“Realignment”, “Dealignment”, or “Deviation”? Classifying the 2022 Australian Federal Election

Abstract

The 2022 Australian federal election saw a record high vote for minor parties and independent candidates and record‐low levels of voter identification with the major parties. Scholars have since described the 2022 election as both a “dealigning” and a “realigning” event. Such descriptions are useful commencement points but not definitive. In determining a more accurate classification, this article offers three arguments: first, that younger and female voters swung heavily against the Coalition indeed suggests a “dealigning” election, albeit merely the most recent in a long process of “dealignment”; second, that the election hinged disproportionately on the short‐term factor of Prime Minister Scott Morrison's unpopular leadership suggests the poll was also a “deviating” event; and, third, it is impossible to classify the 2022 election as genuinely “realigning” until subsequent elections confirm the propensity of former Labor and Liberal Party voters to re‐elect Greens and “Teal” candidates.