Votes For Candidates Research Articles

Making the other side mad: How out‐group distaste benefits less competent candidates

AbstractI present a formal model of candidate evaluation in a context where voters within some group or political party learn information about to what extent various in‐group candidates (such as a slate of primary candidates) are disliked by an out‐group or opposing party. Thus, a voter's candidate evaluation is based in part on how they process information about which of their own candidates provoke particularly strong distaste from the out‐group. I show that exposure to information about out‐group distaste can cause voters to make misleading inferences about candidate characteristics, causing them to sometimes systematically prefer lower competence candidates. These effects are stronger for certain kinds of low‐information voters, and for more ideologically motivated voters. The model can thus explain under what conditions voters will support politicians who particularly aggrieve the opposition. This can also create secondary incentives for politicians to signal incompetence.

Can interest groups influence elections? Evidence from unions in Great Britain, 1900–2019

AbstractUnions sponsor electoral candidates around the world, yet little is known about the consequences of these arrangements. I study how union sponsorship affected the electoral prospect of British parliamentary candidates throughout the 20th century. I collect new data on the universe of union‐sponsored candidates. Employing a difference‐in‐differences design based on within‐candidate variation induced by the sponsorship institution and its abolishment, I document that sponsorship caused a six percentage point increase in candidate vote shares. I outline theoretical mechanisms and examine whether sponsees improved their electoral fortune because of changes in constituencies, opponents, resources, mobilization, or information. The evidence supports the constituency and resource mechanisms: Sponsorship helped candidates get nominated in attractive constituencies, accounting for two‐thirds of the effect, and caused an inflow of resources into constituency–party organizations. Overall, sponsorship promoted the representation of union‐friendly candidates in parliament, but it only led to moderate shifts in the balance of power between parties.

Prevailing Party laws and general election outcomes

AbstractObjectiveThis article examines the incidence and effects of the most common ballot ordering procedure used in U.S. general elections, Prevailing Party laws, which give the most advantageous ballot position to the currently prevailing political party.MethodsPanel regression and regression discontinuity analyses are applied to almost 50 years of county‐level election data from Wyoming.ResultsPrevailing Party laws generally increase the favored candidate's vote share by two percentage points or more, enough to flip the result of roughly 1 percent of major elections nationwide.ConclusionsThe effect of Prevailing Party laws is substantially larger than that of more innocuous ballot ordering schemes, due to “endorsement effects” these other schemes lack. The existing literature, which exclusively analyzes these other schemes, substantially understates the degree to which ballot order can be used to maintain political power.

State-Level Forecasts for the 2024 US Presidential Election: Trump Back with a Vengeance?

ABSTRACT The outcome of the 2016 election made it abundantly clear that victory in US presidential contests depends on the Electoral College much more than on direct universal suffrage. This fact points to the importance of using state-level models to arrive at adequate predictions of winners and losers in US presidential elections. In fact, the use of a model disaggregated to the state level and focusing on three types of measures—namely, changes in the unemployment rate, presidential popularity, and indicators of long-term patterns in the regional strength of the Democratic and Republican parties—has in the past enabled us to produce fairly accurate forecasts of the number of Electoral College votes for the presidential candidates of the two major American parties. In this article, we bring various modifications to this model to improve its overall accuracy. With Joe Biden out of the race, this revised model predicts that Donald Trump will succeed in winning back the presidency with 341 electoral votes against 197 for Kamala Harris.

Americans' Downward Mobility Shifts Votes to the Right

ABSTRACT: A decline in a person's economic security relative to that of their relatives, neighbors, and any other group used by people in comparing themselves is correlated with emotional states of loss, anger, anxiety, and decline in subjective well-being. Using publicly available data on voting patterns for 910 selected counties in the United States in four presidential election cycles (2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020), we find that if people in a county experience downward mobility in relative economic security, the county that was once majority Democratic would likely shift to majority Republican voting. This evidence suggests that the fear of loss of relative economic security is associated with voting for authoritarian candidates and agendas.

