Scenario Approach to Adaptation of Forest Ecosystems in the Russian Federation under Climate Change

Abstract

Correlations between the quantitative values of abiotic factors associated with climate change and the criteria for the vulnerability of forest ecosystems for 24 model subjects of the Russian Federation have been established. A high degree of closeness of the relationship between climatic parameters and forest fires was revealed for forest ecosystems in the Center and the South of Russia, as well as Eastern Siberia. Using a matrix model for positioning the adaptive potential of a single regional forest ecosystem, clusters with the most vulnerable to climate change groups of regional forest ecosystems were identified. The application of the developed methodology for the analysis of regional complexes of forest ecosystems made it possible to establish that there is a shift in the indicators of their adaptive potential to the lower limit of their sustainability (Arkhangelsk, Leningrad, Voronezh, Tyumen, Irkutsk oblasts, Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug, Khabarovsk krai). Based on the study and clustering of model federal subjects according to the level of adaptive potential, differentiation of management decisions and forestry measures for enlarged territorial objects, including various federal subjects, was carried out in order to maintain and strengthen the adaptive potential of forest ecosystems. Measures for adapting forest ecosystems to climate change can be implemented in the context of three scenarios: forest management with elements of reactive adaptation to climate change for stable forest ecosystems, implementation of the forestry adaptation strategy to climate change for unstable forest ecosystems and restoration and maintenance of ecosystem functions of forests for degrading forest ecosystems.