Vulnerability Of Forest Ecosystems Research Articles

Vulnerability assessment of forest ecosystem based on exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity in the Valmiki Tiger Reserve, India: A geospatial analysis

Forests are becoming increasingly vulnerable to a range of climatic and non-climatic stressors. Thus, the forest vulnerability assessment is crucial for identifying potential risks and enhancing forest resilience. The present study attempts to explore the forest vulnerability in the protected area of Valmiki Tiger Reserve (VTR), India. A forest ecosystem vulnerability index (FEVI) was constructed using its three components (exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity) and site-specific indicators. Exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity indices were integrated to prepare the forest vulnerability map. The map was validated through the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) and confusion metrics and found reliable. The results revealed that of the total area of the Reserve, the largest area was found under moderate vulnerability (48.36%), followed by high vulnerability (32.28%) and low vulnerability (19.36%). Madanpur, Raghia, and the lower part of Harnatanr and Chiutaha were identified as the most vulnerable ranges in the VTR. High exposure, high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity were attributed to high forest vulnerability in the VTR. Thus, continuous monitoring and devising effective forest management strategies are essential for reducing vulnerability and enhancing the resilience of the VTR. Urgent policy interventions are also required for promoting ecotourism and minimizing the dependency of communities on forest. The systematic framework employed in the present study may be applied to diverse geographical regions for identifying vulnerable sites and suggesting effective conservation and restoration strategies.

Directions For Sustainable Development of Forestry with Low Greenhouse Gas Emissions

In the context of increasing anthropogenic pressure, climate-smart forestry is one of the approaches to achieving the goals of its sustainable development. The basic component of sustainable development of forestry is movement in accordance with the trajectory of scientific and technological development of the industry. The work analyzed the scientific research of scientists, as a result of which the directions of advanced research carried out for the sustainable development of forestry with low greenhouse gas emissions were established. Next, in the identified areas, a predictive expert-analytical assessment of the prospects for technologies for sustainable development of forestry in the Russian Federation with low greenhouse gas emissions was carried out. It has been proven that the highest priority technologies include technologies for assessing the vulnerability of forest ecosystems to climate change and technologies for increasing the productivity of the depositing capacity of forest ecosystems. The overall result of the bibliometric study confirms the high scientific interest in conducting research on the identified priority technologies.

Scenario Approach to Adaptation of Forest Ecosystems in the Russian Federation under Climate Change

Correlations between the quantitative values of abiotic factors associated with climate change and the criteria for the vulnerability of forest ecosystems for 24 model subjects of the Russian Federation have been established. A high degree of closeness of the relationship between climatic parameters and forest fires was revealed for forest ecosystems in the Center and the South of Russia, as well as Eastern Siberia. Using a matrix model for positioning the adaptive potential of a single regional forest ecosystem, clusters with the most vulnerable to climate change groups of regional forest ecosystems were identified. The application of the developed methodology for the analysis of regional complexes of forest ecosystems made it possible to establish that there is a shift in the indicators of their adaptive potential to the lower limit of their sustainability (Arkhangelsk, Leningrad, Voronezh, Tyumen, Irkutsk oblasts, Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug, Khabarovsk krai). Based on the study and clustering of model federal subjects according to the level of adaptive potential, differentiation of management decisions and forestry measures for enlarged territorial objects, including various federal subjects, was carried out in order to maintain and strengthen the adaptive potential of forest ecosystems. Measures for adapting forest ecosystems to climate change can be implemented in the context of three scenarios: forest management with elements of reactive adaptation to climate change for stable forest ecosystems, implementation of the forestry adaptation strategy to climate change for unstable forest ecosystems and restoration and maintenance of ecosystem functions of forests for degrading forest ecosystems.

Drought resilience of Mongolian Scotch pine (Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica) at the southernmost edge of its natural distribution: A comparison of natural forests and plantations

