Vote Share Research Articles

Ideology, Local-Level Policymaking, and International Governmental Organizations

Abstract A growing literature at the intersection of international relations, public policy, and comparative politics has explored the role that International Governmental Organizations (IGOs) play in influencing domestic policymaking. This literature is grounded in a commonly shared theoretical expectation that policymakers will perceive IGOs as neutral and technocratic purveyors of expert information. Based on this expectation, scholars have assumed that policymakers are likely to employ recommendations from IGOs when making decisions. In this research note, we examine this assumption through an analysis of original survey data on U.S. mayors’ responses to COVID-19-related guidance from the World Health Organization (WHO). In contrast to dominant theoretical expectations, we find that mayoral likelihood of considering WHO recommendations in policymaking and of trusting WHO-provided information was largely a function of ideology, an effect that remains after incorporating the interactive effect of Trump vote share.

Economic voting behavior: The peak‐end growth rule

AbstractThis paper introduces the peak‐end rule to economic voting, finding that voters focus on peak and end economic growth when evaluating incumbents. Cross‐national data from 595 elections in 70 countries (1960–2020) shows that the average of the highest GDP growth rate during the term and the growth rate in the election year positively impacts incumbent vote share, with peak growth having a stronger effect. Instrumental variable analysis addresses endogeneity. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that less‐educated voters rely more on the peak‐end rule. The findings contribute to understanding voters' behavioral patterns and improving democratic accountability.

Partisanship and the Pandemic: How and Why Americans Followed Party Cues on COVID-19

The United States underperformed its potential in responding to the COVID-19 pandemic. The authors use original survey data from April 2020 to March 2022 to show that political partisanship may have contributed to this inconsistent response by distinguishing elites and citizens who took the crisis seriously from those who did not. This division was not inevitable; when the crisis began, Democrats and Republicans differed little in their viewpoints and actions relative to COVID-19. However, partisans increasingly diverged when their preferred political leaders provided them with opposing cues. The authors outline developments in party politics over the last half century that contributed to partisan division on COVID-19, most centrally an anti-expertise bias among Republicans. Accordingly, Republicans’ support for mitigation measures, perception of severity of COVID-19, and support for vaccines gradually decreased after the initial outbreak. Partisan differences also showed up at the state level; Trump's vote share in 2016 was negatively associated with mask use and positively associated with COVID-19 infections. Diverging elite cues provided fertile ground for the partisan pandemic, underscoring the importance of political accountability even in an era of polarization.

Climate policy at the International Monetary Fund: No voice for the vulnerable?

AbstractThe climate crisis prompted the International Monetary Fund (IMF), an international lender of last resort, to implement wholesale reforms to incorporate climate policy into its operations. At the IMF, selected countries from the Global North—historically the largest emitters of greenhouse gases—dominate decision‐making. This raises several questions. Can the Fund implement an ambitious and effective climate policy? How are climate‐vulnerable developing countries and their interests represented in everyday decision‐making at the institution? Drawing on scholarship on the political economy and legitimacy of international organizations, we focus on the formal distribution of decision‐making power within the IMF to evaluate the IMF's shift toward climate change. Our empirical analysis of the representation of 57 self‐identifying climate‐vulnerable developing countries (the V20) at the IMF and within its Executive Board shows that these countries, speaking for almost a third of the Fund's membership, command a vote share of merely 5.6%. Our assessment of the Climate Strategy adopted by the IMF amplifies equity concerns over its climate policies and further attests to the disregard of requests by developing countries. Barring meaningful governance reform to increase the voice and representation of climate‐vulnerable developing countries, the IMF's approach to addressing climate change is unlikely to translate into legitimate and effective climate policy.

