Voting Patterns Research Articles

Political environment and overall survival after cancer diagnosis in the United States (US).

184 Background: Political environment in the US is closely tied to state and national-level budgetary spending as well as laws and regulations that influence health. It is unclear if survival gains in cancer care differ by county political voting status. We investigated survival trends based on county level presidential voting patterns. Methods: A 5% sample of individuals diagnosed with cancer from 2001 to 2017 in the SEER-Medicare Program was linked to county level data on US presidential elections over the same period. Using the total number of votes in each party, county political environment was classified as either Democratic or Republican for the four years that followed a presidential election. Cox proportional hazards models estimated changes in survival over time, and differences by political party were assessed with interaction analysis. To account for the association between follow-up time and year of diagnosis, overall survival was censored at 3 years for individuals diagnosed in 2015 or earlier. Results: Of 100,755 individuals in our cohort from 2001-2017, 66439 (65.9%) resided in Democratic and 34316 (34.1%) in Republican counties with similar median age at diagnosis and distribution of regional/distant disease. Democratic counties had more urban-located residents (93% vs 70%). 1-year survival in both Democratic and Republican counties increased from 2001 (77% for both) to 2017 (81% Democratic, 80% Republican). 3-year survival increased in Democratic (62% in 2001 to 66% in 2015) but not in Republican counties (65% in 2001 and 2015). Compared to the 2000 election cycle, patients residing in Democratic counties had an 11% decreased risk of death (Hazard Ratio (HR) = 0.89) after the 2008 election cycle while Republican counties did not see these improvements during the same time period (Table; interaction P = 0.02). Among White patients, survival improved (HR = 0.89 for 2016 election cycle compared to 2000) in Democratic counties, but not in Republican counties (HR = 0.99 for same years, P = 0.02). However, among Black patients, survival improved in both Democratic (HR = 0.89) and Republican counties (HR = 0.89) for the same years (P = 0.87). Conclusions: Survival after cancer diagnosis in Republican voting counties has concerningly lagged behind that of Democratic voting counties following the 2008 elections coinciding with the passage of the Affordable Care Act. Our study sheds light on the sharp contrast between political policy and legislation, and rural-urban divide driving outcomes in these areas.[Table: see text]

The concept and main patterns of compulsory voting

Elections are one of the main institutions of good governance. The correct and relevant functioning of the mentioned institution determines the quality of democracy, the legal self-awareness of society and the index of political-economic development of the country.The democratic nature of the elections is indicated by the existence of specific principles, which are stipulated by the electoral law, in particular, universal suffrage, equality, free elections, and secret ballots.The relevant interpretation of each principle determines the effectiveness of the institution.The presented paper focuses on the institution of compulsory voting, which is directly related to the expression of free will. The aim of the paper is to review the institution of compulsory voting, to study its impact on electoral integrity and the overall legitimacy of the political system.According to literature review, the pros and cons of compulsory voting are highly debated. The reason is that there are a lot of supporters and opponents of a given institution with quite strong arguments supporting or opposing the institution.Based on the goals of the paper, it provides a description of the concept of compulsory voting and the reasons for establishing the mentioned institution. The paper reviews the types of obligation and their characteristics, explains the different systems of sanctions imposed on the persons avoiding their voting obligations, and the exemption rules based on the legislation of various countries.Based on literature review and collected data analysis, authors highlight the main patterns of compulsory voting, its relationship with legitimacy and efficiency of elected body. The final part of the paper outlines and evaluates the arguments for and against compulsory electoral participation and presents main findings according to comparative analysis of different cases.Based on the analysis it’s obvious that the institution of compulsory voting cannot be considered with the same results in different societies or states with different social-economic conditions.

The Transformation of Arab Politics and Arab Voter Behavior in Israeli Elections (1999-2009)

This article delves into the transformative decade between 1999 and 2009, exploring the intricate web of Jewish-Arab relations in Israel and the consequential impact of Jewish-Arab tensions on Arab politics and Arab voter behavior in Israeli elections. During this decade, internal factors, such as generational shift, leadership changes, and political pluralism, played a pivotal role in reshaping the societal landscape in the Arab sector. On the other hand, external factors, including the collapse of the Israeli-Palestinian reconciliation process and the eruption of the Second Intifada, intensified the predicament of Israeli citizens of Arab origin, amplifying their national identity dilemma. The primary objective of this study is to analyze voting patterns within the Arab sector during the elections of 1999, 2001, 2003, 2006, and 2009, thereby highlighting the profound political implications of the Jewish-Arab tensions on Arab political engagement and voting behaviors. By doing so, this research provides insights into the changing patterns of Arab votes and their impact on the broader political landscape of Israel. The findings reveal that the growing social marginalization and disconnection from the Jewish sector significantly influenced the Arab sector's electoral participation. This period witnessed a decline in Arab voter turnout and a shift in support from left-wing Jewish-Zionist parties to Arab parties, paradoxically contributing to the electoral performances of both Arab parties and right-wing Jewish-Zionist parties.

