Caldera Research Articles

Geomorphic time series reveals the constructive and destructive history of Havre caldera volcano, Kermadec arc

Monitoring active seafloor processes requires repeated, comparable surveys to enable change detection. The change detection of the deep ocean floor, however, is rare due to a paucity of repeat data at an appropriate resolution. In this study, we use an exceptional suite of bathymetric surveys across a spatiotemporal range at the submarine Havre volcano, Kermadec arc, Southwest Pacific, to investigate geomorphic change over 13 years (2002, 2012, and 2015). The integration of bathymetric observations with remotely operated vehicle (ROV) observations and sampling data refined geomorphic boundaries, and four geomorphic groups at varying scales are interpreted: (i) large-scale tectonic and volcanic features, e.g., faults and calderas; (ii) coherent volcanic products, e.g., lavas; (iii) clastic primary volcanic products, e.g., giant pumice deposits; and (iv) mass-wasting features and products, e.g., landslide scarps. Three 25-m resolution geomorphic maps for broad-scale feature change and high-resolution 1-m autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) bathymetry are used to develop a fine-scale geomorphic map that reveals additional landforms and processes. We integrate bathymetric data with sampling data and ROV video footage of the seafloor to refine geomorphic boundaries. We also integrate the results of previous geological studies of Havre to inform the geomorphic interpretation. Our map reveals a variety of geomorphic forms from a range of volcanic and mass-wasting processes that aid in the interpretation of the growth and evolution of submarine volcanoes. One new observation reveals a significantly larger scale of cryptodome emplacement than recognized previously recognized, accounting for an additional volume of 0.0055 km3 to the 2012 eruption products. This emplacement took place along two linear southern caldera ring faults and likely continued after the formation of the giant pumice raft on 18 July 2012. A key result is the extension of the timeline for the emplacement of volcanic products associated with the 2012 eruption, revealing an additional volume growth of 0.001 km3 on the primary dome (dome OP) between 2012 and 2015. This additional emplacement is documented in this study for the first time and extends the known volcanic emplacement timeline from 3 months to a maximum of 3 years. Our work reveals seafloor modification continuing long after an observed volcanic eruption event as lingering lava emplacement and mass wasting remobilize newly erupted and older products that comprise the edifice.

Evolution of eruption rate between two caldera-forming eruptions in the Jemez Mountains volcanic field, New Mexico, USA

Rhyolites that erupted between the Otowi and Tshirege members of the Bandelier Tuff, known as the Valle Toledo Member, were investigated in the Jemez Mountains volcanic field to infer changes in eruptive rate and flux between two caldera-forming eruptions. Our analysis combines high-precision 40Ar/39Ar single-crystal laser-fusion dating of sanidine, matrix glass compositions and mineralogy of pumice, depositional textures, and volumetric estimates of erupted rhyolites to present a revised Valle Toledo Member eruptive chronology that integrates our observations with those of previous studies. With the improved temporal resolution of our high-precision eruption ages (median 2σ uncertainty of ±2.9 ka), the updated Valle Toledo Member eruption chronology consists of at least 42 temporally or mineralogically distinct eruptions that we group into four periods of time based on eruption rate. Within the first 8.1 ± 5.1 kyr (~1605–1597 ka) that followed the Otowi caldera-forming eruption at 1605.4 ± 2.3 ka, six eruptions are recognized. This suggests an average recurrence interval on the order of 1.4 ± 0.9 kyr. Twenty-seven eruptions occurred during the next 194.4 ± 5.1 kyr (from ~1597–1403 ka) and the average recurrence interval increased to 7.2 ± 0.2 kyr. Following this second period of slower eruption rate, a previously unrecognized eruption hiatus of up to 162.4 ± 3.1 kyr occurred from 1402.9 ± 2.3 ka to 1240.5 ± 2.1 ka. Resumption of volcanic activity is characterized by a series of at least nine volcanic eruptions during the next 8.6 ± 2.5 kyr, culminating in the eruption of the 400 km3 Tshirege Member of the Bandelier Tuff and formation of Valles caldera at 1231.9 ± 1.3 ka. This last phase of pre-caldera activity has the shortest observed average recurrence interval (1.0 ± 0.3 kyr) and greatest eruptive flux (≥ 0.4 ± 0.2 km3/kyr) that occurred between the two caldera-forming eruptions. We interpret the shifts in eruption rate and flux following the 162.4 ± 3.1 kyr eruption hiatus, in addition to mineralogical changes present in post-hiatus rhyolites, as indicators that the Bandelier system was trending towards another major eruption. The magmatic system may have grown gradually throughout the ca. 162 kyr period of volcanic repose; however, the heightened eruption rate in the ca. 10 kyr before caldera collapse is consistent with relatively rapid growth of the magmatic system before the Tshirege event as previously proposed by other studies. Furthermore, the new dataset is consistent with prior geochronology studies of the region that show the four largest explosive eruptions in the Jemez field were all proceeded by very slow eruptive rates or hiatuses. This demonstrates that sequences of heightened volcanic activity can initiate on rapid geological timescales from states of volcanic quiescence in the Bandelier system.

