Voting Outcomes Research Articles

Does Disclosure Regulation Affect Mutual Fund Families’ Proxy Voting?

ABSTRACT Nonactivist investors that own more than 5 percent of a firm must report their holdings by filing a 13G in which they must commit to not influencing control of the firm. Mutual fund families are the most common investors filing 13Gs. I study whether the 13G requirement affects mutual fund families’ voting in proxy contests. I find mutual fund families that file the form are less likely to vote for activist proposals than are those that do not, suggesting that the requirement discourages mutual fund families from supporting activists who seek to influence control of the firm. The effects strengthen when vote outcomes directly affect the firm’s control and when activists pose a higher threat to the firm. I further document that the aggregate voting power of 13G-filing mutual fund families correlates with management winning contested votes and retaining board seats during proxy contests. Data Availability: Data are available from the public sources cited in the text. JEL Classifications: G34; G23; G38; K22; L51; M12.

Fair voting outcomes with impact and novelty compromises? Unravelling biases in electing participatory budgeting winners.

Participatory budgeting, as a paradigm for democratic innovations, engages citizens in the distribution of a public budget to projects, which they propose and vote for implementation. So far, voting algorithms have been proposed and studied in social choice literature to elect projects that are popular, while others prioritize a proportional representation of voters' preferences, for instance, the rule of equal shares. However, the anticipated impact and novelty in the broader society by the winning projects, as selected by different algorithms, remains totally under-explored, lacking both a universal theory of impact for voting and a rigorous unifying framework for impact and novelty assessments. This article tackles this grand challenge towards new axiomatic foundations for designing effective and fair voting methods. This is through new and striking insights derived from a large-scale analysis of biases over 345 real-world voting outcomes, characterized for the first time by a novel portfolio of impact and novelty metrics. We find strong causal evidence that equal shares comes with impact loss in several infrastructural projects of different cost levels that have been so far over-represented. However, it also comes with a novel, yet over-represented, impact gain in welfare, education and culture. We discuss the broader implications of these results and how impact loss can be mitigated at the stage of campaign design and project ideation.This article is part of the theme issue 'Co-creating the future: participatory cities and digital governance'.

Realization of a hybrid multi-qubit quantum phase gate in circuit QED

We propose to implement a hybrid multi-qubit quantum phase gate based on a setup comprising multiple microwave cavities coupled to a common superconducting transmon qutrit in the circuit quantum electrodynamics. The function of this hybrid quantum phase gate is that a phase related to the total number of cavities in non-vacuum state will be introduced when the transmon qubit is in an excited state. Furthermore, we propose an application, quantum voting machine, with this hybrid quantum gate. This scheme is scalable and simple to operate, requiring just a single step and necessitating only the reading of quantum states of one target qubit. While for quantum voting machine, it ensures the verifiability of the voting results through the measurement of the phase information of the target qubit. Additionally, the anonymity of the voters is ensured as the voting outcome is solely tied to the total number of affirmative votes. Numerical simulations indicate the feasibility of this hybrid quantum gate and quantum voting machine within the current quantum technology.

Regional differences in diagnosis and management of cow's milk allergy.

Various guidelines for the diagnosis and management of cow's milk allergy (CMA) have been published. This study aimed to compare voting outcomes of experts from Mexico, the Middle East, and the European Society of Pediatric Gastroenterology Hepatology and Nutrition (ESPGHAN) on statements regarding CMA. The 3 expert groups voted on the same 10 statements. Each participant voted anonymously using a score of 0-9 (≥6 meant agreement; <5 reflected disagreement). If <75% of the participants agreed with the statement, it was rejected. None of the groups was aware of the voting outcomes of another group. There was broad consensus amongst the 3 groups. Agreement was reached that infant colic as a single manifestation is not suggestive of CMA. All groups confirmed that an extensively hydrolysed formula is the preferred elimination diet in mild/moderate CMA cases; however, hydrolysed rice formula is an alternative. Amino acid-based formulas should be reserved for infants with severe symptoms. The discrepancy in voting outcomes regarding soy formulas highlights the differences in opinions. Two of 13 ESPGHAN experts (15%), 1 of 14 Middle East experts (7%), and 6 of 26 Mexican experts (23%) disagreed with the statement that soy formula should not be the first choice for the diagnostic elimination diet but can be considered in some cases for economic, cultural, and palatability reasons. All of the ESPGHAN and Mexican experts agreed that there was no added value of probiotics, prebiotics, or synbiotics to the efficacy of elimination diets on CMA, whereas 3 of 14 Middle East experts (21%) determined that there was sufficient evidence. Although all statements were accepted by the 3 groups, there were relevant differences illustrating variations according to geography, culture, cost, and formula availability. These findings emphasize the need for region-specific guidelines.

