Violent Conflict Research Articles

Blood gambit: how autocratizing populists fuel ethnic conflict to reverse election setbacks – evidence from Turkey and Israel

ABSTRACT Through a comparative study of Turkey and Israel, this article highlights a specific strategy that autocratizing populist incumbents in ethnically divided societies utilize when they face election setbacks. A “blood gambit” entails fomenting violent conflict to keep the opposition divided along identitarian cleavages, while creating a rally-around-the-flag effect to help the incumbent win a renewed election. After failing to secure a parliamentary majority in June 2015, Erdoğan ended the Kurdish peace process and engineered repeat elections amidst heightened nationalist fervour and renewed conflict with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). These elections gave the Justice and Development Party (AKP) a majority and marked the beginning of its alliance with the ultranationalists. Following Israel’s March 2021 elections, Netanyahu increased state repression of Palestinians, which triggered interethnic violence and renewed confrontation with Hamas. The violence threw a wrench into coalition-building efforts between ideologically and ethnically diverse opposition parties. The comparison of Israel and Turkey as two countries with different majority religions, ethnic compositions and socioeconomic levels shows that “blood gambit” is not a parochial strategy. Our analysis also demonstrates that the outcomes of these strategies are shaped by differing institutional and political contexts, in particular, the extent of executive aggrandizement and the level of party fragmentation.

Causal discovery reveals complex patterns of drought-induced displacement

The increasing frequency and severity of droughts present a significant risk to vulnerable regions of the globe, potentially leading to substantial human displacement in extreme situations. Drought-induced displacement is a complex and multifaceted issue that can perpetuate cycles of poverty, exacerbate food and water scarcity, and reinforce socio-economic inequalities. However, our understanding of human mobility in drought scenarios is currently limited, inhibiting accurate predictions and effective policy responses. Drought-induced displacement is driven by numerous factors and identifying its key drivers, causal-effect lags, and consequential effects is often challenging, typically relying on mechanistic models and qualitative assumptions. This paper presents a novel, data-driven methodology, grounded in causal discovery, to retrieve the drivers of drought-induced displacement within Somalia from 2016 to 2023. Our model exposes the intertwined vulnerabilities and the leading times that connect drought impacts, water and food security systems along with episodes of violent conflict, emphasizing that causal mechanisms change across districts. These findings pave the way for the development of algorithms with the ability to learn from human mobility data, enhancing anticipatory action, policy formulation, and humanitarian aid.

From Green to Red: New Energy Projects and Violent Conflict in Fragile Settings

From Green to Red: New Energy Projects and Violent Conflict in Fragile Settings

Coping with Indeterminate Dangers in a Violent Conflict Zone: A Study of Libyan Women Entrepreneurs

Coping with Indeterminate Dangers in a Violent Conflict Zone: A Study of Libyan Women Entrepreneurs

How climate change and modern slavery interact in the supply chain: A conceptual model development through a systemic review

AbstractDespite growing recognition of the interconnectedness between climate change and modern slavery within supply chains, these issues are often studied in isolation, leading to a fragmented understanding of their relationship. This research aims to bridge this gap by investigating the key factors in supply chains that influence both climate change and modern slavery and how interactions among supply chain stakeholders impact the relationship between them. Utilising the PRISMA literature review method, we systematically reviewed 56 articles to identify the underlying mechanisms and stakeholders' interactions that influence the dynamics between climate change and modern slavery in supply chains. Our findings culminate in a conceptual model that delineates 11 factors bi‐directionally impacting both climate change and modern slavery. These factors include social (migration, violent conflict, and war as well as tradition and culture), environmental (deforestation, soil erosion, disruption of protected area, extreme weather, and resource) and economic (liabilities, employment, education, and pandemic). Furthermore, it highlights how stakeholder interactions at the government, NGO, supplier, focal firm, worker, and consumer levels impact this relationship. Finally, the model underscores the potential of technology adoption, sustainable development strategies, and stakeholder engagement and collaboration as levers to positively influence the relationship between climate change and modern slavery in supply chains.

