Vulnerability Of Water Resources Research Articles

Assessing and Predicting the Water Resources Vulnerability under Various Climate-Change Scenarios: A Case Study of Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin, China.

The Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin plays an important strategic role in China’s economic development, but severe water resources problems restrict the development of the three basins. Most of the existing research is focused on the trends of single hydrological and meteorological indicators. However, there is a lack of research on the cause analysis and scenario prediction of water resources vulnerability (WRV) in the three basins, which is the very important foundation for the management of water resources. First of all, based on the analysis of the causes of water resources vulnerability, this article set up the evaluation index system of water resource vulnerability from three aspects: water quantity, water quality and disaster. Then, we use the Improved Blind Deletion Rough Set (IBDRS) method to reduce the dimension of the index system, and we reduce the original 24 indexes to 12 evaluation indexes. Third, by comparing the accuracy of random forest (RF) and artificial neural network (ANN) models, we use the RF model with high fitting accuracy as the evaluation and prediction model. Finally, we use 12 evaluation indexes and an RF model to analyze the trend and causes of water resources vulnerability in three basins during 2000–2015, and further predict the scenarios in 2020 and 2030. The results show that the vulnerability level of water resources in the three basins has been improved during 2000–2015, and the three river basins should follow the development of scenario 1 to ensure the safety of water resources. The research proved that the combination of IBDRS and an RF model is a very effective method to evaluate and forecast the vulnerability of water resources in the Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin.

The NExus Solutions Tool (NEST) v1.0: an open platform for optimizing multi-scale energy–water–land system transformations

Abstract. The energy–water–land nexus represents a critical leverage future policies must draw upon to reduce trade-offs between sustainable development objectives. Yet, existing long-term planning tools do not provide the scope or level of integration across the nexus to unravel important development constraints. Moreover, existing tools and data are not always made openly available or are implemented across disparate modeling platforms that can be difficult to link directly with modern scientific computing tools and databases. In this paper, we present the NExus Solutions Tool (NEST): a new open modeling platform that integrates multi-scale energy–water–land resource optimization with distributed hydrological modeling. The new approach provides insights into the vulnerability of water, energy and land resources to future socioeconomic and climatic change and how multi-sectoral policies, technological solutions and investments can improve the resilience and sustainability of transformation pathways while avoiding counterproductive interactions among sectors. NEST can be applied at different spatial and temporal resolutions, and is designed specifically to tap into the growing body of open-access geospatial data available through national inventories and the Earth system modeling community. A case study analysis of the Indus River basin in south Asia demonstrates the capability of the model to capture important interlinkages across system transformation pathways towards the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals, including the intersections between local and regional transboundary policies and incremental investment costs from rapidly increasing regional consumption projected over the coming decades.

Assessing the vulnerability of water resources in the context of climate changes in a small forested watershed using SWAT: A review

The present study evaluates the applicability performance of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in small forested watersheds (less than 1000 km2). This open-source software is widely used in investigations focused on water availability and quality. Overall, SWAT model performance ranges between satisfactory to good. Normally, underestimates daily peak discharges. The limitations of the model are related to the accuracy of climate data used and to the time period used for validation. Watershed area, forest cover and streamflow spatial distribution have an important influence on modeling processes. Overall, from the analyzed studies, we observed for discharge a decreasing tendency, more pronounced towards the end of the 21st century (up to −54%). For surface runoff, was noticed the same decreasing tendency up to 41%. Regarding sediment yield, the results vary within very wide limits. These findings vary according to watershed location, scenarios adopted, and the eligible period of time.

Climate change in northern Patagonia: critical decrease in water resources

The current study presents an assessment of the impact of climate change on water yield, one of the main hydrological ecosystem services, in northern Patagonia. The outputs of regional climate models from the CORDEX Project for South America were used to drive the InVEST water yield model. CORDEX regional climate models project for the far future (2071–2100) an increase in temperature higher than 1.5 °C and a precipitation decrease ranging from − 10 to − 30% for the study area. The projected warmer and dryer climate emerges as a robust signal based on model agreement and on consistent physical drivers of these changes. Moreover, both the projected increase in evapotranspiration and the decrease in precipitation contribute to a strong decrease in water yield of around − 20 to − 40% in the headwaters of northern Patagonian watersheds. Comparison of the results in the two basins reveals that the land cover may be considered a buffer of water yield changes and highlights the key role of protected areas in reducing the vulnerability of water resources to climate change.

