Volume Of World Trade Research Articles

How Trade Wars Affect Exports of the Belt and Road Countries: New Evidence from Dynamic Panel Data Analysis

Globalization of the world affects the interests of the people continuously in the tendency of being shaped by the integrations geographic factors. By being different from the previous ages, the flow of information allows us today the integration of perception for needs and demands in common sense as a result of global approach, which has been leading to increase in speed of movement of commodities among economies. This increase and practically optimized logistics frameworks drastically reduced the challenge of physical movement of assets among far regions in globe. In our days, a new concept called Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is being discussed and searching for participant economies to enlarge the volume of trade among Far East and Western Europe. Whereas the process of seeking for participants for BRI, the Trade Wars have been continuing among world’s leading economies to sustain domination roles over world trade volume. Considering that the effects of the trade wars between China and the USA on the Belt and Road Initiative have not been examined broadly until today, it is thought that this paper will make important contributions to the literature. As a result of Arellano-Bond (1991) and Arellano-Bover(1995) GMM estimators, it is determined that tariff rates of China is statistically significant and negative on the export of BRI countries whereas tariff rates of the USA does not have a statistically significant effect on these countries. In Addition, Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality analyzes demonstrate that there are unidirectional causality relationships from tariff rates of China and USA to exports of the BRI countries. The empirical findings indicate that trade wars have a significant impact on exports of the BRI countries.

Вновь о распространении инвазивных видов комаров в Европе и России

Literature on distribution of invasive mosquito species that are vectors of especially dangerous infections (dengue, Chikungunya, Zika, yellow fever, and Japanese encephalitis) in the Europe and Russia was briefly reviewed. Global warming of the climate as well as an increase in the volume of world trade and the biological characteristics of mosquitoes contribute to the widespread of these species on territories of many countries and continents

World economy development forecast during the COVID-19 pandemic

More than a decade after the global financial crisis, the world is fighting against the health and economic implications of a new deep crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Advanced economies entered this crisis with historically low interest rates and public debt whose amount was higher than in the 1960 years. They will recover with a higher amount of public debts. Based on pre-pandemic analysis, this article explores options for policymakers to respond to adverse economic shocks. In 2020-2021, according to the International Monetary Fund, the losses of the world economy will be $ 9 trillion. The gross domestic product (GDP) of Russia will decline by 5.5%. In 2021, the GDP of all countries will grow. In general, the developing economies and expanding markets will lose 1% of GDP in 2020, and in 2021, it will be 6.6%. In 2020, the world trade volume will decline by 11%. The depth and duration of the economic downturn will depend on many factors, including the virus behavior, the public health response, and economic interventions.

Lojistik Sektöründe Stratejik Yatırım Kararlarının Pay Getirisine Etkisi: Borsa İstanbul da Bir Uygulama

Increasing world trade volume and technological innovations enhance the global competition and also affect the logistics sector, which is a substantial component of trade. The increasingly competitive environment leads businesses operating in the logistics sector to make a number of strategic investment decisions such as purchases of property, plant and equipment, and financial investments, and joint ventures. In this study, the impact of strategic investment decisions taken by logistics businesses on stock returns is analyzed. For this purpose, 46 strategic investment announcements made by businesses listed on the BIST Transportation index (XULAS) between January 2014 and December 2020 were analyzed by using the 'event study' method; consequently, it has been determined that strategic investment decisions have an impact on the stock returns.

Importance of the Improvement in the Agricultural Technology of Sub-Saharan Africa on Local Economic Development and International Trade

This study assesses the impacts of technological innovation in Sub-Saharan African agriculture on local and global economies. Using the Eaton–Kortum model, with θ = 4.0875, the results show that comparative advantage’s positive impact on agricultural trade more than offsets the negative impacts of geography barriers. Sub-Saharan Africa is among the least competitive region with respect to agriculture production. This is due to its low value of the technology parameter, about 0.16 compared to the North American’s one (93.23). We found that increasing the technology of a country in Sub-Saharan Africa would increase world trade volume within the range of 0.02 to 0.19%. It would increase the local agricultural monthly wage and the welfare of farmers in the Sub-Saharan African region. Therefore, to improve technology in the Sub-Saharan African region, policymakers need to attract foreign direct investment by making incentives and increasing labor skills. This study adds to the literature by determining the contribution of the agricultural sector in Sub-Saharan Africa in global economic development through international trade. It also informs policies on the reduction of poverty and food insecurity around the world in order to achieve some of the Sustainable Development Goals.