Recent Legal Developments: Criminal Justice Decisions of the United States Supreme Court, 2022 Term

In this paper, we review and analyze the criminal justice–related decisions of the 2022 term of the United States Supreme Court. We also provide a summary of the Court's voting patterns and opinion authorship. Fourteen of the Court's 58 decisions touched on criminal justice. There were significant decisions involving the First Amendment, the Sixth Amendment, and federal criminal statutes. Each of these is discussed in turn.

States living in glasshouses …: Why fighting domestic insurgency changes how countries vote in the UN human rights council

How do conflicts within a country's borders affect its behavior beyond them? We argue that fighting insurgencies at home shapes a country's human rights posture at the UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC). States often suppress insurgencies using methods that violate their international human rights commitments. They are therefore hesitant to condemn other countries’ alleged violations for fear of reciprocal condemnation of their own actions. This is especially true in countries with greater media freedom where the media is more likely to hold the state accountable for human rights violations, and to highlight its apparent hypocrisy internationally. Such states, we argue, are more likely to vote against or abstain from resolutions that target individual states for human rights transgressions. We test this claim with a global statistical analysis of country voting patterns at the UNHRC from 1973 to 2017. Our results yield new insights into the determinants of countries’ voting behavior in multilateral human rights fora.

Association Between Partisan Affiliation of State Governments and State Mortality Rates Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Increasing polarization of states reached a high point during the COVID-19 pandemic, when the party affiliation of elected officials often predicted their policy response. The health consequences of these divisions are unclear. Prior studies compared mortality rates based on presidential voting patterns, but few considered the partisan orientation of state officials. This study examined whether the partisan orientation of governors or legislatures was associated with mortality outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic. Data on deaths and the partisan orientation of governors and legislators were obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the National Conference of State Legislatures, respectively. Linear regression was used to measure the association between Republican representation (percentage of seats held) in legislatures and (1) age-adjusted, all-cause mortality rates (AAMRs) in 2015-2021 and (2) excess death rates during three phases of the COVID-19 pandemic, controlling for median household income, the prevalence of four risk factors (obesity, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, heart attack, stroke), and state policy orientation. Associations between excess death rates and the governor's party were also examined. States with Republican governors or greater Republican representation in legislatures experienced higher AAMRs during 2015-2021, lower excess death rates during Phase 1 of the COVID-19 pandemic (weeks ending March 28, 2020, through June 13, 2020), and higher excess death rates in Phases 2 and 3 (weeks ending June 20, 2020, through April 30, 2022; p < 0.05). Most associations lost statistical significance after adjustment for control variables. Mortality was higher in states with Republican governors and greater Republican legislative representation before and during much of the pandemic. Observed associations could be explained by the adverse effects of policy choices, reverse causality (e.g., popularity of Republican candidates in states with lower socioeconomic and health status), or unmeasured factors that predominate in states with Republican leaders.

Voting in the shadow of Russian aggression. Evidence from the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe 2012–2016

ABSTRACT The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) is not just the oldest but also the most institutionalised and powerful international parliamentary assembly. As transnational parliamentary body with the Russian Federation and Ukraine among its members, it showcases a laboratory for transnational parliamentary voting behaviour in the context of international geopolitical conflicts. We theorise how geopolitical aggression between member states change the voting pattern in the assembly. Whereas we generally assume a partisan cleavage as the main sorting mechanism, we theorise that this dimension will diminish under geopolitical threat. To test our claims, we explore voting patterns in the PACE around the Russian annexation of Crimea 2014. Using all contested votes from 2012 to 2016, we find that voting positions are structured around national interests in times of geopolitical tensions whereas a left-right cleavage emerges once the aggressor (i.e. Russia) was absent from the PACE.