Assessing the efficiency of WRASTIC method in determining the vulnerability of surface water resources in semi-arid region using the NSFWQI

In this study, the WRASTIC method was used to assess the surface water vulnerability in sub-catchments of Kivi Dam's watershed which is located in the north-east of Iran using remote sensing and GIS techniques. Monthly change of the FC, pH, T, PO4, NO3, Tur and TS water quality parameters of the samples were measured in a one-year period. The NSFWQI of those sub-catchments were calculated based on average value of water quality parameters. Comparing the priorities of vulnerability and overall quality of surface water in studied sub-catchments showed the acceptable efficiency of WRASTIC method in assessing the vulnerability of surface water resources in semi-arid regions. Also, the results showed that among studies sub-catchments, the surface water in sub-catchment no. 1 has the most vulnerability (WRASTIC index = 56) and the worst overall quality (NSFWQI = 51).

The Water-Economy Nexus: a Composite Index Approach to Evaluate Urban Water Vulnerability

Resource scarcity is a driving force behind water conservation and reuse as urban areas seek strategies to adapt to population growth and environmental challenges. Although there are numerous indicators that examine urban water resource and demand characteristics, these approaches do not tie together how aspects like economic health, environmental conditions, and population growth correlate with local water conservation to demonstrate a city’s ability to cope with water resource vulnerability. This research develops a conceptual framework for the Water-Economy Index (WEI) which characterizes social, economic, and environmental dynamics of water reuse and conservation. The application specifically utilizes a principal component analysis (PCA) to evaluate how hydro-economic indicators (including water demand intensity, demand for recycled water, economic productivity of water, unemployment, and allocations of water resources) are correlated and can impact sustainability goals. The PCA method aggregates indicators into three groups: socio-economic, water allocation, and socio-environmental indicators. The most influential indicators within each group are economic productivity of water, wastewater reuse, and consumptive water demand, respectively. The WEI ranks of 49 cities are compared to identify shared traits across individual indicators and to demonstrate the application of the WEI for benchmarking. The results provide insight into the complex relationship between the characteristics of an urban area’s water demand and socio-economic performance.

Hydrogeological research in the Ordesa and Monte Perdido National Park (Huesca, Spain)

The National Park of Ordesa and Monte Perdido (PNOMP) is the largest mountainous limestone massif of Western Europe. It has the highest altitude karst of the whole Europe. Groundwater is essential for the genesis, development and evolution of the park. The spatial distribution of recharge infiltration capacity is obtained by using the APLIS method. Additionally, a preliminary estimation of recharge is obtained by using the HBV and Visual Balan codes. The values of average surface runoff, evapotranspiration and recharge for the whole Paleocene-Eocene aquifer in the park are respectively about 160, 360 and 1227 mm/yr, or 10, 20 and 70% of yearly precipitation. Average recharge ranges between 72 and 77% of yearly average precipitation. This highlights the high vulnerability of water resources of PNOMP to possible climate and global change, according to surface and deep karstification and the snow cover during several months a year. Water is mainly of the calcium bicarbonate and calcium-magnesium bicarbonate types. There is a dominant process of calcite dissolution, which is consistent with the carbonate nature of the most abundant materials in the park (Upper Cretaceous and Lower Paleocene Eocene). Other observed hydrogeochemical processes are anhydrite and/or gypsum dissolution, as well as a possible incongruent dissolution of dolomite in the Ordesa Valley. Water stable isotopes show that the fronts that produce the greatest precipitations come from the Atlantic Ocean. In autumn, winter and spring there is a deuterium excess in the recharge water which is assumed to be related with diurnal snow sublimation and night water vapour condensation over the snow pack. The recharge elevation zone is located between 1950 and 2600 m asl, and most of the sampled springs show short transit times, between 1 and 4 years, although one of the springs (Fuen dero Baño) shows the influence of a slowly changing regional groundwater flow system.

Assessing the Efficiency of WRASTIC Method in Determining the Vulnerability of Surface Water Resources in Semi-Arid Region Using the NSFWQI

In this study, the WRASTIC method was used to assess the surface water vulnerability in sub-catchments of Kivi Dam's watershed which is located in the north-east of Iran using remote sensing and GIS techniques. Monthly change of the FC, pH, T, PO4, NO3, Tur and TS water quality parameters of the samples were measured in a one-year period. The NSFWQI of those sub-catchments were calculated based on average value of water quality parameters. Comparing the priorities of vulnerability and overall quality of surface water in studied sub-catchments showed the acceptable efficiency of WRASTIC method in assessing the vulnerability of surface water resources in semi-arid regions. Also, the results showed that among studies sub-catchments, the surface water in sub-catchment no. 1 has the most vulnerability (WRASTIC index = 56) and the worst overall quality (NSFWQI = 51).