Global warming has increased the frequency and intensity of climatic drought events, intensifying the vulnerability of forest ecosystems, especially at the marginal habitats. The resilience of marginal forests to drought stress is a critical issue of sustainable forest management. In this study, the post-drought resilience of natural and planted populations of Mongolian Scotch pine (Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica), the most widely planted conifers in the semiarid temperate China, was compared at the southernmost of the species’ natural range. Three drought events in this region were identified in time series of SPEI data during last 40 years. i.e. in 1986–1987, 2003–2004, and 2007–2008. We calculated the individual-level detrended Basal Area Index before, during, and after the three drought events, and compared the resistance (Rt), recovery (Rc), and resilience (Rs) of natural and planted populations to the droughts. The results showed a negative relationship between Rt and Rc. Both natural and planted Mongolian Scotch pine forests showed positive Rs and could revert to their pre-drought growth levels within 3 years after the most severe drought. Nevertheless, we found a more stable Rs in natural forests than plantations to drought events of different severities, and a high pre-drought growth could weaken the Rs for both natural forests and plantations. The pre- and post-drought precipitation levels were both critical for the Rt and Rc of Mongolian Scotch pine to a drought. Forest age significantly reduced Rs and population density weakened Rc in natural forests. Our results revealed the joint influence of climate, site, and population characteristics on the resilience components of Mongolian Scotch pine to drought stress in the marginal habitats, which provided references for plantation planning and sustainable forest management in arid regions.

On the degradation of forest ecosystems by extreme events: Statistical Model Checking of a hybrid model

In this paper, we study the vulnerability of forest ecosystems perturbed by extreme events, such as those arising from climate change. To investigate the complex interactions between the biological dynamics of the forest and the climatic activity, we construct an original hybrid model, obtained by coupling a continuous reaction–diffusion system, which describes the spatio-temporal dynamics of the forest ecosystem, with a discrete probabilistic process, which models the possible occurrences of extreme events. Properties of ecological interest are considered: invariance of the persistence equilibrium, attraction to the extinction equilibrium and emergence of degraded states. Those properties of the hybrid model are verified through an extension of the Statistical Model Checking framework. We establish the existence of a threshold above which the persistence equilibrium of the forest ecosystem is compromised and give a numerical assessment of this threshold in terms of the probability and intensity of extreme events. We also present non-trivial parameter conditions for which the forest ecosystem converges to a degraded savanna-like state.

Operationalizing forest‐assisted migration in the context of climate change adaptation: Examples from the eastern USA

AbstractThere is increasing momentum to implement conservation and management approaches that adapt forests to climate change so as to sustain ecosystem functions. These range from actions designed to increase the resistance of current composition and structure to negative impacts to those designed to transition forests to substantially different characteristics. A component of many adaptation approaches will likely include assisted migration of future climate‐adapted tree species or genotypes. While forest‐assisted migration (FAM) has been discussed conceptually and examined experimentally for almost a decade, operationalizing FAM (i.e., routine use in forest conservation and management projects) lags behind the acceptance of the need for climate adaptation. As the vulnerability of forest ecosystems in climate change increases, FAM may need to become an integral management tool to reduce long‐term risks to ecosystem function, despite real and perceived barriers for its implementation. Here we discuss the concept of operational‐scale FAM and why it remains a controversial, not yet widely adopted component of climate adaptation. We present three case studies of operational‐scale FAM to illustrate how the practice can be approached pragmatically within an adaptation framework despite the barriers to acceptance. Finally, we discuss a path toward advancing the wide use of operational‐scale FAM.

Response of Soil Moisture to Long-Duration Rainstorms in Three Forest Stands in Mountainous Areas of North China

Rainfall is one of the core components of the water cycle in terrestrial ecosystems and is closely related to hydrothermal balance, plant and animal growth, and stability of the whole ecosystem. Long-duration rainstorms can alter the soil structure of forest ecosystems and affect the spatial distribution of soil moisture, thus affecting the water supply from the soil to trees and being one of the factors that increase the vulnerability of forest ecosystems. In recent years, changes in rainfall patterns have normalized prolonged heavy rainfall in the mountainous areas of North China. However, there are few reports on the response of soil water at different depths to historically long rainstorms in forested areas. By quantifying the relationship between precipitation characteristics and soil water, the soil water transport patterns of Platycladus orientalis (PO), Quercus variabilis (QV) and Pinus tabuliformis (PT) during the long-duration rainstorms of 21–22 July 2012 were evaluated separately, and the roles of different plants in response to the historically long rainstorm were determined. The results showed that (1) the response of different forest stands to rainfall had a lag. Among them, the soil water of PO and PT were less affected by rainfall and could maintain a relatively stable state. (2) The soil moisture transport trend of PO was significantly greater than that of other vegetation zones and covered the whole process of rainfall. Under the three typical vegetation covers, there was a continuous zero-flux plane in the soil at each observed depth (the direction of soil moisture flow is more stable over the rainfall period), but there was no regular transport trend. (3) The root system was an important factor, influencing the differences in soil moisture response of the three vegetation types. QV had a higher average effective water recharge rate than lateral cypress and oleander and could better utilize the water recharge from storm water.