Monitoring slow uplift and subsidence in shallow seafloor environments using bottom pressure measurements

Summary Ultra-slow seafloor deformations are frequent in several marine environments like volcanic calderas, offshore oil and gas extraction fields subject to subsidence, and river delta regions; they can exhibit unpredictable behaviors, particularly in caldera systems situated along coastlines. However, offshore monitoring of seafloor uplift and subsidence is still very challenging. Here we present a new method to recover vertical seafloor deformation at Campi Flegrei caldera (CFc), Southern Italy, using Bottom Pressure Recorder (BPR) sensors, tide gauges and a barometer. Using data from two BPRs installed on the seabed within the MEDUSA marine infrastructure of the INGV ‘Osservatorio Vesuviano’, we transform pressure measurements into equivalent water level changes to derive the vertical seafloor displacements. We obtain high accuracy, vertical deformation records from the BPRs measurements by taking into account the high-resolution mean seawater density variation over time, estimated by applying an innovative procedure to the BPRs data and using additional barometric and sea level data. We obtained for the two BPRs an uplift of 22.8 cm over about two years, and 7 cm over about 18 months, respectively. We compare the results with data acquired by GPSs installed on the top of MEDUSA buoys, deployed at the same sites as the BPRs, which recorded the vertical seafloor deformation values of 22 cm and 6.9 cm, respectively, over the same periods. These independent datasets show a strong correlation, with correlation coefficient values of 0.98 and 0.87, and very good agreement in both the trend and amplitude of vertical motion, proving the reliability of BPRs in accurately measuring vertical seafloor deformation. The methodology we developed allows a cost-effective implementation of high accuracy seafloor vertical deformation monitoring networks.

Real-time lava flow forecasting during the 2022 Mauna Loa eruption response

On November 27, 2022, Mauna Loa (Hawai‘i) erupted for the first time in ∼38 years, initially producing lava flows that covered the floor of its summit caldera, Moku‘āweoweo. Over the first 12 h following the summit eruption, four main fissures opened on Mauna Loa’s Northeast Rift Zone, with “fissure 3” quickly becoming the dominant source of lava flows. For the next 12 days, fissure 3 produced a 19-km-long lava flow to the north, crossing the Mauna Loa Weather Observatory access road and coming within 2.8 km of inundating the Daniel K. Inouye Highway (Saddle Road). Within 40 min of fissure 3 opening, inundation modeling efforts had begun. For the duration of the eruption, the computational fluid dynamics model Lava2d was run in real time, using flow front locations and other field observations to make sequential forecast improvements, eventually producing a set of models which accurately predicted the routing and arrival times of lava from fissure 3. These models were used to inform timing estimates of possible future inundation of the Saddle Road. As the eruption progressed, almost 4000 Lava2d models were made using high-performance computing resources, providing critical information on uncertainty in multi-week forecasts. To our knowledge, this was the first ever real-time physics-based ensemble lava flow modeling and forecasting effort. Here, we present a chronology of these real-time efforts, focusing on the successes and limitations of this approach.