Who votes for populist presidential candidates? Differential support among US-based Latin American diasporas

What explains diaspora support for populist presidential candidates? Existing findings suggest most diaspora voters are less likely to support populist candidates. However, there are notable exceptions among Latin American diasporas. We posit educated diasporas will be less likely to support populist candidates and political socialization in destination countries with successful populists will increase support for populist candidates in origin-country elections. We use origin-country candidate-level election data from 13 Latin American diasporas residing in the United States to test these claims. Our data covers 172 candidates from 45 first-round presidential elections. We connect this voting data to time-variant demographic data from the American Community Survey (ACS) for US respondents born in our thirteen Latin American countries of interest. Our results complicate existing findings as only some diasporas have less support for populist candidates than domestic voters, while others have relatively more support. We find weak origin-country state capacity, manifested by non-reporting of consulate-level election results, explains this variation. Diasporas from weaker states leave earlier in life and are more politically socialized in the destination country, yet likely vote for populists out of a desire to restore order in their country of birth.

Bankers and Sheriffs? The Economy, Public Security, and Vote Intention for Presidential Incumbents in Central America

ABSTRACT Students of Latin American politics have identified the economy and public security as relevant determinants of voting behaviour. This article extends those insights to Central America. We use a decade of AmericasBarometer data from 2008 to 2018 to study whether voters in six Central American countries prioritise economic or public security issues when casting votes for the incumbent candidate or party. The results reveal that positive economic perceptions – retrospective national outlook in particular – help explain rewarding incumbents. In turn, the perception of insecurity, more than crime victimisation, is related to punishing incumbents. Therefore, the evidence suggests Central Americans behave like bankers and sheriffs when casting votes, although economic views weigh more than public security perceptions. The results indicate strikingly similar accountability patterns across countries.

Building bridges for consensus via alternative voting methods

The study examines the impact of D21, an alternative voting method, on voter polarization using data from President 21 (P21), an online election game, conducted during the 2018 Presidential election in the Czech Republic. Contrary to the actual election outcome, characterized by extreme voter polarization, the P21 outcome under D21 produced cross-ideological consensus among the voters. D21 allows voters to express not only preferences by casting plus votes but also a disapproval by giving a minus vote. Unlike the actual election outcome, P21 data demonstrates voters’ tendencies to cast additional votes for candidates from opposite political spectra, while not using minus votes in retaliatory fashion. These tendencies appeared to be linked to voters’ issue positions and perceptions of the moral leadership qualities of the running candidates rather than their ideological and political affiliations.

Analisis Dampak Sistem Presidential Threshold dalam Pemilihan Presiden dan Wakil Presiden di Indonesia Terhadap Inklusivitas Politik dan Representasi Demokratis

Article 222 of Law Number 17 of 2017 concerning Presidential and Vice Presidential Elections states that "Candidate pairs are proposed by political parties or combinations of political parties participating in the election who meet the requirements to obtain seats of at least 20% of the total number of seats in the DPR or obtain 25% of the valid national votes in election of members of the DPR. With these regulations there are inconsistencies, on the one hand this country adheres to democracy, but on the other hand there are restrictions on the rights of citizens who wish to run for president and/or vice president. Research on the presidential threshold system is important to understand its impact on the political system and democracy in Indonesia. So that we can understand how this system influences community political participation, the diversity of presidential and vice presidential candidates, and the representation of community interests. The method used is normative legal research. These provisions reduce political inclusivity by limiting the variety of options for voters and restricting access for various groups of society. And influence democratic representation by suppressing votes for minority candidates or those representing special interests.

“Realignment”, “Dealignment”, or “Deviation”? Classifying the 2022 Australian Federal Election

The 2022 Australian federal election saw a record high vote for minor parties and independent candidates and record‐low levels of voter identification with the major parties. Scholars have since described the 2022 election as both a “dealigning” and a “realigning” event. Such descriptions are useful commencement points but not definitive. In determining a more accurate classification, this article offers three arguments: first, that younger and female voters swung heavily against the Coalition indeed suggests a “dealigning” election, albeit merely the most recent in a long process of “dealignment”; second, that the election hinged disproportionately on the short‐term factor of Prime Minister Scott Morrison's unpopular leadership suggests the poll was also a “deviating” event; and, third, it is impossible to classify the 2022 election as genuinely “realigning” until subsequent elections confirm the propensity of former Labor and Liberal Party voters to re‐elect Greens and “Teal” candidates.

