduction of this vulnerability. Additionally, the methodology is suitable for comparison between different settlements or neighborhoods of the same area. A case study for the city of Barcelona, Spain, is presented, in which 9 WUI neighborhoods are analyzed and vulnerability reduction measures are prioritized.

Towards a Resilient Ecotourism Destination: Assessment of the Ella Urban Development Plan 2021-2030

Ella, with its environmental and ecological attributes and highest room occupancy rate (75.24%), attracted 120,000 (6%) of the total tourist arrivals to Sri Lanka in 2019, also projects 2 million visits by 2030. Due to topographical features and climate change implications, Ella is prone to natural disasters, especially the main access road of Ella-Wellawaya and surrounding areas of Ella town. 99% of occupants in Ella are self-employed in the tourism industry. The Ella urban development plan 2021-2030 (the plan) was formulated with the goal of developing the area as the most attractive and safest tourism destination in the hills. Tourism resilience improves capacities to recover the tourism sector from disasters and reduces tourism-induced stress on the society and environment through integration of disaster risk reduction (DRR) strategies. In this context, the objective of the study was to assess the extent to which the Plan considered DRR strategies towards a disaster resilient tourism industry. A qualitative methodology was adopted where hazard identification and vulnerability reduction, being key elements in DRR, were chosen to assess components of the Plan-Scope (1), Background Study (2), Need of the Plan (3), Goal and Objectives (4), SWOT Analysis (5), and the Plan (6). Relevant secondary data were obtained from official sources and reviewed journal articles. Despite Ella being identified as a multi-hazard area by the Disaster Management Centre, hazard identification of the plan was limited to landslides; not considering high winds, cyclones, and lightning in 2, 5 components. Being the main objective, consideration towards reducing ecological vulnerability was visible in all components. The unauthorized constructions in protected areas, which may have an underlying relationship with economical vulnerability, were neither identified nor, vulnerability reduction measures proposed. Social vulnerability reduction measures were also absent despite 18% of female-headed households and 17% of female involvement in the tourism industry in various capacities. The tourism infrastructure and beautification projects were prioritized over projects aimed at physical vulnerability reduction of existing tourism infrastructure and stakeholders. It was found that the resilience of the tourism industry to natural disasters was compromised as DRR in the aspect of hazard identification, and reduction of social, physical, and economical vulnerability were inadequate. Therefore, the study recommends amending the Plan, or to pass a separate by-law by the local government authority to integrate comprehensive hazard identification, and integrate intervention for reduction of social, economic, and physical vulnerabilities for a resilient tourism destination, while conserving the natural environment in Ella.
 Keywords: Resilient ecotourism, Ella tourism destination, Urban development plan, Conservation of nature

Integrating vulnerability analysis into the early stage distributed naval ship system design process

Vulnerability reduction measures are taken during the early stage distributed ship system design process to ensure the availability of the required systems in a damaged state. Traditionally these vulnerability reduction measures are based on design rules or best practices resulting from past experiences. Therefore, the measures are not per definition applicable for future warships, as both the system concepts and operational environment changes. Recently developed vulnerability assessment methods are able to determine the vulnerability of a design early in the design process. With the integration of these methods in the early stage design process, the results of the analysis can be used to generate less vulnerable distributed ship system designs. This paper proposes an integral and holistic approach to optimisation of the design variables and distributed networks as these are becoming increasingly interdependent. The result of this approach is a model which generates distributed ship system designs consisting of component positions, a topology and routed connections based on a pre-defined system configuration and constraining physical architecture. Five testcases were conducted using this model, showing the necessity of the integral and holistic approach as the extent to which the contemporary design rules are implemented depends on the network complexity and operational environment.

Optimal Timing of the Seismic Vulnerability Reduction Measures Using Real Options Analysis

The uninterrupted performance of the infrastructure systems of a community is essential to its welfare and prosperity. Infrastructure assets are continuously subject to degradation, which can compromise their performance and increase their seismic vulnerability. Measures such as seismic retrofits should be adopted to ensure the uninterrupted performance of infrastructure assets. Proper timing of these interventions can reduce the total costs incurred by the communities. To this end, an appropriate investment valuation method is needed. This study proposes an investment valuation framework that addresses this need. At the core of this framework is a real options model that determines the optimal time to implement seismic vulnerability reduction measures considering various uncertainties about the state of the asset, the probable future hazards, and the costs incurred by the community. The main contribution of this study to the body of knowledge is the creation of a framework based on real options analysis (ROA) that is tailored to the context of investment decision-making and timing of seismic vulnerability reduction measures. Practitioners can use this framework to plan the implementation of seismic vulnerability reduction measures, avoid over- or underinvestment in these interventions, enhance their flexibility in using limited available financial resources, and achieve resilience enhancement objectives.