Geological evolution and construction of a glacierized active intra-oceanic arc volcano: Visokoi Island (South Sandwich Islands)

Visokoi is a small volcanic island in the remote South Sandwich Islands and is unique in being dominated by the basaltic andesite products of highly explosive eruptions. Here, its geology is described in detail for the first time and can be used to characterize the construction of an active glacierized volcano in an intra-oceanic volcanic arc setting. More than 90% of the volcano is submarine and is composed of (1) a ~ 2.5 km-high mound formed of pillow lava and tuff breccia flanked by a low apron of mass flow deposits, together with (2) an overlying unit ~ 200 m thick composed of Surtseyan volcanic products representing a shoaling (and ultimately emergent) volcanic stage. The succeeding island commenced as a small volcanic shield composed of subaerial ‘a ‘ā lavas whose construction terminated in a caldera collapse that repressurized the magma chamber, presaging a major transition to highly explosive pyroclastic eruptions. They were mainly of sub-Plinian and Plinian type and their recognition on the island provides the first viable explanation for the presence of compositionally similar marine tephras sampled by drilling > 500 km from source, previously considered enigmatic. Eruptions probably took place under ice-poor conditions but evidence for quenching of juvenile clasts suggests that the magmas interacted with water high in the conduit sourced from melting of a small ice cap. The major period of high-discharge sub-Plinian and Plinian eruptions appears to have ended and any future events shall probably comprise small-volume eruptions forming Strombolian scoria cones or glaciovolcanic tuff cones.

Awakening of Maunaloa Linked to Melt Shared from Kīlauea’s Mantle Source

Abstract Maunaloa—the largest active volcano on Earth—erupted in 2022 after its longest known repose period (~38 years) and two decades of volcanic unrest. This eruptive hiatus at Maunaloa encompasses most of the ~35-year-long Puʻuʻōʻō eruption of neighboring Kīlauea, which ended in 2018 with a collapse of the summit caldera and an unusually voluminous (~1 km3) rift eruption. A long-term pattern of such anticorrelated eruptive behavior suggests that a magmatic connection exists between these volcanoes within the asthenospheric mantle source and melting region, the lithospheric mantle, and/or the volcanic edifice. The exact nature of this connection is enigmatic. In the past, the distinct compositions of lavas from Kīlauea and Maunaloa were thought to require completely separate magma pathways from the mantle source of each volcano to the surface. Here, we use a nearly 200-yr record of lava chemistry from both volcanoes to demonstrate that melt from a shared mantle source within the Hawaiian plume may be transported alternately to Kīlauea or Maunaloa on a timescale of decades. This process led to a correlated temporal variation in 206Pb/204Pb and 87Sr/86Sr at these volcanoes since the early 19th century with each becoming more active when it received melt from the shared source. Ratios of highly over moderately incompatible trace elements (e.g. Nb/Y) at Kīlauea reached a minimum from ~2000 to 2010, which coincides with an increase in seismicity and inflation at the summit of Maunaloa. Thereafter, a reversal in Nb/Y at Kīlauea signals a decline in the degree of mantle partial melting at this volcano and suggests that melt from the shared source is now being diverted from Kīlauea to Maunaloa for the first time since the early to mid-20th century. These observations link a mantle-related shift in melt generation and transport at Kīlauea to the awakening of Maunaloa in 2002 and its eruption in 2022. Monitoring of lava chemistry is a potential tool that may be used to forecast the behavior (e.g. eruption rate and frequency) of these adjacent volcanoes on a timescale of decades. A future increase in eruptive activity at Maunaloa is likely if the temporal increase in Nb/Y continues at Kīlauea.

Triggering the 2022 eruption of Mauna Loa

Distinguishing periods of intermittent unrest from the run-up to eruption is a major challenge at volcanoes around the globe. Comparing multidisciplinary monitoring data with mineral chemistry that records the physical and spatio-temporal evolution of magmas fundamentally advances our ability to forecast eruptions. The recent eruption of Mauna Loa, Earth’s largest active volcano, provides a unique opportunity to differentiate unrest from run-up and improve forecasting of future eruptions. After decades of intermittent seismic and geodetic activity over 38 years of repose, Mauna Loa began erupting on 27 November 2022. Here we present a multidisciplinary synthesis that tracks the spatio-temporal evolution of precursory activity by integrating mineral and melt chemistry, fluid inclusion barometry, numerical modeling of mineral zoning, syn-eruptive gas plume measurements, the distribution and frequency of earthquake hypocenters, seismic velocity changes, and ground deformation. These diverse data indicate that the eruption occurred following a 2-month period of sustained magma intrusion from depths of 3–5 km up to 1–2 km beneath the summit caldera, providing a new model of the plumbing system at this very high threat volcano. Careful correlation of both the geochemistry and instrumental monitoring data improves our ability to distinguish unrest from the run-up to eruption by providing deeper understanding of the both the monitoring data and the magmatic system—an approach that could be applied at other volcanic systems worldwide.