LLM Voting: Human Choices and AI Collective Decision-Making

This paper investigates the voting behaviors of Large Language Models (LLMs), specifically GPT-4 and LLaMA-2, their biases, and how they align with human voting patterns. Our methodology involved using a dataset from a human voting experiment to establish a baseline for human preferences and conducting a corresponding experiment with LLM agents. We observed that the choice of voting methods and the presentation order influenced LLM voting outcomes. We found that varying the persona can reduce some of these biases and enhance alignment with human choices. While the Chain-of-Thought approach did not improve prediction accuracy, it has potential for AI explainability in the voting process. We also identified a trade-off between preference diversity and alignment accuracy in LLMs, influenced by different temperature settings. Our findings indicate that LLMs may lead to less diverse collective outcomes and biased assumptions when used in voting scenarios, emphasizing the need for cautious integration of LLMs into democratic processes.

Proxy Advisory Firms and Corporate Shareholder Engagement

Abstract We study how Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) affect firms’ engagement with shareholders. Our analyses exploit a quasi-natural experiment using say-on-pay voting outcomes near a threshold that triggers ISS to review engagement activities. Firms receiving ISS treatment exhibit swift and substantive increases in extensive and intensive margins of engagement, especially when their boards have higher agency conflicts and directors are more likely to lose voting support from ISS. Increases in engagement persist over time, and shareholders appear to value the increased engagement. Collectively, we shed light on an unexplored channel through which ISS positively influences firms’ governance and information environments.

Caring for minorities: The Flexible Decision Rule

AbstractSimple majority rule disregards the interests of the losing minority; their vote does not affect the outcome. When vote outcomes are narrow, close to 50% of voters, the concerns of a significant part of the voters are disregarded. This increases polarization in the population and endangers democracy. This paper proposes a new procedure for political decisions by referendums. The Flexible Decision Rule formally takes into account the percentage of voters accepting or rejecting a proposal. The higher the share y of voters accepting it, the more strongly the proposal is to be put into reality; the lower y is, the less strongly the proposal is to be put into reality. This procedure explicitly considers the concerns of both the supporters and the opponents thus raising the fairness of the vote procedure. In contrast to majority voting, each vote marginalizes the outcome and therefore raises the incentive to participate in the vote increase.

Estimator Comparison for the Prediction of Election Results

Cluster randomized experiments and estimator comparisons are well-documented topics. In this paper, using the datasets of the popular vote in the presidential elections of the United States of America (2012, 2016, 2020), we evaluate the properties (SE, MSE) of three cluster sampling estimators: Ratio estimator, Horvitz–Thompson estimator and the linear regression estimator. While both the Ratio and Horvitz–Thompson estimators are widely used in cluster analysis, we propose a linear regression estimator defined for unequal cluster sizes, which, in many scenarios, performs better than the other two. The main objective of this paper is twofold. Firstly, to indicate which estimator is most suited for predicting the outcome of the popular vote in the United States of America. We do so by applying the single-stage cluster sampling technique to our data. In the first partition, we use the 50 states plus the District of Columbia as primary sampling units, whereas in the second one, we use 3112 counties instead. Secondly, based on the results of the aforementioned procedure, we estimate the number of clusters in a sample for a set standard error while also considering the diminishing returns from increasing the number of clusters in the sample. The linear regression estimator is best in the majority of the examined cases. This type of comparison can also be used for the estimation of any other country’s elections if prior voting results are available.

An Analysis of the Inconsistency of Political Party Vote Outcomes in the 2024 General Election: A Case Study in Semarang City

Electoral inconsistencies in open-list proportional systems and model elections challenge discussion of factor complexity. This research investigates the factors influencing political party votes in the 2024 general election, with a focus on five polling stations in Semarang City. The purpose of this study is to determine the factors that drive the consistency and inconsistency of political party vote results in Semarang City. It is known that there are variations in vote acquisition among political parties in the DPR, provincial DPRD, and city DPRD elections, reflecting inconsistencies in voting behavior. This research highlights key factors such as the electoral system, local issues, negative or positive evaluations of party elites, and the practice of clientelism as the basis for why votes shift from one party to another. Finally, it provides insights into the researcher's overview at the polling station level, particularly in Semarang City in the context of the 2024 general election, and suggests the need for further combined research, such as expanding the scope of respondents and increasing the number of respondents.

