Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity And Ambiguity Research Articles

Military Leadership in a VUCA Environment and BANI Scenario: A Systematic Literature review

The World has been subjected to successive and rapid changes that modified its order and given rise to a constant state of certainty of uncertainties, as a fluid state of accelerated change and vagueness in the global scenario. For some authors we are living in an environment of Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity (VUCA), as for others in a Brittle, Anxious, Nonlinear and Incomprehensible (BANI) scenario that affects organizations, with serious implications for their leadership and management. In the case of countries' military organizations, this affects the operations’ design, the type of equipment used and fundamentally their training, from which we highlight leadership. So, how is military leadership characterized in a VUCA world and BANI scenario? According to this research question we carried out a systematic literature review with a qualitative approach doing an update of a previous similar study carried out by the authors, looking for new publications that could enrich the comprehension of the topic. Thus, studies were searched in different databases, according to the selected criteria. Guided by the review question we adopt the PRISMA protocol for screening process divided into three phases: identification, screening and inclusion of studies. So, eleven studies were added . Data collected point out that as traditional leadership models are unable to faithfully reflect the modelling of new challenges and realities and military leadership in a VUCA world and BANI scenario is characterized by a complex combination of competencies in a personal, relational and organizational level. Among them the capacity to think out of the box, to be creative, innovative, intuitive, resilient, flexible and adaptative, based on a state of constant awareness and mindfulness to see the global situation and make the best decisions. No other study was found addressing the same research question. So, it seems to be the first study to systematically analyze military leadership in a VUCA environment. This way, it can be a contribution to understanding this topic and to frame future empirical studies.

Social environment, health cognition, and health behavior: how individuals with non-fixed employment end up with adverse health outcomes in China under the era of VUCA?-findings from PLS-SEM and fsQCA.

This article studied the single-factor causal relationships between the social environment, health cognition, and health behavior of the individuals with non-fixed employment and their adverse health outcomes, as well as the complex causal relationships of multiple factors on these outcomes. Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) and Fuzzy-Set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) are employed. Data is collected from the results of an open questionnaire Psychology and Behavior Investigation of Chinese Residents 2021. PLS-SEM analysis reveals that health risk behaviors and cognition play a mediating role in impact of the social environment on adverse health outcomes, indicating that individuals with non-fixed employment susceptible to adverse health outcomes. fsQCA analysis identifies that weak social support is a core condition leading to outcomes of depression and anxiety. There are shared configurations and causal pathways between the outcomes of physical health and depression. The study supports the social determinants theory of health and suggests that the fundamental reason for people being trapped in adverse health outcomes is the health inequality caused by social stratification, and the external shock of uncertainty in the era of VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity).

Paradigmatic reflections in cross-cultural management to make sense of a VUCA world

PurposeThis paper aims to investigate the concept of VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity) in the field of cross-cultural management.Design/methodology/approachThe related literature has been analysed from various paradigmatic lenses.FindingsAs the VUCA world concept originates from business circles, several key articles were published in non-academic journals. Two distinct groups of publications can be identified: consulting literature and academic literature on the VUCA world. While both consulting literature and academic literature about the VUCA world can be associated with functionalism, alternative research paradigms can easily accommodate new studies in connection with the VUCA world: interpretive, critical and postmodern works would fit the features of the VUCA world, along with multi-paradigm studies.Research limitations/implicationsIt is advisable to investigate emergent contemporary issues, often labelled VUCA, according to multiple paradigms and to conduct multi-paradigmatic research.Originality/valueWhile consulting literature on the VUCA world implicitly assumes functionalist paradigms, academic literature might provide alternative assumptions. Interpretative, critical and postmodern paradigms more accurately address the issues raised by VUCA.