Estimating Disenfranchisement in US Elections, 1870–1970

While it is commonly understood that the poll tax and literacy tests, among other measures, were used effectively in the South to disenfranchise Black voters from the late nineteenth through the mid-twentieth century, what is not well known is how much those disenfranchising laws mattered. Specifically, how much did the enactment of poll taxes or literacy tests affect turnout in federal and state elections? And how much did those disenfranchising provisions dampen vote totals for Republican candidates in the South? Using the staggered implementation and removal of several disenfranchising policies over a 101-year period, we answer these questions and provide some precision to our collective knowledge of the “disenfranchising era” in American electoral politics. Overall, we find that the poll tax was the main driver of disenfranchisement in Southern elections, with literacy tests and the Australian ballot providing some secondary effects. We also find that ex-felon disenfranchisement laws were considerably more important—both in reducing turnout as well as Republican vote share in Southern elections—than has been traditionally understood. Finally, we unpack the “South” and unsurprisingly find that racial politics drove these results: the disenfranchising institutions were more impactful in states with a larger Black population share. Our results show the powerful effects of disenfranchising policies on electorates and electoral outcomes. We discuss these results in both their historical context as well as with a mind to the continuing use of disenfranchising provisions in law today.

Social Networks and Brexit: Evidence from a Trade Shock

Regional exposure to Chinese import competition has often been linked to support for the Leave option in the 2016 UK EU membership referendum. Looking at 143 harmonised International Territorial Level 3 (ITL3) regions covering England and Wales, and using data on the density of online social ties between them, I show that regional support for leaving the EU was also associated with exposure in socially connected regions. I first delineate 18 commuting zones based on interregional flows over three Census years. For each region, I then construct a measure of own exposure to Chinese import competition and a measure of exposure in a set of social neighbours located outside its commuting zone. Exploiting variation within commuting zones, and using an instrumental variable approach, I find that the two measures have comparable positive effects on the regional share of the Leave vote. In a series of checks, I do not find evidence that the effect of social neighbours’ exposure is driven by an economic channel or a relationship between import competition and social ties. I also corroborate the regional results using survey data on vote choice. I interpret these findings as indicative of social spillovers between local labour markets: information flows from social neighbours are a likely channel behind the estimated spillover effects on voting outcomes.

Issue Ownership and Framing

This article explores how Scottish political parties frame their owned issues on social media to persuade voters during the run-up to elections. Through a qualitative analysis of 150 Twitter and Facebook posts from five major Scottish parties, the study reveals that parties employ threat and victim framing to bolster their vote share. Opposition parties predominantly portray the Scottish National Party (SNP) as a threat, while all parties frame the electorate as victims. The extent and focus of these frames vary based on parties' parliamentary strength and government/opposition status. The SNP, holding a strong governing position, focuses on advancing its independence agenda, while other parties critique the SNP and then promote their own priorities. This article contributes to framing theory by highlighting the nuanced relationship between issue ownership, threat, and victim frames in shaping electoral outcomes. The findings underscore the strategic use of social media by parties to influence voter perceptions and decisions.

Institutional knowledge and perceived rural representation

Place-based identities could potentially shape how the public evaluates political information, especially when cleavages between rural and non-rural become more central to politics. Rural voters may particularly respond distinctly to knowledge about the United States political system, which through several political institutions, notably the federal Senate, gives rural areas a share of votes exceeding their share of the population. Observational survey responses from the 2020 American National Election Study show that although most respondents feel that government institutions give less political influence to rural areas, knowledge about American politics reduces that feeling. The relationship between this knowledge and beliefs about rural political influence, however, occurs only in those with suburban and, especially, urban identities; rural and small-town identifiers seemingly shrug off their knowledge in assessing rural political influence.