Study on allocation and realization method of helicopter vulnerability index

To reduce the vulnerability of attack helicopters under fragment/projectile strikes, the method of assigning vulnerability index from the whole aircraft to critical components under single and multiple attacks is mainly studied. Under a single strike, the system components in the same direction are divided into three situations: no component overlap, nonredundant model with component overlap and redundant model with component overlap. Two index allocation methods based on the ratio of the presented area of the critical components and the ratio of the vulnerability assessment results of the critical components are proposed. The system components are divided into redundant components and non-redundant components, and an index allocation method based on the proportion of critical components' vulnerability results is proposed under multiple strikes. On this basis, combining with the vulnerability reduction measures of attack helicopters, the vulnerability index requirements of corresponding components are achieved through iterative analysis. Finally, the AH-64D helicopter is subjected to simulation tests under single and multiple strikes, and the vulnerability indexes of B-level and C-level are assigned, which verified the feasibility of the method.

Vulnerability of Peasant Farmers to Climate Variability and Change in Semi-Arid Ethiopia

Vulnerability study identifies the most vulnerable systems, regions, peoples, and the contributing factors to the vulnerability. Vulnerability study in climate change context is crucial to effectively and efficiently reduce the impacts of climate variability and change. This study assessed the vulnerability of peasant farmers to climate variability and change in semi-arid Ethiopia. The semi-arid zone was categorized into southern, central, and northern semi-arid. From each semi-arid zone, sample districts and sample peasant associations were selected respectively by manual lottery and purposive sampling techniques. 396 household surveys, 12 focus group discussions, and rainfall and temperature data were used for analysis. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used as the main analysis technique to construct the vulnerability indices. The central semi-arid zone with the vulnerability index of -3.07 was highly vulnerable at χ²(2) =43.9986, P ≤ 0.05, while the northern semi-arid zone with the vulnerability index of 4.83 was the least vulnerable. The lack of access to a clean drinking water source, main road, and market center were among the factors that contributed to farmers’ vulnerability to climate variability and change in central semi-arid Ethiopia. The lack of access to information, small farmland holding size, and lack of multipurpose trees on the farmland are among the factors that have to be addressed in northern semi-arid even if it is relatively the least vulnerable. The level of farmers’ vulnerability to climate variability and change and the contributing factors to farmers’ vulnerability varies in semi-arid Ethiopia. Vulnerability reduction measures need to be specific to each semi-arid zone and priority needs to be given according to their degree of vulnerability. Keywords: Peasant Farmers, Vulnerability, Climate Change, Semi-Arid Ethiopia DOI: 10.7176/JEES/10-5-07 Publication date: May 31 st 2020

Flood survivors' perspectives on vulnerability reduction to floods in Mbire district, Zimbabwe.

Disasters result from the interactions of hazards and vulnerability conditions. Considering the perspectives of survivors of a disaster event is critical for reducing the progression of vulnerability conditions. The Mbire community in Zimbabwe is facing increasing threats from recurring high- and low-magnitude floods that manifest themselves in the disruption of livelihoods and destruction of crops and infrastructure. This study, therefore, explored the perspectives of flood survivors on vulnerability to floods and examined their vulnerability-reduction measures. Using an interpretivist approach to knowledge generation, a sample of 51 research participants provided data through interviews, a focus group discussion and field observations. Results showed that shortage of land, flood-based farming practices, poverty and climate change, amongst others, are the key drivers of the smallholder farmers’ vulnerability to floods. The most affected groups of people include women, children and the elderly. To reduce their vulnerability, the smallholder farmers mainly rely on traditional flood-proofed structures built on stilts, dual home system and indigenous flood forecasting. The study proposes six policy implications to reduce vulnerability to floods. These include diversifying rural livelihoods beyond the farming sector, investment in irrigation infrastructure, increasing access to financial resources, constructing human settlements away from floodplains, enforcing environmental laws regarding flood-based farming and community education on the long-term negative impacts of recession farming. The implementation of these policy recommendations can contribute to community resilience to flood disasters.

A system dynamics model to evaluate the housing market response to vulnerability reduction promotion policies

Interventions such as seismic retrofits and reconstruction of vulnerable buildings can minimize the social and economic consequences of future earthquakes. Various policies can reduce the vulnerability of communities in the face of future earthquakes by enhancing the public risk perception and reducing the costs of interventions for the landlords. There is a need for appropriate tools that can characterize the dynamics of the housing market in response to these policies. The simulation model presented in this manuscript addresses this need. In this model, the decision of the tenants and landlords is characterized by utilizing prospect theory. The impact of candidate policy interventions on the housing market dynamics, the vulnerability reduction measures implementation rates, and the resultant reduction in the vulnerability of the building stock can be evaluated using the proposed model. The capabilities of the proposed model in simulating the policy-induced shifts in the demand between the housing units with different levels of seismic vulnerability, the response of the landlords to these shifts in the demand, and the consequent price movements are shown in the illustrative example. The results indicate that subsidizing the costs of interventions or solely enhancing public awareness may not lead to desired outcomes. It also provides valuable insights into the impact of individuals’ risk- and loss-aversion on their response to the evaluated policies. Practitioners can use the proposed model to design new policies that effectively enhance the resilience of communities.

