Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity And Ambiguity Research Articles

School Leadership in Volatile Environments: The Zimbabwean Experience

School heads in Zimbabwe face relentless changes in the environment in which they operate. Volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity (VUCA) created by the diversity, intensity and rapidity of these changes present challenges on ways to effectively lead as existing methods apparently prove inadequate. This study examines the major sources of volatility that affect school operations in Zimbabwe. It explores the challenges faced by school heads as they live through volatility in their operational environments. It further explores the strategies that have been put in place to ensure that schools counter these challenges. The study employs a mixed design methodology that involves the use of both qualitative and quantitative methods complementing each other. The study employed convenience sampling to select twenty school heads that formed the study sample. The theoretical framework guiding this study was the chaos theory. The study found the major sources of volatility and resultant challenges were economic crisis, political interference, globalization, poor technology and disasters (both natural and manmade). The study found that agility, that is, the ability to communicate across the organization and to move quickly to apply solutions, was the key strategy school leaders could employ to cope and win in volatile environments. Resource planning was also found to be an important strategy to win in volatile environments characterized by many changes that affect the normal operations of schools. Perhaps the major finding was that complex problems in schools could be resolved through deliberate coordination, interventions and creative effort. System oriented thinking was found to enhance such interaction and engagement. The key recommendation for this study was the need for school heads to employ readiness strategies in turbulent environments and organizational resilience principles in line with this study’s findings.

SUPPLY CHAIN UNCERTAINTY: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF INDONESIA’S AGRO-INDUSTRY

Supply chain management (SCM) is a multi-stakeholder network for managing the flow of raw materials, finished products, information and money. The supply chain’s network refers to the interdependencies of the processes and activities. Taking this into account, stakeholders deal with an environment of volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity (VUCA). The dynamic nature of the supply chain’s environment implies uncertainty in the upstream and downstream sides. Drawing from the literature, manufacturers need to mitigate any uncertainty in their supply chains, which can consist of supply, demand, and technology uncertainties. However, the previous literature neglected any discussion of supply chain uncertainty in the context of the agro-industry. Hence, to answer this gap, this study aimed to investigate the supply chain’s environmental uncertainty factors in the agro-industry’s sectors. Accordingly, this study obtained 30 respondents from the agro-industry in Indonesia. This study reported that the agro-industry in Indonesia has uncertainties about supply, demand and technology. It is faced with the inability of suppliers to consistently deliver raw materials, in terms of their quantity and quality. Meanwhile, demand uncertainty is caused by the fluctuations in customers’ demands and the industry’s low forecasting accuracy. Moreover, the rapidly changing technology has implications for uncertainty in services and product standards; making it difficult for manufacturers to anticipate the changes. This uncertainty in the supply chain’s environment needs to be controlled by the agro-industry through supply chain integration

Job Stress and Burnout among Social Workers in the VUCA World of COVID-19 Pandemic

This paper aimed to explore the changes posed by the new COVID-19 pandemic to the field of social work and its impact on social workers in terms of job stress and burnout in Romania. Two conceptual models were used to frame the discussion: the theoretical framework of VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity) to discuss the challenges that the unprecedented context of the COVID-19 pandemic has created for social workers; and the Job Demands and Resources model (JD-R) to understand job demands perceived as stressors and burnout. Based on convergent mixed methods, the study sample consisted of 83 social workers employed in statutory and private social services in Romania, from different areas of intervention. Results showed that social workers perceived a high level of job stress related to work during the pandemic, which was associated with higher levels of burnout in the areas of personal burnout (average score 55.9) and work-related burnout (average score 52.5). Client-related burnout was lower (average score 38.4), indicating that stress was generated mainly by organisational factors and work-related factors (workload, aligning to new legislative rules and decisions, inconsistency, instability, ambiguity of managerial decisions, and lack of clarity of working procedures) and less by client-related stressors (lack of direct contact with clients, risk of contamination, managing beneficiaries’ fears, and difficulties related to technology). High job demands and limited job resources (managerial and supervisory support, financial resources, and recognition and reward) led to a high to very high level of work-related burnout for 15.7% and an upper-medium level for 44.2% of respondents. A group of 27.7% reported lower to medium levels of work-related burnout, while 14.5% had very low levels, managing to handle stress factors in a healthy manner. Study results pointed to the importance of organisational support and the development of a self-care plan that help to protect against job stress and burnout. Recommendations were made, putting forward the voice of fieldworkers and managers fostering initiatives and the application of sustainability-based measures and activities designed to deal with the challenges of the VUCA environment.

