Electoral Victory Research Articles

Securitization, fear politics, and the formation of an opposition alliance in competitive authoritarian regimes

ABSTRACT This article examines how opposition parties with diverse ideologies can form alliances in competitive authoritarian regimes despite the securitization strategy used by authoritarian incumbents. Using Turkey as a case study, the article demonstrates that an authoritarian leader may associate terrorism with opposition parties and may disseminate this fear to manipulate moderate voters and prevent coalition formation between niche parties. By analysing public speeches of political actors in Turkey, the study argues that if opposition parties recognize the vulnerabilities of the regime and believe that forming an alliance would gain support from the masses and encourage cross-party voting, then the securitization strategy would not deter them from forming a pre-electoral alliance. However, the failure of the securitization strategy to prevent opposition parties from forming an alliance does not guarantee opposition victory in elections. The securitization strategy employed by the authoritarian regime can still be utilized to effectively empower the authoritarian leader, enabling them to win elections by capitalizing on fear and depicting the opposition alliance as a security threat and a potential source of instability if they were to come into power.

1981년 5월 10일, 미테랑의 대선 승리와 프랑스의 사회주의 정치

1981년 5월 10일, 미테랑의 대선 승리와 프랑스의 사회주의 정치

A warrant for violence? An analysis of Donald Trump's speech before the US Capitol attack.

On January 6th, 2021, Donald Trump's speech during a 'Save America' rally was followed by mass violence, with Trump's supporters storming the U.S. Capitol to prevent the certification of Joe Biden's victory in the presidential election. In its wake, there was a great deal of debate around whether the speech contained direct instructions for the subsequent violence. In this paper, we use a social identity perspective on leadership (and more specifically, on toxic leadership) to analyse the speech and see how its overall argument relates to violence. We show that Trump's argument rests on the populist distinction between the American people and elites. He moralises these groups as good and evil respectively and proposes that the very existence of America is under threat if the election result stands. On this basis he proposes that all true Americans are obligated to act in order prevent Biden's certification and to ensure that the good prevails over evil. While Trump does not explicitly say what such action entails, he also removes normative and moral impediments to extreme action. In this way, taken as a whole, Trump's speech enables rather than demands violence and ultimately it provides a warrant for the violence that ensued.

Windscreens as sites of competing Turkish nationalisms: Kemalists vs. Islamists

In Turkey, the dominant political ideology is nationalism, but there are different variants competing for influence. Kemalism, the philosophy that laid the foundations for modern Turkey, advocated for a top-down modernization and secularisation of society, but also crucially involved creating a modern western-style nation state. The decades of the 1920s and 1930s saw the establishment of Kemalism as the official state ideology. Until the late 1990s, Kemalism remained as the state ideology, despite being challenged by a wide range of political tendencies. The greatest and most serious threat has come from political Islam, which rejects key tenets of the Kemalist ideology, namely western modernization and secularism. Conflict between Kemalists and Islamists on the national level has simmered since the 1970s, but a defining moment occurred in 2002 with the electoral victory of the Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi, AKP). Over a period of 20 years in power, the AKP has eliminated much of the Kemalist improvements to Turkey's state institutions, society and culture. The result of the AKP’s Islamic nationalist policies has been increased political polarisation and friction in Turkish politics and society. This political polarisation led to an unusual practice in everyday politics; supporters on both sides manifest their respective ideologies via stickers with political messages displayed on the rear windscreens of cars as a challenge to the opposing ideology. Based on the findings of interviews conducted with owners of cars displaying these messages, this study aims to analyse the meaning of this practice in relation to everyday nationalism, and its implications for Turkish politics at large.

Age differences in affective forecasting accuracy.

