Abstract
Abstract. We propose a composite drought vulnerability indicator (DVI) that reflects different aspects of drought vulnerability evaluated at Pan-African level for four components: the renewable natural capital, the economic capacity, the human and civic resources, and the infrastructure and technology. The selection of variables and weights reflects the assumption that a society with institutional capacity and coordination, as well as with mechanisms for public participation, is less vulnerable to drought; furthermore, we consider that agriculture is only one of the many sectors affected by drought. The quality and accuracy of a composite indicator depends on the theoretical framework, on the data collection and quality, and on how the different components are aggregated. This kind of approach can lead to some degree of scepticism; to overcome this problem a sensitivity analysis was done in order to measure the degree of uncertainty associated with the construction of the composite indicator. Although the proposed drought vulnerability indicator relies on a number of theoretical assumptions and some degree of subjectivity, the sensitivity analysis showed that it is a robust indicator and hence able of representing the complex processes that lead to drought vulnerability. According to the DVI computed at country level, the African countries classified with higher relative vulnerability are Somalia, Burundi, Niger, Ethiopia, Mali and Chad. The analysis of the renewable natural capital component at sub-basin level shows that the basins with high to moderate drought vulnerability can be subdivided into the following geographical regions: the Mediterranean coast of Africa; the Sahel region and the Horn of Africa; the Serengeti and the Eastern Miombo woodlands in eastern Africa; the western part of the Zambezi Basin, the southeastern border of the Congo Basin, and the belt of Fynbos in the Western Cape province of South Africa. The results of the DVI at the country level were compared with drought disaster information from the EM-DAT disaster database. Even if a cause–effect relationship cannot be established between the DVI and the drought disaster database, a good agreement is observed between the drought vulnerability maps and the number of persons affected by droughts. These results are expected to contribute to the discussion on how to assess drought vulnerability and hopefully contribute to the development of drought early warning systems in Africa.
Highlights
Drought vulnerability is a complex concept that includes both biophysical and socio-economic drivers of drought impact that determine the capacity to cope with drought
We recognise that there is a semantic debate among some scholars on terminology and the term vulnerability may have different meanings when used in different disciplines and contexts (Smit et al, 1999; Brooks et al, 2005; Adger, 2006; Füssel, 2007); the concept of vulnerability used in the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) refers to the internal component of risk, generally
The first section presents a simplified agricultural drought vulnerability index that takes in account only the renewable natural capital variables that were available at 1 × 1 degree resolution
Summary
Drought vulnerability is a complex concept that includes both biophysical and socio-economic drivers of drought impact that determine the capacity to cope with drought. The direct impact of precipitation deficiencies may be a reduction of crop yields, the underlying cause of this vulnerability to meteorological drought may be that the farmers did not use drought-resistant seeds – either because they did not believe in their usefulness, their costs were too high, or because of some commitment to cultural beliefs Another example could be farm foreclosure related to drought; the underlying cause of this vulnerability could be manifold, such as small farm size because of historical land appropriation policies, lack of credit for diversification options, farming on marginal lands, limited knowledge of possible farming options, a lack of local industry for off-farm supplemental income, or government policies
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
