Voter Bias Research Articles

Women’s representation in politics: The effect of electoral systems

We study how electoral systems affect the presence of women in politics in the context of Spanish municipal elections, in which national law mandates that municipalities follow one of two electoral systems: a closed-list system in which voters pick one party-list, or an open-list system, in which voters pick individual candidates. Using a regression discontinuity design, we find that the closed-list system increases the share of women among candidates, councilors, and mayors, by 4.1, 4.8, and 7.1 percentage points, respectively. We develop a model that allows us to test for three possible mechanisms: gender differences in the supply of candidates between the electoral systems, voter bias, and party bias. Model estimation indicates that a combination of supply differences and party bias best explains the results.

The Persistence of Prejudice: Voters Strongly Penalize Candidates with HIV

Forty million people around the world and more than one million in the United States live with HIV. Despite the gains in the prevention and treatment of HIV due to medical advances and community advocacy, HIV/AIDS continues to claim lives and disproportionately affect marginalized communities. Stigma against people with HIV remains powerful. While individuals with HIV have gained some visibility in the media, the scarcity of politicians with HIV is striking. This article analyzes a possible reason: voter bias. We examine voters’ reactions to political candidates with HIV using original nationally representative survey experiments from the United States, the United Kingdom and New Zealand. Voters penalize candidates with HIV by 10–12 percentage points in the three countries. Prejudice, electability concerns, and the moral judgment that candidates are responsible for their HIV+ status explain bias. The lack of descriptive representation remains an obstacle to improved policy outcomes for this marginalized community.

Voters’ evaluation of (contra-)prototypical political candidates. An experimental test of the interaction of candidate gender and policy positions cues in Flanders (Belgium)

Following social psychological models of impression formation, information about candidates' policy positions shapes voters' impressions of their personal qualities (Rahn et al., 1990). This paper presents an experimental test of the impact of the inclusion of information about candidates' policy positions on the prevalence of issue competence stereotypes in Flanders (Belgium), i.e. the idea that male and female candidates have different areas of issue competence. Respondents are found to primarily base their evaluation of the presented candidates on the policy positions presented by the candidate and the extent to which they agree with the presented policy positions. It can therefore be concluded that the inclusion of information about candidates' policy positions trumps the effects of candidate gender on voters’ preferences. This decreased stereotype reliance is potentially beneficial for female candidates because it also decreases the chances of a voter bias.

Electoral rules and voter bias against female candidates in Brazilian congressional elections

ABSTRACT This paper examines whether and how electoral rules moderate the effect of voter bias on candidate choice. Voter bias against female candidates follows a pattern known as aversive sexism, which denotes that voters discriminate when the choice structure does not make the bias clear to others and to themselves. As a result, voters are less likely to vote for women when they can substitute ideologically close female candidates with male co-partisans. The paper uses survey data and a ballot experiment in Brazil to investigate why, contrary to conventional wisdom on the topic, voters are more likely to elect women running in plurality races for the Senate than in proportional races for the Chamber of Deputies. The results shed light on how institutions can produce voting patterns that harm the electoral prospects of female candidates.

Voter heterogeneity and political corruption

We show that policies that eliminate corruption can depart from socially desirable policies and this inefficiency can be large enough to allow corruption to live on. Political competition between an honest (welfare maximiser) and corrupt politicians is studied. In our model the corrupt politician is at a distinct disadvantage: there is no asymmetric information, no voter bias and voters are fully rational. Yet, corruption cannot be eliminated when voters have heterogeneous preferences.

