Voter Preferences Research Articles

By the people, for the people: Local government's representation of voter preferences under the Affordable Care Act

AbstractDecentralized government is hypothesized to lead public service investments to better align with political preferences across geographical regions, yet there has been limited rigorous testing of this hypothesis. We examine how local public provision of hospital services varied according to political preferences between 2006 and 2016. We use state Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) as a source of exogenous variation. Consistent with the motivation for federalism, we find that areas less supportive of the ACA tended to convert the state expansion into lower property taxes with lower public hospital expenditures, whereas, in states that expanded Medicaid, local governments tended to increase public provision of healthcare.

Pork barrel in Türkiye: Distributive politics in the allocation of public investments into Turkish electorates

AbstractWe investigate the political factors involved in the allocation of public investments into Turkish electoral districts. Using a unique data set covering detailed individual characteristics of approximately 2000 Turkish MPs over five legislative periods during 1987–2004, we show that the composition of several legislator characteristics in an electorate, such as the level of education, area of tertiary degree, and former profession, matters in the way pork barrel occurs across electorates. The findings also indicate a strong presence of partisan motivations and targeted support for opposition groups and ideological strongholds in public investment allocations. We also document evidence that a stronger right‐wing tendency in the cabinet, a single‐party government, fractionalized voter preferences, and higher voter turnout in the electorate are all associated with increased public investments into specific geographic constituencies.

Equality at the Polls: Female Representation Challenges in Musi Banyuasin Regency in 2019-2024

In Musi Banyuasin Regency, the quest for gender equality in political representation faces multifaceted challenges. This study explores the barriers hindering female participation and representation in local electoral processes. Through qualitative analysis, interviews with key stakeholders including female candidates, local officials, and community leaders were conducted to uncover underlying issues.The findings reveal several critical challenges. Firstly, structural barriers such as entrenched patriarchal norms and limited access to financial resources significantly impede women from contesting elections on an equal footing with their male counterparts. Secondly, despite legal frameworks promoting gender equality, cultural perceptions and societal expectations often undermine women’s political ambitions. Thirdly, the role of political parties emerges as pivotal, with varying levels of support and nomination opportunities affecting women’s candidacy viability. Moreover, the study highlights community attitudes towards female leadership, where biases and stereotypes persist, shaping voter preferences and electoral outcomes. These dynamics perpetuate a cycle of underrepresentation and marginalization of women in decision-making bodies like the local legislative council. Ultimately, achieving gender equality at the polls in Musi Banyuasin Regency necessitates concerted efforts from various stakeholders to dismantle barriers, reshape cultural narratives, and advance inclusive governance practices

The gatekeeper’s dilemma: Political selection or team effort

Political parties play a crucial gatekeeping role in elections, including controlling electoral resources, candidate recruitment, and electoral list compositions. In making these strategic choices, parties aim to encourage candidates to invest in the campaign, while also trying to secure advantages for their preferred candidates. We study how parties navigate this trade-off using a specific feature of the Norwegian local electoral system in which parties can give advantaged positions to some candidates in an otherwise open list. Our theory reveals that parties’ ex-ante electoral strength impacts their strategic decisions. Notably, the trade-off is weaker for more popular parties, allowing them to facilitate the election of their preferred candidates without compromising the party’s overall performance. We show empirically that the moral hazard concern is real, and that larger parties are indeed more likely to use their power to make some candidates safe. The advantage of large parties extends further: safeguarding specific candidates enables parties to achieve disproportionately favorable outcomes in post-electoral bargaining. These findings reveal new insights for political representations, policy outcomes, and intra-party dynamics more broadly.

Occupant behavioral adjustments and thermal comfort with torso and/or foot warming in two cold indoor environments

Personal warming systems have been shown to improve occupant thermal comfort in cold indoor environments. Currently, there are almost no published comprehensive studies on the examination of occupant behavioral patterns in relation to the use of personal warming systems. Thus, this study presented a human trial study to investigate the effects of torso and foot warming on thermal comfort of young female occupants in two cold indoor environments (15 °C and 17 °C), based on a water warming suit (WWS) and HYB (a WWS combined with heated socks). Besides, occupant behavior adjustments regarding water temperature setpoints for WWS and electrical heating levels for heated socks were thoroughly investigated. WWS and HYB improved occupant thermal comfort at 15 °C and 17 °C, with ≥85.7 % of ‘No Change’ OTPVs (overall thermal preference votes) observed during the last 20 min of exposure. Foot heating can significantly reduce heating demand on the upper torso, both in terms of water setting temperatures and total heating time. HYB exhibited a 25.4 % and 43.3 % shorter total duration with water setting temperatures of ≥40 °C compared to WWS at 15 °C and 17 °C, respectively. Further, occupants have employed a trial-and-error adjustment approach to determine the heating temperature/level that offers optimal thermal comfort in the cold. Lastly, the use of two PWS combinations has the potential to reduce energy consumption for indoor heating by 62.9 %, 32.1 %, and 53.7 % in cities such as San Francisco, Phoenix, and Minneapolis (baseline heating setpoint: 21.5 °C).