Ethnic diversity and electoral democracy in Sudan before and after the Arab spring

ABSTRACT This study investigates the impact of ethnic diversity on electoral democracy in Sudan, a nation grappling with ethnic, sectarian, and regional identity politics. Using a mixed-method approach, the study employs Time Series analysis from 1990 to 2019, followed by theoretical analysis to explore the relationship between ethnic diversity and electoral democracy. The framework of this study draws from relevant studies on this nexus, incorporating factors such as racial/ethnic voting motivations, corruption, institutional dynamics, conflict, and individual income. The study bridges a gap in the existing literature by providing insights into the mechanisms through which ethnic identities shape democratisation processes in the African region. The findings reveal an influence of ethnic diversity on electoral democracy, as evidenced by factors such as violent conflicts, political institutions, and economic inequality. Additionally, the study delves into contemporary implications of ethnic dynamics on democratic processes, particularly examining the military confrontations between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) since April 2023. The practical implications of this study lie in developing effective strategies to mitigate the political repercussions of ethnicity, thereby fostering a peaceful democratic transition. Therefore, the findings may not be readily applicable to other regions or nations with distinct historical, cultural, or geopolitical contexts that might influence the interplay between ethnic diversity and electoral democracy differently.

Institutional Coadaptation Work: How Refugees and Provisioning Institutions Coadapt in Pursuit of Consumption Adequacy

Prior research on refugee migration documents the acculturation processes through which refugees adapt to the cultural context of the host society. In this research, the authors complement the insights from prior research by uncovering how the host society's provisioning institutions coadapt in response to the consumption adequacy needs of refugees. To understand these coadaptation practices, they gather qualitative data from low-income Sri Lankan Tamil refugees who were repatriated to India in the face of violent ethnic conflict. The data aid in theorizing the concept of institutional coadaptation work, defined as the dyadic coadaptation of refugees and a host society's provisioning institutions, to serve the consumption adequacy needs of refugees. This coadaptation perspective envisages change as a collective process in which agency is distributed among multiple actors in society. More specifically, this research provides focused policy recommendations explaining how the government, market, and community can work collaboratively to address consumption adequacy needs of refugees.

How to think about the instrumental politics of mass rape: a critical appraisal of feminist approaches

ABSTRACT Mass rape and other forms of sexual violence in ethnic conflict, as their incidence in Bosnian and Kosovo wars in former Yugoslavia showed in the 1990s, cannot be relativised along some strategy of either ‘victimization’ or ‘everyone is guilty’ within an antiquated framework of ethnic-religious hatred. In this case as in others, the local notions of honour and blood cannot be taken uncritically to be binding cultural traits that ought to determine social behaviour. Incidentally, they cannot either account for a structured ideology of ‘men’s war against women’, or for a postmodern feminist ideology of gender and the moral panic of a ‘patriarchal dream-order’ restored. In this article, I offer a critical appraisal of the stereotyped and relativising accounts of feminist and human rights scholars, a critique very much needed for an anthropological approach attentive to cultural ideology and activism. To understand the effectiveness of mass rape in a military strategy of ethnic cleansing, I suggest local cultural concepts and moral relativist ideas are not culturally given, but instrumental resources deliberately mobilised.

A sound methodology: Measuring experiences of violent conflict through audio self-interviews

This paper investigates the impact of different survey administration methods on the disclosure of sensitive or traumatic experiences. Respondents of a pilot study in Ethiopia were randomly assigned to answer questions either using audio computer-assisted self-interviewing (ACASI) or as part of a face-to-face (FtF) enumerator-based interview. Results indicate that ACASI led to higher disclosure rates of conflict-related experiences, particularly for the most sensitive questions, i.e., when either the respondent or a close friend or family member was the victim, or when the trauma suffered was more severe. ACASI offers a viable solution to measure traumatic conflict-related experience exposure in low-literacy settings, overcoming the underestimation problem commonly observed when using standard survey methods.