Naval Power and Effects of Third-Party Trade on Conflict

This study argues that the effect of third-party trade on dyadic conflicts is conditional on the naval power of both the potential conflict initiator and its target state. This conditional effect occurs mainly because naval power allows trade-integrated initiators to reduce their trade dependence on a given trade partner and its allies more easily. At the same time, the target’s naval power increases the costs that conflict inflict on the initiator’s trade. As maritime trade accounts for about 80 percent of world trade volume, naval capability has an important effect on combatant states’ ability to substitute trading partners during a conflict and to mitigate trade-related costs, thereby affecting the relationship between third-party trade and conflict. The findings of our statistical analyses support our theoretical expectation that the pacifying effect of third-party trade diminishes as the initiator’s naval power increases, yet increases as the naval power of the potential target increases.

Structural Changes in Foreign Trade as a Factor of Competitiveness of the Republic of Serbia

Abstract The paper aims to analyse structural changes in foreign trade based on systematic statistical data as a factor of competitiveness of the Republic of Serbia. First, contemporary tendencies in international trade are analysed, where the value and volume of world trade are monitored, as well as key changes in the structure of world exports and imports in the observed period. By assessing the position of the Republic of Serbia in international trade, it is necessary to consider the extent to which the foreign trade of the Republic of Serbia adapts to the structural changes in world trade. Then, the structure of the merchandise exchange of the Republic of Serbia according to the purpose of the product is examined as well as the structure of the merchandise exchange according to sectors and commodity groups. Later in the paper, the achieved development of the industry is questioned, where the focus of the analysis is put on the quality of exports and the international competitiveness of the manufacturing industry, which in the Republic of Serbia produces most of the exchangeable goods. The last part of the paper deals with the analysis of the technological structure and factor intensity of Serbian goods exports. In this way, the research question is answered that there is a need for structural changes in production and foreign trade in the Republic of Serbia in order to improve its competitiveness.

Network effects govern the evolution of maritime trade

Maritime transport accounts for over 80% of the world trade volume and is the backbone of the global economy. Global supply chains create a complex network of trade flows. The structure of this network impacts not only the socioeconomic development of the concerned regions but also their ecosystems. The movements of ships are a considerable source of CO2 emissions and contribute to climate change. In the wake of the announced development of Arctic shipping, the need to understand the behavior of the maritime trade network and to predict future trade flows becomes pressing. We use a unique database of daily movements of the world fleet over the period 1977-2008 and apply machine learning techniques on network data to develop models for predicting the opening of new shipping lines and for forecasting trade volume on links. We find that the evolution of this system is governed by a simple rule from network science, relying on the number of common neighbors between pairs of ports. This finding is consistent over all three decades of temporal data. We further confirm it with a natural experiment, involving traffic redirection from the port of Kobe after the 1995 earthquake. Our forecasting method enables researchers and industry to easily model effects of potential future scenarios at the level of ports, regions, and the world. Our results also indicate that maritime trade flows follow a form of random walk on the underlying network structure of sea connections, highlighting its pivotal role in the development of maritime trade.