Phytoplankton communities in the crater lakes of western Uganda, and their indicator species in relation to lake trophic status

Abstract The freshwater crater lakes of western Uganda represent an important natural resource for the region’s rural communities, but their capacity to provide drinking-quality water and other ecosystem services is being threatened by rapidly intensifying human activity within their catchments. This study investigated the relationship between the composition of pelagic phytoplankton communities in these lakes and their trophic status, to assess how phytoplankton surveys with recognition of indicator species can assist in the assessment of water-resource vulnerability to human impact. For this purpose we analyzed 70 phytoplankton samples with linked environmental data from 26 crater lakes spanning the entire regional gradients of primary productivity and land-use intensity, with each lake sampled two to four times and during both dry and rainy seasons. At this equatorial location, nutrient concentrations and phytoplankton biomass (measured as the concentration of chlorophyll-a) showed no consistent seasonal pattern. In total we recorded 118 phytoplankton taxa from 72 genera, and from 20 to 54 taxa per lake. The phytoplankton community of most lakes and in most seasons was dominated by cyanobacteria (on average 78% of total cell counts) followed by green algae (17%) and diatoms (4%); euglenophytes, dinoflagellates, chrysophytes and cryptophytes together contributed less than 1% on average. Many species were found to have a wide distribution along the productivity gradient, which complicated characterization of phytoplankton communities typical of different trophic states. Cluster analysis revealed four groups of samples, of which two broadly represented the least and most highly productive lakes. The two other groups comprised a mixture of lakes with intermediate productivity, suggesting that phytoplankton composition in these lakes is structured by other factors in addition to nutrient availability. In total 25 taxa displayed a significant association with one of these groups, but only 12 of them can be considered robust indicators of a particular trophic level; among these, the cyanobacteria Planktolyngbya limnetica and Microcystis aeruginosa qualify as strong indicator species for lakes with low and high productivity, respectively. Based on the distributional turnover between indicator species, we propose that the fresh Ugandan crater lakes comprise four trophic levels, of which the boundaries are situated higher up the chlorophyll-a gradient than those between the four classic trophic levels defined for temperate-region lakes. For practical use, Ugandan crater lakes with a chlorophyll-a concentration up to 6 µg/L can be defined as oligotrophic; similarly, we situate the mesotrophic/eutrophic boundary at ca 20 µg/L, and the eutrophic/hypertrophic boundary at ca 60 µg/L.

Critical Review of Adaptation Measures to Reduce the Vulnerability of European Drinking Water Resources to the Pressures of Climate Change.

One of the consequences of the generally agreed rise of global temperatures, furtherly exacerbated by the growth of water demand caused by the needs of a growing population, is an increase of areas with water stress. This will imply and in part is already implying, an always greater imbalance between water (and in particular drinking water) demand and supply. These issues are among those investigated by the "Adapting Drinking Water resources to the Impacts of Climate change in Europe" (ADWICE) project that had, among its main goals, the identification of priority adaptation measures aimed at reducing drinking water vulnerability to the pressures of a changing climate. In this paper these adaptation measures are described, with special attention given to their associated European water policy context. The complexity of designing and implementing such adaptation measures will benefit from integrating drinking water concerns with wider water management, within a framework able to facilitate the necessary complex collaborations between various actors involved in the different scales of the decision-making arena and to develop an effective science policy interfacing mechanism. Last, but not least, because drinking water is commonly considered by stakeholders and citizens to be a public service, drinking water managers should enable their involvement in the adaptation decision-making process, to ensure their acceptance and cooperation and to prevent conflicts.

Hydrological Responses of Headwater Basins to Monthly Perturbed Climate in the North American Cordillera

Abstract How mountain hydrology at different elevations will respond to climate change is a challenging question of great importance to assessing changing water resources. Here, three North American Cordilleran snow-dominated basins—Wolf Creek, Yukon; Marmot Creek, Alberta; and Reynolds Mountain East, Idaho—each with good meteorological and hydrological records, were modeled using the physically based, spatially distributed Cold Regions Hydrological Model. Model performance was verified using field observations and found adequate for diagnostic analysis. To diagnose the effects of future climate, the monthly temperature and precipitation changes projected for the future by 11 regional climate models for the mid-twenty-first century were added to the observed meteorological time series. The modeled future was warmer and wetter, increasing the rainfall fraction of precipitation and shifting all three basins toward rainfall–runoff hydrology. This shift was largest at lower elevations and in the relatively warmer Reynolds Mountain East. In the warmer future, there was decreased blowing snow transport, snow interception and sublimation, peak snow accumulation, and melt rates, and increased evapotranspiration and the duration of the snow-free season. Annual runoff in these basins did not change despite precipitation increases, warming, and an increased prominence of rainfall over snowfall. Reduced snow sublimation offset reduced snowfall amounts, and increased evapotranspiration offset increased rainfall amounts. The hydrological uncertainty due to variation among climate models was greater than the predicted hydrological changes. While the results of this study can be used to assess the vulnerability and resiliency of water resources that are dependent on mountain snow, stakeholders and water managers must make decisions under considerable uncertainty, which this paper illustrates.

