Voter Bias Research Articles

Voter attitudes and politicians with health conditions and disabilities

AbstractBackgroundMillions of Americans live with chronic health conditions and disabilities. While disability and disabling conditions are common in the United States, the number of politicians and candidates with disclosed disabilities or chronic health conditions remains extremely low.ObjectivesThis study examines what drives the lack of descriptive representation of individuals with disabilities or chronic health conditions. In particular, it examines whether disability bias, or more specifically ableism, drives voter bias against politicians with health challenges and disabilities.MethodsThe analysis relies on two original surveys with samples of American respondents that match Census quotas on key indicators. The first survey was administered to more than 1800 U.S. respondents in 2018. The second survey was administered to 6345 U.S. respondents in 2020. The approach combines observational and experimental data, as well as quantitative and qualitative analysis.ResultsThe findings reveal that voters are significantly less likely to support candidates with disclosed disabilities or health conditions. Mental illness and HIV face the strongest discrimination, while physical challenges due to birth conditions like wheelchair usage and dwarfism are the least penalized. A combination of prejudice, negative character assessment, and electability concerns drive voter bias.ConclusionUnderstanding the barriers to the election of politicians with disabilities and chronic health conditions is crucial to improve the representation of marginalized communities, as descriptive representation improves public policy outcomes for marginalized communities.

Barking up the wrong tree? Voter bias and female underrepresentation in Japanese politics

Abstract Previous studies on gender bias in the evaluation of politicians by voters have reported mixed results. We seek to understand these mixed findings by focusing on Japan, where female political representation is the lowest among advanced democracies and gender stereotypes are prevalent. We consider that gender stereotypes and the dearth of women in politics affect the evaluation of politicians via two distinct mechanisms: biased beliefs and weak priors. The two mechanisms are assumed to run counter to each other, thus leading to the null or mixed findings for gendered evaluation reported by previous studies. To test our argument, we conduct a series of survey experiments in Japan. Our findings conform to neither of the two mechanisms. Even in a society with low female political representation, we find no evidence of the gendered evaluation of candidates by voters. We suggest that rather than biasing voters’ evaluation of candidates, gender stereotypes dissuade women from aspiring to a political career and elite electoral gatekeepers from selecting female candidates.

Too Young to Run? Voter Evaluations of the Age of Candidates

AbstractWhy do elected officials tend to be much older than most of their constituents? To understand the mechanisms behind the underrepresentation of young people in public office, we conducted two novel survey experiments in Japan. We asked voters in these experiments to evaluate the photos of hypothetical candidates while altering candidates’ faces using age regression and progression software. Contrary to the observed age demographics of politicians, the voters in our experiments strongly disliked older candidates but viewed younger and middle-aged candidates as equally favorable. Voters saw young candidates as less experienced but also more likely to focus on many policy issues over a longer period, including education, childcare, climate change, anti-corruption measures, and multiculturalism. Young voters especially liked young candidates, suggesting that greater youth turnout could increase youth representation. Conversely, elderly candidates were universally panned, seen as the least competent, least likely to focus on most policy issues, and least electable. Voter biases thus do not seem to be a driving factor behind the shortage of young politicians. To the contrary, voters appear perfectly willing to cast their ballots for young candidates.

Racial Bias and U.S. Presidential Candidate Preference

Abstract Much research has suggested that Republican candidates in U.S. presidential elections benefit from voter bias against non-White groups. The present study supplements this research by including in the analysis bias against Whites. Estimates from the American National Election Studies 2020 Time Series Study indicated that a nontrivial percentage of the U.S. population has a bias that disfavors Whites, with this bias more prevalent among Democrats than Republicans. Further analyses estimated the extent to which the type of voter racial bias that favors Republican presidential candidates offsets the type of voter racial bias that favors Democratic presidential candidates. Estimates for the 2020 U.S. presidential election indicated that the two-party vote share for Donald Trump was higher among voters who rated Whites, Blacks, Hispanics, and Asians/Asian-Americans equal to each other on 0-to-100 feeling thermometers than among the full population of two-party voters, suggesting that Donald Trump was disadvantaged on net by the electorate including racially biased voters. These results call into question research that has used an unrepresentative set of racial attitudes to suggest that, in recent U.S. presidential elections, only Republican candidates have benefitted from racial bias among the electorate.