A Mathematical Model and Two-Stage Heuristic for the Container Stowage Planning Problem With Stability Parameters

Owing to the significant increase in the volume of world trade, mega-container vessels are being used to meet transportation demands. As the size of the vessels increases, the loading sequence of containers onto the vessels presents an important challenge for planners. In this study, we consider the container stowage planning problem with stability constraints (e.g. shear force, bending moment, trim) and develop a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) formulation which generates load plans by minimizing total cost associated with the over-stows and trimming moments. Our study adopts a holistic perspective which encompasses several real-world features such as different container specifications, a round-robin tour of multiple ports, technical limitations related to stack weight, stress, and ballast tanks. We also propose a two-stage heuristic solution methodology that employs an integer programming (IP) formulation and then a swapping heuristic (SH) algorithm. This approach first acquires a lower bound on the total over-stow cost with the IP model, thereby creating an initial bay plan. Then, it applies the SH algorithm to this initial bay plan to minimize cost resulting from trimming moments. The efficiency of the MILP formulation and heuristic algorithm is investigated through numerical examples. The results have shown that the heuristic has greatly improved the solution times as well as the size of the solvable problems compared to the MILP formulation. In particular, the two-stage heuristic can solve all size problem instances within an average optimality gap of 0-25% in less than 8 minutes, whereas the MILP can only achieve an approximate optimality gap of 55-80% in 2 hours.

Impact of Trade Development in Poverty Reduction in Nepal

Trade is essential for economic development, employment creation and poverty reduction of the country. It is necessary to look forward towards the import and export sector of the country for prosperous economic growth. Nepal has undertaken extensive trade liberalization since 1990. The volume of World Trade in terms of goods and services increased by 2.2 percent in 2016 and reached around 3.8 percent in 2017. The World economy increased by 3.6 percent in 2018 and is expected to grow by 3.3 percent in 2019. The GDP at basic price increased by 6.3 percent in 2018 and it is estimated to increase by 6.8 percent in 2019. Similarly GDP at producer price was 6.7 percent in the 2018 and 7.0 percent in 2019. The contribution of non-agriculture sector to GDP is estimated to be 73 percent in 2018/19. Due to improvement in trade and services, the non-agriculture sector is estimated to expand by 7.5 percent in 2018/19. In Nepal, the first trade policy was introduced in 1983 with the slogan “Exports for Development”. Also a new trade policy was brought in 1992. Due to changes in development and growth, trade policy was again revised in 2009. Various challenges were faced in order to decrease poverty and increase economic growth so the government introduced a new trade policy, 2015. The poverty reduced to 42 percent in 1996 against 31 percent in 2004 and 25.2 percent in 2011. Similarly, per capita income is increased by 1.7 percent and poverty is decreased by 1.4 percent every year. This study therefore focuses on the contribution of each sector to maintain balance in trade. Export oriented growth is the concrete impact on poverty reduction.

An Empirical Study on the Development of China’s Chemical Trade

Based on the trade data from 2008 to 2017, this paper empirically analyzes the development of China’s chemical trade. The scale of China’s chemical trade has expanded year by year, trade has been in a state of deficit, and the concentration of import and export commodity structure is high. The overall performance of chemical trade is trade competition disadvantage and comparative disadvantage. More than half of the classified products are characterized by trade competition disadvantages and comparative disadvantages. Products with export advantages have weak competition. Therefore, China should actively promote enterprises to go global and expand export channels, cultivate emerging products and pay attention to innovation, to improve the competitive advantage of products and promote the sustainable and healthy development of chemical trade. With the continuous adjustment of the world industrial structure, the chemical industry has become the economic growth point of modern industry. Chemical trade is an important part of world trade. In 2017, the world trade volume reached 483.9 billion US dollars. The chemical industry is the foundation and pillar industry of China. It has always occupied an important position in China’s foreign trade. The scale of trade has been increasing year by year. It sorts out the development of China’s chemical trade and proposes countermeasures in a targeted manner, which is conducive to the sustainable and healthy development of China’s chemical trade