Affective forecasts are people's predictions of their future feelings in response to future events. In this study, we examined whether younger and older adults differ in their affective forecasting accuracy. To do so, we recruited younger and older American voters and asked them to predict how they would feel following the 2020 U.S. presidential election. In the general feelings condition, participants predicted how they would feel, in general, following an election victory or loss. In the event-related feelings condition, participants predicted their future feelings specifically about an election victory and about an election loss. Later, these same participants reported their experienced feelings (either in general or about the election outcome). In the general feelings condition, age differences in affective forecasting accuracy varied as a function of whether participants' preferred candidate won or lost the election. Among election victors, there were age-related improvements in affective forecasting accuracy of negative feelings. In contrast, among election losers there were age-related declines in affective forecasting accuracy of both negative and positive feelings. A different pattern emerged for participants in the event-related feelings condition. These participants were highly accurate in their affective forecasts, and there were minimal age differences in forecasting accuracy. Together, these results show that age differences in affective forecasting accuracy depend upon both the type of future event, and the type of future feeling being predicted. When considered together, these results also suggest that the focusing illusion plays a key role in modulating age differences in affective forecasting accuracy. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

Italy: Political Developments and Data in 2022

AbstractThe year 2022 was (again) a year of intense political change in Italy. The President of the Republic was (re)elected in January, Prime Minister Mario Draghi resigned in July, and new elections were held in September, amidst energy and economic crises, growing inflation and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The electoral victory of the centre‐right coalition, and in particular the success of Brothers of Italy, not only marked the rise to power of a prominent European far‐right party but also led to the nomination of the first female Prime Minister of the Italian Republic. The fall of Draghi's government and the formation of the first Meloni Cabinet raised questions about Italy's relationship with EU institutions, NATO and the transatlantic partnership.

Peace Building in Bosnia and Herzegovina - Problems and Dilemmas

Soldiers and civilian victims of war in Bosnia and Herzegovina have been living in peace more than 25 years, unlike irresponsible political leaders for whom “war-mongering rhetorics” is the most important mechanism for achieving electoral victories. In addition to inciting “new wars”,”separatism” and “denial of war crimes” through hate speech, by spreading “false news” and “untruths” in public space through the media. Irresponsible policies “intimidating their people”, produce a society of fear and prevent building of lasting peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina through development of democracy and the rule of law. In addition, by acting in this way, with the help of corruption, irresponsible policies produce “legal anarchy” and “undermine the rule of law”. In this paper the authors intend to present some ways of endangering peace and the rule of law in Bosnia and Herzegovina. They argue that post-War peacebuilding in Bosnia and Herzegovina relies on a wide array of international actors with diverse interests and mandates which are not necessarily aligned with local realities or needs.

The Politics of Health Policy Agenda Setting in India: The Case of the PMJAY Program

ABSTRACT In 2018, India’s Prime Minister announced a new health insurance program, Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana (PMJAY), aiming to cover over 500 million people. This paper seeks to document and explain the emergence of PMJAY on India’s political and policy agendas. We analyze media, election manifestos, legislative debates, and health budgets to compare PMJAY’s presence on India’s policy agenda to previous health programs. We then apply Kingdon’s Multiple Streams Framework to explain the program’s emergence and adoption, validating our data and interpretations through consultations with Indian health policy experts. Comparing respective launch years, PMJAY was covered in national newspapers 37 to 212 times more than previous flagship health programs, although it was not more prominent in parliamentary debates or in the health budget. Events in the problem, politics, and policy streams converged to enable its prominence. Health policy elites who favored insurance as a policy to address out-of-pocket health expenditures gained influence after the 2014 election victory of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). PMJAY’s naming and branding, scale, timing, implementation style, and design aligned with both the BJP’s ideology and political strategy. PMJAY represents the increased prominence of health programs in Indian politics, although primarily on the political and media agenda, rather than on the budgetary and legislative agenda during this period. The political forces that facilitated its emergence also shaped its design in ways that are likely to affect the Indian health system’s ability to provide comprehensive financial protection in the future.