No Peace without Justice, Just War as a Moral Frame of Reference

This article discusses the question of the possibility of moral and ethical grounds for the justification of the use of violence in modern times international conflicts. And specifically, how does the tradition of just war fit into this discussion? For this, a closer look at what just war thinking means is necessary. In this respect we would describe just war thinking more as a just war tradition than a just war theory, as there is no encompassing theory on just war. In history you see a development from the justification of war to a more problematic relation to the possibility of the use of military force. This can be illustrated by the more recent shift from just war thinking towards just peace thinking. This leads to the question: what kind of peace? We argue in this article that peace and justice are connected, and that you cannot have true peace without true justice.

Public Health Word of the Year 2023 — Conflict

ABSTRACTThe term “conflict” resonated throughout 2023, echoing prolonged civil wars and heightened global tensions in geopolitical disputes, escalating ongoing rifts among global communities, and exacerbating the humanitarian crisis. This article explores the complex relationship between conflicts and public health, providing a thorough analysis of their dynamics and current prevalence. It aims to illuminate the diverse challenges posed and delineate a holistic path forward to mitigate violent conflicts and ameliorate health disparities, particularly among affected low‐ and middle‐income countries, by advancing an equitable and resilient healthcare system. The expanded perspective of “conflict” reveals far‐reaching consequences that extend beyond borders, significantly straining public health capacity. The world is in dire need of reinvigorating healthcare systems and de‐escalating such violent conflicts due to the relentless exhaustion of resources and the increasing demand for medical emergencies that current responses inadequately address. The damage to vital healthcare facilities in conflict zones severely hampers the provision of necessary and timely medical care, affecting a wide range of health services, including treatment for chronic illnesses, maternal and child care, and mental health support. Additionally, the continuous displacement of people in these areas increases their susceptibility to infectious diseases, raising the possibility of new outbreaks and worsening long‐standing public health challenges. Therefore, prioritizing public health in diplomatic efforts is essential for resolving conflicts and aiding recovery, through building a strong public health strategic approach for a more stable and peaceful global community.

Peace as Social Cohesion, Equity, and Democracy: Local Peacebuilders’ Conceptualizations of Peace

Peace is something that all societies value and desire, but very few can achieve and sustain. This paper offers an analysis of how local peacebuilders working in contexts affected by violent conflict and in postconflict areas conceptualize peace. Peacebuilders voices were collected through an open-ended survey, consultations on a digital platform called Padlet, and storytelling webinars facilitated by an Australian Indigenous storyteller. In these voices, we find a focus on achieving negative peace and deligitimizing all kinds of violence as well as a strong emphasis on positive peace that includes social cohesion; equity and inclusion; and democracy, human rights, and freedoms.

The effect of war exposure on children; an exploration of conflict and post-conflict gendered experiences

ABSTRACT Armed conflict has tragically become commonplace in the lives of many children. Children do not only witness conflict violence and are subjected to it, but are also sometimes forced to perpetrate violence themselves. Recently, scholars from different fields have examined these experiences. However, few scholars have considered the experiences of girls or have compared these experiences to those of boys. This is surprising given the increased focus of the international community on the protection of girls. This exploratory study is an attempt to overcome this by examining the experiences of boys and girls during conflict and whether these gendered experiences have influenced social relationships in the aftermath of war. Empirically, we rely on 315 structured interviews with Congolese boys and girls. Some of these children were actively involved in armed groups in the Eastern provinces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Our descriptive analysis shows remarkable differences between boys and girls. This work has important consequences for the study of the effect of conflict on children, the role of girls during and after conflict, and the international policy community.

Seeking peace and justice through harmony: Music and peacemaking

AbstractPeacemaking encompasses both positive efforts toward achieving a more just society and negative efforts to prevent or end violent conflicts and warfare. Popular music has often accompanied American peace and antiwar movements by arousing public concern for social justice, sustaining the hopes of activists, and challenging decision makers. This essay examines how musicians have made notable contributions to peace activism by addressing a diverse set of issues in American history.