Quantum Voting Machine Encoded with Microwave Photons

Abstract We propose a simple quantum voting machine using microwave photon qubit encoding, based on a setup comprising multiple microwave cavities and a coupled superconducting flux qutrit. This approach primarily relies on a multi-control single-target quantum phase gate. The scheme offers operational simplicity, requiring only a single step, while ensuring verifiability through the measurement of a single qubit phase information to obtain the voting results. And it provides voter anonymity, as the voting outcome is solely tied to the total number of affirmative votes. Our quantum voting machine also has scalability in terms of the number of voters. Additionally, the physical realization of the quantum voting machine is general and not limited to circuit QED. Quantum voting machine can be implemented as long as the multi-control single-phase quantum phase gate is realized in other physical systems. Numerical simulations indicate the feasibility of this quantum voting machine within the current quantum technology.

Using big data to study small places: Small‐town voting patterns in the 2020 U.S. presidential election

AbstractDifferences between urban, suburban, and rural voting outcomes in U.S. presidential elections is a common area of both academic research and news media analysis. Most scrutiny and mapping of the geography of the presidential vote is done at the county scale, with counties described as either urban, suburban, or rural. Small towns are often assumed to mirror surrounding rural areas, with little research examining election results and historic patterns in these places. This is understandable: Accurate spatial data at a fine scale for national elections is difficult and, in some states, impossible, to obtain. Research presented here (in states where precinct‐level data is readily available) indicates that while most small towns indeed voted Republican in the 2020 U.S. election, a closer inspection indicates that they are more Democratic‐leaning than surrounding rural areas. This research indicates the value of studying these fine‐scale data as well as the challenges faced in acquiring these data and resulting lack of research and visualization of these differences.

The electoral effect of pork barrel politics: evidence from England

AbstractThis study examines the effect of the allocation of centralised funding on electoral support for the incumbent by utilising the introduction of the “Towns Fund” in England in 2019 as a natural experiment. For causal identification, I leverage a difference-in-difference design to examine the electoral effect of this fund. My findings suggest that providing funding to constituencies significantly increased the vote share of the Conservative Party in the General Election in 2019. However, in a subset of constituencies in which the Labour Party constitutes the incumbent, the findings can not be replicated for all specifications and robustness checks. Furthermore, I do not find consistent support that the effect is stronger in economically deprived constituencies. Similarly, the results suggest that the voting outcome depends on the total amount of funding being received, however, this finding does not reach statistical significance. These results complement the literature by providing empirical evidence for pork barrel as a functioning means for vote buying for the Conservative government in 2019 in England. Furthermore, this paper emphasises that partisanship should be considered as a mediating variable when analysing the political effect of providing place-based funding.

Politicians, Newspapers, and Immigration Referendums: Exploring the Boundaries of Media Effects

ABSTRACT Does acquiring a media company pay off politically? A growing body of literature suggests that politically motivated media owners shape media coverage and that media coverage affects political behavior; however, we know little about the conditionality of such effects. To shed light on this question, I draw on a theory of media power to argue that there are conditions under which we should not expect slanted media to affect political outcomes: if media plurality and voters’ understanding of media owners’ political motives are sufficiently high. I illustrate empirically that such conditions exist by exploiting the sudden takeover of the Swiss regional daily Basler Zeitung by a leading right-wing, anti-immigrant politician. Drawing on quantitative text analysis methods and panel data analyses, I find that the takeover led to a right-wing turn in the newspaper’s immigration coverage and a reduced circulation rate. However, there is no evidence that it meaningfully affected local immigration vote outcomes. These findings highlight that while rich politicians might be able to shape media coverage, there are conditions under which slanted media coverage does not significantly move vote outcomes in the preferred direction.