The National Security Strategy in the Current Environment: from DIME to a DIME-T Approach

AbstractThe contemporary security environment is characterized by Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity (VUCA), the use of hybrid warfare and grey zone conflicts, generating the need to adapt the national security strategies to the changes demands of the environment. In this context, the instruments of national power (diplomatic, information, economic, military) should be used in an integrated manner, in order to provide a more comprehensive approach to national security. The technology has become an integral part of the life of the society, and as such it should be taken into consideration as an instrument of power and highlighted as a major component of a national security strategy. The paper proposes a DIME-T approach to national instruments of power, by analysing the complex implications of technology on all the areas of security.

Investment Perspectives in Human Resources Management and Its Contribution on Organizational Performance and Competitive Advantages

Abstract
 The dynamics of business environment signed by the volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity (VUCA) is urging organizations to rethink and redefine their business strategies and the source of their performance and competitive advantage. Human resources (human capital) hold the most important role in achieving organizational goals through the alignment of human capital investment and the organizational strategy. This article investigates on how the organization manage and align the investment in human resources (human capital) with the strategy of the organization and does investment in human capital have impact to the organizational performance and contribute to the creating value and competitive advantages of the organization. Based on the literature reviews and previous researches, we found that the alignment of investment in human resource (human capital) and organizational strategy is mediated by strategic performance management system namely Balanced Scorecard. The investment in human resources (human capital) has positive impact on organizational performance. Finally, The investment in human resources (human capital) has positive contribution to value creation and competitive advantages of the organizations.

Employment and Labour Market Impact of COVID-19 Crisis - Part 1 – Analysis in Poland

Abstract The world is changing really fast. This speed is caused by urbanization, technological development and the increasing demand for energy. Such changes have a direct impact on enterprises which function in the world of VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity) with numerous surprises in the form of “black swans”, i.e. rare and unpredictable events. The modern history has not seen such a lockdown as the one caused by the coronavirus. Hairdressers, cosmeticians, restaurants, transportation and tourism are particularly affected by the negative effects of the pandemic. But while some lose, others profit: growth can be observed in the areas of e-commerce, courier shipping and parcel lockers. The article analyzes the labor market in covid times. The image of enterprises and employees of the future was discussed. The paper is an introduction part of an international research conducted as part of cooperation between Universities from Poland, Pakistan, Iraq and the Philippines.

A study on digital learning, learning and development interventions and learnability of working executives in corporates

