Ethnic diversity and electoral democracy in Sudan before and after the Arab spring

Abstract

ABSTRACT This study investigates the impact of ethnic diversity on electoral democracy in Sudan, a nation grappling with ethnic, sectarian, and regional identity politics. Using a mixed-method approach, the study employs Time Series analysis from 1990 to 2019, followed by theoretical analysis to explore the relationship between ethnic diversity and electoral democracy. The framework of this study draws from relevant studies on this nexus, incorporating factors such as racial/ethnic voting motivations, corruption, institutional dynamics, conflict, and individual income. The study bridges a gap in the existing literature by providing insights into the mechanisms through which ethnic identities shape democratisation processes in the African region. The findings reveal an influence of ethnic diversity on electoral democracy, as evidenced by factors such as violent conflicts, political institutions, and economic inequality. Additionally, the study delves into contemporary implications of ethnic dynamics on democratic processes, particularly examining the military confrontations between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) since April 2023. The practical implications of this study lie in developing effective strategies to mitigate the political repercussions of ethnicity, thereby fostering a peaceful democratic transition. Therefore, the findings may not be readily applicable to other regions or nations with distinct historical, cultural, or geopolitical contexts that might influence the interplay between ethnic diversity and electoral democracy differently.