The democracy effect: A weights-based estimation strategy

Dal Bó et al. (2010) show experimentally that the effect of a policy may be greater when it is democratically selected than when it is exogenously imposed. In this paper we propose a new and simpler estimation strategy that does not require information on the vote of subjects in the exogenous treatment. The new estimation strategy is based on calculating the average behavior under democracy by weighting the behavior of each type of voter by its prevalence in the whole population (and not conditional on the vote outcome). We derive the distribution of this new weights-based estimator of the democracy effect and show it eliminates selection effects under certain conditions. We apply the new estimation strategy to the data in Dal Bó et al. (2010) and to the data from a new experiment for which we cannot use the previous estimation strategy as we do not have information on how subjects would have voted in the exogenous treatment. We find a significant democracy effect in the former but not on the latter application.

Campaign Spending and Its Effect during the 2013 and 2016 Elections in the Province of Cebu

Elections play a crucial role in legitimizing authority in democratic societies, yet the impact of campaign spending necessitates further investigation. This research delves into the influence of campaign expenditures on election outcomes in Cebu province between 2013 and 2016. Analysis of the Statement of Contributions and Expenditures (SOCE), this study explores how candidates make decisions regarding the allocation of campaign funds. Employing a mixed-method research approach, quantitative techniques like regression analysis are utilized to examine the relationship between spending and election results, while qualitative methods including scrutinizing SOCE documents and conducting interviews with candidates and COMELEC officials shed light on spending patterns and offer recommendations for policy enhancements. Cebu Provincial data elections spanning 2013 and 2016 reveal a strong positive correlation between election spending and votes. Travel expenses, compensating campaigners, and communication demonstrate statistically insignificant correlations with voting outcomes (p-values of 0.842, 0.771, and 0.811, respectively). Similarly, printed materials and the employment of watchers’ expenditures display slightly positive correlations but lack statistical significance (p-values of 0.239 and 0.984). Moreover, campaign headquarters, meetings, and rallies show no significant correlations (p-values of 0.841 and 0.458). Advertising expenses emerged as the sole statistically significant factor in 2013 (p = 0.000), indicating a substantial 22.6 increase in votes for every 55,895 pesos spent. In the 2013 elections, only campaign paraphernalia and media spending correlated with votes; conversely, media spending was the sole positive correlation in 2016. Findings suggest that wealth played a significant role in the 2013 election, undermining the democratic principle of meritocracy where the most deserving candidate should prevail. Proposed policy changes include criminalizing campaign malpractices, ensuring candidate qualifications are rigorously vetted, and enhancing voter education programs spearheaded by academia. These measures are essential to mitigate the undue influence of money in politics and uphold the integrity of our electoral system.

Quantification of the Effects of Voter Protocols on the Outcome of Approval Voting

Quantification of the Effects of Voter Protocols on the Outcome of Approval Voting

European solidarity and multi-speed integration: Results of a laboratory experiment

The conflict around grain and flour imports from Ukraine to the European Union, which made the interests of Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia contradict the interests of the majority of member states, and which was taking place having mass farmers’ protests in the background, invites revisiting European solidarity. Any political decision adopted on the EU level by voting of all member states indicates solidarity among them. Authors of this article, however, suggest distinguishing between two types of solidarity, namely the solidarity of the majority with the minority, and the solidarity of the minority with the majority. Game theory provided with the means allowing suggesting the behavioral matrix, which helps distinguishing between the two types of solidarity. Negotiations preceding formal voting help achieving solidarity of both types; those negotiations can be bilateral or multilateral.The results of the experiment staged, again, with the help of game theory demonstrate that solidarity with the majority emerges more often after bilateral negotiations, while solidarity with the minority emerges more often after multilateral negotiations. That conclusion allows recommending choosing the format of negotiations depending on the expected outcome of consequent voting. Based on the experience of the European Union, that recommendation is applicable to all cases of regional integration, first of all, to the Eurasian Economic Union. It also helps explaining why despite the mounting number of the demands for solidarity that the majority of EU member states places on the minority, the latter fails to consolidate and thus to endanger the future of the entire European integration project.