The Future of Warfare in the Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity Context

Abstract The war of the future represents an increasingly difficult concept to model through the implementation of emerging and disruptive technologies in a Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity (VUCA) context. The study of wars is essential in conflict prevention and peace building. In our paper we analyze the determining parameters of the contemporary operational environment against which we estimate possible directions of evolution of this phenomenon. The technological approach to war allows the identification of indicators of the development of emerging and disruptive technologies in an ethical framework and reinforces the strategies of forming a security culture through the mass education of citizens. The results of the research and the conclusions formulated can also constitute priorities for the strategies to strengthen the resilience of the national security and defense infrastructures.

Reshaping Education Curriculum Landscape: Lessons from Unprecedented Past

Experiences may be obsolete in the days of VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity), but lessons to learn are fresh and essential. This study aimed to explore the academic voices of teachers during VUCA period to find their needs and aspirations as essential inputs in reshaping the academic landscape of the education curriculum. Using a qualitative content analysis approach, seven teachers were purposely selected as participants in the study. Findings revealed that a) teachers’ mental anxiety was raised to a higher level; b) they suffered physical illness resulting from psychological stress and c) they experienced instructional frustration such as anxiety in the use of technology, dissatisfaction with virtual classes, and writing course pack as an added burden. As such, they needed a) mental wellness preservation, b) physical health protection, c) spiritual and moral boosters, d) personal quality time and, e) assessing student outcomes was a great challenge. This study recommends to reshape the landscape of the present education curriculum by integrating courses that address the lessons of the unprecedented past like innovative mental anxiety management, catastrophic crisis management, spiritual boosters, work-life balance, hygiene and sanitation, and the new ways of doing things for assessing student outcomes with futuristic approach.

Learning and development in highly dynamic VUCA contexts: a new framework for the L&D function

PurposeThis article introduces the special issue of Learning and Development in Highly-Dynamic VUCA Contexts. The issue reviews the concept of VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity), highlights its implications for the learning and development function and argues that learning and development play a critical role in helping organisations, people and the societal context in which they operate to work within and navigate VUCA contexts.Design/methodology/approachThe contributions to this special issue propose a novel learning and development framework that will inform L&D as the provision of training, learning and development activities in organisations within highly dynamic VUCA contexts and ensuring a strong external focus including organisational, people, community, economic and societal sustainability.FindingsWe, the authors, propose seven features of a strategic sustainability L&D function and L&D professional role that are a fit with highly dynamic VUCA contexts.Practical implicationsThe proposed framework has important implications for the way in which L&D is structured, its key priorities and plans and the competencies of L&D professionals to add value to all stakeholders. We also emphasise that the work on the L&D function in highly dynamic VUCA contexts needs to be broader and move beyond a performance orientation.Originality/valueThe proposed strategic sustainability role for the L&D function expands theoretically our understanding of how L&D can have impacts at the nexus of the organisation and highly dynamic VUCA contexts, in addition to broadening the constellation of stakeholders that it potentially enhances.

Optimization of Transformative Leadership to Enhance Organizational Performance: Policing Strategic Analysis at Industrial Revolution 4.0 Era to Maintain Security and Public Order

Abstract The Bojonegoro Resort Police, a middle manager in the Indonesian National Police, proactively adapts to the Fourth Industrial Revolution's challenges, marked by VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity). They prioritize staying informed about developments and taking initiative. Strategies for security and public order maintenance, including crime prevention and increased surveillance, are effectively planned and implemented. Qualitative field research explores how transformative leadership optimizes policing and performance. Findings reveal: 1) Leaders model idealized influence and inspire a shared vision; 2) They provide inspirational motivation; 3) Leaders foster intellectual stimulation by promoting skill development and critical thinking; 4) Individualized consideration is shown through active delegation and control measures. In conclusion, the Bojonegoro Resort Police's proactive, transformative leadership helps them navigate the Fourth Industrial Revolution's challenges, enhancing organizational performance in maintaining security and public order.