Assessing the Effectiveness of the WFD as a Tool to Address Different Levels of Water Scarcity Based on Two Case Studies of the Mediterranean Region

Despite being a natural phenomenon, water scarcity is, to a great extent, human-induced, particularly affected by climate change and by the increased water resources vulnerability. The Water Framework Directive (WFD), an ‘umbrella’ directive that aims to provide holistic approaches to the management of water resources and is supported by a number of Communication documents on water scarcity, requires for prompt responses to ensure ‘healthy’ water bodies of good ecological status. The current paper presents a multidisciplinary approach, developed and engaged within the Globaqua Project, to provide an assessment of the main challenges towards addressing water scarcity with emphasis on the climate change projections, in two Mediterranean regions. The current paper attempts to critically assess the effectiveness of the WFD as a tool to address water scarcity and increase sustainability in resource use. Criticism lies on the fact that the WFD does not directly refer to it, still, water scarcity is recognized as a factor that increases stress on water resources and deteriorates their status. In addition, the Program of Measures (PoMs) within the WFD clearly contribute to reducing vulnerability of water resources and to ensure current and future water use, also under the impact of the projected climate change.

Offshore Pumping Impacts Onshore Groundwater Resources and Land Subsidence

AbstractFreshened groundwater exists offshore along many coastlines worldwide. Pumping of these offshore resources has been proposed for more efficient oil production as well as drinking and agriculture. Although pumping can occur tens to hundreds of kilometers offshore, these activities may threaten connected onshore aquifer systems. We conducted numerical simulations of variable‐density groundwater flow and salt transport in coastal aquifers with different geologic structure subject to offshore pumping to assess potential impacts. Results show that offshore pumping can diminish both onshore groundwater availability and submarine groundwater discharge and can cause widespread land subsidence. Heterogeneity increases water resource vulnerability relative to equivalent homogeneous and layered systems and exacerbates the magnitude of land subsidence. More continuous geologic structure causes propagation of maximum subsidence farther landward. This work suggests that coastal aquifers may be vulnerable to offshore pumping activities and that these effects should be considered in feasibility assessments for offshore drilling.

Standardised Precipitation Valuation of Water Resources Vulnerability to Climate Variability on the Bui Plateau, Northwest Cameroon

Sensitivity of water resources to hydro-climatic variations is a key constraint to development. Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) was employed to assess vulnerability of water resources to climate variability by computing mean annual rainfall for five stations with the least record of 20 years. SPI values in Bui range from -0.1 to -0.45. These extreme conditions have led to severe water shortages. Water output was collected from Kumbo Water Authority and Camerounais Des Eaux (Jakiri). Population perceptions on changing water levels and reliability were captured through 200 questionnaires administered across six hydrological basins. Results revealed that springs, streams, pipe-borne water, wells/boreholes have reduced significantly. Respondents also perceived that rainfall has become unreliable because of inconsistent onset of first rains and cessation of the wet season. This calls for enhancement of existing water resources and protection of watersheds to ensure sustainability.

Prioritizing the Importance of the Factors Related to the Vulnerability of Agricultural Water Resources and Infra-structures to Climate Change

Prioritizing the Importance of the Factors Related to the Vulnerability of Agricultural Water Resources and Infra-structures to Climate Change

Analysis of Water Resources Vulnerability Assessment Tools

Analysis of Water Resources Vulnerability Assessment Tools

Assessing Water Resources Vulnerability by Using a Rough Set Cloud Model: A Case Study of the Huai River Basin, China.

Assessing water resources vulnerability is the foundation of local water resources management. However, as one of the major water systems in China, there is no existing evaluation index system that can effectively assess water resource vulnerability for the Huai River basin. To address this issue, we identified key vulnerability factors, constructed an evaluation index system, and applied such system to evaluate water resources vulnerability for the Huai River basin empirically in this paper. Specifically, our evaluation index system consists of 18 indexes selected from three different aspects: water shortage, water pollution, and water-related natural disaster. Then, the improved blind deletion rough set method was used to reduce the size of the evaluation index while keep the evaluation power. In addition, the improved conditional information entropy rough set method was employed to calculate the weights of evaluation indexes. Based on the reduced index system and calculated weights, a rough set cloud model was applied to carry out the vulnerability evaluation. The empirical results show that the Huai River basin water resources were under severe vulnerability conditions for most of the time between 2000 and 2016, and the Most Stringent Water Resources Management System (MS-WRMS) established in 2012 did not work effectively as expected.