The ad 79 Vesuvius eruption revisited: the pyroclastic density currents

Seventeen pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) were produced before, during and after the Plinian phase of the ad 79 eruption of Vesuvius. Their deposits were correlated using the proportions of components, together with the recognition of distinctive intercalated regionally traceable fall marker layers, revealing sectoral and distance-dependent variations. During an extensive field analysis, 27 lithostratigraphic units were detected and mapped and the lateral and vertical variations of 15 lithofacies were documented, described and interpreted. The total volume of PDC units is 1.25 km 3 . We consider that the early PDCs were generated by partial collapses from the sustained Plinian eruption column, whereas the subsequent post-Plinian PDCs were generated by more sustained pyroclastic fountaining. New facies mapping revealed lateral migration and extended travel distances for some of the currents. Most of the lobed PDCs remained relatively uniform, whereas the radial PDCs exhibited fluctuating waxing and waning pulses and changed gradationally down-current. Re-evaluation of the timing of caldera collapse and the transition from a magmatic to a phreatomagmatic eruption style suggests that substrate fracturing during incremental caldera subsidence may have allowed the gradual ingress of groundwater into the erupting magma. These results provide a new chronology of the eruption, revealing that the post-Plinian collapse phase lasted c. 12 h.

Petrogenesis of episodic volcanic-intrusive rocks in SE China: Crystal-melt segregation and magma mixing

Crystal-melt segregation and magma mixing are key magmatic processes that generate compositional variabilities in igneous rocks. Distinguishing these processes can provide insight into the evolution of volcanic calderas and the driving force of plate subduction. Intensive episodic magmatism occurred in Southeast China during the Cretaceous, producing a series of volcanic-intrusive rocks during different magmatic stages in chain-like calderas. We conducted comprehensive petrological, geochemical, isotopic, and zircon trace element analyses on two representative calderas (Xiaoxiong and Shiniushan).The results show that the magmatism produced multistage volcanic and coexisting intrusive rocks regarding their crystallization ages (102–88 Ma) and NdHf isotopic compositions (zircon ɛHf(t) = −11.7 to −1.8, whole-rock εNd(t) = −8.3 to −2.4). The volcanic and intrusive rocks are related by fractional crystallization.In general, the erupted silicic rhyolitic rocks are characterized by distinctly negative Eu anomalies (δEu = 0.10–0.71) and depletions of Ba, Sr, P, and Ti, while the coexisting intrusive rocks show distinct or complementary geochemical signatures, such as neglectable Eu anomalies (δEu = 0.92–1.09) and positive Ba anomalies. Furthermore, the whole-rock samples from the calderas have variable δ41K values (from −0.14 ‰ to −0.59 ‰) that show strong correlations with indices of fractional crystallization such as Eu anomaly, Sr content, and K2O/Na2O ratios, indicating a key role of plagioclase during crystal-melt segregation. This is also supported by petrographic evidence for crystal accumulation such as the synneusis of plagioclase phenocrysts. Mafic microgranular enclaves in the volcanic-intrusive rocks indicate that magma recharge events occurred in the magma reservoir. Synthesizing these lines of evidence, we argue the multiple magmatism in plate subduction zone can be sustained by recharge events in the magma reservoir along with crystal-melt segregation processes. Particularly, the volcanic rocks tend to have isotopically lighter K than intrusive rocks, and strongly support that the volcanic rocks represent the extracted melt that is complementary to the cumulative intrusive rocks.

Cross-Sectoral and Multilevel Dimensions of Risk and Resilience Management in Urban Areas Enabled by Geospatial Data Processing

The growing complexity of cities and the unprecedented pace of urbanisation create exposure and vulnerabilities to extreme events and crises that are difficult to manage and plan for as widely acknowledged by the existing literature. In this paper, three main challenges to be tackled are identified based on the selected literature according to the interpretation of the authors based on extended research in the field. Those challenges relate to the multi-risk environment characterising many contemporary cities, the need to overcome sectoral approaches towards increased alignment of emergency and spatial planning at different scales, and the opportunities that derive from integrated risk and resilience management. Such challenges are evidenced in the Pozzuoli case study, a densely inhabited municipality of the metropolitan city of Naples, placed into a volcanic caldera, that has been analysed in the light of the above challenges for an extended period of time of about fifty years. The in-depth assessment of the quality of urban development has been enabled by geospatial data management. Advanced geospatial information systems are not only instrumental in depicting the history of urban development in the period of consideration but also as an enabler to tackle the above-mentioned challenges. In fact, such systems permit a much more dynamic and updatable assessment of multirisk conditions and provide the basis for shared knowledge among the large number of stakeholders that are responsible for different sectoral and comprehensive urban and risk-related plans.