PurposeThe digital learning and learning & development (L&D) at workplaces in corporates is having a significant challenge, where only about 1% of the week is spent on L&D by the employees. There are an array of recent L&D reports–by Deloitte, 2019; Skillsoft's, 2019; LinkedIn Workplace Learning Report-2019; UK L&D Report-2019; FICCI-NASSCOM and EY “Future of Jobs” Report-2017–which have clearly been indicating that the digital learning is fast-emerging as one of the realistic option. The employees invest their time and energy for skilling/up-skilling/re-skilling for remaining relevant to the emerging business context under volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity (VUCA) world and also coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is being researched.Design/methodology/approachThe L&D interventions have primary objective of enhancing skills, competencies and career growth among employees, and the learning engagement styles/ systems are undergoing dramatic paradigm shifts. There is dire need to understand the impact of sweeping changes with Industry 4.0 and HR 4.0; however, there are only a few industry-centric studies that are available to assess the impact of technology on L&D with digital learning. Hence, there is a need to study the factors influencing various segments of workforce in large corporates, where the learning engagement with digital learning is fast-emerging among corporates.FindingsGiven the digital learning / L&D context in corporates, this research paper has attempted to review and analyse the opportunities, challenges and emerging trends with respect to leveraging technology and innovation to enhance L&D to deliver the business goals, under the 70:20:10 framework, with case analysis of ten different corporates (across different industry sectors) viz., Genpact, Nexval, Airbus, Siemens, AstraZeneca Pharma, HPCL, HGS (BPM), HP, Flipkart and IBM. The A-to-Z of Talent Management and Leadership Development (adopted version from India Leadership Academy, Publicis Sapient, 2019) best practices are analysed, summarized and presented to indicate emerging trends in Industry 4.0 era.Research limitations/implicationsThis study has been carried out for just ten major corporates/ multinational companies (MNCs) operating in various sectors. The sample size used is relatively less; therefore, the study can be carried out with a larger sample size and deeper data analysis and insights across countries/continents. At present, this can be considered as a base-research for undertaking deep-dive analysis. The sectoral analysis and cross-industry perspectives require consideration in next studies. To address the sector-specific issues, the research can be undertaken for either a particular sector such as manufacturing, automotive, IT/ITeS, telecom, aviation, agri-tech and pharmaceutical, knowledge-based industries, etc. or comparative analysis across few related sectors required.Practical implicationsThis research has provided/shall provide a basis to understand the various factors that influence the L&D and digital learning ecosystem in large corporates. It is expected to provide a practical and also strategic perspective towards effective usage of digital learning systems (both in-house and open systems) for enhancing the effectiveness of L&D in the context of VUCA World and HR 4.0 around us. The proposed hypothesis of “The Digital Learning is the “Future of HR”, especially for the L&D in large Corporate Academies (in the context of Industry 4.0)” stands justified.Social implicationsThe clear shift from training culture to “Learning Culture” is possible and feasible with strategically planned digital learning/ L&D interventions, which benefits the corporates, employees, customers and the society at large.Originality/valueTo the best of our knowledge, probably this is one of the first paper in the analysing the industry best L&D/Digital learning practices from an practitioners and academic perspective, as we live in the era of bit-sized and byte sized micro-learning. This study contributes to the academics by providing insights on possible digital learning policies that can be practiced by large corporates, where the “ownership of learning and career growth” is transferred onto the employees. The result of this study complements the evolving digital learning trends, in line with science of self-driven and lifelong learning principle.

CT and the Readiness of the Education in Jakarta to Face VUCA Due to the Covid-19 Pandemic.

Jakarta as the capital city is viewed as the barometer of every city in Indonesia. The city preparedness to face VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity) caused by Covid-19 pandemic is also in the national spotlight. One of the main solutions to face VUCA is Computational Thinking (CT). CT provides the ability to approach VUCA characteristics by systematically ingraining abstraction, algorithmic thinking, decomposition, and pattern recognition in mind. For this reason, Jakarta plans to disseminate this concept to students as early as possible, namely by embedding CT to every subject in primary and secondary schools. The activity began with online CT socialization, which was attended by 1,761 teachers, of which 238 via Google Meet and 1,523 via live streaming. In this activity we also distributed questionnaires to 258 elementary and junior high school teachers spread across 41 sub-districts of 44 sub-districts in Jakarta. The result is that 93.8% of teachers in Jakarta do not understand CT, excitingly 69.4% of teachers wish to teach CT in the subjects they can afford even though it is not compulsory, but if it is obligatory then all teachers will implement it.