Turning Counterhegemony into Hegemony

Abstract This article attempts to show how government-supported women’s NGOs (GO-NGOs) in Turkey actively contribute to the construction of neoliberal, conservative, antigender discourses of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government. Since the second decade of the 2000s, Turkey has undergone rapid de-democratization as a result of AKP’s election victories, which have brought with them a major backlash against gender equality policies. Moreover, a new political discourse constructed by the government has replaced the concept of gender equality with gender justice and gender equity. Relying on seven semistructured in-depth interviews with members of GO-NGOs and a review of primary and secondary documents, this article contends that the civil society established under the so-called New Turkey situates it in the construction of antigender and antiwomen’s rights discourse.

ISLAMIC PARTIES AND THE VOTING BEHAVIOR OF CITY MUSLIMS IN WEST SUMATRA

The background of this research is that there are no parties based on Islamic values ​​that dominate the victory in the legislative elections in West Sumatra, especially in the three cities that will be the locations of this research. Where the cities are Padang City, Bukittinggi City, and Pariaman City. These three cities have a very dominant Muslim voting population, but in the implementation of legislative elections, not a single party based on Islamic values ​​was able to dominate the victory in the legislative elections. The Muslim community in this city is very synonymous with the policies of its government which are based on sharia, but their voting behavior in legislative general elections does not reflect behavior that supports parties that uphold Islamic teachings. This study uses the theory of voting behavior with a psychological school, to see how the characteristics of voters in this city's Muslim community use a voting behavior approach based on psychological aspects, with the independent variables Issues in the Campaign (X.1) Identification of parties (X.2) and Orientation towards candidates ( X.3) with the dependent variable, namely the voting behavior of urban Muslim communities in general elections. This research uses a quantitative approach with a survey research design, this type of research is explanatory research. Data was collected by distributing questionnaires, respondents were selected using the probability sampling method, namely, stratified random sampling and simple random sampling and using random numbers in determining the respondents. The analysis model for this research is a frequency table and hypothesis testing using Chi Square. The findings of the data in the field show that in measuring the influence between the voting behavior of urban Muslim communities on party identification (X) and voting behavior (Y), the results of this study found that there was a relationship between the identification of Muslim voters' parties on voting behavior of urban Muslim communities in general elections.

Defending election victory by attacking company revenues: The impact of elections on the international defense industry

This study examines the influence of upcoming general elections on the sales revenues of major defense companies. Based on the empirical findings, several broad conclusions can be drawn. First, as a result of election-induced procurement decisions, the total revenues of defense companies in major arms-producing countries increase when domestic elections are approaching to boost the performance of the economy. Second, elections in democratic foreign countries cause a fall in the revenues received by domestic defense firms as foreign governments are likely to shift their public expenditures away from defense imports and towards domestic contractors or to other public spending categories. In contrast, elections in autocratic foreign countries slightly improve the defense sales of arms producers as authoritarian rulers try to deter any political actions of challengers by signalling their military capabilities. Finally, governments of countries that are subject to serious security risks are more likely to increase their purchase of military-strategic items abroad when elections are upcoming for protection purposes.

The Impact of Erdoğan's Victory on Türkiye-India Bilateral Relations: An Analysis

The aim of this study is to analyse the possible consequences of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's 2023 electoral success in Turkey on the bilateral relations between Türkiye and India. Since 2003, Erdoğan has been an influential figure in Turkish politics, known for his assertive leadership style and nationalist policies. The outcomes of his recent electoral victory have sparked noteworthy curiosity regarding its implications on Turkey's foreign policy, particularly in the context of Türkiye-India bilateral relationship. The research methodology employed in this study is qualitative in nature, and it involves an extensive examination of scholarly articles, news, reports, and official statements from both nations. This paper analyses the fundamental elements of the bilateral relations between Türkiye and India, encompassing political, economic, and cultural aspects. Additionally, it evaluates the potential impact of Erdoğan's victory on each of these domains. The firstly, Erdoğan's victory can further strengthen his power in Turkey. So, it is possible that Erdoğan's views on Kashmir, Indian Muslims and Palestine may effect Turkey's foreign policy towards India. Secondly, trade and investment between Turkey and India has grown significantly for the last few years. However, Erdoğan's victory could lead to economic uncertainty in Turkey, which could affect bilateral trade and investment, economic experts said. Lastly, cultural and people-to-people contacts have strengthened Türkiye-India relations. However, Erdoğan's domestic policies promoting Turkish nationalism and conservative beliefs may alter Turkey's social and cultural dynamics. While Erdoğan's victory could transform Turkey-India relations, domestic and international variables will determine their fate. The study recommends that Indian policymakers closely monitor Turkey's foreign policy under Erdoğan and engage in active diplomacy to maintain constructive dialogue to ensure that potential differences do not undermine historical ties and mutual interests.