Predicting the potential distribution of Dactylorhiza hatagirea (D. Don) Soo-an important medicinal orchid in the West Himalaya, under multiple climate change scenarios.

Climate variability coupled with anthropogenic pressures is the most critical driver in the Himalayan region for forest ecosystem vulnerability. Dactylorhiza hatagirea (D.Don) Soo is an important yet highly threatened medicinal orchid from the Himalayan region. Poor regenerative power and growing demand have resulted in the steep decline of its natural habitats populations. The present study aims to identify the habitat suitability of D. hatagirea in the Western Himalaya using the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt). The community climate system model (CCSM ver. 4) based on representative concentration pathways (RCPs) was used to determine suitable future areas. Sixteen least correlated (< 0.8) bioclimatic, topographical and geomorphic variables were used to construct the species climatic niche. The dominant contributing variables were elevation (34.85%) followed by precipitation of the coldest quarter (23.04%), soil type (8.77%), land use land cover (8.26%), mean annual temperature (5.51%), and temperature seasonality (5.11%). Compared to the present distribution, habitat suitability under future projection, i.e., RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 (2050 and 2070), was found to shift to higher elevation towards the northwest direction, while lower altitudes will invariably be less suitable. Further, as compared to the current distribution, the climatic niche space of the species is expected to expand in between11.41-22.13% in the near future. High habitats suitability areas are mainly concentrated in the forest range like Dharchula and Munsyari range, Pindar valley, Kedarnath Wildlife Sanctuary, West of Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve, and Uttarkashi forest division. The present study delineated the fundamental niche baseline map of D. hatagirea in the Western Himalayas and highlighted regions/areas where conservation and management strategies should be intensified in the next 50 years. In addition, as the species is commercially exploited illegally, the information gathered is essential for conservationists and planners who protect the species at the regional levels.

Vulnerability of forest ecosystems under the impact of climate change (case study Southeast Republic of Moldova

The forest ecosystems in the South-Eastern part of the country are distinguished by rich biological diversity, with rare species, located at the limit of their natural distribution area, induced by the presence of the territory at the contact of several biogeographical regions. Under the impact of current environmental changes, the sensitivity of forest ecosystems to climate change directly related to their ability to respond / adapt to these changes. The concomitant use of the eco-climatic indices De Martonne Aridity Index (IM) and the Ellenberg Coefficient (EQ) give the estimation of the exposure of tree mesophilic species to the aridization of the regional climate. It established that the forest ecosystems in the region have a high level of vulnerability to climate aridity, with tendencies towards a very high level of vulnerability - conditions that induce a lasting deficit in humidity and, respectively, forest degradation. Accelerated climate change trends will modify the sensitivity of forest species to water scarcity (increased risk), changes in the compositional structure of those ecosystems and chorological movements of species (from mesophilous deciduous forests in the temperate zone will move to climatic conditions specific to the growth and development of arid oak forests, with thermophilic species). We consider that the results are of practical interest in the sustainable management of the forestry sector.

A Review of Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability and Resilience: Implications for the Rocky Desertification Control

With a changing climate and socio-economic development, ecological problems are increasingly serious, research on ecosystem vulnerability and ecological resilience has become a hot topic of study for various institutions. Forests, the “lungs of the earth”, have also been damaged to varying degrees. In recent years, scholars have conducted numerous studies on the vulnerability and resilience of forest ecosystems, but there is a lack of a systematic elaboration of them. The results of a statistical analysis of 217 related documents show: (1) the number of studies published rises wave upon wave in time series, which indicates that this area of study is still at the stage of rising; (2) the research content is concentrated in four dimensions—ecosystem vulnerability assessment, ecosystem vulnerability model prediction, ecological resilience, and management strategies—among which the ecosystem vulnerability assessment research content mainly discusses the evaluation methods and models; (3) the research areas are mainly concentrated in China and the United States, with different degrees of distribution in European countries; and (4) the research institutions are mainly the educational institutions and forestry bureaus in various countries. In addition, this paper also reveals the frontier theory of forest ecosystem vulnerability and resilience research from three aspects—theoretical research, index system, and technical methods—puts forward the problems of current research, and suggests that a universally applicable framework for forest ecosystem vulnerability and resilience research should be built in the future, and theoretical research should be strengthened to comprehensively understand the characteristics of forest ecosystems so that sustainable management strategies can be proposed according to local conditions.