Anatomy of a Lunar Silicic Construct—The Wolf Crater Complex, Mare Nubium and Implications for Early Silicic Magmatism on the Moon

AbstractSilicic lithologies on planetary surfaces indicate magmatic evolutionary processes in their interiors. The Wolf crater complex within Mare Nubium on the Moon is one such silicic construct associated with a high thorium anomaly. This study integrates morphological, compositional, chronological and gravity anomaly analyses of high‐resolution data from various lunar missions to establish this construct as a silicic volcanic caldera. Lobate flows with steeply sloping fronts indicate that the crater rims comprise high‐viscosity silicic lavas, while the structurally controlled inner crater walls suggest caldera collapse triggered by magma depletion. In the crater rims, low Christiansen Feature position values reaffirm the presence of silicic lithologies, consistent with the low gravity anomaly signature beneath the complex, while spectroscopic data reveal low mafic mineral abundances and negligible hydration features. Chronological analyses yield silicic volcanism ages coeval with surrounding mare basalts (3.8–3.6 Ga), while intra‐caldera basalts have 2.36–2.02 Ga ages, indicating prolonged magmatism in this region. Melting of suitable crustal protoliths like alkali gabbronorite/monzogabbro/troctolite by basaltic underplating is inferred to have generated silicic magmas that formed the Wolf volcanic complex, instead of basaltic magma fractionation or silicate‐liquid immiscibility processes. Large impacts during the Late Heavy Bombardment may have enhanced partial melting of the mantle and created crustal fractures that facilitated the ascent of viscous silicic melts through the lunar crust. Contemporaneous existence of suitable protoliths and adequate crustal pathways for magma ascent may have controlled silicic volcanism on the Moon, and can explain the sporadic occurrence and overlapping ages of the lunar silicic constructs.

Magma fizz: Tremor during the Kīlauea summit reservoir decompression

Typical eruptions at Kīlauea volcano involve the evacuation of magma from the summit and/or south caldera reservoirs towards the East or Southwest rift zones. The reservoir drainage provokes the summit deflation, and on extreme occasions, such as in 2018, the summit caldera collapse. Systematically, seismic tremor, often with a particular multichromatic spectral signature characterized by frequency gliding, accompanies summit deflation episodes. In 2018, this type of continuous tremor accompanied the steady subsidence stage, whereas discrete earthquakes dominated the collapse stage. In this work, we aim to understand the source mechanism of the syn-deflation tremor of 2018. To locate the seismic source, we develop a novel machine-learning-based algorithm as an alternative to the amplitude source location technique. We use a large high-resolution catalog to resolve a composite amplitude decay function. Under these conditions, our method outperforms the traditional technique. We locate the tremor source 1 km below the eastern perimeter of the Halema‘uma‘u crater, which coincides with the position of the summit magma reservoir, as determined in many other studies. Furthermore, we model the seismic source as pressure oscillations driven by gas porous flow at the roof of the reservoir. In this model, gas accumulates temporarily in many gas pockets between the magma and the roof. Our modeling shows that the gas flux is responsible for the tremor amplitude modulations, whereas the gas pocket thickness controls the frequency variations. Beyond a critical point of depressurization, the magma cannot contribute further to the tremor oscillations via decompression-driven degassing, nor support the roof above it, resulting in rock failure. This work advances our understanding of magma-degassing dynamics and tremor generation at Kilauea volcano, and provides novel seismological techniques for volcano seismology monitoring and research.