Mental health symptoms following the January 6th attack on the United States Capitol

On January 6, 2021, rioters stormed the US Capitol to overturn the Congressional certification of Joseph Biden as the 46th president of the United States. In previous work, the symbolic dis/empowerment framework, as a result of sociopolitical context, has influenced health outcomes in certain sub-populations. We examine whether the Capitol Riot corresponds with an increase in mental health symptoms and explore whether this relation differs by individual political party affiliation and/or state electoral college victory. We utilize the Understanding America Study, a nationally representative panel of adults, between March 10, 2020–July 11, 2021. Using fixed effects linear regression, we find a modest increase above expected levels in mental health symptoms immediately following the Capitol Riot. This result holds for Democrats overall, Democrats in Biden states, and when restricting analyses to only states that voted for Biden (or separately, for Trump). Democrats show the greatest increase of mental health symptoms following the Capital Riot, supporting the symbolic dis/empowerment framework as well as notions of political polarization and allegiance. Social and political events of national importance may adversely affect mental health of specific subpopulations.

An Exploration of the Reasons Why Right-Wing Populist Parties in Europe are Anti-Immigration: The Case of Italy

Populism has become a prevailing political phenomenon in Europe, as evidenced by the repeated electoral victories of right-wing populist parties, which have transitioned from the political periphery to the centre stage. These parties frequently espouse anti-immigration rhetoric, which poses significant obstacles to European integration and globalization while simultaneously fueling racism and xenophobia. Such sentiments may foster political polarization within Europe and destabilize the global political economy. Despite Italy's former status as a leading destination for migrants in Europe, it has recently implemented increasingly restrictive immigration policies and experienced notable electoral gains for right-wing populist parties. The xenophobic tenets of right-wing populism account for these developments, making it crucial to investigate the reasons for their anti-immigrant stance. Accordingly, this study will examine the interplay between the tightening of Italy's immigration policy and the rise of right-wing populist parties, specifically investigating the underlying reasons for the anti-immigration stance of such parties by analyzing the cultural dilemma and economic crisis. By scrutinizing the origins of right-wing populist anti-immigration claims, this study seeks to uncover the driving factors behind the heightened stringency of immigration policies in countries like Italy in the wake of the rightward shift in European politics.

Political Legitimation and Charismatic Routinization of Modi ‘Wave’ in India

Modi ‘Wave’ is a political phenomenon that describes a strong hegemon (Prime Minister Narendra Modi) who scripts landslide victories in Indian elections based on political charisma and electoral legitimacy. The consecutive victories of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in national elections 2014 and 2019 is a testimony of charismatic routinization of Modi ‘Wave’. ‘There Is No Alternative’ to Modi seems to be ingrained in the conscious psyche of the electorate (will of the majority), which provides successive leadership legitimacy renewals. The political momentum of Modi’s charisma is a discursive dynamic, but it continues to institutionalize right-wing ideology and expand saffron electoral footprints in India.