Studying Representation and Equity-Seeking Candidates in Canadian Elections

Every election, as Canadians sit down at the polls to cast their votes, they ask: how truly representative are our elected officials? And how can we make politicians more representative of the public? As part of the USSRF, I provided important data to answer these questions. I studied how the barriers to elected office differ among equity-seeking groups, including women, BIPOC, and 2SLGBTQ+ people, and how parties can increase their representativeness. This research falls in three streams: data collection on federal candidates, data collection on provincial candidates, and a literature review of the role of voluntary targets to increase diversity and representation in political parties. The research on federal candidates has gathered important data on candidate race, 2SLGBTQ+ identities, and political experience from archived candidate biographies and news sources. The research on provincial candidates uses similar sources to extend analyses based on federal politics to provincial politics. The literature review draws on international examples to explore the impact of voluntary targets for representation within parties. These targets have historically not been a focus of study because the presumption is that voluntary targets will not be effective, but there is evidence that they have been increasingly effective in Canadian federal and provincial parties. By assessing the factors contributing to the representativeness (or under representativeness) of our elected officials, the research builds the groundwork for future work that compares party and voter biases across under-represented groups. The research engages with public debates in popular news media, social media, and non-profit/citizen groups surrounding the representation of women, BIPOC, and 2SLGBTQ+ people. The implications of this research are tangible for people, especially those belonging to marginalized groups, because the way we relate to the systems of power that govern us are crucial in understanding relationships of trust between citizens and the state.

Changes in voter bias in the associated press college football poll

ABSTRACT We evaluate whether biases found in the 2007 Associated Press poll have persisted. Data from the 2018 and 2019 pre-COVID Football Bowl Subdivision seasons show that geographic and recency biases have diminished. However, AP pollsters during 2018–19 appear to have favoured even more disproportionately Notre Dame and the teams from the five so-called Power-5 conferences than they did in 2007.

Primary Barriers to Working Class Representation

How do working class candidates perform in primary elections? Working class candidates rarely emerge, but existing evidence suggests workers perform as well as white-collar candidates once on the ballot. However, this evidence comes from studies of general elections. It is unknown whether these findings extend to other types of elections like primaries, where candidates compete without the political and financial backing of a party. We collect and analyze novel data describing the occupational background of all candidates who competed in U.S. House primaries between 2008 and 2016. The results show that working class candidates received an average vote share 24 percentage points lower than nonworkers and are 31 percentage points less likely to win their primaries. Controlling for other candidate, contest, and district characteristics helps to attenuate the performance gap. We find mixed evidence that fundraising and prior officeholding experience moderates workers' performance, but weak or no evidence that voter bias, party affiliation, or primary type do so. The study suggests that workers struggle to compete in primaries and calls for further research explaining what prevents workers from winning public office.

Gender differences and similarities in news media effects on political candidate evaluations: a meta-analysis

AbstractHow do different types of media coverage shape—and potentially bias—voter evaluations of women and men politicians? Theoretically reviewing 50 experimental studies and statistically synthesizing 671 evaluation outcomes from more than 23,000 participants, this meta-analytic review shows that gender bias in media-induced voter evaluations is conditional rather than universal. Our findings suggest that voters respond similarly to most media messages about women and men candidates. When gender-differentiated media effects are found, for instance, based on trait, appearance, or family coverage of politicians, this is mostly harmful for women candidates as it reaffirms gender stereotypical beliefs and lowers their viability ratings and vote preferences. Shedding light on the conditional nature of media-driven voter bias, this study adds to a better understanding of how the mediation of gender stereotypes sustains the underrepresentation of women in politics.

Voter Bias and the Partisan Gender-Gap in Office

Voter Bias and the Partisan Gender-Gap in Office

Use of fluorescence imaging and indocyanine green during thyroid and parathyroid surgery: Results of an intercontinental, multidisciplinary Delphi survey