Assessing dynamic capabilities of incumbents in the face of unprecedented industry transformation: the case of the automotive industry

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to develop a holistic approach to the assessment of dynamic capabilities (DCs). Holistic refers to incorporating all DCs of an organisation relevant for determining and executing the firm's strategy.Design/methodology/approachA two-phase study was conducted. First, secondary sources, such as media, industry and annual reports, are being used to initially assess CASE (connected, autonomous, shared and electric) and implications for incumbent car manufacturers in a structured way. Second, semi-structured interviews with automotive managers and further automotive stakeholders offer in-depth insights into CASE, as well as incumbents' strategies and the underlying rationale.FindingsThe proposed framework for assessing DCs offers a holistic approach and provides new angles of analysis. First, the time dimension is considered using scenarios since timing is vital in strategy and implementation. Second, capabilities are broken down into technological and non-technological, sharpening strategic decision-making of automakers. Third, the analysis considers external VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity) as they interplay with internal DCs.Research limitations/implicationsFurther testing of the proposed DC assessment approach offers a promising opportunity for future research. This paper focuses on the automotive industry, but it is worth investigating the extent to which the approach can be used in other dynamic industries, such as finance or retail.Originality/valueThe approach proposed highlights the importance and nuances of considering external perspectives in the DC assessment and the relevance of non-technological capabilities in the automotive industry. Thereby, it contributes to the literature on capability assessments and the operationalisability of the DC lens.

Challenges in early phase of product family development processes

The early phase of product development is often described as particularly challenging. Especially in the case of innovations, various challenges that can be attributed to volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity (VUCA) are said to come into play. Far more often than breakthrough innovation projects, however, product development projects found in industrial practice incorporate incremental innovations on component or module level. This is especially the case for product developments within product families, where often a large part of modules and technical solutions are used in several products simultaneously and over several development cycles. The aim of this paper is to identify specific challenges especially in the context of the early phase of product families, to assign them to the four dimensions of VUCA and to put them in the context of different boundary conditions, such as novelty degree. For this purpose, a two-part approach was chosen: first, empirical studies concerning the early phase of the product (family) development are summarized, second, three explorative and semi-structured interviews were conducted. As a result, it can be concluded that challenges related to complexity, such as difficult decision-making in balancing internal and external goals or due to interdisciplinary cooperation and coordination between the partners involved, ambiguity, such as due to different interpretations of the same information, as well as uncertainty, such as not knowing about future customer requests, are of particular importance. Challenges related to volatility, on the other hand, were mentioned only sporadically. Furthermore, closeness to the customer, for example, seems to be a boundary condition that favours or prevents the occurrence of certain challenges in the early phase of product family development.

Measuring business process innovations among tourism enterprises in the Czech Republic: a PLS-GLM approach

The Czech Republic has experienced momentous tourism expansion in recent years. Nevertheless, there is a lack of empirical investigation about this development. Innovations are an essential factor for the sustainable development of the tourism industry in the Czech Republic. The paper expounds on the effect of technical and process innovations among the tour and travel companies in the Czech Republic. The study surveyed 96 travel and tour operators aged 18-40 working in the various small, medium, and large travel agencies to determine their perceptions towards innovation in their respective travel businesses. A two-phased statistical process that combined PLS-SEM and GLM examined the responses of the individuals. It revealed that technical innovation had a robust and positive relationship with corporate profitability. Process innovation remains a grey area for Czech travel businesses. The study builds upon the Process Innovations in Colombia's Tourist Enterprises or PICTE framework to induct critical insights for travel agencies and tour operators to provide these businesses a way forward and make them more competitive and sustainable. It has been observed that tourism businesses that were not early adopters of disruptive technologies became vulnerable to market mechanisms. Therefore, the relevance of this study is further accentuated. COVID-19 has accelerated the climate of VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity) among Czech tour and travel operators, many of whom winded up or downsized operations. Many of these firms were in the medium and small segments. In light of the present situation, it becomes imperative that travel service providers invest in modern technologies and ensure the same diffusion among the staff. The paper gave the strategies towards human resource mapping and digital transformations for the best interest of the tourism industry. Future studies are recommended to focus on longitudinal measures towards understanding innovation propensities among small and medium-sized businesses. Mixed method studies are encouraged to comprehend the corporate dynamics of change management.