2024 Indonesian Presidential Election: How Prabowo Won

In 2024, major democracies, including India, the United States, and Indonesia, held national elections. Indonesia was first to hold its presidential election on February 14, 2024, where approximately 205 million voters participated. This election is significant for several reasons: its implications for other large democracies, its potential impact on the regional order in Southeast Asia amidst US-China tensions, and its effect on Indonesia’s democracy. Three candidates contested the election: Anies Baswedan, former Governor of Jakarta; Ganjar Pranowo, former Governor of Central Java; and Prabowo Subianto, the Minister of Defense. Although Ganjar led the polls until April 2023, Prabowo’s support surged after November 2023, leading to a close race. Contrary to expectations of a runoff, Prabowo won decisively, with 58% of the vote share in the first round. This article explores why Prabowo’s third presidential bid was successful and examines the election’s impact on Indonesian democracy.

From aid to resilience: Assessing the impact of climate finance on energy vulnerability in developing countries

Climate change is a major threat, and tackling it requires massive investment in sustainable practices and technologies. This paper explores the impact of the Global Climate Finance Fund (CF), including the Adaptation Finance Fund (AF) and Mitigation Finance Fund (MF), on energy vulnerability from 2000 to 2019 in a panel of 74 developing countries. Estimation using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method showed that the CF significantly reduces energy vulnerability in developing countries. Furthermore, these results show that the MF has a greater reduction effect on energy vulnerability than the AF. To deal with the omitted variables bias and reverse causality, we applied the Oster (2019) stability test, and the Instrumental Variable Generalized Method of Moments (IV-GMM). The results confirm previous findings that climate finance reduces energy vulnerability, with mitigation finance having a larger effect. These results remained robust to the introduction of additional controls, to the exclusion of outliers, and to the use of alternative climate finance measures. Instrumenting climate finance by the share of important votes at the UN General Assembly and using three different instrumental estimation techniques, such as the Instrumental Variable Two-Stage Least Squares (IV-2SLS), Lewbel (2012), and Kiviet (2020), does not change our results. Finally, an asymmetry analysis through the application of the Canay (2011) quantile regression demonstrated that climate finance reduces energy vulnerability only for countries with a medium and high level of energy vulnerability. Based on these results, policy recommendations have been formulated.

The electoral effect of pork barrel politics: evidence from England

AbstractThis study examines the effect of the allocation of centralised funding on electoral support for the incumbent by utilising the introduction of the “Towns Fund” in England in 2019 as a natural experiment. For causal identification, I leverage a difference-in-difference design to examine the electoral effect of this fund. My findings suggest that providing funding to constituencies significantly increased the vote share of the Conservative Party in the General Election in 2019. However, in a subset of constituencies in which the Labour Party constitutes the incumbent, the findings can not be replicated for all specifications and robustness checks. Furthermore, I do not find consistent support that the effect is stronger in economically deprived constituencies. Similarly, the results suggest that the voting outcome depends on the total amount of funding being received, however, this finding does not reach statistical significance. These results complement the literature by providing empirical evidence for pork barrel as a functioning means for vote buying for the Conservative government in 2019 in England. Furthermore, this paper emphasises that partisanship should be considered as a mediating variable when analysing the political effect of providing place-based funding.

In the Name of Mazu: The Use of Religion by China to Intervene in Taiwanese Elections

Abstract Foreign policy objectives can be achieved through religious institutions as a form of soft power. However, empirical evidence on this form of soft power is limited. In this study, we provide rigorous empirical evidence of electoral influence through the channel of religious institutions. To test the efficacy of this channel of influence, we study the Chinese government’s attempts to influence Taiwanese elections through religious institutions. By leveraging spatial regression methods, we demonstrate that Mazu temples influence electoral behavior through a localized process. The density of urban Mazu temples in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, which are subject to influence from China, is associated with an increase in vote share for the pro-China party in their neighborhoods. However, the influence on voters in urban and village areas is not homogeneous. In contrast to urban temples, the relationship between village Mazu temples and the electoral results is insignificant.