BackgroundIn recent years, fluorescence imaging—relying both on parathyroid gland autofluorescence under near-infrared light and angiography using the fluorescent dye indocyanine green—has been used to reduce risk of iatrogenic parathyroid injury during thyroid and parathyroid resections, but no published guidelines exist regarding its use. In this study, orchestrated by the International Society for Fluorescence Guided Surgery, areas of consensus and nonconsensus were examined among international experts to facilitate future drafting of such guidelines. MethodsA 2-round, online Delphi survey was conducted of 10 international experts in fluorescence imaging use during endocrine surgery, asking them to vote on 75 statements divided into 5 modules: 1 = patient preparation and contraindications to fluorescence imaging (n = 11 statements); 2 = technical logistics (n = 16); 3 = indications (n = 21); 4 = potential advantages and disadvantages of fluorescence imaging (n = 20); and 5 = training and research (n = 7). Several methodological steps were taken to minimize voter bias. ResultsOverall, parathyroid autofluorescence was considered better than indocyanine green angiography for localizing parathyroid glands, whereas indocyanine green angiography was deemed superior assessing parathyroid perfusion. Additional surgical scenarios where indocyanine green angiography was thought to facilitate surgery are (1) when >1 parathyroid gland requires resection; (2) during redo surgeries, (3) facilitating parathyroid autoimplantation; and (4) for the predissection visualization of abnormal glands. Both parathyroid autofluorescence and indocyanine green angiography can be used during the same procedure and employing the same imaging equipment. However, further research is needed to optimize the dose and timing of indocyanine green administration. ConclusionThough further research remains necessary, using fluorescence imaging appears to have uses during thyroid and parathyroid surgery.

Explaining women's political underrepresentation in democracies with high levels of corruption

AbstractMany democracies with high levels of corruption are also characterized by low levels of women's political representation. Do women candidates in democracies with high levels of corruption face overt voter discrimination? Do gender dynamics that are unique to highly corrupt, democratic contexts influence citizens’ willingness to vote for women? We answer these questions using two separate sets of experiments conducted in Ukraine: two vignette experiments and a conjoint analysis. In line with existing cross-sectional research on Ukraine, our experiments reveal little evidence of direct voter bias against women candidates. Our conjoint analysis also offers novel insights into the preferences of Ukrainian voters, showing that both men and women voters place a great deal of value in anti-corruption platforms, but voters are just as likely to support women and men candidates who say they will fight corruption. Our analysis suggests that women's political underrepresentation in highly corrupt contexts is driven more by barriers that prevent women from winning party nominations and running for office in the first place, rather than overt discrimination at the polls.

Does corruption hinder female political participation? Evidence from a measure against organized crime

Abstract This article analyzes the effect of anti-corruption measures on female political empowerment. We exploit a measure that prescribes the dissolution of city councils for mafia infiltration, leading to an exogenous decrease in the level of corruption within local government. We find that the percentage of female councilors and aldermen elected after compulsory administrations, as well as the probability of a female mayor, sharply increases relative to the control group; the effect of the measure is decreasing over time. The evidence suggests that the most likely mechanism mediating the result relies on the reduction in the voter bias against women as policymakers rather than the (self-)selection of women (JEL D72, D78, J16, J71, I38).

Women's blame, men's merit? The effect of gender on voters' evaluation of ministers' governing performance

Research demonstrates how gender stereotypes affect voters' judgments of political candidates, resulting in a voter bias to the detriment of women candidates. However, little is known about how these stereotypes influence voters' judgments of women in executive office. In this study, we experimentally test the effect of ministers' gender on voters' evaluation of their governing performance in Flanders (Belgium). Given the gendered nature of perceptions of ‘agency’, we expect that voters are more likely to treat men as more responsible than women for changes that occur during their tenure. Our study finds that voters generally make no distinction between men and women ministers in the evaluation of their governing performance. However, women ministers' governing performance is evaluated less favorably for negative policy outcomes in masculine issues compared to negative policy outcomes in feminine issues. Taken together, these findings yield important insights into the biases women face against political leadership.

How does clarity of alternatives affect the electoral fortune of corrupt politicians?

This article lays out a theoretical framework for understanding the effects of the clarity of alternatives on corruption voting. Traditional approximations to the question of why corrupt politicians win elections focus on the limited availability of information and voter biases toward in-group candidates. I argue that while citizens are ready to punish corruption, the electoral toll for a corrupt candidate is reduced in settings of unclear electoral choices. I find support for this theoretical framework by examining the accountability enhancing consequences of the clarity of alternatives in Latin America. The results indicate that politicians running for office in settings of weak clarity of alternatives sustain less electoral damage than those running in settings of strong clarity of alternatives. The implication is that party decisions that increase voter uncertainty about the menu of choices contribute to the electoral fortune of corrupt politicians.