Remote electronic voting in elections in Russia: State, problems, prospects

The paper examines the Russian experience of introducing remote electronic voting into the electoral process. By referring to the experience of other countries, we highlight the positive and negative aspects of remote electronic voting. The interest of states therein is due to the capability of combating the electorate absenteeism at polling stations for voting. Along with that, the results of surveying Russians on the use of remote electronic voting in elections show that some voters do not trust the outcomes of such voting for fear of fraud. We accumulated preferential provisions that constitute the interest of states in remote electronic voting. Blockchain technologies used in electronic voting are diverse and affect the public’s attitude to the voting results in different ways, many electoral process participants do not understand the technical component of the electronic program. Russia uses a closed blockchain, therefore only the electoral process participants having a special key can view the data. It turned out that blockchain-based voting does not solve fundamental security problems, but on the contrary is technically more vulnerable than traditional paper ballot voting or postal voting. In Russia, legal regulation relates more to the technical aspects of organizing and implementing remote electronic voting in elections, but does not solve all the problems, leaving many gaps for the guarantees of citizens’ electoral rights. Currently, the optimal model will be the combination of both traditional (paper ballot) and remote voting forms in order to reduce the risks of the latter, i. e. to apply a hybrid voting format in elections. Russian electoral legislation needs to be adapted to the hybrid format of elections with a paper ballot and an electronic ballot, providing voting rights of citizens and remote electronic voting.

A Case Study of the Consequences of Political Participation on Communities: North and South Cyprus Sample

As is known, the Cyprus Peace Negotiation have been continuing for more than fifty years. For more than forty years, people in Cyprus have been spending a conflict-free and peaceful life. In this study, the fifty-year process of Cyprus Peace Negotiation will be summarized and explained at large within the framework of public policy analysis, analysis phases, policy preparation/implementation methods and the role of institutions in the process. The voting of the 2004 Annan Plan between the Turkish Cypriots and the Greek Cypriots during this process and the effect of the voting outcome on the negotiation process will be discussed. With the opening of the border gates that provided controlled passage to northern and southern Cyprus shortly before the Annan Plan was put to a vote, the effects of the new conditions created by the collective and free contact of two populations on the negotiation process and the future apprehension of Turkish Cypriots will be analysed. Since the study involved theoretical approaches, indirect research method was adopted as a method and domestic and foreign sources were scanned within this framework. In parallel with this method, content analysis technique was used. According to the findings, such multilateral conflicts Generals and 22 UN Special Representative behind, there is the danger of the means to turn into a goal. This possibility should not be ignored and the content of the talks and the subject of negotiation in question must be preoccupied on. It is also cumbersome to maintain the peace and the human duty to endure this hardship. It is only possible to conclude the negotiations by agreeing on the acceptance and ingestion of these facts, and perhaps by agreeing on a number of boundary regulations and similar requirements. This means that all parties agree that the actual situation is the best solution.

Transplant selection simulation: Liver transplantation for alcohol-associated hepatitis.

Liver transplantation (LT) for alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) remains controversial due to concerns about candidate selection subjectivity, post-LT alcohol relapse, and the potential exacerbation of LT disparities. Our aim was to design, perform, and examine the results of a simulated selection of candidates for LT for AH. Medical histories, psychosocial profiles and scores, and outcomes of 4 simulation candidates were presented and discussed at 2 multidisciplinary societal conferences with real-time polling of participant responses. Candidate psychosocial profiles represented a wide spectrum of alcohol relapse risk. The predictive accuracy of four psychosocial scores, Dallas consensus criteria, sustained alcohol use post-LT, Stanford Integrated Psychosocial Assessment for Transplant, and QuickTrans, were assessed. Overall, 68 providers, mostly academic transplant hepatologists, participated in the simulation. Using a democratic process of selection, a significant majority from both simulations voted to accept the lowest psychosocial risk candidate for LT (72% and 85%) and decline the highest risk candidate (78% and 90%). For the 2 borderline-risk candidates, a narrower majority voted to decline (56% and 65%; 64% and 82%). Two out of 4 patients had post-LT relapse. Predictive accuracies of Dallas, Stanford Integrated Psychosocial Assessment for Transplant, and Quicktrans scores were 50%, while sustained alcohol use post-LT was 25%. The majority of voting outcomes were concordant with post-LT relapse in 3 out of 4 patients. When defining "success" in LT for AH, providers prioritized allograft health and quality of life rather than strict abstinence. In this simulation of LT for AH using a democratic process of selection, we demonstrate its potential as a learning model to evaluate the accuracy of psychosocial scores in predicting post-LT relapse and the concordance of majority voting with post-LT outcomes. Provider definitions of "success" in LT for AH have shifted toward patient-centered outcomes.