Characteristics of the Density and Magnetic Susceptibility of Pumice from the Maninjau Caldera-Forming Eruption, Indonesia

Abtract- Lake Maninjau is a volcanic caldera formed by a volcanic eruption located in West Sumatra. This volcanic eruption threw pyroclastic materials, one of which is pumice, as far as ± 75 km from the center of the eruption. This study aims to determine density and magnetic susceptibility characteristics of pumice from maninjau caldera-forming eruptions, indonesia. The method used is the rock-magnetic method. It is used to measure magnetic susceptibility based on the distribution of volcanic material. The samples were selected from 3 different locations around Mount Maninjau with distances varying between ±12-32 km. A Bartington Magnetic Susceptibility Metre Type B (MS2B) instrument was utilised to determine the susceptibility of rocks and X-ray fluorescence (XRF) to identify rock element levels. The results of the data analysis obtained have magnetic density and susceptibility values in the NGS (Ngarai Sianok) area, which ranged from 0.67-1.77×103 kg/m3 and 4.4-826×10-8m3/kg, the LBS (Lubuk Basung) area which ranged of 0.74-1.34×103 kg/m3 and 6.6-625.4×10-8m3/kg, and the PRM (Pariaman) area, which ranged from 0.68-3.63×103 kg/m3 and 8-359×10-8m3/kg. The results showed that when sampling closer to Mount Maninjau, the pumice is characterized by dense, fresh, but very small pore size and dominated by slightly greyish white pumice with few white crystals on its surface. Therefore, the location of the pumice from Mount Maninjau has a significant influence on its characteristics, including density, magnetic susceptibility, and iron (Fe) and titanium (Ti) content. Keywords: Pumice, Density, Magnetic Susceptibility, Mount Maninjau, XRF

Deep Learning Forecasts Caldera Collapse Events at Kı̄lauea Volcano

AbstractDuring the 3 month long eruption of Kı̄lauea volcano, Hawaii in 2018, the pre‐existing summit caldera collapsed in over 60 quasi‐periodic failure events. The last 40 of these events, which generated Mw > 5 very long period (VLP) earthquakes, had inter‐event times between 0.8 and 2.2 days. These failure events offer a unique data set for testing methods for predicting earthquake recurrence based on locally recorded GPS, tilt, and seismicity data. In this work, we train a deep learning graph neural network (GNN) to predict the time‐to‐failure of the caldera collapse events using only a fraction of the data recorded at the start of each cycle. We find that the GNN generalizes to unseen data and can predict the time‐to‐failure to within a few hours using only 0.5 days of data, substantially improving upon a null model based only on inter‐event statistics. Predictions improve with increasing input data length, and are most accurate when using high‐SNR tilt‐meter data. Applying the trained GNN to synthetic data with different magma‐chamber pressure decay times predicts failure at a nearly constant stress threshold, revealing that the GNN is sensing the underling physics of caldera collapse. These findings demonstrate the predictability of caldera collapse sequences under well monitored conditions, and highlight the potential of machine learning methods for forecasting real world catastrophic events with limited training data.

Seismic characteristics of the 2022-2023 unrest episode at Taupō volcano, Aotearoa New Zealand

Taupō is a large caldera volcano located beneath a lake in the centre of the North Island of New Zealand and most recently erupted ~1800 years ago. The volcano has experienced at least 16 periods of unrest since 1872, each of which were characterised by increased seismic activity. Here we detail seismic activity during the most recent period of unrest from May 2022 to May 2023. The unrest was notable for the highest number of earthquakes detected during instrumented unrest episodes, and for one of the largest magnitude earthquakes detected beneath the lake for at least 50 years (ML 5.7). Relocated earthquakes indicate seismic activity was focused around an area hosting overlapping caldera structures and a hydrothermal system. Moment tensor inversion for the largest earthquake includes a non-negligible inflationary isotropic component. We suggest the seismic unrest was caused by the reactivation of faults due to an intrusion of magma at depth.