Vulnerability assessments of mountain forest ecosystems: A global synthesis

The present study synthesizes existing literature on Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability (FEV) assessments across the world's mountain regions. The synthesis reveals a globally substantial number of studies are available on FEV assessment. However, such studies are limited in the mountain regions. Of the total 75 peer-reviewed research papers considered for synthesis, there are 61 (81.32%) studies specific to the country, 6 (8%) to continental, 4 (5.34%) to global scales, and the remaining 4 (5.34%) to local. The study results reveal that most assessments are model-based projections, where complex topography of mountains creates uncertainty for climate projections in limited analyses of socio-ecological indicators. Only a few studies (12%) have considered socio-ecological and ground-based data, which are primarily required for adaptation and management planning at the local level. Overall synthesis of literature provided vital information on climate change impacts and suggested management and adaptation plans but was far from a broad reality for the future of the mountain ecosystem under the paradox of climate change. Scales, targets, indicators, and assessment approaches varied widely and focused on only a subset of resources. We recommend forest managers should critically examine the scale, indicators, methods, and targets when planning forest vulnerability assessments. This synthesis of FEV assessment will help suggest the best approaches and indicators given the limited number of model studies in the mountain area for decision and policy making for forest resource management.

Do People Understand and Observe the Effects of Climate Crisis on Forests? The Case Study of Cyprus

Recent reports stress the vulnerability of forest ecosystems in the European Union (EU), especially in the south. Cyprus is an island in the south of EU and the eastern of the Mediterranean Sea. While Cyprus’ vulnerability is stressed, Cyprus was included in the worst-performing countries regarding EU carbon emission’s targets of 2020. For mitigating climate change, Cyprus could benefit for tailored education and improved policy making. This study analyses the perceptions of the Cypriot residents about climate change and forest degradation aiming (1) to gain a better understanding of whether Cypriot residents understand its importance, (2) to understand if the general public is able to observe the changes noted in the literature, (3) to understand how perceptions are differentiated across different demographic categories, and (4) to derive correlations between demographic data and perceptions. This is a quantitative study; a questionnaire was used as a tool and the responses received were 416. It was highlighted that 65.62% of the participants stated that they noticed moderate to very much degradation of Cypriot coniferous forests. A potential degradation reason was written down by 150 people, of whom 31.33% referred to tree die-back, while many stated decreased soil moisture and difficulty in regeneration. All these reasons of degradation were either stated or suspected in the literature. Additionally, the demographic analysis showed that there may be an association between employability and beliefs/observations about climate change. The results of the research could be used for tailored education, further research, and promoting environmentally friendly policies. This will support Cyprus and other countries in reaching their Green Deal targets and, consequently, mitigate the severe effects of climate change.

Quantifying the Variability of Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability in the Largest Water Tower Region Globally.

Forests are critical ecosystems for environmental regulation and ecological security maintenance, especially at high altitudes that exhibit sensitivity to climate change and human activities. The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau—the world’s largest water tower region—has been breeding many large rivers in Asia where forests play important roles in water regulation and water quality improvement. However, the vulnerability of these forest ecosystems at the regional scale is still largely unknown. Therefore, the aim of this research is to quantitatively assess the temporal–spatial variability of forest vulnerability on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau to illustrate the capacity of forests to withstand disturbances. Geographic information system (GIS) and the spatial principal component analysis (SPCA) were used to develop a forest vulnerable index (FVI) to assess the vulnerability of forest ecosystems. This research incorporates 15 factors covering the natural context, environmental disturbances, and socioeconomic impact. Results indicate that the measure of vulnerability was unevenly distributed spatially across the study area, and the whole trend has intensified since 2000. The three factors that contribute the most to the vulnerability of natural contexts, environmental disturbances, and human impacts are slope aspect, landslides, and the distance to the farmland, respectively. The vulnerability is higher in forest areas with lower altitudes, steeper slopes, and southerly directions. These evaluation results can be helpful for forest management in high altitude water tower regions in the forms of forest conservation or restoration planning and implementation towards sustainable development goals.

