Abstract The skill of the limited-area fine-mesh (LFM) model in making 24-h areal quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) of ⩾ 0.5 in. (12.7 mm) is evaluated and analyzed for two warm seasons; 1982 and 1983. Differences in skill between the eastern and western United States are investigated and the impact of updated initial conditions is explored. The skill in predicting precipitation from cyclonic versus mesoscale systems is also examined. It is found that the model skill changed drastically from the summers of 1982 to 1983. Skill levels for 1982 were about 25% to 35%. In 1983, they dropped to an average value of less than 10% and often to zero on a daily basis. The precipitous drop in skill appears to be the result of changes made in key model threshold parameters. These parameters include grid-resolvable saturation criterion and convective cloud base boost. The introduction of constraints on convective precipitation and the vertical advection of moisture also appear to have reduced model skill. A co...