Newly identified small vulcanian eruptions during the caldera-forming stage of Towada Volcano, Northeast Japan

Understanding the detailed eruptive history and conditions during the buildup to catastrophic caldera-forming eruptions is essential for understanding the evolution of caldera volcanoes and predicting eruptive hazards. Towada Volcano is an active caldera volcano in the northern part of the Northeast Japan Arc. At least two catastrophic caldera-forming eruptions (eruptive episodes N and L) occurred during its caldera-forming stage (61–15.7 ka). A detailed geological survey identified three small vulcanian tephra layers that were erupted during the caldera-forming stage. The tephra layers are blue–gray ash fall deposits that consist mainly of fresh blocky dacite–rhyolite fragments. In ascending order, these deposits are assigned to eruptive episodes O′, N′, and M′. Each eruption had a volume of <0.11 km3, which is much smaller than that of other eruptions during the caldera-forming stage. The eruptive ages of episodes O′, N′, and M′ are estimated to be ca. 40, 23.1, and 17.2 ka, respectively, based on new 14C ages and paleosol thicknesses data. At least three cycles of a medium- to large-scale (3–20 km3) explosive eruption, preceded by a small vulcanian eruption (<0.11 km3), occurred during the latter half of the caldera-forming stage. The small vulcanian eruptions (episodes O′, N′, and M′) occurred after relatively long periods of quiescence (4000–14,000 years) and were followed by medium- to large-scale explosive eruptions (episodes N, M, and L) 1500–4000 years later. This cyclic activity probably reflects changes in overpressure in the magma reservoir. As the overpressure increased, episodes O′, N′, and M′ probably occurred when the overpressure had not increased sufficiently to trigger a medium- to large-scale explosive eruption, and episodes N, M, and L occurred at higher overpressures. These cycles characterize the fermentation phase of Towada Volcano, and terminated with the formation of the Towada Caldera during episode L at 15.7 ka. The magma composition and eruption frequency changed abruptly after episode L, and a small stratovolcano was formed through intermittent eruptions of mafic magma. This change suggests that the caldera collapse during episode L changed the entire shallow magmatic system that existed during the fermentation phase, and the system shifted to a recovery (post-caldera) phase. Based on eruptive volumes and frequencies, the present Towada Volcano has not yet reached the conditions that existed during the late caldera-forming stage and is therefore unlikely to produce a catastrophic caldera-forming eruption in the near future.

Evolution of a large-scale phreatoplinian eruption: Constraints from the 40 ka caldera-forming eruption of Kutcharo volcano, eastern Hokkaido, Japan

“Phreatoplinian” is an explosive phreatomagmatic eruption style that is defined by the fragmentation of magma and widespread dispersal of the resulting fine ash and accretionary lapilli. These eruptions pose significant future risks at caldera volcanoes that host lakes and abundant groundwater. There have been no direct observations of a phreatoplinian eruption, therefore, constraining the detailed mechanisms and sequences of such events relies on studying the deposits of previous eruptions. In order to advance our understanding of these hazardous phenomena we conducted a case study of the 40 ka caldera-forming eruption (Kp I) from Kutcharo volcano in eastern Hokkaido, Japan. We subdivided Kp I eruption deposits into 7 units (Units 1 to 7 in ascending order). Units 1 to 6 are air fall deposits consisting of alternating thin pumice and thick silty ash layers with abundant spherical accretionary lapilli. Stratigraphically higher ash fall units are thicker, finer in grain-size, and more widely distributed. The maximum eruption column height and mass-discharge rate were calculated to be 40 km and 1.4 × 109 kg/s, respectively. Unit 7 is a climactic ignimbrite (76 km3), which is distributed widely over the area north of Kutcharo caldera.Unit 6 is the largest air fall unit and can be considered to have been deposited by a phreatoplinian eruption, given its abundant accretionary lapilli, wide dispersion, and high degree of fragmentation. Unit 6 had the highest mass discharge rate (1.4 × 109 kg/s), suggesting the interaction between magma and external water was most intense, and it is thought that a large eruption column covered eastern Hokkaido. In addition, Kp I eruption deposits commonly contain glass shards derived from fragmentation via both magma degassing and Molten Fuel Coolant Interaction (MFCI). To account for this observation, we infer that the conduit penetrated a large aquifer, and the margin of the ascending magma came into contact with this external water source. Due to repeated caldera-forming eruptions, intra-caldera filled deposits (hosting a large aquifer) likely played a key role in supplying external caldera lake water to a level near the fragmentation depth of H2O-saturated felsic magma. The occurrence of these intra-caldera conduit and caldera-lake systems may provide the required conditions for phreatoplinian eruptions at continental arc caldera volcanoes in Japan and globally.

Locating Nesting Sites for Critically Endangered Galápagos Pink Land Iguanas (Conolophus marthae).