MEKANISME SISTEM PROPORSIONAL TERBUKA PADA PEMILIHAN DEWAN PERWAKILAN RAKYAT DI INDONESIA

The aim of this research is to analyze the mechanism of the open proportional system in the General Election of the People's Representative Council in Indonesia by referring to Law Number 7 of 2017 concerning General Elections which regulates the open list Proportional Election System, where this system can give rise to a polemic in the struggle for seats. in a very competitive parliament that has the effect of giving birth to an unhealthy model of competition between candidates that only aims to gain as many votes as possible from voters by relying solely on money and popularity. This research method uses normative juridical in answering the problems in this paper. Meanwhile, the results of the research obtained are that an open Proportional System makes it possible for anyone to nominate themselves as members of the legislature. In this system, a person who gets the most votes can take a seat as a member of the People's Representative Council even though the person concerned is at the bottom of the ballot paper.

Ethnic votes and parties' mobilization: A case study of New Zealand

AbstractThe aim of this research is to investigate how ethnicity and political parties' mobilization efforts influence the voting preferences of migrants in electoral contexts. To achieve this, an empirical study was conducted, focusing on New Zealand's two major parties (New Zealand National and New Zealand Labour Party) and their mobilization practice targeting ethnic Chinese voters. This research adopted a mixed‐methods approach, involving conducting interviews with Chinese community leaders and surveys within the community. The quantitative findings establish a positive correlation between a party's mobilization efforts and the level of support from Chinese ethnic voters. Furthermore, the research underscores the importance of genuine targeting, emphasizing the recognition and addressing of the unique needs and concerns of ethnic minority communities, rather than engaging in mere tokenism.Related ArticlesEscaleras, Monica, Dukhong Kim, and Kevin M. Wagner. 2019. “You Are Who You Think You Are: Linked Fate and Vote Choices among Latino Voters.” Politics & Policy 47(5): 902–30. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12329.McKay, Spencer. 2021. “The Politics of Referendum Rules: Evidence from New Zealand (1893–2016).” Politics & Policy 50(1): 137–53. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12445.Stokes‐Brown, Atiya Kai. 2009. “The Hidden Politics of Identity: Racial Self‐Identification and Latino Political Engagement.” Politics & Policy 37(6): 1281–305. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747‐1346.2009.00220.x.

The sway of migrant crisis and COVID-19 pandemic on voter preference.

The sway of migrant crisis and COVID-19 pandemic on voter preference.

Does electoral behavior change after a protest cycle? Evidence from Chile and Bolivia

Can protests produce changes in electoral behavior? In this paper, we examine variations in voter turnout and electoral preferences at the local level after a protest cycle. Using data on protest occurrence during the 2019 social mobilizations in Chile and Bolivia and a difference-in-differences design, we assess the impact that street demonstrations had on voting behavior in the elections that took place the following year. We found that turnout was higher in municipalities that had protests, while the incumbent vote was lower. We argue that the effect on turnout is explained by the surge in political efficacy that emerged from the protests. Furthermore, we suggest that the protests enabled more effective blame attribution and heightened the salience of political issues, leading to changes in voter preferences. These results demonstrate the effect of protests on electoral dynamics, highlighting their role not only in mobilizing voters but also in shaping electoral preferences.

Selection of the Shortest Path of Gamalama Eruption Evacuation Using the Astar Method

Natural disasters have no time limit and can happen anywhere at any moment. They put human life at risk and can result in both property loss and casualties. Like those at Gamalama volcano, volcanic eruption disasters are constant and incur enormous losses. There are numerous evacuation sites for self-rescue against volcanic eruptions, and knowing the distance to the evacuation sites is necessary to expedite the self-rescue process to reduce the number of victims. Naturally, the areas surrounding the disaster center must be kept clear. To solve this issue, a mechanism for choosing the shortest path via the astar method must be implemented. As part of the astar method, the shortest path is chosen by first figuring out the starting and destination locations, initializing intersections by turning each intersection into a node, adding the node to the open list, calculating it with weights, adding it to the closed list, figuring out potential nodes that lead to the destination, and saving the results. As a consequence of the master method's application, the shortest route—a distance of 3,560 meters—connects the starting point (the Tubo village head office) with the gathering point (the Salerno field). Bypassing every pre-planned path, which is as follows: No. 1 (Jl. Ake Tubo, Tubo) - Node 2 (Ake et al.) - Node 7 (Jl. Batu Angus No.1, Dufa Dufa) - Node 8 (North Sangaji) - Node 9 (Toboleu, Kec. Kota Ternate Utara) - Assembly Point (Salero Field). Keywords: Astar, Volcanic Disaster, and Geographic Information System.