The Influence of Political Advertising on the Voting Patterns of Rural Residents in Electoral Processes: A Study on the Role of Radio Campaigns

The Influence of Political Advertising on the Voting Patterns of Rural Residents in Electoral Processes: A Study on the Role of Radio Campaigns

Effect of Living in an AAPI Ethnic Enclave on AAPI Voter Registration

Due to the rapidly increasing immigrant population in the United States, particularly among AAPI individuals, more AAPI immigrants are beginning to choose to live in ethnic enclaves. Past research concludes that the ethnic makeup of a certain location can affect how often the residents of that location register to vote. This study was conducted to explore the effect of AAPI ethnic enclaves on AAPI voter registration. This study is quantitative in nature and the data was collected from available data on the voter registration of counties across the United States that contain ethnic enclaves. This paper identifies the percentage of AAPI people that turned out to vote in each enclave as compared to the surrounding counties with no ethnic enclave, in order to analyze the differences in AAPI voter registration in the enclave compared to outside of the enclave. To minimize the scope of the research, case studies were designated to compare them to other neighboring counties that did not have AAPI ethnic enclaves and observe the voting patterns between AAPI residents that were living in close proximity and those that were not. The overall trend observed by the data collected was that the presence of ethnic enclaves produces an increase in voter registration compared to neighboring counties without such ethnic enclaves. This study concludes that an increase in proximity to other AAPI individuals is associated with a corresponding increase in voter registration.

Strategic Coordination in the 2021 Russian Legislative Election: Effects and Counterbalances

Abstract The study is devoted to strategic coordination represented as a list of “smart voting” candidates for single-member districts at the State Duma election on September 19, 2021. There is a great deal of skepticism in the literature that patterns of strategic voting can be found nationwide in Russia because of the prevalence of the personal vote in ticket splitting. The analysis of the election has confirmed that the effect of “smart voting” is rather small in contrast to the personal vote. Therefore, the attempt of the Russian non-systemic opposition to coordinate electorates strategically has not yet been an effective tool to mobilize voters on a country-wide scale. The study has also revealed strong counterbalances to “smart voting” like the incumbency advantage of United Russia’s nominees and the spoiler effect produced by candidates from the spoiler parties like the Communists of Russia and Party of Pensioners.

Renegotiating in good faith: How international treaty revisions can deepen cooperation

International agreements are often understood to help governments make credible commitments to future policy by limiting their ability to renege on their promises. Renegotiations of agreements are accordingly viewed as a threat to cooperation, since renegotiations call past commitments into question. But we know little about the frequency or nature of treaty renegotiations. When are international agreements renegotiated, and what effect does renegotiation have on international cooperation? Do most renegotiations indeed aim to backtrack on past commitments? Using the topical context of the trade regime, I collect new data on international treaty revisions, covering 310 preferential trade agreements signed since the year 2000. Around a quarter of these agreements have been amended in some form, and the supermajority of amendments result not in scaled back agreements, but in deeper commitments. Survival analysis shows that ‘like-minded’ countries with a shared language and similar voting patterns at the UN General Assembly are most likely to revise their commitments. In contrast, I do not find evidence to support the view of PTA revisions as ‘backsliding’ on past commitments. The effects of revisions on trade cooperation support the more cooperative view of revisions. An error-correction model shows revisions are associated with a long-run increase in export volumes. Renegotiations are not breakdowns in international relations, but opportunities for governments to renew their commitment to cooperation.

Factors Associated with Vaccine Hesitancy in the State of Alaska.

Vaccine hesitancy (VH) is a major public health problem which includes not only concerns about vaccine, but often includes beliefs not aligned with evidence. The etiology of VH is complicate, including genuine concerns about vaccine safety to beliefs in disproven or unsubstantiated theories. Understanding VH includes determining the factors associated with people most likely to be susceptible. To identify characteristics of persons more likely to have VH based on perceived vaccine safety. We conducted a cross sectional, targeted online survey of 1,024 respondents. The survey collected data on demographics and vaccine beliefs. A seven-question VH scale was created based on an extensive literature review. When measured, this scale had high internal validity based on Cronbach's Alpha (α = 0.80, 95% CI, 0.79, 0.82) and provided a continuous measurement to understand the VH degree. Persons reporting a conservative political ideology had the highest VH score ([Formula: see text] = 15.0), followed by other ([Formula: see text] =12.7), moderate ([Formula: see text] =9.29), and liberal ([Formula: see text] =6.72). Education level was another strong indicator of VH, decreasing from the highest score of high school graduates ( [Formula: see text] = 13.2) to graduate degree holders ([Formula: see text] = 9.22). The more conservative a person's political ideology, the higher the VHS. We asked for ideology, rather than political party, although they are related, they are not the same. Ideology influences more domains than voting patterns. Higher educational attainment shows a protective effect against VH. These findings have direct implication for public health interventions, new interventions should be designed to be more accessible for persons with less formal education and more amenable to persons who hold a more conservative ideology.

