BackgroundThe long-term risk of suicide after a first episode of psychosis is unknown, because previous studies have often been based on prevalence cohorts, have been biased to more severely ill, hospitalised patients, have extrapolated from a short follow-up time, and have made a distinction between schizophrenia and other psychoses. The aim of this study was to determine the epidemiology of suicide in a clinically representative, retrospective inception cohort of patients with a first episode of psychosis. MethodsAll 2723 patients who presented for the first time to secondary care services with psychosis in three defined geographical catchment areas in London (1965–2004, n=2056), Nottingham (1997–1999, n=203), and Dumfries and Galloway (1979–1998, n=464) were traced after a mean follow-up of 11·5 years. The main outcome measure was number of deaths by suicide and open verdicts according to International Classification of Diseases, editions 7–10. FindingsCase fatality from suicide was considerably lower than expected from previous studies: 1·9% (53/2723); proportionate mortality was 11·9% (53/444). Although the rate of suicide was highest in the first year after presentation, risk persisted late into follow-up, with median time to suicide being 5·6 years. Suicide occurred nearly 12 times more than expected from the general population of England and Wales (standardised mortality ratio 11·65, 95%CI 8·73–15·24), and 49 of the 53 suicides were excess deaths. Even a decade after first presentation, suicide risk remained almost four times higher than in the general population (3·92, 95%CI 2·22–6.89), a time when there may be less intense clinical monitoring of risk. InterpretationThe highest risk of suicide after a psychotic episode occurs soon after presentation, yet clinicians should still be vigilant in assessing risk a decade or more after first contact. The widely held view that 10–15% die from suicide is misleading because it refers to proportionate mortality rather than lifetime risk. Nonetheless, after a first espisode of psychosis, risk of suicide is substantially increased compared with that in the general population. FundingUK Medical Research Council.
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