Vulnerability In Africa Research Articles

Breaking barriers, building resilience: Leveraging knowledge to mitigate energy vulnerability in Africa

Addressing energy vulnerability can unlock economic potential and create pathways for inclusive and sustainable development. Knowledge creation and use are essential components of efforts to promote sustainable energy access and support development goals. This paper scrutinizes the effect of knowledge on energy vulnerability in Africa. Using data from 27 countries from 2000 to 2019, findings from feasible generalized least squares, panel-corrected standard errors, and fixed-effects with Driscoll and Kraay (1998) standard errors demonstrate that the three components of knowledge creation and use (education quality, ICT penetration, and innovation) mitigate energy vulnerability in Africa. Moreover, findings from the quantile regression confirm that the effect of knowledge is negative but heterogeneous across the conditional distribution of energy vulnerability. Finally, economic globalization incurs energy vulnerability, while urbanization has a negative and statistically significant effect. Thus, policymakers and governments should actively invest in education and training programs and provide incentives for ICT development and energy innovation to alleviate energy vulnerability in Africa.

Impact of Community-Level Infrastructure on Household Food Insecurity in Africa

Although income levels play a critical role in determining a household's food security status, this alone cannot fully explain the variations in the phenomenon. To fully explore food insecurity, it is essential to consider non-household factors such as social and physical infrastructure, which directly impact people's quality of life. In this study, we used data from rounds 6, 7, and 8 of the Afrobarometer survey conducted between 2014 and 2021 to investigate the relationship between infrastructure deficit and household food insecurity vulnerability in Africa. Our findings from multilevel logistic regression showed that access to social and physical infrastructure can alleviate household food insecurity vulnerability to varying degrees. For instance, having an electricity grid and a public water supply system can reduce the likelihood of food insecurity by 15% and 13%, respectively. Similarly, having a bank and a health clinic in a community can reduce the possibility of food insecurity by 6% and 3%, respectively. These findings revealed that physical infrastructure has a more substantial impact on reducing food insecurity than social infrastructure. Nevertheless, African governments should focus on investing in both types of infrastructure and ensuring that it is distributed fairly and equitably to benefit all.

Retrospecting on resource abundance in leading oil-producing African countries: how valid is the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis in a sectoral composition framework?

Policymakers and authorities in Africa are often concerned about economic growth and stability owing to the long history of socioeconomic problems that have bedeviled the continent for years. However, increasing environmental degradation challenges in recent times beckons for adequate attention considering Africa's vulnerability to climate change and environmental disasters. Thus, the current study examines the illustrious environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis in a sectoral composition framework of fossil resources abundance among leading oil-producing African economies, including Algeria, Nigeria, Angola, and Egypt, using a combination of quantile regression (QR) approach and dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) for data between 1995 and 2016. Based on the empirical results from the study, three main factors significantly increase environmental pollution through CO2 emissions among the countries, namely: fossil energy consumption, income levels, and the shares of the manufacturing sector in the total gross domestic product (GDP). While income growth exacerbates pollution, the negative impacts of the income square were only significant at the lower and mid quantiles of the understudied periods in the QR estimates. Thus, the EKC hypothesis was not convincingly upheld for the countries as its validity demonstrates significant quantile effects. Furthermore, the tripartite causality nexus among real income, resource rent, and share of the service sector in GDP, which is unobserved in the share of the manufacturing sector, reflect the infamous Dutch disease argument among the resource-dependent countries. Hence, to promote environmental sustainability and address resource dependency toward the actualization of SDGs (1, 8, 12, and 13), the study recommends energy portfolios diversification alongside economic diversification.