Quantifying Voter Biases in Online Platforms

In content-based online platforms, use of aggregate user feedback (say, the sum of votes) is commonplace as the "gold standard" for measuring content quality. Use of vote aggregates, however, is at odds with the existing empirical literature, which suggests that voters are susceptible to different biases-reputation (e.g., of the poster), social influence (e.g., votes thus far), and position (e.g., answer position). Our goal is to quantify, in an observational setting, the degree of these biases in online platforms. Specifically, what are the causal effects of different impression signals-such as the reputation of the contributing user, aggregate vote thus far, and position of content-on a participant's vote on content? We adopt an instrumental variable (IV) framework to answer this question. We identify a set of candidate instruments, carefully analyze their validity, and then use the valid instruments to reveal the effects of the impression signals on votes. Our empirical study using log data from Stack Exchange websites shows that the bias estimates from our IV approach differ from the bias estimates from the ordinary least squares (OLS) method. In particular, OLS underestimates reputation bias (1.6-2.2x for gold badges) and position bias (up to 1.9x for the initial position) and overestimates social influence bias (1.8-2.3x for initial votes). The implications of our work include: redesigning user interface to avoid voter biases; making changes to platforms' policy to mitigate voter biases; detecting other forms of biases in online platforms.

Party-Determined Viability and Gender Bias in Open-List Proportional Representation Systems

AbstractUsing individual-level data from three Lithuanian legislative elections (2008, 2012, 2016), this article investigates voter bias in an open-list proportional representation system in which parties rank candidates but voters are able to fully influence the rank order through preferential voting. This study examines the average effects of and variation in gender bias among voters of different parties. Most importantly, it also investigates how party cues interact with gender cues—that is, whether discriminatory tendencies vary by a candidate's party-determined viability. After establishing that there is no evidence of elite bias in favor of or against women candidates, with the exception of the Social Democrats and a few other parties, I demonstrate that, on average, female Lithuanian politicians receive approximately 7% fewer preferential votes than their male counterparts. In addition, the models predict that gender bias is most pronounced against the female candidates who are best placed to enter parliament. Finally, I demonstrate that Social Democratic voters are, on average, the most undisposed toward female candidates, correcting for positive elite bias toward female candidates from the Lithuanian Social Democratic Party, while voters of the Homeland Union party (conservatives) strongly prefer women politicians.

The blame game: analyzing gender bias in Danish local elections

ABSTRACT Diagnosing women’s under-representation in electoral politics often involves a “blame game,” seeking to identify the primary factor responsible for depressing the share of women among candidates as well as elected officials. The Danish electoral system – in which parties present ordered lists of candidates but voters have the option to cast preference votes that can rearrange the list order – provides an opportunity to assess the relative role of elite versus voter bias in shaping women’s electoral fortunes. Using data from local elections in 2009, we find greater evidence for elite bias against women. We also observe, however, that voters do not widely exploit their preference votes. In an original post-election survey, we discover that “candidate gender” is less important for male and female voters than a host of other characteristics when deciding for which candidate to cast a preference vote.

Confronting the 'Electability Trap': Effects of Campaign Messages, Information, and Perceived Competence on Voter Evaluations of Underrepresented Candidates

While voters may form negative impressions of candidates that do not immediately fit traditional expectations, equal electoral success rates demonstrate that voters are not biased against women and racial minority candidates. I argue that candidates address voter perceptions through their campaign strategy and messages. Thus, a key dimension of campaign strategy is the extent to which perceptions of candidate gender and racial identity may encourage, or even necessitate, the use of differing campaign message strategies. This paper seeks to determine whether candidate profile characteristics might account for the seeming discrepancy between voter bias and electoral outcomes. I use large-scale observational and experimental messages to show how candidate identity, communication---particularly image-managing messages that express individualistic work-ethic and perseverance---and signals of competency affect voter perceptions. In a preliminary forced-choice paired-conjoint and a menu-based choice experiment (n=500), I find that constituents make judgments regarding vote choice, candidate issue competencies, and character using identity. Nevertheless, respondents positively respond to other dimensions of candidate profiles, specifically messages of work-ethic and previous political experience. In particular, Image-Management is consistently shown to be associated with a significant positive increase in these evaluations. In the menu-based survey experiment, I find that when respondents craft the candidates they would consider ideal and worthy of their vote, women and racial minorities are often recommended to pursue messages of Image-Management and higher educational attainment. Taken together, these findings suggest that candidate messaging may provide an account for why women and racial minority candidates are able to obtain electoral success despite evidence of voter biases. This work provides cutting-edge analysis of strategic campaign messaging and puts to the test its effectiveness in attenuating voter biases.