<i>Skažem tak</i>: Discourse markers originating from verbs of speech in Russian

Based on data from the Russian National Corpus, first and foremost, from its multimedia corpus, we address two members of the family of discourse markers developed from the finite form of the verb of speech skažem (the first person plural present tense form of the verb ‘say’): isolated skažem and its combinations with an adverb or a pronominal adverb such as skažem prjamo ‘let’s put it bluntly’, skažem tak ‘let’s put it this way’, etc. We show that these markers demonstrate a typical pragmaticalization trajectory: unlike the original speech verb, they do not refer to a speech event, their main function is to express a fuzzy nomination, or hedging, i.e., these markers are used when the speaker disclaims responsibility for the possible inaccuracy of the propositional content or of the nomination used in relation to the fixed propositional content. We demonstrate the main shifts in the distribution of these markers, which occur due to the fact that they fall out of the rigid clausal structure and acquire the status of an operator which scopes over discourse segments of various (potentially any) length. We study the main prosodic properties of these markers instrumentally and perceptually and, in addition, discuss the use of markers of this family together with other means of signaling that the speaker needs additional efforts in choosing an adequate expression. These can be other lexical markers of fuzzy nomination, lexical and prosodic indicators of an open list, self-corrections, signals of hesitation (filled pauses, non-phonological lengthening of sounds), etc. The results obtained convincingly show: (1) that even within the same family of markers, the shift from a unit with propositional meaning to a discourse marker can follow different trajectories and lead to larger or smaller shifts in meaning and form; and (2) that the study of discourse markers that uses data on prosody and such specific phenomena of oral discourse as speech disfluencies makes it possible to get more comprehensive lexicographic portraits of single units and their families.

Who Do the Socially Mobile Vote For? A Longitudinal Analysis of Intergenerational Mobility and Political Preferences

Social mobility has become a key public policy issue across the Western world. But who do the upwardly and downwardly mobile vote for? Does their voting behaviour remain the same as their peers in their social origin class, or does it quickly assimilate to mimic the behaviour of others at their social destination? This article presents new, longitudinal evidence on this issue, documenting how the link between social origin, destination and political voting behaviour varies during adult life. We find individuals who move up the social ladder are more likely to vote Conservative than individuals who remain in the same social class as their parents. Overall, an individual’s social origin and social destination seem to be equally important for how they vote. Yet we find no evidence that social mobility is associated with political voting preferences per se; rather upwardly mobile individuals’ greater propensity to vote for the Conservatives is driven by the joint impact of their social origin and destination.

Rethinking representative democracy in Croatia

The article analyses the development of representative democracy in Croatia from its independence to today. During the 1990s, Croatia changed its electoral system several times and had a bicameral parliament. With the constitutional changes implemented in 2001, the legislative power was organized on a unicameral principle. At the same time, the previous semi-presidential system was replaced by a parliamentary one. These changes represent only the basic framework within which representative democracy in Croatia developed over time. An important milestone in this development was the introduction of preferential voting at the national elections in 2015, which allowed the voters to vote for a particular list and a specific candidate on that list. According to some, this improved the problematic state of inner-party democracy, although, for others, the reform was not far-reaching enough. Given that representative democracy does not function in a vacuum, the article also considers the impact of direct democracy on the functioning of representative democracy in Croatia. Referring to the Croatian experience, it argues that this complementary form of democracy had a positive impact on the quality of representative democracy in the country. Nevertheless, in the face of representative democracy in Croatia, many open questions still need to be addressed. The most important one is how to increase the turnout in the elections, which is still comparatively low and arguably related to the low trust in politics.

