World economy development forecast during the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

More than a decade after the global financial crisis, the world is fighting against the health and economic implications of a new deep crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Advanced economies entered this crisis with historically low interest rates and public debt whose amount was higher than in the 1960 years. They will recover with a higher amount of public debts. Based on pre-pandemic analysis, this article explores options for policymakers to respond to adverse economic shocks. In 2020-2021, according to the International Monetary Fund, the losses of the world economy will be $ 9 trillion. The gross domestic product (GDP) of Russia will decline by 5.5%. In 2021, the GDP of all countries will grow. In general, the developing economies and expanding markets will lose 1% of GDP in 2020, and in 2021, it will be 6.6%. In 2020, the world trade volume will decline by 11%. The depth and duration of the economic downturn will depend on many factors, including the virus behavior, the public health response, and economic interventions.