"White supremacy in North Carolina rests in woman's hands": Dr. Delia Dixon-Carroll and the Power of White Women Voters

Abstract: Following ratification of the Nineteenth Amendment, Dr. Delia Dixon-Carroll (1872–1934) delivered dozens of speeches across North Carolina ahead of the general election in fall 1920, appealing to white women to register and vote for Democratic candidates. A suffragist, clubwoman, and Raleigh's first woman physician, she embodied the new woman of the early twentieth century while also extolling the traditions represented by the Democratic party, notably the white supremacy campaign of 1898 and Charles Aycock's administration. Stumping alongside the state's most powerful Democrats, she assured those who had opposed suffrage that white women would use their newfound political power to preserve the status quo, telling crowds that "when it comes to a question of white supremacy, the women of North Carolina will be there." A stalwart partisan and spokesperson who was recognized by her contemporaries as a party leader, Dixon-Carroll campaigned for Democrats for the rest of her life.

Voting against Women: Political Patriarchy, Islam, and Representation in Indonesia

AbstractWe examine cultural and ideological barriers to gender equality in a young democracy, Indonesia, where women’s political representation has increased slowly since democratization, but where survey results point to declining support for women’s political leadership. In both country and comparative literature, the effect of ideological factors—including religion—on voter support for women candidates is contested. Using results of a nationally representative survey, we group respondents according to a “political patriarchy” index. We find that being a Muslim is a strong predictor of holding patriarchal attitudes; university education is associated with gender-egalitarian views. Patriarchal views, in turn, are associated with opposition to increasing Indonesia’s gender quota and with lower levels of self-reported voting for female candidates. Our findings suggest that patriarchal attitudes drive both policy preferences and voter behavior. We conclude that Indonesia’s recent conservative Islamic turn likely underpins widespread—and increasing—opposition to gender equality in politics.

Without money, you are technically knock-out in the race: Analyzing the role of money in parliamentary primaries in Ghana

Financial resources – comprising money and other material support – are significant determinants in the prosecution of successful electoral campaigns, especially during intra-party candidate selection in Ghana. Delegates in political parties, largely, vote for candidates who can pay their way out; hence, the financially disadvantaged candidates are technically excluded from the race. The article examines this phenomenon which is incrementally making parliamentary primaries in Ghana the preserve of the rich. Empirical evidence from primary data gathered through interviews and focus group discussions as well as secondary data from published works was analyzed from a rational choice theory perspective. The article found that money does not only serve as a measure of a candidate’s success in the two leading political parties in Ghana – the National Democratic Congress (NDC) and New Patriotic Party (NPP) – but also a predictor of their future performance and an exclusionary barrier to the poor. It recommends strong legislation to regulate the funding of parliamentary primaries in Ghana. One of the first essential steps should be limiting the high amount of nomination forms and filing fees charged at the political party level.

Social network, political climate, income inequality, and Americans uptake of monovalent COVID-19 booster

The COVID-19 pandemic has posed an unprecedented impact on Americans for over three years. To control the damage, a booster shot becomes increasingly necessary because the efficacy of the initial vaccine is waning and new variants of the virus are emerging. This study aims to understand factors at both individual and state levels that influence one’s decision to take the monovalent booster. We merged data from a national survey administered in the Spring of 2022 with state-level indicators of the political climate, income inequality, and public health conditions. Multilevel logistic regression is adopted for statistical estimation. Findings show contrasting effects of the social network. More vaccinated people in one’s network promote booster uptake, while more family members and close friends who contracted the virus in one’s network inhibit booster uptake. In addition, residents of states with more votes for the Democratic candidate in the 2020 general election are more likely to take the booster. Meanwhile, residents from states with high income inequality are less likely to become boosted. This study identified multilevel determinants of the individual decision to receive the monovalent COVID-19 booster. The results imply the need to leverage the social network, weaken partisanship salience, and reduce income inequality to encourage booster uptake.

Does Malapportionment Favor the Republican Party?

Abstract This paper examines electoral bias within US politics, including as it relates to malapportionment in the US Senate and Electoral College. Specifically, with the Republican Party gaining significant support in rural areas and the Democratic Party becoming concentrated in urban areas, there is concern that the US electoral system increases the probability that the Republican Party will win a much higher percent of Senate seats than its public support and repeatedly win the presidency without having won a plurality of votes, as was the case in 2000 and 2016. I explore this concern using a relatively new measure called the Directional Proportionality Index (DPIx). Applying it to the Electoral College since 1872 and the US Senate since 1918, this paper demonstrates that while there does exist a small pro-Republican bias in the Electoral College owing to malapportionment, the pro-Republican malapportionment bias in Senate races is far more substantial. However, as long as the percent vote for Democratic and Republican presidential candidates remains close due to partisan polarization, this small bias in the Electoral College is likely enough to lead to more cases whereby the Republican Party loses the popular vote but still wins control over the White House and the United States Congress.