A novel approach to modeling epidemic vulnerability, applied to Aedes aegypti-vectored diseases in Per\xfa

BackgroundA proactive approach to preventing and responding to emerging infectious diseases is critical to global health security. We present a three-stage approach to modeling the spatial distribution of outbreak vulnerability to Aedes aegypti-vectored diseases in Perú.MethodsExtending a framework developed for modeling hemorrhagic fever vulnerability in Africa, we modeled outbreak vulnerability in three stages: index case potential (stage 1), outbreak receptivity (stage 2), and epidemic potential (stage 3), stratifying scores on season and El Niño events. Subsequently, we evaluated the validity of these scores using dengue surveillance data and spatial models.ResultsWe found high validity for stage 1 and 2 scores, but not stage 3 scores. Vulnerability was highest in Selva Baja and Costa, and in summer and during El Niño events, with index case potential (stage 1) being high in both regions but outbreak receptivity (stage 2) being generally high in Selva Baja only.ConclusionsStage 1 and 2 scores are well-suited to predicting outbreaks of Ae. aegypti-vectored diseases in this setting, however stage 3 scores appear better suited to diseases with direct human-to-human transmission. To prevent outbreaks, measures to detect index cases should be targeted to both Selva Baja and Costa, while Selva Baja should be prioritized for healthcare system strengthening. Successful extension of this framework from hemorrhagic fevers in Africa to an arbovirus in Latin America indicates its broad utility for outbreak and pandemic preparedness and response activities.

Placemaking in Artisanal Small-Scale Mining: A Gendered Examination of Mobility, Economic Opportunity, and Vulnerability in Africa

Placemaking in Artisanal Small-Scale Mining: A Gendered Examination of Mobility, Economic Opportunity, and Vulnerability in Africa

Globalization and Corona Virus (COVID-19) Pandemic : The Vulnerability of Africa Is the Opportunity of China

The sporadic spread of Wuhan COVID-19 and its dreadful havoc on humans and economies worldwide have shown the dark side of globalization in this era As such, various researches are being unfolded in different fields currently It is most likely China will face both political and economic persecutions from the US, European countries and the G7 in the post pandemic periods Against this backdrop, an attempt was made in this paper to philosophically project how African vulnerability to COVID-19 could erupt another series of business opportunities for China It could be submitted that COVID-19 pandemic will change the structure of diplomatic and trade relations of China with the rest of the world in general and Africa in particular Though, China is the biggest Africa's trade partner and top Africa's creditor concurrently with massive investments in the continent This makes Africa to be vulnerable to the whip and caprices of the world's second biggest economy If china refuses to grant debt relief to Africa, majority of highly indebted countries will be in debt trap soonest Consequently, this paper suggested that Africa should think outside the box by exploiting and developing untapped natural resources to their full capacity in order to compete with their counterparts in the global market Also, Africa needs to explore industrial production that can utilized its raw materials and consequently leverage on intra Africa trade given the opportunity orchestrated by the African Continental Free Trade Agreement After all, COVID-19 spread to Africa as a bad by-product of globalization

Climate variability, absorptive capacity and economic performance in Sub-Sahara Africa

The high reliance of Africa’s GDP on agriculture makes its economic growth susceptible to climate change. The vulnerability of Africa is further worsened by the strong inter-linkage that the agricultural sector has with other productive sectors. To drive policy implications that transform economic performance in Africa, it becomes important to understand the linkages between climate and economy of the region. This paper examines the effects that climate change has on economic performance in sub-Saharan African nations. Based on cross-country panel climatic data that takes account of the absorptive mechanism, it estimates the contribution of climate change to economic performance in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The estimator is developed based on the OLS, Fixed Effect, and the Arellano-Bond (1991) Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator. The findings show that high temperature is a significant contributor to worsening economic performance in the SSA region. However, after accounting for the absorptive mechanisms, the relationship is no longer that strong. Specifically, after accounting for initial economic performance, social and political stability in the 2-stage GMM estimation, the estimate for temperature drops by 59%. This result confirms the hypothesis that the negative impact of climate change in the region is not absolute, and that building an overall stable socioeconomic environment in the region could assist in buffering the impact of climate change.