Leading collaborative change amid a crisis: a framework to liberate a team’s leadership skills and promote sales performance

PurposeThis study aims to introduce an alternative model, “volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity (VUCA), Virtue and Vice” (3V’s), to unleash leadership skills, promote organisational collaborative change and impact sales performance during an unprecedented crisis.Design/methodology/approachThe methodology outlines action research based on the 3V’s model and its application in an international business-to-business sales organisation during Covid-19. It explores alternative paths informed by play-at-work and Plato’s philosophy applied to work-based-learning. Each action/iteration adds to the model, which becomes more likely appropriate for various situations.FindingsThe 3V’s boosted change implementation and improved sales performance. The 3V’s conceptualised an invitation to immerse oneself in the constant “river of change” (VUCA) and a means of understanding the role of leadership in navigating this change by embracing simple rules: searching for justice (Virtue) and overcoming the barrier of public opinion (Vice).Research limitations/implicationsThe 3V’s model is grounded in leadership literature and a sole application, providing real international data relevant to organisations and leaders. This has yet to be evaluated further.Practical implications3V’s can enhance the understanding of a leading collaborative change and re-frame team dynamics in post-pandemic times for the broader public.Social implicationsThe approach advocated is a practice of “swimming alongside the team”, which should enable empowerment and collaboration rather than a top-down direction. Focussing on leaders who are moral people, this approach becomes a differentiator in a digital world.Originality/valueThis study examines Plato’s philosophy, play-at-work and other leadership theories in a model which prepares organisations to respond to crisis by providing the ability to reflect on human aspects and straightforward, transferable skills.

Does Psychological Capital Mediate the Relationship Between Transformational Leadership and Adaptive Performance of Civil Servant?

The Fourth Industrial Revolution (4.0) and the advent of the Society 5.0 era, have ushered us into a VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity) environment. The adaptability of employees has become paramount, necessitating organizations to focus on managing and enhancing adaptive performance alongside routine task completion. Consequently, employee adaptive performance has emerged as a critical aspect of human resource management in both private and public sectors. This study aims to explore the relationship between transformational leadership, psychological capital, and adaptive performance, drawing on the Conservation of Resources Theory and Self-Determination Theory. Additionally, the research seeks to address whether psychological capital mediates the connection between transformational leadership and adaptive performance. Utilizing questionnaire data collected from 317 civil servants at the Ministry of Communication and Informatics of the Republic of Indonesia, the results reveal that 1) transformational leadership does not significantly impact adaptive performance, 2) psychological capital significantly and positively influences adaptive performance, 3) transformational leadership significantly and positively affects psychological capital, and 4) psychological capital fully mediates the relationship between transformational leadership and adaptive performance. These findings contribute to the development of a theoretical framework for fostering adaptive performance in public sector organizations and offer a fresh perspective in human resource management.

A VUCA-ready workforce: exploring employee competencies and learning and development implications

PurposeThe author aims to develop an employee competency framework for a volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity (VUCA) environment and propose learning and development (L&D) interventions for organisations and employees to develop competencies for thriving in a VUCA environment.Design/methodology/approachThe framework synthesis method was used to determine employee competencies that are essential in a VUCA world.FindingsThe author identified 10 competencies that are essential for employee development in a VUCA world. The author categorised these employee competencies as cognitive (cognitive flexibility, agility mindset and personal ambidexterity), cross-cultural (cross-cultural intelligence and cross-cultural collaboration), analytical (creativity and complex problem solving) and personal effectiveness competencies (personal resilience, continuous learning and adaptive mindset).Practical implicationsThe proposed competencies could be used for the personal development of employees and organisations. The VUCA competency framework developed in this study includes behavioural dimensions for each competency, which could be used in self-assessment, recruitment and selection and talent and performance management. Furthermore, the author proposes L&D interventions required for developing these competencies. Overall, this study contributes to human resources (HR) development in the VUCA era by proposing the development of specific individual competencies as necessary conditions for survival and growth.Originality/valueVUCA competencies empower employees to not only survive but also thrive in an unpredictable and rapidly changing world. By incorporating these competencies in L&D interventions, organisations can help employees develop the necessary competencies to thrive in a VUCA environment, thus contributing to their personal and organisational success.