Developing drought stress index for monitoring Pinus densiflora diebacks in Korea

BackgroundThe phenomenon of tree dieback in forest ecosystems around the world, which is known to be associated with high temperatures that occur simultaneously with drought, has received much attention. Korea is experiencing a rapid rise in temperature relative to other regions. Particularly in the growth of evergreen conifers, temperature increases in winter and spring can have great influence. In recent years, there have been reports of group dieback of Pinus densiflora trees in Korea, and many studies are being conducted to identify the causes. However, research on techniques to diagnose and monitor drought stress in forest ecosystems on local and regional scales has been lacking.ResultsIn this study, we developed and evaluated an index to identify drought and high-temperature vulnerability in Pinus densiflora forests. We found the Drought Stress Index (DSI) that we developed to be effective in generally assessing the drought-reactive physiology of trees. During 2001–2016, in Korea, we refined the index and produced DSI data from a 1 × 1-km unit grid spanning the entire country. We found that the DSI data correlated with the event data of Pinus densiflora mass dieback compiled in this study. The average DSI value at times of occurrence of Pinus densiflora group dieback was 0.6, which was notably higher than during times of nonoccurrence.ConclusionsOur combination of the Standard Precipitation Index and growing degree days evolved and short- and long-term effects into a new index by which we found meaningful results using dieback event data. Topographical and biological factors and climate data should be considered to improve the DSI. This study serves as the first step in developing an even more robust index to monitor the vulnerability of forest ecosystems in Korea.

Continental-scale tree-ring-based projection of Douglas-fir growth: Testing the limits of space-for-time substitution.

A central challenge in global change research is the projection of the future behavior of a system based upon past observations. Tree-ring data have been used increasingly over the last decade to project tree growth and forest ecosystem vulnerability under future climate conditions. But how can the response of tree growth to past climate variation predict the future, when the future does not look like the past? Space-for-time substitution (SFTS) is one way to overcome the problem of extrapolation: the response at a given location in a warmer future is assumed to follow the response at a warmer location today. Here we evaluated an SFTS approach to projecting future growth of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii), a species that occupies an exceptionally large environmental space in North America. We fit a hierarchical mixed-effects model to capture ring-width variability in response to spatial and temporal variation in climate. We found opposing gradients for productivity and climate sensitivity with highest growth rates and weakest response to interannual climate variation in the mesic coastal part of Douglas-fir's range; narrower rings and stronger climate sensitivity occurred across the semi-arid interior. Ring-width response to spatial versus temporal temperature variation was opposite in sign, suggesting that spatial variation in productivity, caused by local adaptation and other slow processes, cannot be used to anticipate changes in productivity caused by rapid climate change. We thus substituted only climate sensitivities when projecting future tree growth. Growth declines were projected across much of Douglas-fir's distribution, with largest relative decreases in the semiarid U.S. Interior West and smallest in the mesic Pacific Northwest. We further highlight the strengths of mixed-effects modeling for reviving a conceptual cornerstone of dendroecology, Cook's 1987 aggregate growth model, and the great potential to use tree-ring networks and results as a calibration target for next-generation vegetation models.

Vulnerability of forest ecosystems to fire in the French Alps

Forest fires are expected to be more frequent and more intense with climate change, including in temperate and mountain forest ecosystems. In the Alps, forest vulnerability to fire resulting from interactions between climate, fuel types, vegetation structure and tree resistance to fire is little understood. This paper aims at identifying trends in the vulnerability of Alpine forest ecosystems to fire at different scales (tree species, stand level and biogeographic level) and according to three different climatic conditions (cold season, average summer and extremely dry summer). To explore Alpine forest vulnerability to fire, we used surface fuel measurements, forest inventory and fire weather data to simulate fire behaviour and ultimately post-fire tree mortality across 4438 forest plots in the French Alps. The results showed that cold season fires (about 50% of the fires in the French Alps) have a limited impact except on low-elevation forests of the Southern Alps (mainly Oak, Scots pine). In average summer conditions, mixed and broadleaved forests of low elevations suffer the highest mortality rates (up to 75% in coppices). Finally, summer fires occurring in extremely dry conditions promote high mortality across all forest communities. Lowest mortality rates were observed in high forest stands composed of tree species presenting adaptation to surface fires (e.g. thick bark, high canopy) such as Larch forests of the internal Alps. This study provides insights on the vulnerability of the main tree species and forest ecosystems of the French Alps useful for the adaptation of forest management practices to climate changes.