Multi-dimensional assessment of drought vulnerability in Africa: 1960–2100

Drought vulnerability is a complex concept that identifies the capacity to cope with drought, and reveals the susceptibility of a system to the adverse impacts of drought. In this study, a multi-dimensional modeling framework is carried out to investigate drought vulnerability at a national level across the African continent. Data from 28 factors in six different components (i.e. economy, energy and infrastructure, health, land use, society, and water resources) are collected for 46 African countries during 1960–2015, and a composite Drought Vulnerability Index (DVI) is calculated for each country. Various analyses are conducted to assess the reliability and accuracy of the proposed DVI, and the index is evaluated against historical observed drought impacts. Then, regression models are fitted to the historical time-series of DVI for each country, and the models are extrapolated for the period of 2020–2100 to provide three future scenarios of DVI projection (low, medium, and high) based on historical variations and trends. Results show that Egypt, Tunisia, and Algeria are the least drought vulnerable countries, and Chad, Niger, and Malawi are the most drought vulnerable countries in Africa. Future DVI projections indicate that the difference between low- and high-vulnerable countries will increase in future, with most of the southern and northern African countries becoming less vulnerable to drought, whereas the majority of central African countries indicate increasing drought vulnerability. The projected DVIs can be utilized for long-term drought risk analysis as well as strategic adaptation planning purposes.

GEV Parameter Estimation and Stationary vs. Non-Stationary Analysis of Extreme Rainfall in African Test Cities

Nowadays, increased flood risk is recognized as one of the most significant threats in most parts of the world, with recurring severe flooding events causing significant property and human life losses. This has entailed public debates on both the apparent increased frequency of extreme events and the perceived increases in rainfall intensities within climate changing scenarios. In this work, a stationary vs. Non-Stationary Analysis of annual extreme rainfall was performed with reference to the case studies of the African cities of Dar Es Salaam (TZ) and Addis Ababa (ET). For Dar Es Salaam (TZ) a dataset of 53 years (1958–2010) of maximum daily rainfall records (24 h) was analysed, whereas a 47-year time series (1964–2010) was taken into account for Addis Ababa (ET). Both gauge stations rainfall data were suitably fitted by Extreme Value Distribution (EVD) models. Inference models using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and the Bayesian approach were applied on EVD considering their impact on the shape parameter and the confidence interval width. A comparison between a Non-Stationary regression and a Stationary model was also performed. On this matter, the two time series did not show any Non-Stationary effect. The results achieved under the CLUVA (Climatic Change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa) EU project by the Euro-Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change (CMCC) (with 1 km downscaling) for the IPCC RCP8.5 climatological scenario were also applied to forecast the analysis until 2050 (93 years for Dar Es Salaam TZ and 86 years for Addis Ababa ET). Over the long term, the process seemed to be Non-Stationary for both series. Moreover, with reference to a 100-year return period, the IDF (Intensity-Duration-Frequency) curves of the two case-studies were estimated by applying the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) approach, as a function of confidence intervals of 2.5% and 97.5% quantiles. The results showed the dependence of Non-Stationary effects of climate change to be conveniently accounted for engineering design and management.

Growth and Vulnerability in Africa as a Consequence of Chinese Investment

Despite its late entry into the market, China has become the largest trading partner with sub-Saharan African countries. In fact, China pumped over $210 million into Africa last year. The consequen...

A multi-dimensional assessment of urban vulnerability to climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa

In this paper, we develop and apply a multi-dimensional vulnerability assessment framework for understanding the impacts of climate change-induced hazards in Sub-Saharan African cities. The research was carried out within the European/African FP7 project CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa, which investigated climate change-induced risks, assessed vulnerability and proposed policy initiatives in five African cities. Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) was used as a main case with a particular focus on urban flooding. The multi-dimensional assessment covered the physical, institutional, attitudinal and asset factors influencing urban vulnerability. Multiple methods were applied to cover the full range of vulnerabilities and to identify potential response strategies, including: model-based forecasts, spatial analyses, document studies, interviews and stakeholder workshops. We demonstrate the potential of the approach to assessing several dimensions of vulnerability and illustrate the complexity of urban vulnerability at different scales: households (e.g., lacking assets); communities (e.g., situated in low-lying areas, lacking urban services and green areas); and entire cities (e.g., facing encroachment on green and flood-prone land). Scenario modeling suggests that vulnerability will continue to increase strongly due to the expected loss of agricultural land at the urban fringes and loss of green space within the city. However, weak institutional commitment and capacity limit the potential for strategic coordination and action. To better adapt to urban flooding and thereby reduce vulnerability and build resilience, we suggest working across dimensions and scales, integrating climate change issues in city-level plans and strategies and enabling local actions to initiate a ‘learning-by-doing’ process of adaptation.