Judicial Competence and Consistency in the Constitutional Court’s Decision about Open List Proportional Representation

The Constitutional Court often creates new norms that affect the electoral system. Still, sometimes, the Constitutional Court decides cases examining the Election Law as an open legal policy. Therefore, the question is whether the Constitutional Court decides the case in accordance with its competence and consistency in determining cases No. 22-24/PUU-VI/2008 and No. 114/PUU-XX/2022 related to the application of an open list proportional representation system in the DPR and DPRD elections. The purpose of this study is to examine further the competence and consistency of the Constitutional Court in deciding the two cases. This research uses doctrinal research methods. The approaches used in this research include statute, conceptual, historical, and comparative approaches related to the issues being studied. As a result of the study, it was found that the competence of the Constitutional Court in deciding cases No. 22-24/PUU-VI/2008 and No. 114/PUU-XX/2022 was in the context of exercising its authority to examine laws against the 1945 Constitution of the Republic of Indonesia, not as a determinant that regulates and determines which system is most appropriate to be used in the electoral system in Indonesia. The Constitutional Court showed its consistency in deciding the two cases. In its ratio decidendi, the Constitutional Court uses Article 22E paragraph (1) as the basis for its legal considerations so that elections are held with the widest possible participation of the people on the principles of democracy, direct, honest, and fair. This consistency is very important to maintain in order to preserve and sustain the reform mandate that has been crystallized in the 1945 Constitution.

A pragmatic randomised controlled non-inferiority trial of open-door policy versus treatment as usual in urban psychiatric inpatient wards

IntroductionOpen-door policy (ODP) is an approach to reduce coercion in psychiatric wards recommended by the World Health Organization and the Council of Europe. Observational studies from Switzerland and Germany have shown promising results in reducing coercion, but no RCTs have been conducted. Skeptics have been concerned the observational evidence could mask that ODP could increase risks and harms and / or increase the use of coercive measures staff use to assist patients with psychoses, while proponents have argued that de-escalation and alliance-building will result in no such increase.ObjectivesTo evaluate open-door policy in an openly randomised, ethical-board approved trial of all patients referred to ward care at the Lovisenberg Diaconal Hospital in Oslo, Norway.MethodsA 12-month pragmatic, randomised-controlled non-inferiority trial comparing two ODP and three TAU acute psychiatric wards. The trial was pre-registered (ISRCTN16876467) and conformed to CONSORT. Ethical committee exemption enabled waiver of consent rules for the study, meaning all regular patients were included. Patients were randomly assigned (2:3 ratio) by a clinical admissions team using an open list. The non-inferiority margin was 15 % on the primary outcome: the proportion of patient stays with one or more coercive measures, including involuntary medication, isolation/seclusion, and physical and mechanical restraints. Primary and safety analyses were based on intention-to-treat. Safety analyses included suicides and violent events against staff. Secondary outcomes were individual coercive measures, intensive care, resource use, and patient feedback.ResultsN=556 patients were included and randomised and were similar on all pre-admission demographics: Around 75% of patients were diagnosed with a psychotic disorder and were involuntarily admitted. Primary outcome: Use of coercive measures was within the non-inferiority margin (see table 1). Safety outcomes: No suicides occurred during ward care in any group. Violence against staff did not differ between study wards. Secondary outcomes: Use of intensive care (‘skjerming’) and number of days admitted was significantly less on open-door policy wards. Patients on open-door policy wards rated their experience of coercion and ward atmosphere better than patients on control wards.Table 1.Absolute and relative risk of being subjected to coercion on open-door policy or usual-treatment wards.Number (%) Main outcome Absolute Risk ODP wards (n=245) Absolute Risk TAU wards (n=311) Relative Risk (95% CI) Risk Difference (95% CI) Primary hypothesis confirmedOne or more coercive measures during the admission65 (26.5%)104 (33.4%)1.3 (0.97 to 1.6)6.9% (-0.7 to 14.5)YesConclusionsThis first RCT found open-door policy does not increase use of coercion or resource use. It does not harm staff or patients and is experienced as better by patients.Disclosure of InterestNone Declared

Can biased search results change people's opinions about anything at all? a close replication of the Search Engine Manipulation Effect (SEME).