The political fallout of air pollution

This paper studies the effect of air pollution on voting outcomes. We use data from 60 federal and state elections in Germany from 2000 to 2018 and exploit plausibly exogenous fluctuations in ambient air pollution within counties across election dates. Higher air pollution on election day shifts votes away from incumbent parties and toward opposition parties. An increase in the concentration of particulate matter (PM10) by 10 [Formula: see text]g/m[Formula: see text]-around two within-county SDs-reduces the vote share of incumbent parties by two percentage points, which is equivalent to 4% of the mean vote share. We generalize these findings by documenting similar effects with data from a weekly opinion poll and a large-scale panel survey. We provide further evidence that poor air quality leads to more negative emotions such as anger, worry, and unhappiness, which, in turn, may reduce the support for the political status quo. Overall, these results suggest that poor air quality affects decision-making in the population at large, including consequential political decisions.

Intergovernmental alignment and the electoral value of mayors: reverse coattails in an unexpected technocracy

Although parties are documented to invest significant amounts of resources towards strengthening their hold on local governments, whether mayors benefit their parties in national elections remains an open question. More specifically, it is unclear if mayors are electorally valuable in periods when party-affiliated central governments do not support them via politically discriminatory policies. We address this gap by studying “reverse coattails” in a unique setting: under a technocratic central government instituted following an unexpected, exogenous tragic event that forced the previous government’s resignation. Investigating close mayoral races in Romania in a regression discontinuity analysis, we find that local incumbency generated meaningful vote share premiums in the 2016 parliamentary elections. Exploring the underlying mechanism, we retrieve evidence for prospective voting, suggesting that the reverse coattails we document are partially driven by voters’ expectations of future preferential resource allocations by the central government. We show that preferential central policies were implemented after, but not before the national elections, and find that reverse coattails were stronger in constituencies where funds received from the center are an important component of local revenues.

O impacto da participação em primárias presidenciais simultâneas opcionais na porcentagem de votos para o candidato da coalizão na eleição geral: evidências do sistema de dois turnos do Chile

Objective/context: We assess the effect of turnout in multiparty-coalition presidential primaries on the electoral support for the primary winner in two-round presidential elections. Does holding presidential primaries have a positive impact on the vote share received by the primary winner and/or political party in the corresponding presidential election? Methodology: We use municipal-level data in the three election cycles (2013-2021) since adopting optional presidential primaries in Chile to estimate ordinary least squares (OLS) models and assess the effect of turnout in the primaries on vote share in the general election. Conclusions: We identify a positive association between turnout in the primaries and vote share for the coalition candidate in the presidential election, with a higher impact on the runoff than in the first round. Originality: As primaries mobilize more ideological voters, the effect of primary turnout is stronger in the runoff when voters are more likely to align along clearly defined ideological lines than in the first round when primary voters normally have more than one option that matches their ideological preferences.

From apprentice to president? Entertainment TV and US elections

This article studies the importance of entertainment TV for the selection of political leaders in the context of an important case study: Donald Trump's win in the 2016 presidential election and his previous role as host of the popular TV show “The Apprentice.” We find a positive correlation between TV ratings of The Apprentice and the county-level Republican vote share in 2016, but this correlation vanishes once we control for pre-existing voting and NBC viewership patterns. This null result is robust to different model specifications, measures of exposure to The Apprentice, and an extensive investigation of heterogeneous effects. Viewership of The Apprentice is also unrelated to Congressional election results, as well as support for Trump in survey data and the Republican primaries. These findings highlight the context-dependent importance of television for political leadership.

Patterns of politicization following triggering events: the indirect effect of issue-owning challengers

Changes in party systems do not always occur gradually. While structural changes in societies lead to new tensions and potential conflicts, these conflicts often become politicized in the wake of ‘triggering events’. However, such events do not always lead to the politicization of an issue. This study addresses the question why potentially triggering events sometimes produce extensive political attention and conflict around an associated issue, whereas in other circumstances very similar events do not generate much political attention or contestation. Some scholars highlight the strategic incentives of party political elites (the top-down perspective) whereas others focus on the key role of political challengers in politicizing issues (‘the bottom-up perspective)’. We focus on three events that potentially trigger the politicization of immigration (9–11, Banlieus riots and the Cartoon crisis) and identify anti-immigration parties as challengers of government parties. Based on political claims analysis of newspapers in seven European countries, we find that government parties exert strong control over the political agenda, both in terms of salience as in positional terms. However, when anti-immigration parties are large and in opposition, they do play an important role in politicizing the issue of immigration. Since anti-immigration parties have increased their vote share over the past decade and typically remain in the opposition nevertheless, it is likely that future events will lead to further politicization of the issue of immigration.