Collaborative Operations of Hospitality Industry during COVID-19 Lockdown and Strategic Approach with reference to Bangalore, India

The pandemic attack of Coronavirus had lurch the entire world to massive crisis of human illness, fatality, insecurity in family, business instability, and downfall of the economy resulting into huge number of job loss and pay cuts. The inadvertent consequences of COVID-19 started showing its effect since end of December 2019 and were observed in India predominantly by the end of February 2020 onwards. The focus of the study was to find the COVID-19 impact on hospitality industry in India before and during the first lockdown and its collaborative operations with special reference to Bangalore. The methodology incorporated in the study was the descriptive approach through the qualitative method and the purposive sampling technique was utilised. It is evident that the hospitality industries is the hardest hit, as the tourists’ travel and stay plunged to an average of -60% change of occupancy data compared to the same period in 2019 in India according to the STR reports. Due to this VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity) environment the hospitality industry has initiated some of the collaborative operations to render their services to the society and generously assisting the government bodies. It is observed that the strategic collaborative frameworks can reduce the industry jolts during such disasters.

Post-Pandemic Development: Sluggish or Rapid Recovery?

Post-Pandemic Development: Sluggish or Rapid Recovery?

MANAGEMENT OVERVIEW: LEADERSHIP IN CHANGE

This paper aims to study how the leadership of an organization manages the process of change in its environment. The challenges faced are various changes both from within and outside the organization in a very fast, chaotic and turbulent, which has become the 'new' normal. The method of writing this paper is done through a study of various literatures. The COVID19 pandemic has various impacts on people's lives, especially business organizations or companies, which has caused many changes in the world of VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity). Every organization must be able to identify it because every problem requires a fast and precise response. Each of these VUCA components presents challenges that need to be faced with Vision, Understanding, Clarity, and Agility. Keywords: Management, Leadership, Change, VUCA

Capability development in startup and mature enterprises

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to review the literature of enterprise capability, which comprises the three dimensions of operational, dynamic and improvisational capabilities, and analyze their differences. Through this review, the authors aim to enrich the enterprise capability theory and provide some directions for entrepreneurial practice in the face of volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity (VUCA).Design/methodology/approachThe study is based on a systematic review of the literature on enterprise capability as it relates to entrepreneurial firms, following the content analysis approach as described in Gaur and Kumar (2018).FindingsThe authors’ conceptual model compares the capability levels of startups and mature enterprises and presents a model for the dynamic evolution of the capability levels of enterprises. In doing so, this study enriches the enterprise capability theory and lays the theoretical foundation for the follow-up empirical research. The authors also provide guidance for entrepreneurial practice in the face of VUCA.Originality/valueIn recent years, scholars have begun to explore the issue of enterprise capability in the field of entrepreneurship. However, because of different research perspectives, one lacks clarity on the concept and dimensions of enterprise capability. The capability theory is relatively weak in guiding the practice of enterprises; enterprises lack effective response strategies in a changing environment, and the failure rate of startups is high. This study aims to develop a deeper understanding of enterprise capability.

COMMUNICATION IN MASS COOPERATION AS A VUCA FACTOR IN MODERN SOCIO-ECONOMIC SHOCKS

Analyzing the prerequisites for the VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity) phenomenon – characteristic of the modern world, which is more variable and multilateral than before – the text discusses VUCA with regard to open cooperation in the context of socio-economic interactions. Instability, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity of the world are caused mainly by the expansion of the model of open (mass) cooperation between the participants of public communication. The system of global communication has transformed from a predominantly one-vector model with a targeted audience to an interactive mass system in which not only the specialized subjects of the communication process but also all participants reflect all the components of the VUCA concept. This combination of communicators has characteristics similar to a crowd formed under the influence of external provocation. The consequences of the impact of VUCA communication factors are spontaneous social and economic upheavals that have emerged with the rapid development of new technologies and communication models (North Africa and the Middle East in 2010–2011, Ukraine in 2013–2014). Over time, this trend has intensified, and the consequences are now manifested on a global scale (as in the case of socio-economic consequences of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic). VUCA communication rests on the principles of mass cooperation, thus appropriate approaches and methods should be based on management in the VUCA world.