The impact of orphanhood on education attendance: evidence from Zimbabwe

The development community has started to question the exclusive focus of social protection programmes on orphans and vulnerable children affected by AIDS in the context of widespread poverty and vulnerability in Africa. This paper, using 2009 Zimbabwe Multiple Indicator Monitoring Survey data and multivariate regression analysis and simulations, shows that the impact of orphan-hood on children's access to education should be not underestimated. Specifically, the probability differential of dropping out of school, when comparing double-orphans and children with both their parents, is almost as large as the gap between a child from the fourth quintile and the poorest quintile.

Exploring drought vulnerability in Africa: an indicator based analysis to be used in early warning systems

Abstract. We propose a composite drought vulnerability indicator (DVI) that reflects different aspects of drought vulnerability evaluated at Pan-African level for four components: the renewable natural capital, the economic capacity, the human and civic resources, and the infrastructure and technology. The selection of variables and weights reflects the assumption that a society with institutional capacity and coordination, as well as with mechanisms for public participation, is less vulnerable to drought; furthermore, we consider that agriculture is only one of the many sectors affected by drought. The quality and accuracy of a composite indicator depends on the theoretical framework, on the data collection and quality, and on how the different components are aggregated. This kind of approach can lead to some degree of scepticism; to overcome this problem a sensitivity analysis was done in order to measure the degree of uncertainty associated with the construction of the composite indicator. Although the proposed drought vulnerability indicator relies on a number of theoretical assumptions and some degree of subjectivity, the sensitivity analysis showed that it is a robust indicator and hence able of representing the complex processes that lead to drought vulnerability. According to the DVI computed at country level, the African countries classified with higher relative vulnerability are Somalia, Burundi, Niger, Ethiopia, Mali and Chad. The analysis of the renewable natural capital component at sub-basin level shows that the basins with high to moderate drought vulnerability can be subdivided into the following geographical regions: the Mediterranean coast of Africa; the Sahel region and the Horn of Africa; the Serengeti and the Eastern Miombo woodlands in eastern Africa; the western part of the Zambezi Basin, the southeastern border of the Congo Basin, and the belt of Fynbos in the Western Cape province of South Africa. The results of the DVI at the country level were compared with drought disaster information from the EM-DAT disaster database. Even if a cause–effect relationship cannot be established between the DVI and the drought disaster database, a good agreement is observed between the drought vulnerability maps and the number of persons affected by droughts. These results are expected to contribute to the discussion on how to assess drought vulnerability and hopefully contribute to the development of drought early warning systems in Africa.

Transactional Sex, HIV and Young African Women: Are we there Yet?

Transactional sex – sexual exchange in ordinary relationships – continues to play a major role in the vulnerability of Africa’s young people and women to HIV. This practice presents a major challenge to the successful creation of an ‘AIDS Free Generation” as long as the dynamics of intertwining sex and material ‘gifts’ provision are left unchanged. In sub-Saharan Africa the influence of media and its promotion of consumer values have profoundly influenced youth’s perception of consumption items giving way to the acceptance and momentum of exchanging sex for gifts money and resources. Research on sexual practices in the context of Africa’s growing HIV epidemic has resulted in a considerable knowledge of transactional sex. Recent studies from Zimbabwe Swaziland South Africa Lesotho Burundi and other countries reveal the important role sex-related transactions play as a way to meet a variety of essential needs and consumer wants. It becomes evident that a combination of interventions aimed at addressing young women’s HIV vulnerability must also include programs that engage them to think about the risks associated with the expectations and assumptions of transactions in sex.