Climate change impacts on hydrological services in southern California

Water availability is one of the most critical issues facing southern California. Consequently, the role and management of intact watersheds on public lands that supply water are paramount. We undertake the first regional study of climate impacts on hydrological services (runoff, recharge, and climatic water deficit) across the four national forests of southern California—the Angeles, Los Padres, Cleveland and San Bernardino. We assess the exposure, sensitivity, and vulnerability of water resources by comparing current conditions (1981–2010) to mid-century (2040–2069) and end-of-century (2070–2099) using three general circulation models (GCMs) under RCP8.5. Half of the study area is projected to exceed 2015’s drought conditions in 10%–30% of the years between now and end-of-century under the moderate GCM (CCSM4), and one-third of the area is projected to exceed 2015 in 50% of the years under the hotter, drier projection (MIROC-ESM). Under a moderate projection, mean runoff increased by 1.2× by the end-of-century for three of the national forests, while mean recharge decreased by 0.9× across all forests. Projected end-of-century climatic water deficit increased on average 1.1× across the four forests. We assessed the vulnerability of watersheds by comparing the projected mean change between current and future climates with the current inter-annual variability using three categories of vulnerability. Under the moderate projection, one-third of the 385 watersheds were moderately vulnerable to changes in runoff and recharge (+/−0.2 to +/−1× the standard deviation of current inter-annual variability) and ∼12 watersheds were highly vulnerable, suggesting an era of new hydrological conditions by the end-of-century. Half of the Forest Service’s priority management watersheds had moderate or high vulnerability for runoff and recharge. Spatial data on hydrological services and their vulnerability can directly assist in climate-smart planning, allowing tradeoffs to be assessed between proposed management actions and their effect on hydrological services.

Enhancing a community-based water resource tool for assessing environmental change: the arctic water resources vulnerability index revisited

People in the Arctic and sub-Arctic continue to face uncertainty in their livelihoods as they contend with environmental variability and change operating at multiple scales. The arctic water resources vulnerability index (AWRVI) was proposed as a tool that arctic communities could use to assess their susceptibility to both changing biophysical conditions affecting their water resources and socioeconomic conditions measuring their ability to respond to such changes. The application of AWRVI in six communities in Northwest Alaska and one in Southcentral Alaska is explored with a view to enhancing the tool as an adaptive capacity index, and a set of AWRVI indicators and parameters was refined by modifying the suite of biophysical measures and societal capacities to enhance the ability of the tool to gauge community adaptive capacity, and incorporate the use of more diverse datasets. A critical update was the development of an indicator for change in timing of precipitation in response to advice from Alaskan practitioners and scientists. Index scores based on the updated AWRVI are compared with the original AWRVI for the seven communities and show small to modest changes in the adaptive capacity scores. The role of the updated AWRVI is discussed as a tool to assist communities as they attempt to understand, negotiate, and reconcile adaptation measures for environmental change at local scales, potentially providing a guide for communities to target adaptive responses.

Using the Arctic water resources vulnerability index in assessing and responding to environmental change in Alaskan communities

Adaptation to environmental change has become a necessity and a norm for many Arctic communities. We examine whether the adaptive capacity varies in different communities in Alaska with contrasting ecologies and socio-economic systems using the Arctic Water Resources Vulnerability Index (AWRVI). We applied the index to six communities in three distinct regions of Alaska with respect to water resources: Nuiqsut in Northern Alaska, Cooper Landing, Sterling, Soldotna and Kenai in the Kenai River watershed of Southcentral Alaska and Juneau in Southeast Alaska. We modified the AWRVI tool to accommodate the breadth of physical and social conditions in these communities. Using the AWRVI, we measured the adaptive capacity of the communities, which reflect greater vulnerability in Nuiqsut in Northern Alaska due to limitations in water supply and greater surrounding development that could pollute water in their food-shed. The overall adaptive capacities of the two communities that are more mountainous, Cooper Landing and Juneau are similar, as are Sterling, Soldotna and Kenai’s, which are in flatter terrain along the Kenai River. However, the physical and social sub-indices of the communities in the Kenai River watershed and Juneau differ. We discuss actions each community could take to improve their respective capacity to respond to anticipated change.