Disease prognostication can be achieved through the derivation of biologically and clinically integrated prediction models. The present study reports 1, 3 and 5-year disease-free survival (DFS) in patients undergoing right hemicolectomy for curative intent and both derives and validates a pre- and post-operative prediction tool for DFS for prognostication and risk stratification purposes. Consecutive patients undergoing right-sided curative-intent resection for colorectal cancer (2010-2020) in a tertiary care unit were followed-up prospectively for recurrence and survival outcomes. Survival analyses were used to derive pre- and post-operative models predicting 1, 3 and 5-year DFS. Calibration was reported and internal validation was performed using bootstrapping. A total of 822 patients underwent resection and 528 had ≥ 5-year follow-up. The 1, 3 and 5-year DFS rates were 85.6%, 72.5% and 57.6%, respectively. Variables associated with death/recurrence included: increasing age (HR >1.95, p=0.037), male gender (HR 1.62, p<0.001), ASA ≥3 (HR 1.79, p<0.001), low albumin (HR 1.54, p<0.001), T4 stage (HR 2.35, p=0.023), R1 status (HR 1.63, p=0.024),≥4 positive lymph nodes (HR>1.74, p<0.001) and Clavien-Dindo ≥3 (HR 2.83, p<0.001). The pre- and post-operative models contained 9 and 13 demographic, clinical, biochemical, operative and pathological variables, respectively (C-index 0.75 and 0.78, respectively). Excluding demographic, clinical and operative variables significantly reduced the C-index of the pre- (0.62) and post-operative models (0.69). The presented prediction tools for DFS will help clinicians stratify risk, offer appropriate adjuvant treatment and predict long-term survival following curative-intent right-sided colon cancer resection.
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