A Study on Cyclone Aila Recovery in Koyra, Bangladesh: Evaluating the Inclusiveness of Recovery with Respect to Predisaster Vulnerability Reduction

The need to consider disaster risk reduction at the time of recovery is well-recognized. Viable disaster risk reduction measures should resolve the root causes of predisaster vulnerabilities. Accordingly, we investigated the recovery from the impact of Cyclone Aila in Koyra Upazila, Bangladesh, which was severely damaged by this 2009 cyclone. Our research focused on understanding pre-Aila vulnerabilities to cyclone impact and examined the degree of inclusion of vulnerability reduction measures within the recovery process. A composite methodology that included an institutional survey, key informant interviews, collection of the judgment of experts, focus group discussions, and a score-based quantification technique was adopted. Through a process of understanding pre-Aila vulnerabilities, recognition of the root causes of these inherent weaknesses, and identification of appropriate measures for pre-Aila vulnerability reduction, a set of 23 indicators were selected to represent the most desirable vulnerability reduction measures to implement during recovery. A score-based technique was applied to measure the degree of inclusion of vulnerability reduction within the recovery with respect to the indicators. The scoring result shows that the degree of inclusion of vulnerability reduction within the recovery was poor. The result specifies that among the 23 indicators of potential vulnerability reduction measures, 10 are completely missing and the rest are only partially included. The overall findings imply that the Koyra community continues to live with a vulnerability similar to that of the pre-Aila period.

Using partial participatory GIS in vulnerability and disaster risk reduction in Grenada

This paper describes the findings of a novel participatory geographic information systems (PGISs) methodology designed to support vulnerability and disaster risk management (DRM) efforts in small Caribbean communities. The methodology combines community vulnerability mapping with geo-referenced household data through a step-by-step approach to record information on household vulnerability and community hazards. We used “partial” PGIS to demonstrate the benefits of implementing a participatory mapping technique with an external facilitator who undertook the technical geographic information system aspects of the mapping process. Results show that as a tool for knowledge co-production and stakeholder engagement, PGIS can be useful to record local spatial knowledge on vulnerability and hazards whilst supporting the development of risk and vulnerability reduction measures. By helping community members understand and manage vulnerability, this approach has the potential to become an important mechanism to support vulnerability reduction and DRM strategies in small Caribbean communities. Following the approach described in this paper, similar activities can be easily replicated in other parts of the world.

INTEGRATED ESTIMATION OF SEISMIC PHYSICAL VULNERABILITY OF TEHRAN USING RULE BASED GRANULAR COMPUTING

Abstract. Tehran, the capital of Iran, is surrounded by the North Tehran fault, the Mosha fault and the Rey fault. This exposes the city to possibly huge earthquakes followed by dramatic human loss and physical damage, in particular as it contains a large number of non-standard constructions and aged buildings. Estimation of the likely consequences of an earthquake facilitates mitigation of these losses. Mitigation of the earthquake fatalities may be achieved by promoting awareness of earthquake vulnerability and implementation of seismic vulnerability reduction measures. In this research, granular computing using generality and absolute support for rule extraction is applied. It uses coverage and entropy for rule prioritization. These rules are combined to form a granule tree that shows the order and relation of the extracted rules. In this way the seismic physical vulnerability is assessed, integrating the effects of the three major known faults. Effective parameters considered in the physical seismic vulnerability assessment are slope, seismic intensity, height and age of the buildings. Experts were asked to predict seismic vulnerability for 100 randomly selected samples among more than 3000 statistical units in Tehran. The integrated experts’ point of views serve as input into granular computing. Non-redundant covering rules preserve the consistency in the model, which resulted in 84% accuracy in the seismic vulnerability assessment based on the validation of the predicted test data against expected vulnerability degree. The study concluded that granular computing is a useful method to assess the effects of earthquakes in an earthquake prone area.