Ballot order effects in independent director elections

Using a sample of individual mutual voting records, we examine ballot order effects in independent director elections. Our results show that down-ballot directors receive considerably less opposition from shareholders. This result holds in a sample where directors are positioned alphabetically on the proxy ballot, and, thus unrelated to the directors’ ability or position on the board. We find that the ballot order effect strengthens in settings where the ballot is more complex and shareholders are less attentive. These results suggest that investors, confronted with repeated decision making across multiple proxy votes, are subject to the choice fatigue bias that affects their voting patterns when electing directors. Furthermore, we find that the ballot order effect impacts director career concerns; although down-ballot directors are less likely to receive shareholder opposition, when they are opposed, they are more likely to leave the board. These findings, which document a systematic bias in the proxy voting process, are relevant to regulators and practitioners given the impact proxy voting has on firm governance.

At the Intersection of Gender and Party: Legislative Freedom

This paper examines the conditional effects of legislator gender, party, and key district-level characteristics on patterns of roll-call votes. I propose and test a theory of legislative freedom conceptualized as a member of Congress’s ability to defect from their party in roll-call votes. I argue that women members of Congress (MCs) will be more able to exercise legislative freedom in women-friendly districts. I expect both Democratic and Republican women MCs representing women-friendly districts will be more likely than those representing districts that are less women-friendly to defect from party and that the women-friendly district effect will be stronger for Republican women MCs. To test these hypotheses, I use roll-call voting data, women-friendly district data (Palmer and Simon 2006), and original data collected on members of the U.S. House beginning with the 103rd Congress. In this paper, I further explore the proposed theory of legislative freedom to examine recent high-profile cases of women MCs defecting from the Republican party and the conditions in which they exercise this freedom.

Baseline comparative analysis and review of election forensics: Application to Ghana's 2012 and 2020 presidential elections

Many allegations have been levelled against the electoral process of many countries across the world by most opposition leaders, especially when they lose a presidential election e.g. Ghana in 2012 and 2020. Therefore, the need to apply election forensic techniques to the certified election results data of valid votes count to statistically verify if some suspected or possible anomalies and irregularities exist in the voting pattern. This paper seeks to provide a comprehensive review of election forensics techniques and make a comparative analysis of Benford's Second-order test of conformity (using the first two digits) and Hartigans' dip test of unimodality to examine the existence of possible anomalies and irregularities in the 2012 and 2020 presidential elections held in Ghana. The findings of the two tests suggest that the electoral process produced possible anomalous data in the 2012 presidential election results (with an overall 16.67% suspected anomalies), whilst possible non-anomalous data was produced in the 2020 presidential election results (with an overall 0% suspected anomaly) of valid votes count. Therefore, the study recommends that for better statistical data analysis on election anomaly detection, Benford's test of conformity and Hartigans' dip test of unimodality should serve as baseline tests (initial screening tools), highlighting areas that may require further investigation or more rigorous analysis and progressively dig deeper into the application of finite mixture fraud models and machine learning techniques. In spite of the promising results Benford's Law, dip test, machine learning algorithms, and network analysis have produced in detecting irregularities in election data, real-world applications remain challenging, particularly when dealing with complex and evolving forms of fraud. Therefore, there is the need for continuous research and innovation to improve the accuracy and effectiveness of these methods and promote transparency and accountability in democratic societies.

Assessing Regional Variation in Support for the Radical Right-Wing Party ‘Alternative for Germany’ (AfD)—A Novel Application of Institutional Anomie Theory across German Districts

The paper at hand aims to address a research gap by examining the spatial impact of economic and non-economic institutions on regional variation in the support for the German populist far-right party ‘Alternative for Germany (AfD)’. Adopting an interdisciplinary approach and drawing on institutional anomie theory, the study explores the relationship between economic dominance—economic inequality and economic strength—and regional AfD vote share, as well as the role of non-economic institutions in shaping support for the party. Using various regional indicators, the study assesses the strength of different institutions and their impact on the AfD’s electoral results in the year 2021 across 401 German districts (NUTS 3-level). The results point to significant differences between eastern and western Germany in the analysis of regional populist voting patterns. Economic dominance emerges as a stronger predictor of the AfD’s vote share in eastern regions. However, the findings on the protective effect of strong non-economic institutions against AfD voting are ambiguous and partly contrary to theoretical expectations. Overall, the study’s findings show that the newly introduced indicators deduced from institutional anomie theory contribute to the existing literature to help better understand regional variances in AfD support. Furthermore, the study contributes to the existing literature on the rise of contemporary radical right movements by employing Karl Polanyi’s framework of ‘disembedded’ markets. In doing so, it sheds light on the complex interplay between social change, anomic tendencies, and the growth of radical right movements in capitalist societies.