Studies on Supply and Demand Paradox in Shipping Market

Purpose – The purpose of the paper is to examine disconnection between supply and demand shipping market, which means shipowner has determined to raise capacity in bust period. Research design, data, and methodology – The research method to be applied is first to look into conceptual theory about shipping market, and then to study imbalance of supply and demand situations in shipping on crisis, and next, to analyses paradoxical aspects traced. Results – Shipping market is a volatile and cyclic characteristics, and its situations have to be examined very carefully. Since financial crisis has broken up in 2008, it is natural to think that world trade volumes has reduced rapidly, which means demand for shipping service has fallen, and accordingly, tonnage should be stagnated as well. However, shipping companies have put capacity into market as unexpectedly. This is because of economy of scale and time lag. Here, this can be explained in terms of paradox that is proved in this paper. Conclusions – From careful research in this paper, it is found that supply and demand are not always got along with market situations, in other words supply side could be working well, in spite of depression time of demand situations in world shipping markets.

A Study on the Development of Logistics and Supply Chain Professionals in Australia

세계적으로 물류의 중요성이 증대되고 있으며, 물류산업의 발전과 더불어 학생과 근로자의 수가 증가하였다. 세계적인 물동량의 증가와 물류수요의 증대로 인해 많은 사람들이 물류에 종사하게 되었고, 물류산업은 지속적으로 성장하고 있다. 본 논문은 호주의 물류에 대한 현재와 미래의 인력확보와 산업발전에 따른 대응 전략을 연구하였다. 호주의 물류산업과 연관된 경제, 노동력 및 무역에 관한 거시적인 배경 에서부터 공급망에 대한 인식과 물류산업의 장래 고용전망을 알아보고 이에 대응하여 공급망관리에서 요구하는 능력과 기술에 대해 연구하 였다. 호주는 2017년 세계에서 13번째로 큰 경제 대국이며 호주의 노동력은 세계에서 가장 교육받고 다문화적이고 다국어를 구사하는 나라 중하나이다. 호주의 근로자는 우수한 교육 시스템, 우수한 과학 연구 기관 및 전문 교육 서비스의 가용성으로 인해 고도로 숙련되어 있다. 이들을 대상으로 물류에 대한 호감도를 조사한 자료에 의하면 학생들이 다른 직업에 비해 섹시하지 않다고 생각하고 있고, 직업상담사들도 트럭과 창고 분야를 그렇게 보기 때문에 공급망 이미지는 문제가 있다고 본다. 그 이유는 낮은 급여와 저평가된 산업 이미지, 노령인구의 증가와 자격증 획득에 필요한 시간과 비용의 문제와 조직에서의 경쟁을 들었다. 그러나 산업의 발전에 따라 물류관련 전문인력의 증가가 예상되는데 앞으로 어떠한 기술과 지식과 능력을 갖춘 인재를 육성해야 하는지에 대해서 연구하였다. 본 논문은 호주의 물류 및 공급망 전문가의 개발에 관한 연구이다.The importance of logistics is increasing worldwide. With the development of the logistics industry, the number of students and workers has increased. Due to the increase in world trade volume and the increase in logistics demand, many people are engaged in logistics, and the logistics industry is growing steadily. This paper deals with the current and future manpower securing the development of Australian logistics industry. From the macroeconomic backgrounds of the economy, labor and trade associated with the Australian logistics industry, we have identified the supply chain perception and future employment prospects for the logistics industry and have studied the capabilities and skills required in supply chain management in response. According to the data on the favorability of logistics, it is seen that students do not think that they are sexy compared to other jobs, and career advisors also see trucks and warehouses. The reasons are low Wages and poor industrial image, increased aging population, time and cost of acquiring qualifications and competition in organizations. However, as the industry develops, it is expected to increase the number of skilled manpower related to logistics. We have studied what kind of skills, knowledge and abilities are needed. This paper deals with the development of Australian logistics and supply chain Professionals.