Innovation management of higher education institutions: A study of entrepreneurial competence development and further governance

Innovation management of educational institutions as agents of change and development of entrepreneurial competencies is a focus of attention entering the volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity (VUCA) era in Indonesia because higher education is recognized as a locus for the development of innovation, science, technology, and art. The purpose of this article is to understand the role of educational institutions, especially Muhammadiyah University (UNISMUH) in Makassar, in managing innovation and developing entrepreneurship competencies as agents of change. The descriptive-qualitative research method with a phenomenological approach is applied in collecting data to be processed and analyzed using an interactive model. The results of the study found that creativity, basic values, and strategic value orientations of innovation and entrepreneurial competency development based on Muhammadiyah higher education institutions (HEIs) in Makassar through a knowledge management approach (KMA) have raised the image of HEI as agents of change and innovation in the local government context. The application of KMA through the process of knowledge creation in educational innovation and entrepreneurship programs is an integral part of the Independent Learning Independent Campus (Merdeka Belajar Kampus Merdeka — MBKM) program which is encouraged nationally.

Perhitungan Sederhana Nilai Tukar Riil Rupiah dan Keseimbangannya

For the public and private sectors, especially those dealing with the international world, monitoring exchange rate movements is very important. However, in the current conditions of volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity (VUCA), exchange rate projections become very challenging. Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) is a model used to estimate an exchange rate that is considered balanced based on fundamental factors. In connection with this, the author intends to inform you about BEER and its benefits. Therefore, this paper aims to estimate the balance of the real exchange rate (RER), so that exchange rate movements outside of equilibrium (misalignment) can be identified. The method used in this paper is the Error Correction Model (ECM). The author uses quarterly data with the aim of getting a long data series and more accurate estimation results. Meanwhile, the explanatory variables consist of productivity, interest rate differential, foreign reserves, terms of trade, and risk premium. From the estimation results, it is known that changes in productivity, interest rate differential and foreign exchange reserves have a significant positive effect on RER movements. The risk premium has a significant negative effect, while the terms of trade are not significant. It is hoped that the results of this simple analysis will provide additional insight for policy makers and economic practitioners in understanding the dynamics of the real rupiah exchange rate and efforts to maintain its stability. It is also hoped that this article will provide a strong basis for considering more effective policies in managing the rupiah exchange rate.
 Keywords: exchange rate, equilibrium, fundamental factor, flexibility

Adaptive Policy Education in the VUCA Era for Jetis Sidoarjo Batik Craftsmen

Industry 4.0 has brought a major transformation in the industrial paradigm, with digital technology that continues to develop and the start of the era of volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity (VUCA) making businesses have to think about strategic steps to maintain sustainability and resilience. Therefore, every business is required to be adaptive, especially in making policies and managing them. Kampung Batik Jetis Sidoarjo, which is a center for written batik that has existed since the 1900s, is also not immune from these challenges. The purpose of this study is to determine the description of the adaptive policies of Batik Jetis Sidoarjo craftsmen in facing the VUCA era. The method of writing scientific articles uses qualitative research methods and data collection techniques in the form of interviews and observations. This research activity explains the adaptive policy strategies of batik craftsmen and the efforts that can be made to face the VUCA era. The results showed that Jetis batik craftsmen rely on strong communication relationships with customers to help craftsmen confidently face the VUCA era.