Voter Bias and Women in Politics

We quantify the implications of voter bias and electoral competition for politicians' gender composition. Unfavorable voters' attitudes towards women and local gender earnings gap correlate negatively with the share of female candidates in Parliamentary elections. Using within-candidate variation across the different polling stations of an electoral district in a given election year, we find that female candidates obtain fewer votes in municipalities with higher gender earnings gaps. We show theoretically that when voters are biased against women, parties facing gender quotas select male candidates in the most contestable districts. We find empirical support for such a strategic party response to voter gender bias. Simulating our calibrated model confirms that competition significantly hinders the effectiveness of gender quotas.

Women’s Representation in Politics: Voter Bias, Party Bias, and Electoral Systems

We study how electoral systems affect the presence of women in politics using a model in which both voters and parties might have a gender bias. We apply the model to Spanish municipal elections, in which national law mandates that municipalities follow one of two different electoral systems: a closed-list system in which voters pick one party-list, or an open-list system, in which voters pick individual candidates. Using a regression discontinuity design, we find that the closed-list system increases the share of women among candidates and councilors by 2.5 percentage points, and the share of women among mayors by 4.3 percentage points. Our model explains these results as mostly driven by voter bias against women. We provide evidence that supports the mechanism of the model. In particular, we show that, when two councilors almost tied in general-election votes, the one with “one more vote” is substantially more likely to be appointed mayor, but this does not happen when the most voted was female and the second was male, suggesting the presence of some voter bias. We also show that, in a subsample of municipalities with low bias — proxied by having had a female mayor in the past — the difference between the two electoral systems disappears.

Voter Psychology and the Carbon Tax

Economists across the political spectrum argue that a carbon tax is the most effective and economically efficient policy for addressing climate change. Voters, however, strongly oppose the carbon tax and instead favor “green” subsidies and command-and-control regulations. If carefully designed, these policies might complement a carbon tax, but by themselves, they will make global warming mitigation incredibly expensive and perhaps even infeasible. Moreover, if poorly designed, subsidies and regulations can be counterproductive. This Article argues that the public dislikes the carbon tax because the tax possesses attributes that make it psychologically unappealing relative to other climate policy instruments. The Article also argues that even if carbon tax proponents eventually persuade voters to accept a carbon tax, voters are biased in favor of particular design features that would make the tax less efficient. The Article discusses ways to overcome the problems that voter psychology creates. These include a communications strategy designed to combat voter bias and the controversial proposition that bureaucrats, who are somewhat insulated from public pressure, might adopt a carbon tax administratively. The Article also contributes to the burgeoning literature on how voter psychology affects the law and public policy.

Do Voters Dislike Working-Class Candidates? Voter Biases and the Descriptive Underrepresentation of the Working Class

In most democracies, lawmakers tend to be vastly better off than the citizens who elect them. Is that because voters prefer more affluent politicians over leaders from working-class backgrounds? In this article, we report the results of candidate choice experiments embedded in surveys in Britain, the United States, and Argentina. Using conjoint designs, we asked voters in these different contexts to choose between two hypothetical candidates, randomly varying several of the candidates’ personal characteristics, including whether they had worked in blue-collar or white-collar jobs. Contrary to the idea that voters prefer affluent politicians, the voters in our experiments viewed hypothetical candidates from the working class as equally qualified, more relatable, and just as likely to get their votes. Voters do not seem to be behind the shortage of working-class politicians. To the contrary, British, American, and Argentine voters seem perfectly willing to cast their ballots for working-class candidates.

Ventaja de género en los distritos uninominales: las elecciones en México de 2012

Los datos de las elecciones de México en 2012 demuestran que, en competición en distritos uninominales, los hombres obtienen ventaja electoral sobre las mujeres. Esto no obedece ni a la distinta experiencia ni al sesgo en los partidos en la selección de candidatas, por lo que este trabajo concluye que se trata de un sesgo de los votantes. También se constata la existencia de sesgo de género dentro de cada partido en el emplazamiento de candidatas en distritos más o menos prometedores y se descarta que pueda ser un cálculo racional para evitar los efectos del sesgo de los votantes. La ventaja de género se debilita mucho cuando las candidatas tienen experiencia legislativa, lo que ofrece una razón para utilizar cuotas de género.