Energy use in world economy from household-consumption-based perspective

An overview for energy use within the world economy as reflected by the Eora database for 2012 is conducted by means of household-consumption-based multi-regional input-output analysis that is parallel to existing energy accounting frameworks. From a household-consumption-based perspective, the energy use for Mainland China economy is only around half of that for the United States. The world's trade volume of energy use associated with consumer products is quantified, which is over one-fifth of the global total energy consumption. Mainland China is revealed to be with the largest trade deficit of energy use, in magnitude up to the summation of the trade imbalance of all other major economies. Heavy industry products shipped to Europe & Eurasia, Asia Pacific and North America account for nearly 80% of Mainland China's exports of energy use. To safeguard sustainable energy use, the developed economies are suggested to further strengthen their comparative advantages in those high value-added goods or services while developing economies such as Mainland China are supposed to alter the trade patterns by a transition of economic structure.

Issues in Australian Foreign Policy

Issues in Australian Foreign Policy

Does Trade Contribute to Poverty Reduction? If It Does, Where the Benefit Go?

World trade volume has been greatly increasing with the active flow of trade liberalization, and the role of international trade in world economy...

Simulation for assessment of bulk cargo berths number

The world trade volumes of mineral resources have been growing constantly for decades, notwithstanding any economical crises. At the same time, the proximity of the bulk materials as products to the starting point of the integrated value added or logistic supply chain makes their unit price relatively low. This fact automatically causes a strong economic sensitivity of the supply chain to the level of operational expenses in every link. The core of the integrated logistic supply chain is its maritime segment, with the fleet and terminals (i.e. the cargo transportation system) serving as the base platform for it. In its turn, the terminal berths play a role of the interface between the fleet and the land-transportation sub-system. Current development of the maritime transportation technologies, ships and terminal specialization, vessel size growth, rationalization of route patterns, regionalization of trade etc., has made conventional calculation methods inadequate. The solution of the problem is in using object oriented simulation. At the same time, this approch usually assumes only ad hoc models. Thus, it does not provide the generality of its conventional analytical predecessors. The time and labor consumpting procedure of simulation results in a very narrow application domain of the model. This article describes a new simulation instrument, combining the generality of the analytical technoques with the efficiency of the object-oriented simulation. The approach implemented as a software module, which validity and adequacy are proved. The software was tested on several sea terminal design projects and confirmed its efficiency.

The Impact on Australia of Trump's 45 per cent Tariff on Chinese Imports

Should Australia be concerned about the consequences of a possible outbreak of protection between the US and China, two of Australia's largest trading partners? Using the Global Trade Analysis Project model, this paper describes the impact of a 45 per cent tariff imposed by the US on Chinese imports, as flagged by US president‐elect Donald Trump during the election campaign. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is reduced in both the US and China, with no appreciable revival of US manufacturing. Terms‐of‐trade effects cause only minor macroeconomic impacts on Australia. In itself, a US‐China tariff would not cause significant global economic damage but could have important demonstration effects. Worldwide tariff hikes would take many economies into recession and reduce world trade volumes by a third.

Freight derivatives in shipping - A primer

The trade barriers between nations are crumbling due to sustained efforts of WTO. There has been considerable growth in the volume of world trade since its establishment in 1995. Shipping which is considered to be the backbone of international trade has also undergone transformation during these years. The industry which is highly volatile due to its international character exposes its participants to unexpected financial loss. Over the years new financial instruments have been evolved to hedge against such risks. This paper evaluates the use of freight derivatives as a means to hedge volatility in shipping freight rates with particular reference to India.

Penetration Strategies of Turkish Corporations in Kosovo's Market

Rapid developments and increasing competition in recent years have prevented companies from producing and selling only in domestic markets, but also causing their foreign resources and investments to be directed to foreign markets. In this case, once businesses decide to join a particular market, they have to decide which is the best way to penetrate there. Turkish multinational corporations, which have been spreading all over the world with their investments, have conquered world markets with their exports, initiatives and acquisitions, they have entered in foreign markets in various forms and have a significant share in world trade volume with their successful investments. From this point of view, this study examines the strategies by which Turkish multinationals enter foreign markets especially in Kosovo and the impact that those companies have had in the development of the Kosovo economy and the strategies by which Turkish multinationals enter foreign markets.