Influence of Coordination and Strategic Planning on Organizational Performance with Change Management Mediating Variables in the Era of Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity (VUCA)

Strategic management functions are elements that are always attached to the management process which will be used as a reference in carrying out activities or structured planning to achieve predetermined goals. This research aims to design a change management model for organizational performance at government institution XYZ in an era of volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity (VUCA). The social theory used in this research is Marxian theory, the name for several theoretical explanations inspired by Karl Marx. The emphasis in Marxian theory is that old assumptions such as the opposition of two large classes, the bourgeoisie and the proletariat, inspire explanations of modern phenomena. Research data was obtained by filling out an online questionnaire by 207 employees of the XYZ government agency. The sampling method used was purposive sampling. The variables used in this research are coordination, strategic planning, change management, and organizational performance. The influence of coordination, strategic planning and change management variables on organizational performance will be modeled using a structural equation model. The results show that there is a positive influence of coordination, strategic planning and change management variables on organizational performance. Change management variables are proven to fully mediate the influence of coordination and strategic planning on organizational performance. Its effectiveness can be seen from coordination and strategic planning which cannot significantly influence organizational performance without the mediating variable of change management. The findings of this paper have academic, managerial, and policy implications that can provide a theoretical foundation for future research in measuring and managing organizational sustainability performance and contribute to knowledge in the field of performance measurement.

A framework for defining a guidance approach support: typology, concepts, and practice guidelines

ABSTRACT The paper presents a framework for school guidance in the twenty-first century that focuses the guidance approach, on promoting lifelong learning and takes into account the impact of VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity). It outlines the goals, objectives, and key players involved in guidance approach and provides a structured approach based on six levels: actors, devices, practices, main issues, objectives, and general aim. Four types of practices are defined to address four main societal objectives, which are linked to current challenges facing society. The framework aims to provide a tool for schools to implement and structure an educational approach to guidance.

The Influence of Transformational Leadership and Lecturer Motivation on Lecturer Performance Through Tacit Knowledge Sharing at the Institut Sains dan Teknologi Terpadu Surabaya

The Industrial Revolution 4.0 era created an environment known as VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity) as a result of rapid technological advances. VUCA impacts how people make decisions, plan, manage risk, drive change and solve problems in an increasingly information-hungry society. This change also requires leaders to think faster, process information in a short time, and have a clear vision. Higher education leaders need to provide good control to improve lecturer performance in preparing students for an increasingly complex world of work. Improving soft skills for students is a big challenge for university lecturers. Therefore, higher education leaders, such as at the Institut Sains dan Teknologi Terpadu Surabaya (ISTTS), must develop a transformational leadership management system that supports lecturer motivation, both intrinsic and extrinsic, and encourages the sharing of tacit knowledge. This research uses quantitative methods by collecting data through face-to-face questionnaires. The results of the descriptive analysis show that the role of leadership, lecturer motivation, and tacit knowledge sharing have a significant effect on lecturer performance, which in turn influences the overall performance of the institution. This research also found that the role of transformational leadership does not directly influence lecturer performance but through the mediation of tacit knowledge sharing. Lecturer motivation, on the other hand, has a significant influence both directly and through tacit knowledge sharing. Tacit knowledge sharing also has a positive and significant impact on lecturer performance. These findings confirm that transformational leadership and lecturer motivation have an impact on lecturer performance through sharing tacit knowledge.

Role of E-Commerce in Productivity

Productivity and production go hand in hand in the sustainability and management of any business enterprise. Due to the ever changing situations in this age of volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity (VUCA), productivity plays a crucial role in the success of a business, whether it is a service or a manufacturing or even an ancillary unit. Technological advancements have thrown both challenges and opportunities to enhance productivity. Ecommerce is one such significant contributing factor to productivity. This paper throws light upon the role of e-commerce in productivity, and enumerates the issues and challenges associated with the effective and efficient use of e-commerce for productivity.

How does digital transformation affect organisational sustainable performance: the mediating roles of supply chain agility and integration

ABSTRACT This study investigates the effect of digital transformation on sustainable performance in the volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity (VUCA) era. Survey data from China is used to test the mediating role of supply chain agility and integration as well as the moderating effect of perceived business force. The findings reveal that supply chain agility mediates the effects of digital transformation on economic and social performance, particularly under high level of perceived business force. However, no significant effect on environmental performance is observed. Additionally, supply chain integration acts as a mediator for the effects of digital transformation on economic, social and environmental performance, furthermore, the moderated mediation effects of perceived business force are supported. This study elusidates how digitalisation influences organisational sustainable performance through supply chain capabilities and highlights the crucial role of digital supply chain in the VUCA era. It provides theoretical and practical implications for achieving sustainable development.