Decline and dieback of cork oak (Quercus suber L.) forests in the Mediterranean basin: a case study of Kroumirie, Northwest Tunisia

Assessing the vulnerability of forest ecosystems in the climate change context is a challenging task as the mechanisms that determine this vulnerability cannot be directly observed. Based on the ecological interrelationships between forests and climate, the present review focused on providing current information about vulnerability assessments of cork oak (Quercus suber L.) forests in the Mediterranean basin, especially, in the Kroumirie region (northwest Tunisia), currently under historic extreme drought conditions. From comparing recent findings in this region, we synthesized data on cork oak decline and mortality collected during the historic drought years 1988–1995 period. Climate change impacts cork forest decline, with special interest shown in elevated temperatures and drought; cork oak forest regeneration, and the adaptation of the Kroumirie forest to climate change, are reviewed herein. The studied region has been influenced largely by frequent prolonged drought periods, especially from 1988 to 1995. Droughts were found to consistently have a more detrimental impact on the growth and mortality rates of cork oak populations. Cork oak mortality was recorded for up to 63,622 trees. In the future, more research studies and observational data will be needed, which could represent an important key to understand ecosystem processes, and to facilitate the development of better models that project climate change impacts and vulnerability. The study is useful for researchers and forestry decision makers to develop the appropriate strategies to restore and protect ecosystems, and to help anticipate potential future droughts and climate change.

Assessing vulnerability of forest ecosystem in the Indian Western Himalayan region using trends of net primary productivity

The Himalayan ecosystem is one of the sensitive and fragile ecosystems with rich biodiversity that provides major ecosystem services. The study was conducted to measure the extent of vulnerability across forested grids of Uttarakhand—one of the States of Indian Western Himalayan (IWH) region. The forests of the state are exposed to various anthropogenic and natural climatic pressures, thus making them vulnerable. In this paper, we demonstrate how to map vulnerability of forest ecosystem by analyzing variability and trends of net primary productivity (NPP). The vulnerability of the forest ecosystem was evaluated through trends of sensitivity and adaptability of NPP. The sensitivity of a system was considered as the response degree of the system to climatic variability whereas adaptability was considered as the ability to maintain, recover or improve its structure in the face of climatic stresses. In our study, NPP was considered as the receptor of shock and stresses of climatic variability and human disturbances. We discuss the method and results with reference to productivity changes under the influence of changing climate for the forested landscape of a mountainous region. The results have been summarized to rank vulnerability at the level of administrative boundary of governance, i.e. district. Average value of vulnerability for all NPP pixels of forests grids in a district was used to compute the vulnerability at district level. The study will help forest managers in decision making for efficiently allocating resources and to prioritize management options in the identified regions to improve productivity in coming times.

Assessing vulnerability of a forest ecosystem to climate change and variability in the western Mediterranean sub-region of Turkey

Climate change is a real, pressing and significant global problem. The concept of ‘climate change vulnerability’ helps us to better comprehend the cause/effect relationships behind climate change and its impact on human societies, socioeconomic sectors, and physiographical and ecological systems. In this study, multifactorial spatial modelling evaluated the vulnerability of a Mediterranean forest ecosystem to climate change and variability with regard to land degradation. This produced data and developed tools to support better decision-making and management. As a result, the geographical distribution of Environmental Vulnerability Areas (EVAs) of the forest ecosystem is the estimated Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI) values. These revealed that, at current levels of environmental degradation, physical, geographical, policy enforcement, and socioeconomic conditions, the area with a “very low” degree of vulnerability covered mainly the town, its surrounding settlements and agricultural lands found principally over the low, flat travertine plateau and the plains to the east and southeast of the district. The spatial magnitude of the EVAs of the forest ecosystem under current environmental degradation was also determined. This revealed that the EVAs classed as “very low” accounted for 21% of the area of the forest ecosystem, those classed as “low” for 36%, those classed as “medium” for 20%, and those classed as “high” for 24%.

Integrating Science and Management to Assess Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability to Climate Change

We developed the ecosystem vulnerability assessment approach (EVAA) to help inform potential adaptation actions in response to a changing climate. EVAA combines multiple quantitative models and expert elicitation from scientists and land managers. In each of eight assessment areas, a panel of local experts determined potential vulnerability of forest ecosystems to climate change over the next century using EVAA. Vulnerability and uncertainty ratings for forest community types in each assessment area were developed. The vulnerability of individual forest types to climate change varied by region due to regional differences in how climate change is expected to affect system drivers, stressors, and dominant species and the capacity of a forest community to adapt. This assessment process is a straightforward and flexible approach to addressing the key components of vulnerability in a collaborative setting and can easily be applied to a range of forest ecosystems at local to regional scales.