The Case for Neutrality: Understanding African Stanceson the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The war in Ukraine is impacting most countries in the world. Economically, prices of goods and services are rising and manycountries around the world are experiencing energy crises that can be linked to the war in Ukraine. Politically, fracturesare appearing in long-established political structures with many countries around the world deciding on how to respondto the war in Ukraine based on their political, economic, and strategic interests. Surprisingly, Africa is generating a lot ofattention due to the stance of several notable countries – including some seen as key allies of Western countries. Contraryto expectations that most African countries except those ruled by despots would follow the West in condemning and puttingpressure on Putin to end the war, many African countries chose to stay neutral without condemning Russia or supportingresolutions to put pressure on Putin to end the war. This article has explored not only the role of neo-imperialism in shiftingpolitical alliances away from the West as well as a key factor fostering neutrality, but also other factors. It has made use ofUN resolution voting patterns as well as statements made by African leaders as lenses through which the stances of Africanleaders can be understood. The article “The Case for Neutrality: Understanding African Stances on the Russia-Ukraine Conflict” by Olayinka Ajala is translated and published with permission of the author and и Journal of Military and Strategic Studies, where it was originally published in English (Journal of Military and Strategic Studies (2022), vol. 22, iss. 2). Available at: https://www.mapleleafnavy.com/index.php/2023/02/16/journal-of-military-andstrategic-studies-volume-22-issue-2/.

Slavkov Triangle as a Minilateral Grouping Within the European Union: A Quantitative Analysis

By taking the main aspirations of the minilateralism as a theoretical framework, this research aims to investigate the origins and prospects of the Slavkov Triangle, which was initiated as a new regional platform between Austria, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia in 2015. The main motivation of the grouping has been to enhance the cooperation of these States in various areas, ranging from energy security, transport infrastructure, youth employment and cross-border relations to the social dimension of European integration. The regional platform was regarded as problematic as an alternative to the Visegrad cooperation, since it would imply the isolation of Hungary and Poland. Forming a response to these inquiries, this article aims to find out whether the Slavkov Triangle presents a new, sustainable and alternative central European format. In this respect, the focal point of the research is to answer the question whether the Slavkov Triangle fits theoretically to the traditional ‘minilateral’ grouping definition within the European Union (EU). To reveal whether the members of the Triangle have adopted a concrete joint position in EU decision-making, this paper examines the voting patterns of the members of the Triangle by conducting a quantitative analysis of the voting record of the members of the Triangle in the Council of the EU. The empirical analysis will show the degree to which these countries vote together as a minilateral group. The time frame is designated in two-time spans. The first time span focuses on the time between 2010 and 2015, while the second time span covers voting records from 2015 (the beginning of the initiative) until 2022 November (the most recent date of the voting data that is publicly available). This would help grasp the comparative case basis of voting records of these member states before and after the Triangle. In this way, the current study empirically contributes to the burgeoning scholarly literature on regional groupings within the EU.

Shaping the liberal international order from the inside: A natural experiment on China’s influence in the UN human rights council

Scholars have long discussed whether the rise of China poses a threat to the Liberal International Order. However, there are methodological challenges to studying the effect of a rising power on established norms. In particular, the participation of rising powers in the established order is not exogenously determined. To make an empirical contribution to this debate, we focus on Beijing’s influence as a member of the Human Rights Council. We exploit the fact that China’s membership in the Council is determined by an exogenous membership rule and implement a matching technique to test whether China has influenced the voting patterns of the other member states on identical recurring resolutions. We find that China’s presence in the Council systematically alters the voting behavior of other states in favor of China’s interest, and that this change is larger when it comes to the enforcement of human rights through international criticism. To delve into the mechanisms underlying these findings, we conduct in-depth interviews with experienced diplomats at the UN Human Rights Council.

The Geography of Racially Polarized Voting: Calibrating Surveys at the District Level

Debates over racial voting, and over policies to combat vote dilution, turn on the extent to which groups’ voting preferences differ and vary across geography. We present the first study of racial voting patterns in every congressional district (CD) in the United States. Using large-sample surveys combined with aggregate demographic and election data, we find that national-level differences across racial groups explain 60% of the variation in district-level voting patterns, whereas geography explains 30%. Black voters consistently choose Democratic candidates across districts, whereas Hispanic and white voters’ preferences vary considerably across geography. Districts with the highest racial polarization are concentrated in the parts of the South and Midwest. Importantly, multiracial coalitions have become the norm: in most CDs, the winning majority requires support from non-white voters. In arriving at these conclusions, we make methodological innovations that improve the precision and accuracy when modeling sparse survey data.