A meta-analysis of the effects of lifelong vocational education in South Korea

PurposeThis study aims to conduct a quantitative meta-analysis of previous research on lifelong vocational education to generate generalized conclusions about its effects, set directions for future lifelong vocational education and identify implementation measures.Design/methodology/approachTo conduct a meta-analysis on research results that have a heterogeneous distribution, it is important to specify the analysis category for examining the effects of research variables.FindingsFirst, lifelong vocational education has an effect on dependent variables. And action appears to have the highest effect size on dependent variables. Next, when calculating the size of variables that had an effect on lifelong vocational education by educational type, the effect size of informal education was found to be larger than that of formal education. Finally, regarding the effect on the participants, office workers were influenced most, followed by university students, North Korean defectors, job seekers and foreigners.Research limitations/implicationsAlthough this study attempted to conduct an in-depth analysis of subcomponents, it was not possible to analyze variables at a more detailed level. Therefore, future studies should aim to conduct a more comprehensive analysis of different variables based on a wider composition. Because lifelong vocational education is relevant to people’s daily lives, it should be investigated in the context of their personal characteristics and social backgrounds.Practical implicationsThis research was designed to uncover general effects of lifelong vocational education and discover relevant variables affecting lifelong vocational education in South Korea. A meta-analysis of 15 studies with 67 subgroups examining lifelong vocational education was conducted.Social implicationsIn the current era of VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity), lifelong vocational education needs to be organized systematically, unlike in the past. With the rapid advancements in technology influenced by artificial intelligence and the fourth industrial revolution, there is a surge in social demands for continued reeducation and redevelopment of employees to prepare for talent development paradigm innovation, increasing unemployment among unskilled workers and competence enhancement needs among job seekers and employed individuals.Originality/valueThis study aims to conduct a quantitative meta-analysis of previous research on lifelong vocational education to draw generalized conclusions on its effectiveness and discuss its implications for implementation measures. Specifically, this study will analyze the general effect size; differences in the effect size among different dependent variable groups; and the effect size based on lifelong vocational education participants.

Managerial approaches, frameworks, and practices for business model application in public services management in the VUCA environment

Abstract Significant gaps in public services management were highlighted when service-dominant logic emerged in services science, resulting in fundamental changes in attitudes. The business model application in public services was initiated by offering public service logic. However, this concept requires justification of its interfaces with management approaches, frameworks, and practices. The VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity) environment has changed the existing managerial approach in organisational performance and services management. This paper aims to highlight the key aspects and justify the application of services management approaches, frameworks, and practices (Agile practices, customer experience management frameworks, and the design thinking approach) that coincide with the business model approach in public services management (public service logic) in a VUCA environment. In this paper, the Cochrane Guide to Literature Reviews was loosely followed. The focus was on academic publications and such expert sources as webinars for practitioners. Only publications and expert sources in English were included. The Scopus search engine was used for academic sources. Publications covering at least two of the following domains were included: Customer experience, business model, Agile practices, design thinking approach, public services, and VUCA. The expert sources were selected using purposive sampling when communities of practice were identified by authors with expert knowledge, and the main communication channels within each community of practice were sampled. The analysis showed that public services are defined as public goods that the State’s government commits to deliver in line with public values by applying a customer-centric approach. Integrating the design thinking approach and Agile practices help create customer-centric solutions for the customer experience management framework as design thinking helps understand what to do, while Scrum (one of Agile practices) gives the autonomy in deciding how to do it. Each analysed managerial method contributes uniquely to improving public services management in a VUCA environment.