Managing vulnerability: the implementation of vulnerability reduction measures

Activities involving hazardous substances may cause safety risks to the environment. In addition to hazard reduction measures, such as implementing safety management systems at hazardous facilities, and exposure reduction measures, such as employing safe distances between vulnerable objects and hazardous activities, safety risks can be further minimised through the implementation of vulnerability reduction measures. In the area near where activities involving dangerous substances are being carried out, measures can be taken to reduce the vulnerability, such as increasing the possibilities for emergency response and evacuation. This paper examines what the issues influencing the consideration and implementation of vulnerability reduction measures are. This is done through an examination of land use planning projects in the Netherlands and an analysis of two examinations from the National Human Environment and Transport Inspectorate on the implementation of vulnerability reduction measures to discuss the representativeness of the findings for the Netherlands. The examinations, including the examinations of the Inspectorate, show that the consideration of vulnerability reduction measures is narrower than required by Dutch rules and regulations. Additionally, the implementation of measures is limited. Only half of the vulnerability reduction measures that are adopted in land use plans are actually implemented. Important factors that hampered the consideration and adoption of measures are the restrictions of actual rules and regulation with respect to the enforceability of measures, the limited expertise of those involved and the lack of clarity in tasks and roles regarding the consideration and monitoring of vulnerability reduction measures. More fundamentally, the effectiveness of measures and the need for further risk reduction was discussed. Consequently, more insight is required into the costs and benefits of vulnerability reduction measures and if a more explicit consideration of vulnerability in land use planning practices is desired, elaboration will be needed in the areas of planning legislations, procedures and expertise.

The vulnerability of the elderly to hurricane hazards in Sarasota, Florida

Although the elderly are commonly thought to be disproportionately vulnerable to natural hazards, the elderly populations of coastal communities are continuing to grow. Because there is little to no empirical hazards work specifically addressing the vulnerable elderly in coastal communities, this paper uses Sarasota County, Florida, as a case study to analyze how vulnerable the elderly are to hurricane hazards and whether all elderly people are equally vulnerable. To explore the spatial variations in degree and composition of vulnerability among this population, the analysis maps physical exposure to hurricane storm-surge inundation and precipitation-induced flooding and creates social vulnerability indices by applying principal components analysis to census block group data in a geographic information system. The results show that elderly inhabitants of barrier islands face a considerable physical threat from hurricane-induced storm surge and flooding but are less socially vulnerable because of their wealth; the elderly living inland are far less physically vulnerable but are poorer and consequently demonstrate high socioeconomic sensitivity and limited adaptive capacity to these hurricane hazards. The paper concludes that the elderly are not equally vulnerable: there are many different types of elderly living in many different locations, and their vulnerability varies by type and over space. Effective vulnerability reduction measures should account for these differences between the elderly populations.

Measuring people's preferences for cyclone vulnerability reduction measures in Bangladesh

PurposeThis paper aims to examine people's preferences for alternative cyclone vulnerability reduction measures in cyclone prone areas of Bangladesh.Design/methodology/approachA choice experiment (CE) method has been implemented based on the pressure and release (PAR) vulnerability model. Data were collected from a sample of households in two districts of Bangladesh in winter 2008.FindingsThe results of a choice experiment (CE) method conducted in selected areas of Bangladesh prone to cyclone hazards indicated that access to resources is viewed as the most influential factor in cyclone vulnerability reduction options. Findings support the pressure and release model (PAR) of vulnerability analysis. Access to training and education and cyclone warning systems are also found to have significant impacts on households' choices of cyclone vulnerability reduction. Structural mitigation measures and access to power and decision making, though significant, were found to have the least impact.Research limitations/implicationsThe paper shows that the choice experiment method is a good technique for understanding people's preferences for vulnerability reduction measures.Practical implicationsThe paper concludes with a policy recommendation for governmental and non‐governmental agencies to focus on vulnerability reduction measures that tackle the root causes of vulnerability.Originality/valueThis is the first time that the choice experiment method has been used for cyclone vulnerability analysis, and it provides quantitative supports for the PAR model.

Indian Ocean tsunami and aftermath

PurposeThe purpose of the paper is to provide an overview on two specific issues of reconstruction process: environment disaster linkage, and cross‐learning among affected countries. The paper also demonstrates a unique community‐based reconstruction program in three affected countries.Design/methodology/approachTwo approaches are adopted in the paper: one, description of salient features of past reconstruction process, roles of different stakeholders, and vulnerability reduction – human security context. The other part is description of a specific program highlighting its goal, objective, scope and activities. Focus is given on the community‐based reconstruction process with in‐depth analysis, followed by the dissemination of the results to wider communities.FindingsThe major finding of the paper is that the reconstruction process should be considered as development opportunity, and should be linked to vulnerability reduction measures of the community, which, in long term, will lead to enhancement of human security.Research limitations/implicationsThe long‐term impact of the reconstruction process is yet to be verified. It will remain as future challenge how the community‐based initiatives are linked to policy and plans of the government.Practical implicationsThe paper describes field‐based reconstruction process in three countries, which are implemented in cooperation with local communities and local non‐government organizations. Thus, the findings of the paper are directly related to its practical implications.Originality/valueThe original part of the paper is that it highlights two very important issues of the reconstruction process. The paper also provides detail description of the innovative community‐based reconstruction process. It gives a unique analysis to link reconstruction process with vulnerability reduction and enhancement of human security.