Invasive alien species control is recognized worldwide as a priority action to preserve global biodiversity. However, a lack of general life history knowledge for threatened species can impede the effectiveness of conservation actions. Galápagos pink land iguanas (Conolophus marthae) are endemic to Wolf Volcano, Galápagos, Ecuador. These iguanas are threatened by invasive alien species, particularly feral cats, that may affect their small population size. To guarantee the long-term survival of C. marthae, the Galápagos National Park Directorate is considering, along with an ongoing campaign of feral cat control, the implementation of a head-start program. However, the success of this management strategy necessarily relies on the identification of pink iguana nesting grounds, which were still unknown at the onset of this study. We modeled the movement patterns of male and female iguanas during the reproductive season, using location data collected from custom-made remote tracking devices installed on adult pink iguanas in April 2021. We first calculated for each individual the vector of distances from its starting location, which was defined as net displacement. We then used net displacement as the response variable in a generalized additive mixed model with day of the year as the predictor. Based on the hypothesis that males and females may behaviorally differ after mating, we looked for female-specific migratory behavior suggesting females were moving toward nesting areas. The results obtained confirmed our hypothesis, as females exhibited a distinct migratory behavior, reaching a small plateau area inside of Wolf Volcano's caldera and ca. 400 m below the volcano's northern rim. Moreover, once inside the caldera, females displayed a more aggregated distribution pattern. The movement data obtained allowed Galápagos National Park rangers to locate individual pink iguana nests and subsequently to sight and collect the first observed hatchlings of the species. This work constitutes a necessary baseline to perform dedicated studies of pink iguana nests and emerging hatchling iguanas, which is an essential step toward the development of an effective head-start program.

Seismic Features Predict Ground Motions During Repeating Caldera Collapse Sequence

AbstractApplying machine learning to continuous acoustic emissions, signals previously deemed noise, from laboratory faults and slowly slipping subduction‐zone faults, demonstrates hidden signatures are emitted that describe physical details, including fault displacement and friction. However, no evidence currently exists to demonstrate that similar hidden signals occur during seismogenic stick‐slip on earthquake faults—the damaging earthquakes of most societal interest. We show that continuous seismic emissions emitted during the 2018 multi‐month caldera collapse sequence at the Kı̄lauea volcano in Hawai'i contain hidden signatures characterizing the earthquake cycle. Multi‐spectral data features extracted from 30 s intervals of the continuous seismic emission are used to train a gradient boosted tree regression model to predict the GNSS‐derived contemporaneous surface displacement and time‐to‐failure of the upcoming collapse event. This striking result suggests that at least some faults emit such signals and provide a potential path to characterizing the instantaneous and future behavior of earthquake faults.

Potential Sunda Strait tsunami hazard due to the current deformation of Anak Krakatau

Abstract The tsunami Sunda Strait event at 2018 is a prove that volcanic activity may trigger a devastating and unpredictable tsunami. Several findings indicate that this catasrophe generated by flank collapse caused by the instability of Gunung Anak Krakatau (AK). Other processes of volcanic activity that cause tsunamis include pyroclastic flows, subaerial and submarine landslides, underwater explosions, blasts, and caldera collapse. In the 1883, Krakatau Mount produced the largest tsunami event, and it is apparent that AK is one of threats in Sunda Strait that may potentially produce tsunami in the future since it is still active until now. Some latest research shows there are two submarine landslide threats near Gunung Anak Krakatau; in the northeast part of AK and an elliptical landslide source in the west part of AK with the estimated landslide volume about 0.014 km3 and 0.6 km3, respectively. Those threats will be simulated by shallow water equation model to obtain the tsunami wave height near the source and at crucial areas along Sunda Strait as well as its tsunami time arrival. The first scenario is sourced from a new deposit from the 2018 eruption, and the latter is a change of slopes bathymetry due to volcanic or seismic activity. It is observed that the highest elevation of tsunami from the first scenario reached only 2.5 cm at Tanjung Lesung, Banten and 80 cm at the nearest island, Panjang Island. The second scenario has the height of 50 cm at Labuan, Banten and 70 cm at Panjang Island. The tsunami time travel at the surrounding islands is ranging between 0.6 - 5.8 minutes (scenario 1) and 0.7-4.9 minutes (scenario 2). Both scenario reached the inexpensive device of sea level monitoring at the east side of Rakata after 5 minutes and the height is 30 cm and 1.6 cm respectively for scenario 1 and 2.