Legislators’ accountability for issue stances: evidence from Australia’s Marriage Law Postal Survey

ABSTRACT For legislators to be held accountable for their stances voters need to sanction unpopular positions. However, because of strong party discipline it is difficult to identify the effects of individual MPs’ stances rather than the stance of their party, because MPs almost always have the same stance as their party. Researchers must therefore study issues which cut across parties or where parties allowed representatives to follow their conscience. Same-sex marriage is one such issue. We use data from the 2017 marriage law survey and subsequent 2019 federal election results to test whether MPs whose referendum positions were out-of-step with their district faced electoral sanction. We find that a standard deviation increase in congruence at the level of the polling place catchment area yields a statistically and substantively insignificant change in vote share of −0.1 percentage points. The results question the degree to which electors control their representatives beyond voting for a party label.

County-level political group density, partisan polarization, and individual-level mortality among adults in the United States: A lagged multilevel study

ObjectiveTo investigate the associations between county-level political group density, partisan polarization, and individual-level mortality from all causes and from coronary heart disease (CHD) in the United States. MethodsUsing data from five survey waves (1998–2006) of the General Social Survey-National Death Index dataset and the County Presidential Election Return 2000 dataset, we fit weighted Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the associations between (1) political group density and (2) partisan polarization measured at the county level in 2000 (n = 313 counties) categorized into quartiles with individual-level mortality (n = 14,983 participants) from all causes and CHD, controlling for individual- and county-level factors. Maximum follow-up was from one year after the survey up until 2014. We conducted these analyses using two separate measures based on county-level vote share differences and party affiliation ideological extremes. ResultsIn the overall sample, we found no evidence of associations between county-level political group density and individual-level mortality from all causes. There was evidence of a 13% higher risk of dying from heart disease in the highest quartile of county-level polarization (hazards ratio, HR = 1.13; 95% CI = 0.74–1.71). We observed heterogeneity of effects based on individual-level political affiliation. Among those identifying as Democrats, residing in counties with high (vs. low) levels of polarization appeared to be protective against mortality, with an associated 18% lower risk of dying from all causes (HR = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.71–0.94). This association was strongest in areas with the highest concentrations of Democrats. ConclusionsAmong all study participants, political group density and polarization at the county level in 2000 were not linked to individual-level mortality. At the same time, we found that Democratic party affiliation may be protective against the adverse effects of high polarization, particularly in counties with high concentrations of Democrats. Future research should further explore these associations to potentially identify new structural interventions to address political determinants of population health.

When do agents deliver the vote? A vote-popularity function in electoral manipulation

ABSTRACT Existing research primarily delves into the demand side of electoral manipulation, focusing on the conditions prompting political elites to rig the process. Recent studies have shifted focus towards the supply side, employing the principal-agent approach to investigate how agents engage in election tampering based on their principals' likelihood of success. While this perspective has highlighted the role of agents in determining manipulation intensity, gaps remain in understanding how they predict their principals' victory and strategically decide on active or passive manipulation. Our argument centres on agents using the economy as a critical indicator of their principals' electoral prospects. A strong economy boosts incumbents' chances of success and their vote share, prompting agents to be more blatant in engaging in electoral misconduct, leading to heightened manipulation. Analysing 1278 multiparty elections across 94 countries since the 1900s, our findings suggest that incumbent electoral prospects correlate with economic indicators and significantly influence the scale of electoral manipulation.