Politicians, Newspapers, and Immigration Referendums: Exploring the Boundaries of Media Effects

Abstract

ABSTRACT Does acquiring a media company pay off politically? A growing body of literature suggests that politically motivated media owners shape media coverage and that media coverage affects political behavior; however, we know little about the conditionality of such effects. To shed light on this question, I draw on a theory of media power to argue that there are conditions under which we should not expect slanted media to affect political outcomes: if media plurality and voters’ understanding of media owners’ political motives are sufficiently high. I illustrate empirically that such conditions exist by exploiting the sudden takeover of the Swiss regional daily Basler Zeitung by a leading right-wing, anti-immigrant politician. Drawing on quantitative text analysis methods and panel data analyses, I find that the takeover led to a right-wing turn in the newspaper’s immigration coverage and a reduced circulation rate. However, there is no evidence that it meaningfully affected local immigration vote outcomes. These findings highlight that while rich politicians might be able to shape media coverage, there are conditions under which slanted media coverage does not significantly move vote outcomes in the preferred direction.