Climate Change and Insecurity: Mapping Vulnerability in Africa

Many experts argue that climate change will exacerbate the severity and number of extreme weather events. Such climate-related hazards will be important security concerns and sources of vulnerability in the future regardless of whether they contribute to conflict. This will be particularly true where these hazards put large numbers of people at risk of death, requiring the diversion of either domestic or foreign military assets to provide humanitarian relief. Vulnerability to extreme weather, however, is only partially a function of physical exposure. Poor, marginalized communities that lack access to infrastructure and services, that have minimal education and poor health care, and that exist in countries with poor governance are likely to be among the most vulnerable. Given its dependence on rainfed agriculture and its low adaptive capacity, Africa is thought to be among the most vulnerable continents to climate change. That vulnerability, however, is not uniformly distributed. Indicators of vulnerability within Africa include the historic incidence of climate-related hazards, population density, household and community resilience, and governance and political violence. Among the places in Africa most vulnerable to the security consequences of climate change are parts of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Guinea, Sierra Leone, Somalia, and South Sudan.

Of Climate Change and Crystal Balls: The Future Consequences of Climate Change in Africa

Abstract : Using Africa as a regional focus, this article attempts to reconcile the scientific community's approach to analyzing the effects of climate change with the emerging approaches in political science for assessing the future security consequences of such change. It presents georeferenced maps of subnational climate vulnerability in Africa, using past exposure to climate-related hazards, population density, household and community resilience, and governance as well as political violence. The article couples this approach with projections of future climate change, employing an ensemble of five general circulation models and suggesting that maps of chronic vulnerability which incorporate a variety of indicators provide a helpful advance for international relations scholars. Specifically, such maps are less reliant on heroic assumptions about changes in political and economic systems than either forecasting or scenario analysis.

Environmental conflicts and women’s vulnerability in Africa

This article examines environmental conflicts and women’s vulnerability in Africa. Environmental resources are critical to poor women’s productive and reproductive lives in Africa. Environmental resources diversify livelihoods and are key to the survival strategies women adopt. Environmental conflicts are ofconcern in several parts of Africa and they have gendered impacts that needto be considered. This article focuses on two main aspects. The first examinesthe linkages between environmental conflicts, women’s vulnerability and gender-based violence. The second considers environmental conflicts, accessto resources and women’s vulnerability. In particular, the focus is on the way in which conflicts restrict women’s access to and control of environmental resources. Additionally, the impacts of environmental degradation which tendto characterise environmental conflicts are considered. The article also brieflydiscusses women’s responses and adaptation strategies to the challenges they confront in relation to environmental conflicts.

Coping with Vulnerability in Africa: Urban Agriculture and Poverty Alleviation

Coping with Vulnerability in Africa: Urban Agriculture and Poverty Alleviation

Risk, Poverty and Vulnerability in Africa

Risk, Poverty and Vulnerability in Africa

CLIMATE ANOMALIES AND EXTREME EVENTS IN AFRICA IN 2003, INCLUDING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODS THAT OCCURRED DURING NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SUMMER

The climate of 2003, particularly during Northern Hemisphere summer, was marked by exceptionally abnormal events throughout the world, and Africa was no exception. As record heat waves prevailed over Europe, heavy rains and floods occurred over the west-central Sahara, across the Sudano-Sahelian region and western Kenya, while drought conditions gripped the Guinea Coast and southeastern Southern Africa, and cold waves hit southern South Africa. Among the most remarkable events were record rainfall in the western portion of the Sahara-Sahel and drought conditions over the Guinea Coast that were both caused by an extreme northward penetration of the ITCZ relative to normal years. In addition, record-breaking cold weather occurred in southern South Africa in mid-August by a strong extratropical cyclone accompanied by a cold front. During Southern Hemisphere summer, Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and Malawi frequently experienced heavy rains and fl oods associated with tropical cyclones and their remnants. More than 550 people died and over 2.5 million were displaced because of flin Africa in 2003. Africa's vulnerability to climate hazards could be reduced through enhancements of both short- and long-term coping strategies, climate monitoring and early warning systems, fl ood control infrastructures, and other disaster preparedness measures at all levels, including sub-regional, national, and local levels. Mechanisms that caused various events in Africa in 2003, events which can be viewed as regional responses in Africa to anthropogenic global warming, must be explored from the perspective of global change.