Xerox soldiers, YouTube commanders and Twitter brigades: information warfare in eastern Congo

Abstract Researching contemporary warfare requires attention to digital connectivity in contexts of crisis and conflict. This article traces the evolution of information warfare with a focus on the digitization, democratization and polarization of conflict-related communication and discourse. We argue that information warfare amplifies with the advent of social media—multiplying the scales for the conduct of hostilities, reducing distance and duration, and democratizing participation—notably in Africa, a continent often considered a trailblazer of digital innovation. Orthodox scholarship, however, tends to focus disproportionately on cases relevant to the global North. Examples include the global ‘war on terror’ or the Russian war against Ukraine. Investigating protracted violent conflict in the global South instead, our analysis fills an important gap in this literature. Through the prism of the African Great Lakes region, the world's deadliest contemporary war zone, we leverage a counterintuitive perspective of a conflict considered backwards in mainstream analysis. Drawing from long-term field research and digital ethnography, we propose the notion of ‘reciprocal warscapes’, where not only do battlefield events influence the underlying politics of conflict but where, reciprocally, digital warfare increasingly shapes the conduct of war itself.

Autobiographical accounts of military hand-to-hand combat

The current study examines autobiographical accounts of soldiers to enhance our understanding of the demands faced, and the subsequent emotional responses experienced, during the military combat task of hand-to-hand fighting. Nine autobiographies with descriptions of military hand-to-hand fighting were sampled, and three themes were developed: unexpected, life-threatening, and killing. The findings extend the current literature by illustrating the severe psychological strain soldiers face from hand-to-hand fighting situations, such as having to apply lethal actions against an opponent, and suggesting how in situ cognitive performance degradations can result from the encountered fear-based affective components. Based on this study, recommendations are offered to enhance representativeness in training for military hand-to-hand fighting. The autobiographical analysis in this study presents an approach for enhancing existing and future interview-based research that explores affective components of martial arts that prepare for violent conflicts.

Arms Proliferation and Violent Conflicts in Nigeria: A Study of Ogun State

Arms Proliferation and Violent Conflicts in Nigeria: A Study of Ogun State

Towards a resentment-driven model of intergroup conflict: using the incel phenomenon to conceptualize resentment as the driving factor for ideologically motivated extremism

ABSTRACT This article outlines a new model for the initiation of intergroup conflict, in which resentment is theorized as the motivating factor. This model – drawing from existing theories in social psychology and international relations – describes the process by which members of a group become willing to engage in violent conflict with a target group, beginning with feelings of resentment arising from a perceived experience of victimization. The model is then applied to the involuntary celibate (incel) ideology and the trend of mass shootings perpetrated by incels, with two case studies.

Non-state armed groups as food system actors in Somalia and Haiti

ABSTRACT Violent conflict is the primary driver of food crises worldwide. However, our understanding of the specific role non-state armed groups (NSAGs) play in food systems remains incomplete. There is limited evidence on how NSAGs shape food systems, including through forms of (non-)violent regulation; where NSAGs intersect with different stages of the food value chain, beyond production alone; and comparative analysis of NSAGs across diverse contexts, security environments and food systems. This study addresses these gaps through comparative analysis of NSAG food system engagement in Haiti and South-Central Somalia, drawing on primary qualitative data. We find that i) NSAGs are active at every stage of the food system; ii) this activity is often systematic in nature; and iii) NSAG engagement shares several commonalities across Haiti and Somalia, despite very different contexts. In identifying this, we make several contributions, including advancing research on conflict and hunger to highlight precise mechanisms by which violent actors disrupt and shape food systems; and contributing to research on rebel and criminal governance by highlighting a heretofore neglected domain of armed actor governance (food systems).

Of Yeasts and Humans

AbstractHumankind, the biological species Homo sapiens, lives today in a very different world from the one for which it was evolutionarily selected in the geological epoch Pleistocene (2.6 million to twelve thousand years BC). The Anthropocene, as the epoch we live now has been called, is characterized by increasing tension between human nature and technological civilization, and humans live in an atmosphere of uncertainty, insecurity, and threat. By “naturalizing” the human condition, cognitive biology offers the only painless alternative to the many scenarios that depict the extinction of Homo sapiens as a consequence of violent conflicts and unimaginable suffering.