Platforming populism: the services transition, precarious urbanization, and digital platforms in the rise of illiberal populism in the Philippines

Abstract Existing research on the adverse impact of digital platforms on democratic politics has generally focussed on supply side factors underlying illiberal populism. Yet by reinforcing a services-led growth model of capitalism in the developing world, the platform economy has also been implicated on the demand-side of the global populist upsurge by fostering new insecure classes as well as precarious urbanisation patterns. Through a case study of the rise of Rodrigo Duterte in the Philippines’ 2016 elections, we show how our theoretical argument has unfolded in one of the most well-known cases of illiberal populism within the Global South. Even while waging unprecedented disinformation campaigns on social media, the political opportunity structure underlying Duterte’s electoral victory in 2016 was fostered by the growth of ‘rising yet insecure’ classes linked to the Philippines’ services and platform economy, as well as the socio-spatial legacies of the country’s experience of premature deindustrialisation.

Lula's Return and the Legacy of Destruction

Lula's electoral victory may have reinvigorated the Brazilian left, but the destruction wrought by ultraconservative ex-president Jair Bolsonaro presents a monumental task for the new government. Rosa Marques and Paulo Nakatani review the challenges Lula has faced with an eye to those still to come.

The role of Political Opposition in the Era of Turkish Justice and Development Party

The political opposition in Turkey, since the founding of the Turkish Republic, has faced a real crisis, as it has not been able to achieve its goals and perform its functions in the required manner, due to the deep-rooted cultural and historical orientation among members of Turkish society, which is a lack of criticism of the authority and the government. Since 2002, with the arrival of the Justice and Development Party to power, the political opposition has not succeeded in changing the ruling party since it came to power until now, despite resorting to taking many pressure means such as organizing peaceful demonstrations, criticizing the government’s policies in Parliament, and exploiting the poor economic and financial conditions. And criticizing the presence of Syrian and Afghan refugees in Turkey. But with the change of the country’s political system and the start of the new presidential system since 2018, a clear change appeared in the mechanism of action of the opposition parties, according to this new system, the need to form electoral coalitions in order to reach power due to the inability of political parties to obtain percentages that guarantee them Winning the presidential and parliamentary elections. In addition, the opposition parties were able to achieve an important victory in the local elections that took place in 2019, as the opposition parties' candidates won the presidency of major municipalities such as Istanbul and Ankara. This step encouraged the opposition forces to work to unify their discourse and increase the percentage of coordination among them. In light of these developments, the Six-Party Table was formed by six opposition parties. Despite all these developments and the important steps taken by the opposition parties, the capabilities and means in the hands of the Justice and Development Party and its ally, in addition to the charisma of the personality of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, must be taken into consideration in the upcoming elections.

The Pink Tide and Income Inequality in Latin America

ABSTRACTLatin American countries experienced a significant reduction in income inequality at the turn of the twenty-first century. From the early 2000s to around 2012, the average Gini coefficient fell from 0.51 to 0.47. The period of falling inequality coincided with leftist presidential candidates achieving electoral victories across the region: by 2009, 11 of the 17 countries had a leftist president—the so-called Pink Tide. Using a difference-in-differences design, a range of econometric models, inequality measurements, and samples, this study finds evidence that leftist governments lowered income inequality faster than non-leftist regimes, increasing the income share captured by the first 7 deciles at the expense of the top 10 percent. The analysis suggests that this reduction was achieved by increasing social pensions, minimum wages, and tax revenue.

The Philippines in 2022

In 2022, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the son and namesake of the late dictator, won a landslide victory in the presidential election after campaigning largely on nostalgia for the Philippines’ authoritarian past and perceived former greatness. The country was finally able to reopen from COVID-19 lockdowns after enduring a surge in the Omicron variant in the earlier months of the year. Global food and energy inflation, caused by excessive fiscal spending and monetary easing adopted during the pandemic, in addition to the aftershock of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has led to an unprecedented food crisis in the Philippines that has been particularly difficult for the poor. In terms of foreign policy, Marcos Jr.’s arrival marked a return to more conventional diplomatic interactions with Washington at a time of increasing tension between the United States and China.