In previous experiments we have conducted on the Search Engine Manipulation Effect (SEME), we have focused on the ability of biased search results to shift voting preferences. In three new experiments with a total of 1,137 US residents (mean age = 33.2), we sought to determine whether biased search rankings could shift people's opinions on topics that do not involve candidates or elections. Each of the new experiments looked at a different topic, and participants were pre-screened to make sure they didn't have strong opinions about these topics. The topics were: Is artificial intelligence useful or dangerous? Is fracking helpful or dangerous? And: Are people born gay or do they choose to be gay? All participants were first asked various demographic questions, then shown brief summaries of the "pro" and "anti" views on each topic, and then asked their opinions about each topic. Next, participants were allowed to conduct an online search using our mock search engine (Kadoodle) lasting up to 15 minutes. In each experiment, one-third of the participants saw biased search results favoring one perspective; one-third saw biased search results favoring the opposing perspective; and one-third (the control group) saw mixed search results. After completing their search, participants were again asked for their opinions about the topic. Our primary dependent variable was Manipulation Power (MP), the percentage increase in the number of participants favoring one viewpoint after having viewed search rankings favoring that viewpoint. The MPs in the three experiments were 25.0%, 30.9%, and 17.8%, respectively. Corresponding shifts were also found for how persuasive participants found each viewpoint to be and for how much they trusted each viewpoint. We conclude that search rankings favoring one viewpoint on a wide range of topics might be able to cause people who have not yet formulated a strong opinion on such topics to adopt the favored perspective. If our findings prove to be robust, we are exposing what might be considered an unforeseen consequence of the creation of search engines, namely that even without human interference, search algorithms will inevitably alter the thinking and behavior of billions of people worldwide on perhaps any topic for which they have not yet formed strong opinions.

An Integrated Approach to Preferential Voting Models with Variable Weights for Rank Positions

An Integrated Approach to Preferential Voting Models with Variable Weights for Rank Positions

Completing Priceable Committees: Utilitarian and Representation Guarantees for Proportional Multiwinner Voting

When selecting committees based on preferences of voters, a variety of different criteria can be considered. Two natural objectives are maximizing the utilitarian welfare (the sum of voters' utilities) and coverage (the number of represented voters) of the selected committee. Previous work has studied the impact on utilitarian welfare and coverage when requiring the committee to satisfy minimal requirements such as justified representation or weak proportionality. In this paper, we consider the impact of imposing much more demanding proportionality axioms. We identify a class of voting rules that achieve strong guarantees on utilitarian welfare and coverage when combined with appropriate completions. This class is defined via a weakening of priceability and contains prominent rules such as the Method of Equal Shares. We show that committees selected by these rules (i) can be completed to achieve optimal coverage and (ii) can be completed to achieve an asymptotically optimal approximation to the utilitarian welfare if they additionally satisfy EJR+. Answering an open question of Elkind et al. (2022), we use the Greedy Justified Candidate Rule to obtain the best possible utilitarian guarantee subject to proportionality. We also consider completion methods suggested in the participatory budgeting literature and other objectives besides welfare and coverage.

Proportional Aggregation of Preferences for Sequential Decision Making

We study the problem of fair sequential decision making given voter preferences. In each round, a decision rule must choose a decision from a set of alternatives where each voter reports which of these alternatives they approve. Instead of going with the most popular choice in each round, we aim for proportional representation, using axioms inspired by the multi-winner voting literature. The axioms require that every group of α% of the voters, if it agrees in every round (i.e., approves a common alternative), then those voters must approve at least α% of the decisions. A stronger version of the axioms requires that every group of α% of the voters that agrees in a β fraction of rounds must approve β⋅α% of the decisions. We show that three attractive voting rules satisfy axioms of this style. One of them (Sequential Phragmén) makes its decisions online, and the other two satisfy strengthened versions of the axioms but make decisions semi-online (Method of Equal Shares) or fully offline (Proportional Approval Voting). We present empirical results for these rules based on synthetic data and U.S. political elections. We also run experiments using the moral machine dataset about ethical dilemmas. We train preference models on user responses from different countries and let the models cast votes. We find that aggregating these votes using our rules leads to a more equal utility distribution across demographics than making decisions using a single global preference model.

Development and Analysis of GIS Regional Political Profiles in West Java Utilizing the Spatial Overlay Join Method

This research aims to build Geographic Information System (GIS) of Political Region Profiles in West Java using the Overlay Spatial Join method. The study addresses the political complexity in Indonesia, particularly in West Java, which serves as a significant political base. The success of political campaigns requires a profound understanding of voter preferences, demographic dynamics, and local issues. Limited access to accurate location data poses a serious obstacle to the effective design of campaign strategies. This research responds to these challenges by designing a GIS that integrates political and spatial data. The research focuses on West Java, where regional diversity poses unique challenges. Through the Overlay Spatial Join method, the research aims to provide in-depth insights into political region profiles, serving as a foundation for intelligent political campaign strategies. The benefits of the research include an understanding of regional characteristics, performance comparisons of political parties, and in-depth analysis for campaign resource efficiency. The system integrates data from various sources, provides spatial visualization, and enables the analysis of regional profiles for the identification of deep political information. The research's contribution is not only academic but also practical in enhancing the effectiveness of democracy and general elections in West Java.