The theory and empirics of the structural reshaping of globalization

Petricevich and Teece’s (2019) article on the reshaping of globalization raises profound issues on the theory and empirics of international business. The fracture in the world economy between the USA and China is the result of Government policy, but its relationship to rising VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity) elements in globalization is more complex than simple policy changes. This paper suggests that a reappraisal of theory is required, not least because of the eruption of Covid-19, but that internalization theory is the best source of theoretical restructuring in the face of the new empirical realities facing the global economy.

Valuation Analysis of Initial Public Offer (IPO): The Case of India

In today’s fast moving and dynamic world, short-term investors face difficulty while choosing which avenue to invest in. Investors view investment in securities as a highly risky avenue due to VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity) pertaining to future movement of security prices. The study has been carried out to analyse the post-Initial Public Officer (IPO) performance of various companies that have gone public in 2017 using event study methodology. The study also tries to determine whether these IPOs were underpriced in short run and identifies various factors that influence the movement of such IPOs in the short run. The study found that about 70 per cent of the selected IPOs are underpriced in short run and the movement of these IPOs in short run is not influenced by the age of the company, issue size of the IPO, ownership sector and the promoter’s holdings after the issue.

Without Systems and Complexity Thinking There Is no Progress - or Why Bureaucracy Needs to Become Curious Comment on "What Can Policy-Makers Get out of Systems Thinking? Policy Partners' Experiences of a Systems-Focused Research Collaboration in Preventive Health".

The bureaucracy’s goal is to maintain uniformity and control within discrete areas of activity and relies on hierarchical processes and procedural correctness as means to suppress autonomous decision making. That worldview, however, is unsuited for problem solving of real world VUCA (Volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity) problems. Solving wicked problems in the VUCA world requires curiosity, creativity and collaboration, and a willingness to deeply engage and an ability to painstakingly work through their seemingly contradictory and chaotic pathways. In addition, it necessitates leadership. Leaders require a deep – indeed academic – understanding of the nature of the problems and the veracity of various problem-solving approaches. Leadership after all means "[facilitating] the necessary adaptive work that needs to be done by the people connected to the problem." That are the people at the coalface who understand and have to manage the complexities relating to problems unique to their local environment for which of the shelf solutions never work. Systems and complexity thinking is more than a tool, it is – in a sense – a way of being, namely deeply interested in understanding the highly interconnected and interdependent nature of the issues affecting our life and work. Hence, system and complexity thinking is, contrary to what Haynes and colleagues state in their "summation for the public reader," neither "overwhelming and hard [nor difficult] to use practically ." Such a view is as much misleading as selfdefeating.

Vuca in Engineering Education: Enhancement of Faculty Competency For Capacity Building

Abstract The world is changing at a very fast pace- in terms of culture, education, complexities of societal needs and demands. The educator with his past learning cannot match the expectations of the millennials. The VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity) in Engineering Education has to be observed, studied, analysed and reformed and that too very soon. Higher Education is unable to evolve in pace with the technological developments, global economics, and digital transformations. Global networking has shrunk the world and established inter-connectedness breaking barriers of language, geography, societal cultures, and perceptions. However such rapid changes have not impacted Engineering Education much. Academicians prophecies about attributes that an engineer should possess are turning volatile. This uncertainty leads to unemployed engineers. The chaos has emerged with various levels of complexities. With under-skilled employees, the future of the Engineers and Engineering Education looks bleak and ambiguous. Jack of all trades will have more employable possibilities than the Master of a particular skill. The faculty who teach the 21st Century Learner therefore must make a conscious, intentional choice to enhance his competencies to prepare students for the future. This study emphasizes the need to reawaken our educational policies and teaching-learning pedagogy. Certain learning strategies like flipped learning, project-based learning, problem-based learning will adapt the andragogic method. The teaching trends will be metamorphosed and establish good networking for inter/transdisciplinary research. Case studies and scenario building will churn in opportunities for the students to communicate, collaborate, critically think, and be creative. The empowered faculty will have his multi-skilled students placed well, the student will be industry ready and the industry will have the employee come along with his 21st Century skill set. The beneficiaries: the school, university, teacher now a facilitator, the student and the community at large will build not only a sustainable future but a thriving one too!