Are women pawns in the political game? Evidence from elections to the Spanish Senate

This paper investigates the reasons behind the low representation of women among legislators. Using data from Spain, we find that parties tend to nominate female candidates to poorer positions on the ballot. We examine whether this is due to voter bias or party bias, and find two pieces of evidence supporting the latter: female candidates attract more votes, and political competition improves the quality of positions to which female candidates are assigned. Moreover, gender quotas fail to erode the strategic nomination of female candidates. The evidence in this paper helps explain why quotas in candidate lists might often lead to disappointing increases in the number of elected female politicians.

Why Are Gender Quotas Adopted? Party Pragmatism and Parity in France

The passage of electoral gender quotas raises questions about why male elites would support policies that seemingly go against their self-interests. Recent work on France suggests that quota adoption is self-interested because male legislators benefit from alleged voter bias against female candidates. This article evaluates this explanation as a means for understanding quota adoption globally. It argues that the key actors are not legislators but political parties. Developing an alternative causal story centered on “party pragmatism,” it finds that decisions to introduce quotas are rational and consistent once a range of incentives—ideological, electoral, and strategic—are taken into account.

Running Backwards and in High Heels

The question of whether voter bias exists toward female politicians remains unsettled. Although anecdotal accounts of gender inequality abound, systematic research demonstrates that women “do as well as men” when they run. Previous work suggests that these conflicting observations result from an omitted variables problem. Specifically, if women are higher quality than men, and if quality is omitted from models of vote-share, then voter bias may be concealed. Using a unique measure of incumbents’ political quality, the author’s research documents a sex-based quality gap and importantly, is the first to link the quality gap to the gender parity in electoral success.

Explaining the number of preferential votes for women in an open-list PR system: An investigation of the 2003 federal elections in Flanders (Belgium)

The electoral system is an important factor influencing female representation in Parliament. There is a consensus that a proportional representation (PR) system is more beneficial for women than a majoritarian system. Since there is a lot of variety in PR systems and since recent literature suggests that how actors cope with institutional provisions should be looked at more closely, we have investigated why women receive fewer votes in an open-list PR system. More in particular, it was our aim to find out whether women receive fewer votes because of voter bias or systemic bias. We have analyzed three variables influenced by systemic actors (parties, society and media) that have a substantial effect on the number of votes: media attention, campaign expenditures and list position. Our analysis of the 2003 federal Belgian elections shows that women are disadvantaged on these three variables and that as a consequence they obtain fewer votes. There is no voter bias, but a systemic bias. These disadvantages can be due either to individual characteristics influenced by education and society (less ambition, less convinced of capabilities, and so on) or, more importantly, to party- or media-related factors (a.o. list composition, designation of campaign budgets and spokespersons).

Voter Bias in the Associated Press College Football Poll

The authors investigate multiple biases in the individual weekly ballots submitted by the 65 voters in the Associated Press college football poll in 2007. Using censored Tobit modeling, they find evidence of bias toward teams (a) from the voter’s state, (b) in conferences represented in the voter’s state, (c) in selected Bowl Championship Series conferences, and (d) that played in televised games, particularly on relatively prominent networks. They also find evidence of inordinate bias toward simplistic performance measures—number of losses, and losing in the preceding week—even after controlling for performance using mean team strength derived from 16 so-called computer rankings.

Are Women Pawns in the Political Game? Evidence from Elections to the Spanish Senate

This paper investigates the reasons behind the low representation of women among legislators. Using data from Spain, we find that parties tend to nominate female candidates to poorer positions on the ballot. We examine whether this is due to voter bias or party bias, and find two pieces of evidence supporting the latter: female candidates attract more votes, and political competition improves the quality of positions to which female candidates are assigned. Moreover, gender quotas fail to erode the strategic nomination of female candidates. The evidence in this paper helps explain why quotas in candidate lists might often lead to disappointing increases in the number of elected female politicians.