Female Candidate Performance and Gender Quotas: The Case of Ecuador

ABSTRACT Ecuador has one of the strongest electoral designs in terms of gender quotas in Latin America. However, there remains a significant gap between the number of women candidates and the number elected. To explain why a quota does not lead to an elected representation proportional to the quota we examine voter bias and elite bias in the legislative elections of 2013 and 2017. Results show gender bias toward female candidates, and not against, which is a surprising result in a country maintaining a culture of traditional gender roles on average. A breakdown of the voting patterns by gender, however, reveals that the overall voter preference for female candidates is driven entirely by stronger female same-gender voting than male same-gender voting. The lack of representation of women as frontrunners in a political party is likely to explain the gap between female candidates and elected members to the National Assembly. Elite bias against women, not voter bias, explains women’s electoral fortunes in Ecuador.

The Relevance of Religion for Political Office: Voter Bias Toward Candidates from Different Religious Backgrounds

Over the last several decades, Gallup data shows an increased willingness among members of the public to support presidential candidates from a wide range of religious backgrounds, though a nontrivial proportion of the public is still unwilling to vote for an Atheist, Mormon, or Muslim. What underlies this opposition? We argue that voters evaluate candidates from religious out-groups more negatively on a wide range of dimensions considered desirable for political office, and that this bias should be more pronounced among the highly religious. We show support for these arguments using a survey experiment fielded with YouGov. Atheists and Muslim candidates were perceived more negatively on a large set of traits considered desirable for political office compared to candidates from religious in-groups, and Mormon candidates fall somewhere in between. The Atheist and Muslim candidates were also perceived as less competent on a diverse set of issues.

Who Favours Men in Flexible-List PR Systems? An Analysis of Preferential Voting in the Czech Republic

The share of women in the Czech Republic’s lower chamber of Parliament remains persistently low in comparison to other European countries, and below the world average. However, in the last general election, we observed a significant rise in voters’ support for women, alongside slightly better women’s positions on candidate lists. A flexible-list proportional representation (PR) system allows both the nominating political party and the voters to influence the composition of the legislature. However, it is not yet clear whether the low descriptive representation of women is due to the voters, the parties or both. Our primary goal is to test the actual effect of the parties and the voters on the representation of women in the Czech Republic. We analyse the Czech Statistical Office’s open data on more than 16,000 cases of candidates who competed in eight Czech Chamber of Deputies elections between 1996 and 2021, and who were nominated by relevant political parties. As a dependent variable, we employ the share of voters casting preferential votes for a candidate, rather than the candidate’s success in winning a mandate, which allowed us to include smaller parties. In contradiction to the common expectation of the existence of voter bias, being a woman helped candidates get more preferential votes compared to men, not only in the last but also in four out of seven previous elections. We thus argue that it is not voters, but rather systemic factors related to parties that favour men in the Czech elections.

Gender Role Violations and Voter Prejudice: The Agentic Penalty Faced by Women Politicians

ABSTRACT Role Congruity Theory (RCT) broadly suggests that when women step into leadership roles, they violate the expectations of their role as women. This article uses RCT to develop and directly test theories related to which types of gender stereotype role violations might cause voter bias toward women politicians. We argue and find that voter prejudice most likely results from an agentic incongruity–punishing a woman candidate who violates her gender role by displaying agentic, dominant traits such as being intimidating or arrogant. Backlash for this type of role violation is strong when the election context favors male stereotypical strengths.

Media Discrimination and Gender Differences in Political Ambition in a Laboratory Experiment

Very little research has considered how media discrimination could impact men and women’s political ambition. Yet, media discrimination could impact both beliefs about gender roles and political competence, and beliefs about voter bias, both of which could decrease women’s political ambition and increase men’s. Alternatively, media discrimination could lead women to react against discrimination and be motivated politically. This study tests how political ambition of men and women is impacted by media discrimination in a campaign and election lab experiment. Media discrimination in this experiment under-reports on women and uses traditional, stereotypical depictions of men and women. The results suggest that in certain conditions, media discrimination in political news may lead to a reactance or positive challenge effect for women, increasing their political ambition. Men, instead, may feel an aversion to entering politics, lowering their political ambition.

Electoral Competition, Voter Bias, and Women in Politics

Abstract We quantify the implications of voter bias and electoral competition for politicians’ gender composition. Unfavorable voters’ attitudes toward women and local gender earnings gap correlate negatively with the share of female candidates in Parliamentary elections. Using within-candidate variation across the different polling stations of an electoral district in a given election year, we find that female candidates obtain fewer votes in municipalities with higher gender earnings gaps. We show theoretically that when voters are biased against women, parties facing gender quotas select male candidates in the most contestable districts. We find empirical support for such a strategic party response to voter gender bias. Simulating our calibrated model confirms that competition significantly hinders the effectiveness of gender quotas.