Design and Implementation of Secure Electronic Voting System Using Fingerprint Biometrics

Fingerprint-Based Voting Project is an application that recognizes users based on their fingerprints. Each person has a different finger pattern, so you can easily authenticate voters. This system allows voters to vote using their fingerprints. Fingerprints are used to identify users uniquely. As the fingerprint minutiae features differ for each human being, the fingerprint is utilized to authenticate the voters. Voters can only vote once for a candidate. The system will not allow the voter to vote for a second time. The system allows administrators to add names and candidate photos of candidates nominated for election. The administrator only has the right to add the names and photos of nominated candidates. The admin will verify voters and register voter names. Administrators authenticate users by verifying their identities and then enrolling voters. Users can log in and vote for candidates after receiving a user ID and password from the administrator. The system allows the user to vote for only one candidate for a particular election. The voter and the admin can view the election results using the election ID. Voting results will be updated immediately. This study shows that the proposed web-based voting system is fast, efficient and fraud-free.

Candidate visibility, voter knowledge, and the incumbency advantage in preferential-list PR

Our knowledge about how voters decide which candidate(s) to vote for under preferential-list proportional representation (PLPR) systems remains limited. In particular, it is debated whether incumbent MPs enjoy an electoral advantage over outsiders also under PLPR. We argue that such an incumbency advantage critically depends on candidate visibility (in the media) and differs across voters with varying levels of political knowledge. Our empirical analysis combines candidate information with rich individual-level voting data collected via “mock ballots” in the 2014 Belgian PartiRep election study. We show that the vote premium linked to incumbency increases with increasing media visibility, and while high-visibility incumbents outperform incumbents among the entire electorate, low-visibility incumbents enjoy an advantage only among knowledgeable voters. The results contribute to a better understanding of candidate voting and the incumbency advantage in PLPR. They also have implications for campaign strategies and the regulation of media access.

Does personal door-to-door campaigning influence voters? Evidence from a field experiment

We investigate a quasi-randomized field experiment to determine the effectiveness of door-to-door campaigning by a candidate on outcomes in a general election. The candidate campaigned door-to-door in quasi-randomly-selected voting precincts, which represent the treatment group. Precincts in which the candidate did not campaign door-to-door are the control group. We utilize detailed precinct-level demographic characteristics, vote totals for the candidate in the prior election, and vote totals for a candidate for another office that appeared on the same ballots in both elections. This information allows us to control for various factors using difference-in-difference and first difference regression models to account for differences between treatment and control groups. We find that door-to-door campaigning by the candidate increases the candidate's vote by 3 percentage points and the vote margin by 6 percentage points in a two-candidate race.

Yes we can? Effects of a participatory visioning process on perceived climate efficacy

Lack of perceived efficacy can be an important barrier to climate mitigation action at various scales. Here, we study how a participatory visioning process, the Climate Modernity workshop in Styria, Austria, affected participants' efficacy outcomes. To this end, we conducted two survey waves eliciting self- and response efficacy regarding possible mitigation measures. We estimate difference-in-differences models and corroborate the findings using qualitative participant feedback. The results indicate that the intervention tended to decrease personal self-efficacy, in particular with regard to controversial topics like the transformation of the transport system. This suggests that participatory stakeholder processes can draw attention to the conflict potential and complexity of specific mitigation policies, decreasing the perceived feasibility of implementing them. The workshop, however, tended to increase particpants' personal response efficacy, particularly regarding voting for pro-environmental candidates. Accordingly, participatory processes could raise trust in the democratic process and in the effectiveness of making a green voting decision.

Competence in the Eye of the Electorate: Appearance, Incumbency, and Vote Shares

AbstractPrior studies have documented incumbency advantage for electoral candidates. A largely unrelated strand of literature has shown that perceived competence of candidates, as inferred from their physical appearance, also predicts their electoral success. We draw upon the framework of statistical discrimination and the dual‐system theory of human cognition to understand the relationship between a political candidate's vote share, physical appearance, and incumbency status. Voters possess relatively richer information about incumbents compared to challengers. Perceived competence of candidates, as inferred from their physical appearance, is therefore expected to have a relatively weaker influence on voters' decisions to vote for incumbents. Data from Australian state elections support this prediction.